Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[86 Snyder]

38 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Lets trade 5 years of talent for a QB with 2 ACL surgeries that went 4-12 last year. Brilliant. 

 

We're not in the Watson talks thank god. That's a team ruining move.

 

Thank god the fans don't make these decisions, and hope that Snyder doesn't either. 

 

Yeah well, hes also one of the very best quarterbacks in the entire league.  Id argue as good as anyone not named Mahomes and he isnt far off from him either.  You can have your opinion but you are missing how elite Watson actually is.

20 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

They will surely look into why we want to trade Landon Collins and probably say "wow, that Kamren Curl guy is a stud, what about him?". Even the dumbest organization would do that lol. 

 

B.O.B also traded Hopkins for the corpse of David Johnson and no one ducktapped him to a chair.  Its worth checking on.

[The Consigliere]

45 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

lol, I recall our debates on him, Marquise Brown, Edwards-Helaire, etc. 😀   Ditto I recall how strongly you pushed Josh Rosen as the answer in 2019. I've been right and wrong on players so no harm in getting somethings wrong.  We all do.  It's hard to forget some of yours because you tend to argue with total conviction.  My debate with you when we've had those is it matters to me what these players look like when I watch them. You I recall are mostly all about analytics and mock draft grading from those that you trust.  

 

Naturally, I am not a professional scout.  But heck we all watch football and form our own opinions on players.  It's part of the point as to football discussion here.  When I watched Rosen for example, I saw the text book footwork but at UCLA to my eyes his decision making was atrocious.  He played reckless and didn't have the arm to match IMO.   I saw many missed turnover opportunities in those cases.  The numbers won't show that.   But I saw it and it turned me off because I didn't think he'd get away with that in the NFL.   Sometimes my eyes end up spot on, sometimes they don't.  But I like to give it my best go.  I do factor anaylitics too.  I easily put up the most PFF, Football Outsiders stuff on the board but to me its part of the equation not the whole drill. 

 

Bringing this back to McLaurin I liked what i watched and explained in detail why back in the day.  But if went purely by the numbers like you prefer, he was far from a train wreck.  4.35 speed, very good broad/vertical numbers too.  He had a sick 20 plus YPC.  And 700 yards doesn't exactly suck for a dude that wasn't Haskins' top target.  That's not exactly garbage metrics to work with.  Then you add intangibles through the roof.  Then you add context to how Haskins played and who he liked to target and why.  And you paint a total picture that the demoninator scores alone can't do. 

I am never one to hide my misses lol. You won't see me doing that. I once traded a top 6 dynasty rookie pick for the combo of Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, and Cameron Meredith reasoning (all 3 of them can't miss).

 

I am and have always been a huge Josh Rosen fan, in terms of his upside. But that ship has sailed, he may just be a bust, or he may be a guy who landed in the absolute worst case scenario. I tend to think it's either the latter or a combo, but I think it's pure lunacy to argue that say a Josh Rosen, and Patrick Mahomes had equivalent opportunities to succeed or fail on their own terms. Rosen got drafted by a totally incompetent F.O. and a coaching staff that was flat out bottom of the barrell and was traded to be a stop gap for a team while they set about deliberately tanking for Tua (they were Jacksonville/NYJ tanking for Lawrence, before Lawrence). So what do you do there? If Rosen is elite, he probably figures out a way to make it work anyway, like guys like Watson, and Kyler, and Herbert, and Mahomes did, but every one of those guys were drafted into offenses designed to utilize their strengths with plenty of assets to use, Rosen had none of that, so again, I see both sides.

 

Here's my biggest hits courtesy of Dynasty since '15:

Nailed:

All the RB's of the '17 class (I had them: McCaffrey, Mixon, Cook, Fournette, Hunt, Kamara as my top guys, then I loved Donte Foreman, Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones)

Nailed most of the elite WR's of '17, '18, '19 and '20

Nailed Miles Sanders as the best RB of '19

Nailed the rankings of the RB's for the most part in '20:

My predraft rankings were:

1A: Taylor

1B: Swift

3.Dobbins

4.Akers

5.CEH

6. Gibson

 

Nailed TE rankings across the most recent classes in terms of what to dip into. 

 

My biggest misses:

'16: Swung and missed wildly  like a near sighted 4 year old with the entire '16 WR class.

'17: I regret not having Hunt and Kamara higher though I liked both infinitely more than our pick. 

"17: I was pretty off on Corey Davis. I didn't like Ross but thought he was worth a day 2 pick.  Thought Mike Williams was a reach though I like him well enough.

'18: Was kind of a mess of an evaluation at RB, I still believe in most of my eval except Michel, based on my dynasty drafting, my eval was:

1.Barkley

2A. Guice

2B. Chubb

4. Penny

5. Michel

6. Kerryon

 

I had no idea Guice had all that baggage, I was just flat out wrong about Michel, and Kerryon is much better than I thought (I would love to get him as a spell back for Gibson, I think he's a legit starter, and Detroit just got sick of his injuries). 

 

hmmm, I probably shouldn't even do it this way, but anyway

 

I also totally botched the '18 QB class:

1.Baker

2.Darnold

2B Rosen

4. Josh Allen-who I totally hated (his lack of accuracy made him absolutely Do Not Draft for me). 

 

Interesting, in '17 I liked Mahomes, was worried about Watson's velocity test (the last time I'll ever worry about that, I'll just take tape grinders views of arm strength from now on), and didn't like Trubisky. 

 

In '19 I hated Jones and thought Haskins was fine as long as we didnt trade up for him. 

 

In '20 I had them

 

1.Burrow

1B Tua

3. Herbert

 

I didn't see Herbert doing this at all. 

 

But yeah, historically the proof is in my rookie drafts, I'm sketchy at QB, but I tend to nail RB and WR. You've got me on McLaurin, I whiffed badly, but I have no issue with good process whiffs as long as you learn something from them (for me, it's that great talents can be hidden at schools like Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia and Alabama where they have so many 5 star guys that mental make up, and temperament or situation can result in elite players only proving it after the next jump up to the NFL level: see Jacobs, see McLaurin, see Chubb having to split carries with vastly inferior Michel etc. However that was also a caveat that was used to elevate Ruggs last year, and Ruggs was horrific, and as I and I imagine nearly everyone hear called on draft night, taking Ruggs over Lamb and Jeudy was pure 1000% idioicy. As right as I was about that though, I had no zero idea, zero, that Justin Jefferson would be Randy Moss 2.0 NEVER SAW THAT COMING, I had freaking Reagor ahead of him. In one rookie draft I was incensed that Reagor, Lamb and Jeudy were all gone, and I HAD to take Jefferson and I spent july and august trying to pawn him off on anyone. No bites LOL!. Sometimes stupidity pays off when everyone else is just as stupid. 

 

As for the conviction angle, I guess I am ----ty with tone, because it's not so much 100% confidence, it's just total confidence in the process, I believe absolutely in the process. If the process misses, if you can reevaluate it, see if it failed for a reason, good, that's a net positive, you fix a flaw, and if it was good process, and the hit was an outlier (which is mostly McLaurin, but I also think he showed a flaw in the process) than you can take it that way too.

 

One of my points with McLaurin was that he has no successful comps, because nobody has really ever done what he's done (oddly, one of the few guys with a slightly similar profile was Tyreek Hill of all people, as well as Michael Thomas, kind of amusing that 2 of the 8 outliers out of the top 50 WR's over the last several years were 2 of the best 5 guys), and that secondly, guys with late breakout age's as WR's historically in the modern game account for basically about 8-14% or so of the typical annual top 50 WR's in the league. 

 

Now take that for what it means. It doesn't mean it never happens, it just means that at any given time across the last decade or so, only about 1 out of ever 6.5-8 WR's who've become successful have such a profile marker, while basically 5.5 to 7 out of every 8 successful WR's do not. In a case like that, do you want to bet on the guy holding the 85-92% chance of being right, or the guy with the 8-14% chance. You will hit with the latter guy sometimes, but you'll hit far more often with the former option. It's about probabilities and correlation. In a game where at best you're hitting 50% of the time (and that's just with first rounders) it's best to play the odds that reduce your risk of taking a bust, and wasting cap/draft capital assets in as much as possible, and when there are ways of doing that, you should do so. It's why I want no part of Najee Harris (too old, too short of a likely career), it's why I draft TE's who blow up the athletic drills, and especially the 40 (shows more correlation to future success than almost anything much like RB's who run a 4.5 or faster and definitely don't run 4.66 or slower), it's why WR's drills don't seem to matter much unless they also have nice breakout age, and to a lesser extent a good dominator/market share etc. 

 

Everything's about finding micro edge's to me. There are ways you can ramp up risk, and ways you can mitigate it, and I'm always trying to do the latter. My confidence is in the process itself and it's served me well generally speaking though there's no doubt I miss badly sometimes (I sure would like to have a lot more of Aiyuk for instance), but I do love that while everyone was picking the RB 7 or RB 8 I was gobbling up all the Shenault, Higgins, and Mims I could find. 

 

Oh and btw, it's not dominator, again, it's breakout age. 

 

And I get why people value tape, and I get that sometimes you'll see something I wont, but in the end I view QB eval as mostly witchcraft anyway, there aren't any analytics that are terribly helpful with QB eval. It's much more helpful with RB's and WR's and TE's. 

 

 

 

[CommDownMan]

59 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get the point but one guy especially if its not Chase won't kill the strength.  Count me in the camp that we will lose one of these guys eventually anyway.   I am not for trading two guys and I am not for trading Chase.  We can lose whomever that is for nothing like we will this year for Kerrigan or actually use a player as an asset.  It's not my preferred method but for Watson, i'd do it.

 

But in your shoes, i wouldn't sweat it.  I think there is a better chance me or you are the QB this coming season than Watson. 

 

If they choose Sweat as the guy they could resign Kerrigan and get a ~3/4 rounder to do a 70/30.  I'd hate giving up Sweat but that could be a solution.

[Skinsinparadise]

A dude I wouldn't die on the hill for him but among the mostly "meh" market as to veterans he might be my favorite after Derek Carr, 

 

 

 

[CommDownMan]

23 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I wouldn't want to make a Ryan move, though if we were committed to this "two/three year window, got to go for it" mentality then a deal with Atlanta makes some sense. 

 

But I can't believe for a second that Atlanta has to pay somebody to take Ryan off their hands. That makes no sense. He's still a good to very good QB, depending on how much last year's struggles were because of the team and coaching around him (i'm pretty sure some of it was).

Ryan is better than Brock, so I don't see it quite the same either.

 

In that case Brock and a 2nd for a 3rd.  I could see based on their cap situation, the need for rebuild and position to draft the next QB, that something like a 2nd for Ryan and a 4th could work.  How they clear space is the main thing here, and they need to find creative ways.  Maybe it doesn't work, but that is what I'd aim for if he is the target.

[Rskins91]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A dude I wouldn't die on the hill for him but among the mostly "meh" market as to veterans he might be my favorite after Derek Carr, 

 

 

 

He’s under contract for one more year in Oakland. I’d consider a 4th round more than fair value if we trade for Mariota. Prefer a 5th. 

[86 Snyder]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A dude I wouldn't die on the hill for him but among the mostly "meh" market as to veterans he might be my favorite after Derek Carr, 

 

 

 

 

I wish these guys would stop breaking down clips of Mariota with the Raiders.  There is 5 years worth of tape with Titans.  Hes not some new guy based on *1 game* with LV.

[PartyPosse]

If we can get Mariota for very little then that would be my top priority.

[Koolblue13]

13 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

Yeah well, hes also one of the very best quarterbacks in the entire league.  Id argue as good as anyone not named Mahomes and he isnt far off from him either.  You can have your opinion but you are missing how elite Watson actually is.

 

B.O.B also traded Hopkins for the corpse of David Johnson and no one ducktapped him to a chair.  Its worth checking on.

I've never said anything about him not being an elite QB. Not once.

[RWJ]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A dude I wouldn't die on the hill for him but among the mostly "meh" market as to veterans he might be my favorite after Derek Carr, 

 

 

 

I think the Raiders like him more too.  I think they would rather dump Carr's salary and keep Mariota.

Edited February 2, 2021 by RWJ

[86 Snyder]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I've never said anything about him not being an elite QB. Not once.

 

Then you dont want to make a move for an elite QB- which is bonkers- and are casting you arguement in the most egregiously negative way possible.  

[Rufus T Firefly]

8 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

Ryan is better than Brock, so I don't see it quite the same either.

 

In that case Brock and a 2nd for a 3rd.  I could see based on their cap situation, the need for rebuild and position to draft the next QB, that something like a 2nd for Ryan and a 4th could work.  How they clear space is the main thing here, and they need to find creative ways.  Maybe it doesn't work, but that is what I'd aim for if he is the target.

It was a 2 and a 6 for a 4th to take Osweiler. That was to save $16 mil. With Ryan, the only thing Atlanta would be saving is the 5.5 mil guaranteed for 2012 (the rest they could save by releasing him). And Osweiler was a disaster in Houston. 

 

Comparing the situations is beyond silly. 

[Koolblue13]

Just now, 86 Snyder said:

 

Then you dont want to make a move for an elite QB- which is bonkers- and are casting you arguement in the most egregiously negative way possible.  

I don't want to over pay and put all our eggs in one basket. Especially a basket with 2 ACL tears.

 

And yes, like I've said, selling the farm and hindering our only strength to get that QB makes no sense to me. I think it's absurd.

[Burgundy Yoda]

If Turner can tailor the offense to Mariota's skillset I can see that being a steal, his talent is undeniable. Consistency has always been his biggest issue. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[Koolblue13]

I'm down with Mariota or Carr.

[CommDownMan]

7 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

It was a 2 and a 6 for a 4th to take Osweiler. That was to save $16 mil. With Ryan, the only thing Atlanta would be saving is the 5.5 mil guaranteed for 2012 (the rest they could save by releasing him). And Osweiler was a disaster in Houston. 

 

Comparing the situations is beyond silly. 

 

Yeah, I meant 4th, but clearly missed (and I used below which didn't mention 6th).  I still think they try to get something for him and I don't think the value is Stafford level high.  Either way, i was agreeing they won't pay picks to save the extra 5 mill.  The pick given in my scenario was higher going to Atl.

 

https://bloggingdirty.com/2021/01/06/matt-ryan-contract-trade/

 

"During the 2017 NFL offseason, the Houston Texans dumped Osweiler’s contract to the Cleveland Browns but also give up a second-round pick. The only compensation the Texans received in return is a fourth-round pick and cap space."

Edited February 2, 2021 by jsharrin55

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Yeah, I meant 4th, but clearly missed (and I used below which didn't mention 6th).  I still think they try to get something for him and I don't think the value is Stafford level high.  Either way, i was agreeing they won't pay picks to save the extra 5 mill.  The pick given in my scenario was higher going to Atl.

 

https://bloggingdirty.com/2021/01/06/matt-ryan-contract-trade/

 

"During the 2017 NFL offseason, the Houston Texans dumped Osweiler’s contract to the Cleveland Browns but also give up a second-round pick. The only compensation the Texans received in return is a fourth-round pick and cap space."

To be clear, I wasn't criticizing you for comparing the situations, I was referring to the quote that SIP posted earlier suggesting the same kind of deal. The only relevance to your post that I quoted was the small correction on the Osweiler trade details. 

[drowland]

Is it 2015?  Are we really breaking down Marcus Mariota film?

[Burgundy Yoda]

5 minutes ago, drowland said:

Is it 2015?  Are we really breaking down Marcus Mariota film?

Honestly, Tennessee did a terrible job at developing an offense around Mariota's skillset. Hes still only 27 and seems to fit what Rivera and Co. are looking for. Imagine keeping our picks and then being able to draft Kyle Pitts or Jaylen Waddle to give him some more weapons. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[redskins4ever28]

For the people negative on Watson, have you watched many of his games THIS year? He had NO ONE to throw to. Hopkins was gone, and fuller was suspended Over 1/3 of the season. He had NO running game either. By the way he had no defense as well. He still somehow put up 70% completion, almost 5k yards(led the league in passing yards by the way) and 35tds 7 ints? I may be wrong on td/int ratio. Here’s the thing though, if you watched a lot of his game’s like I did(my son loves Watson. Other then chase young and McLaurin Watson is his favorite player), then you would see that he made chicken salad out of chicken sh*t every single series. I mean it was just astonishing to watch. The other thing is, he’s not some tool bag that’s an ego maniac and doesn’t work hard, Texans forums fans that are insiders all seem to say Watson is one of, if not one then the, hardest working guy in the team. And how he is just a magnificent leader.  Would you trade a bunch of first rounders for mahomes? Would you believe me if I told you that I think mahomes is helped out tremendously by Andy Reid (a guy who made Kevin kolb look like a pro bowler and got a 2nd round pick for him), and made Mcnabb look almost hall of fame worthy. He’s also helped by Hill and Kelce and co. Who is Watson helped out by? If you switched Watson and mahomes teams right now, Watson would have even better numbers. And mahomes I guarantee you would look almost pedestrian. Watson’s acl injuries are scary of course, but at the same time, he’s 25, and doesn’t seem like they’ve slowed him down at all

[86 Snyder]

18 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm down with Mariota or Carr.

 

No interest in the 26 year old top 3 QB.

 

DTF for a flame out failed first rounder and a guy waterboarding for his job every year.

 

Got it.

[Burgundy Yoda]

2 minutes ago, redskins4ever28 said:

For the people negative on Watson, have you watched many of his games THIS year? He had NO ONE to throw to. Hopkins was gone, and fuller was suspended Over 1/3 of the season. He had NO running game either. By the way he had no defense as well. He still somehow put up 70% completion, almost 5k yards(led the league in passing yards by the way) and 35tds 7 ints? I may be wrong on td/int ratio. Here’s the thing though, if you watched a lot of his game’s like I did(my son loves Watson. Other then chase young and McLaurin Watson is his favorite player), then you would see that he made chicken salad out of chicken sh*t every single series. I mean it was just astonishing to watch. The other thing is, he’s not some tool bag that’s an ego maniac and doesn’t work hard, Texans forums fans that are insiders all seem to say Watson is one of, if not one then the, hardest working guy in the team. And how he is just a magnificent leader.  Would you trade a bunch of first rounders for mahomes? Would you believe me if I told you that I think mahomes is helped out tremendously by Andy Reid (a guy who made Kevin kolb look like a pro bowler and got a 2nd round pick for him), and made Mcnabb look almost hall of fame worthy. He’s also helped by Hill and Kelce and co. Who is Watson helped out by? If you switched Watson and mahomes teams right now, Watson would have even better numbers. And mahomes I guarantee you would look almost pedestrian. Watson’s acl injuries are scary of course, but at the same time, he’s 25, and doesn’t seem like they’ve slowed him down at all

We don't have the ammunition for Watson. 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

No interest in the 26 year old top 3 QB.

 

DTF for a flame out failed first rounder and a guy waterboarding for his job every year.

 

Got it.

Right. Because cost which is what I've been talking about, means nothing. 

 

You can't sacrifice the team to trade for a QB. 

 

Of course I'm sure just having Watson on our roster would make us a playoff team like the Texans this year, right? 

 

If the cost was rational, yes I'd trade for Watson. You are the only one making that bull**** up to prove some stupid ****ing point.

[redskins4ever28]

3 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

We don't have the ammunition for Watson. 

I feel like we do for what they are asking. Aren’t they asking for 2 firsts and 2 defensive players? And to be honest, I feel like they won’t get the top dollar from any team and since Watson seems like he’s done there we can get him for a little less. Say we offer 2 firsts and Payne or Allen for Watson, this is an absolute steal.

 

Edit:

the Mariota talk  scares me. The guy is average at best. If we don’t get Watson or feel there’s a hero in the draft then we just should roll with heiniche. But who knows what can happen. Heck Rodgers might finally tell Green Bay to F off and then that’s a whole new tornado

Edited February 2, 2021 by redskins4ever28

[Burgundy Yoda]

8 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

No interest in the 26 year old top 3 QB.

 

DTF for a flame out failed first rounder and a guy waterboarding for his job every year.

 

Got it.

Except when you consider the costs to acquire the players... 2 1st rounders, 2 2nd rounders, Montez Sweat and Kamren Curl vs. Maybe a 4th rounder. 

 

Guarantee they ask for Chase Young if we call. We have no shot at Watson, zilch. Also consider that those could be the demands for the Jets and Dolphins, we would have to pay even more. That was their demands at minimum.

3 minutes ago, redskins4ever28 said:

I feel like we do for what they are asking. Aren’t they asking for 2 firsts and 2 defensive players? And to be honest, I feel like they won’t get the top dollar from any team and since Watson seems like he’s done there we can get him for a little less. Say we offer 2 firsts and Payne or Allen for Watson, this is an absolute steal 

Those could be the demands for the Jets or Dolpins. Their 1st rounders are MUCH more valuable than ours is. I'm guessing we would have to pay more. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda