Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[86 Snyder]

20 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Brees was traded for a 2nd round pick after he looked like a mediocre QB and the Chargers had a chance to draft what appeared to be a clear upgrade. 

 

That's an absurd comparison to Watson.

 

Houston should have put O'Brien on the street immediately last year, when he started going bonkers.

 

He wasnt traded.  He was a free agent coming off a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.  He was coming off his only good year and there were big time questions about his injury.  Miami passed and went with Culpeper instead.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's why the Lions could make sense. We offer them #19, #74 and our 2022 1st round pick.

 

Lions go into 2022 and 2023 with 5 combined 1st round picks.

2022: DET, LAR, WFT

2023: DET, LAR

 

Granted, the LAR/WFT would likely be in the 2nd half of the draft but it would be enticing to them to have that sort of capital to make a future QB move if they want to kick the tires on Goff.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

It wasn’t dominator, he had no dominator, the problem was breakout age. He never broke out. Honestly, how do you evaluate a player that was never used. What were you going to buy his potential on? Character? Being a great gunner. The reason I was anti-McLaurin was simple: he never did anything. There are no examples in the modern NFL of guys w/his profile doing anything. None. It’s one thing if there were tons of markers missed but there weren’t. You seem to bash analytics here but the only selling points were intangibles and athleticism the latter of which you should probably also not care about as it’s far less relevant than breakout age.

 

What McLaurin underlined is that w/mega programs like Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama, elite guys like Josh Jacobs and McLaurin can slip through the cracks and be beat out by inferior players. Rare, but it happens. Sony Michel once split snaps w/Chubb after all.

 

lol, I recall our debates on him, Marquise Brown, Edwards-Helaire, etc. 😀   Ditto I recall how strongly you pushed Josh Rosen as the answer in 2019. I've been right and wrong on players so no harm in getting somethings wrong.  We all do.  It's hard to forget some of yours because you tend to argue with total conviction.  My debate with you when we've had those is it matters to me what these players look like when I watch them. You I recall are mostly all about analytics and mock draft grading from those that you trust.  

 

Naturally, I am not a professional scout.  But heck we all watch football and form our own opinions on players.  It's part of the point as to football discussion here.  When I watched Rosen for example, I saw the text book footwork but at UCLA to my eyes his decision making was atrocious.  He played reckless and didn't have the arm to match IMO.   I saw many missed turnover opportunities in those cases.  The numbers won't show that.   But I saw it and it turned me off because I didn't think he'd get away with that in the NFL.   Sometimes my eyes end up spot on, sometimes they don't.  But I like to give it my best go.  I do factor anaylitics too.  I easily put up the most PFF, Football Outsiders stuff on the board but to me its part of the equation not the whole drill. 

 

Bringing this back to McLaurin I liked what i watched and explained in detail why back in the day.  But if went purely by the numbers like you prefer, he was far from a train wreck.  4.35 speed, very good broad/vertical numbers too.  He had a sick 20 plus YPC.  And 700 yards doesn't exactly suck for a dude that wasn't Haskins' top target.  That's not exactly garbage metrics to work with.  Then you add intangibles through the roof.  Then you add context to how Haskins played and who he liked to target and why.  And you paint a total picture that the demoninator scores alone can't do. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Bacon]

I'd prefer Wilson to Fields, but in theory I prefer either over spending draft capital AND franchise QB money on trading for an established star. The sheer novelty of us drafting a QB that doesn't suck would be priceless.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's why the Lions could make sense. We offer them #19, #74 and our 2022 1st round pick.

And here's what the mock draft just got me in a TDN trades-based mock.

 

1.7: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State

2.51: Jackson Carman, OT Clemson

3.82: Paris Ford, S Pitt

4.123: Amari Rodgers, WR Clemson

5.162: Tarron Jackson, DE Coastal Carolina

 

One pick I would change is Ford in the 3rd. I like him a lot, but I expect we get a veteran prove-it deal in FA.

 

Mindset in going with OT in Round 2 over TE was without a 2022 1st round pick, we need to consider our options beyond Lucas and it'll be hard to fill it without a 1st until 2023. I figure you keep hitting on OTs until you get an OL that works well long-term, and Carman has upside and could slide inside if need be. Gives you Carman and Charles to build around longterm at OT on rookie contracts. A bit of an ancitipatory move. Using the 3rd rounder for a high-cost position would make sense too, but Ford was BPA.

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

He wasnt traded.  He was a free agent coming off a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.  He was coming off his only good year and there were big time questions about his injury.  Miami passed and went with Culpeper instead.

You're right about the trade, but everything else is correct and that just proves my point about trading for a QB with a ton of assets being an awful idea, even further.

[Rufus T Firefly]

9 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I think Matt Ryan has a very difficult contract situation in 2021 for the Falcons to get out of, especially as I believe they are in a bad cap situation too. Whether there is a way out of that for them, not sure.

Trading Ryan isn't difficult for them. The issue for them is they are well over the cap and a lot of their big cap numbers belong to guys on shorter term deals, so they can't just get out of it with simple restructures. They need to do extensions. Then the question, of course, is if you really want to sign extensions and push cap hits into the future on a team that just won 4 games.

 

But trading Ryan would only cost them a net of about 4 mil while getting his 41 mil figure completely off the books for 2022. The biggest downside to moving him, cap wise, is it gives them one less player to restructure. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Chase Young to me is off limits but I'd trade any of the other D lineman and do it

 

 

 

[Darth Tater]

11 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

He wasnt traded.  He was a free agent coming off a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.  He was coming off his only good year and there were big time questions about his injury.  Miami passed and went with Culpeper instead.

His good year was the previous year (2004(.  Arguably his 2003 performance was why they ended up with Rivers.  His 2005 performance was actually pretty mediocre.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Chase Young to me is off limits but I'd trade any of the other D lineman and do it

 

 

 

If we don't take advantage of the youth on the Dline, by trading for a QB, we're going to miss the window, while trading the youth on the Dline for a QB to be a better team. 

 

It makes no sense. The Dline, all of it, is the only unit close to above average on our team, so dismantling it completely dismisses the point of getting the QB.

[Est.1974]

6 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Trading Ryan isn't difficult for them. The issue for them is they are well over the cap and a lot of their big cap numbers belong to guys on shorter term deals, so they can't just get out of it with simple restructures. They need to do extensions. Then the question, of course, is if you really want to sign extensions and push cap hits into the future on a team that just won 4 games.

 

But trading Ryan would only cost them a net of about 4 mil while getting his 41 mil figure completely off the books for 2022. The biggest downside to moving him, cap wise, is it gives them one less player to restructure. 

Agree. They end up with a 44mil dead cap, one less salary to restructure and still need to find a load more space through restructures. Based on their higher salaries players, it looked a mess to me.

[Burgundy Yoda]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Chase Young to me is off limits but I'd trade any of the other D lineman and do it

 

 

 

 

That's essentially 5 first rounders for Deshaun Watson. Chase Young is worth at least two first round picks at this stage. He's the DROY and has All-Pro written all over him, once 1st round picks prove that they're good players in their rookie seasons, their value doubles at minimum. 

 

No way in hell I do this. 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

 

That's essentially 5 first rounders for Deshaun Watson. Chase Young is worth at least two first round picks at this stage. He's the DROY and has All-Pro written all over him, once 1st round picks prove that they're good players in their rookie seasons, their value doubles at minimum. 

 

No way in hell I do this. 

It’s literal insanity.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

If we don't take advantage of the youth on the Dline, by trading for a QB, we're going to miss the window, while trading the youth on the Dline for a QB to be a better team. 

 

It makes no sense. The Dline, all of it, is the only unit close to above average on our team, so dismantling it completely dismisses the point of getting the QB.

 

I get the point but one guy especially if its not Chase won't kill the strength.  Count me in the camp that we will lose one of these guys eventually anyway.   I am not for trading two guys and I am not for trading Chase.  We can lose whomever that is for nothing like we will this year for Kerrigan or actually use a player as an asset.  It's not my preferred method but for Watson, i'd do it.

 

But in your shoes, i wouldn't sweat it.  I think there is a better chance me or you are the QB this coming season than Watson. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Darrell Green Fan]

15 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Trading Ryan isn't difficult for them. The issue for them is they are well over the cap and a lot of their big cap numbers belong to guys on shorter term deals, so they can't just get out of it with simple restructures. They need to do extensions. Then the question, of course, is if you really want to sign extensions and push cap hits into the future on a team that just won 4 games.

 

But trading Ryan would only cost them a net of about 4 mil while getting his 41 mil figure completely off the books for 2022. The biggest downside to moving him, cap wise, is it gives them one less player to restructure. 

 

I was cool with Stafford. Fans claiming this was another over the hill retread were wrong, he has plenty left. But this idea of Matt Ryan, now that smells of another Donovan McNabb.  

[86 Snyder]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get the point but one guy especially if its not Chase won't kill the strength.  Count me in the camp that we will lose one of these guys eventually anyway.   I am not for trading two guys and I am not for trading Chase. 

 

3 1sts, Landon Collins, and one of Sweat/Allen/Payne.

 

Make it happen.

[Anselmheifer]

7 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

 

That's essentially 5 first rounders for Deshaun Watson. Chase Young is worth at least two first round picks at this stage. He's the DROY and has All-Pro written all over him, once 1st round picks prove that they're good players in their rookie seasons, their value doubles at minimum. 

 

No way in hell I do this. 

I may well trade five 1sts for him, but not Chase Young and three 1sts.

 

I’d rather not include Sweat. But, mark my words, if we trade for him, I expect Sweat to be included. Outside of Chase, Sweat is probably our most valuable defensive player in a trade. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[redskinss]

4 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

 

That's essentially 5 first rounders for Deshaun Watson. Chase Young is worth at least two first round picks at this stage. He's the DROY and has All-Pro written all over him, once 1st round picks prove that they're good players in their rookie seasons, their value doubles at minimum. 

 

No way in hell I do this. 

And you also gotta ask, if chase young is on the table then why didn't we just draft Tua or Herbert last year and save the 3 extra first round picks?

Yes I know Watson is the proven commodity but 3 first round picks and defensive rookie of the year for anybody is crazy.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I agree with the thought that as painful as it will be trading one of the young DL to get a QB would be a smart play. We CAN'T resign them all, we all know that some will be gone in a few years anyway. With that said the one guy they can't trade is Chase Young and I don't see that ever happening. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

3 1sts, Landon Collins, and one of Sweat/Allen/Payne.

 

Make it happen.

 

I don't get the Landon Collin stuff, why would they want him?  overpaid SS coming off of a major injury

1 minute ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I agree with the thought that as painful as it will be trading one of the young DL to get a QB would be a smart play. We CAN'T resign them all, we all know that some will be gone in a few years anyway. With that said the one guy they can't trade is Chase Young and I don't see that ever happening. 

 

I am in the same place.  Sweat is also borderline untradeable to me.   I'd trade Payne though in a heartbeat in that package.  

Edited February 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Lol, I forgot to even mention Sweat. This truly is hilarious, we have four elite DL's acquired with first round draft capital AND an elite DL acquired with day 3 draft capital on a legit starter contract now. It's an absolute no brainer to trade one of these guys, we just need to be smart in establish value and not sell cheaply (if it does cost that to acquire firsts). Oh and I'd love to pawn off the Landon Collins deal as one of the defensive pieces, I'd do that in a second, needles to say. 

So, this goes with this whole thing about us not being able to afford to keep everyone going forward and so we have to "go for it" now. At some point you make choices. People don't want to move anyone but they think we have a short window because they are all going to be expensive. Teams can afford multiple big contracts and still be title contenders, but you have to be smart about it.

 

If the rumor that the team wants to give $17 million per year to our 4th (or maybe 5th) best DL is true, then the team's short window could really become a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

[Mr. Sinister]

Take a chance on Heinecke/Allen. Watson is a suicide mission.

[Burgundy Yoda]

4 minutes ago, redskinss said:

And you also gotta ask, if chase young is on the table then why didn't we just draft Tua or Herbert last year and save the 3 extra first round picks?

Yes I know Watson is the proven commodity but 3 first round picks and defensive rookie of the year for anybody is crazy.

 

He's not on the table, PFF is just throwing hypothetical trades out there to get reactions, we all know he's not on the table. Chase Young is a TEAM leader, not just the leader of our defense. Trading him would be an awful look for the organization, you can't draft a guy who is seemingly a near perfect prospect, and then trade him after he has a very good rookie year. There has to be players your organization sticks by and says "these are my guys, and they're off the table completely". 

[Rufus T Firefly]

17 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Agree. They end up with a 44mil dead cap, one less salary to restructure and still need to find a load more space through restructures. Based on their higher salaries players, it looked a mess to me.

The 44 mil is irrelevant, the net hit would be about 4, and that's the number that matters. Their cap is a bit of a mess either way, but moving Ryan is easily doable and wise fi they are committed to rebuild (I don't know if they are).

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

leading with the Darnold photo, the WP knows how to make me cringe 😀

Trade for a veteran

Start with Deshaun Watson. The question is whether Washington is willing to match an unprecedented situation — a top-tier quarterback available at 25 — with an unprecedented offer. If so, considering the Stafford deal, the Houston Texans could expect a return of at least four high draft picks and a player. It’s possible competition drives the price even higher, and it’s also possible Houston doesn’t trade him. General Manager Nick Caserio told reporters he has “zero interest” in moving on from Watson, who requested a trade after the Texans offered to give him input into their organizational overhaul this offseason but then didn’t follow through.

 

Washington also has lower-tier trade options. It could target a young quarterback whose current team wants to start fresh (Sam Darnold, Drew Lock) or a veteran whose contract will expire (Marcus Mariota) or has no guaranteed money after 2021 (Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan). The most attractive option could be Darnold if Washington believes the New York Jets’ dysfunction has prevented the former No. 3 overall pick from reaching his ceiling and if the Jets’ front office decides it wants to use the second overall pick this year on a top prospect such as Zach Wilson or Justin Fields.

 

Washington could also pursue Ryan, a steady veteran similar to Alex Smith without the injury concerns, or Mariota, a one-season stopgap. Washington’s new executive vice president of football/player personnel, Marty Hurney, was the Carolina Panthers general manager who signed Bridgewater to a three-year, $63 million deal last year, and in a Jan. 22 news conference, new Carolina GM Scott Fitterer didn’t commit to Bridgewater.

 

If the Las Vegas Raiders or San Francisco 49ers decide to trade Carr or Garoppolo, Washington must consider whether it believes either player meets the minimum threshold to win a Super Bowl. This question has dogged Garoppolo since last season, when the 49ers lost Super Bowl LIV with an elite play caller, the NFL’s second-best defense and an offense predicated on a superb running game that gave the quarterback quick throws off play-action.

 

Sign a veteran free agent

This thin pool will be headlined by Dak Prescott — if the Dallas Cowboys don’t retain him with a contract extension or the franchise tag (again). On the open market, Prescott, 27, would probably be paid in the mid-$30 million per year range despite the uncertainty of his return from a severe ankle injury. This is a sizable portion of the salary cap to devote to one player, about 15 or 20 percent, but before his season-ending injury in Week 5, Prescott proved he was one of the league’s better quarterbacks, averaging a record 371.2 passing yards per game.

 

The second tier of free agents fit into one of two categories. There are the former starters who were unseated recently (Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor), and the early 30s stopgaps who turned in uneven seasons (Cam Newton, Andy Dalton). Winston is perhaps the most intriguing option; the 27-year-old spent this past year learning from Drew Brees with the New Orleans Saints. But after Brees retires and the quarterback carousel continues to spin, the Saints could opt to retain Winston.

The wild card is Newton. The No. 1 overall pick in 2011 was the first player Rivera drafted with Carolina, and the two seem to have a good relationship. But this past year in New England, the 31-year-old Newton looked like a limited version of his former MVP self following shoulder, knee and foot injuries. He completed 65.8 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions while rushing for 592 yards and 12 touchdowns. If anyone knows whether Newton can build back close to what he once was or whether he is truly on the downslope of his career, it should be Rivera.

 

The downside of Washington’s playoff run this past season was the loss of a top-10 draft pick. The team fell to No. 19 when it defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 and clinched the NFC East title. And now it faces longer odds to find an immediate starter in the draft.

Of the 19 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2015, only nine have winning records as starters, and of those, seven were selected in the top 10. To narrow the pool further, only seven first-round quarterbacks in that span have won a playoff game and none of them did it as a rookie. Even Patrick Mahomes, the reigning NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP, sat for nearly the entirety of his rookie season with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2017.

 

This year is further complicated for all teams because of the coronavirus, which has limited face time between prospects and NFL teams, and prompted some players to opt out of the 2020 college football season. But the projected top-five quarterbacks, at least for now, are widely regarded as Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, BYU’s Wilson, Ohio State’s Fields, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Alabama’s Mac Jones.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise