Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[kingdaddy]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I didn't watch a lot of his play this year either. I do know wherever Fitz goes, he takes over the locker room, they love him. Sometimes that has made it hard on the young QB to get to take his time and learn on the field. Fitz is always in the midst of QB controversies. He is great leader who is streaky on the field. When he is hot, he is hot.

How beautiful would it be so see Fitz and RR raising the Lombardi Trophy together in 2021? Fitz outduels Mahomes tossing 3 TD passes, one each to TMac, Allen Robinson and Logan Thomas....WFT 30, KC 27. 

I hope Fitz is somewhere near the top of the big board for our QB options in RR's office. 

[DWinzit]

6 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

How beautiful would it be so see Fitz and RR raising the Lombardi Trophy together in 2021? Fitz outduels Mahomes tossing 3 TD passes, one each to TMac, Allen Robinson and Logan Thomas....WFT 30, KC 27. 

I hope Fitz is somewhere near the top of the big board for our QB options in RR's office. 

I would think they could afford Fitz, Robinson or another top WR and a couple other FA's while keeping all of their draft picks and maybe taking a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round QB to groom.

Edited January 28, 2021 by DWinzit

[kingdaddy]

1 minute ago, DWinzit said:

I would think they could afford Fitz, Robinson or another top WR and a couple other FA's while keeping all of their draft picks and maybe taking a 2nd or 3rd round QB to groom.

Fitz, Heinicke, Newman.....Sign ARob and Marvin Jones. Sign some LB's, draft best available including a stud TE. Not sure what round we'll need to grab Newman to groom. I defer to KDawg.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

That's the thing. Its not like your doomed to go 8-8 forever. The Cowboys were laughed at for that reason because people were saying that Dak and before that Romo weren't franchise QBs or weren't guys that could take you there. But then they developed into the guys you can build around and things change.

 

Dak and Romo are in Stafford categoy QBs.  They are good to very good.  Yes you can win with an 8-12 type QB.  It's not as easy but its doable.    The hard thing is winning with the 16-20 types and certainly with the 20-32 types.

 

5 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

TBut then they developed into the guys you can build around and things change. Sure sometimes you have a Foles or an Orton and what they started out as is what they ultimately become but just like people didn't know that all of the 2003 or 2011 QBs would be that bad, people don't know how good these low rounders who can play can be. And just like the first rounders, there is general knowledge (and I'd suspect more within the team) about who has a chance to make the roster, who has a chance to be a backup and who may see playing time as a rookie even before the draft.

 

We have a general difference of philopsphy on the patience of developing guys.  I recall from other posts, you seem to think that almost any player can succeed with enough patience. Dudes like Kapri Bibbs intrigue you as much if not more so than the Adrian Peterson types.  You've loved to mention Nick Mullins during the season.  You still think Jason Campbell was did wrong and might have been the guy.  You come off to me like you think the diamonds in the rough are under almost every rock. You are consistent with it and do research and give examples. You work to put meat behind your points and its good discussion on your end. 

 

I agree with the feel good spirit of the point.  But in reality, i don't care how much nurturing you give a dude like Nat Sudfeld, I'd think he'd still fail.  You like to bring up the rare hit rates of low drafted QBs as if they aren't as rare as people think or can become the norm with just patience but to me that's pie in the sky stuff, wouldn't it be cool if so stuff. 

 

I'd rather bet with the odds then play the lotto and hope to get lucky and bank on the exceptions.  And i don't think the secret sauce to make low rounders work where its not the lotto is just keep playing them until they become Dak.    The thing is Dak looked like John Elway in his first preseason.   He flashed fast.  It wasn't a slow burn.  He got progressively better but he was decent from the jump.   He wasn't like Haskins who stunk it up from the jump.   Prescott has a monster year, 13-3, from the jump, 23 TDs, 4 Ints.

 

PFF showed a study that indicated there is a strong correlation from bad rookie play and that player ultimately being bad and vice versa as for good play.

 

5 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

But think about that 20 franchise QBs have been drafted in the first round since 1999. That's not even 1 per team. That's not even one for every playoff team. So some teams are going to be consistently drafting these first round busts and cycling through 3-13 seasons to do it again and in the mean time building nothing because their first rounders keep going to QB busts. What did we have for the Ramsey, Campbell, RG3 and Haskins deals 3 years later? Thats 4+ first rounders gone and nothing to show for it because 3 of those guys were complete busts and the 4th (Campbell) wasn't good enough to not be replaced. And what were we doing? We won 18 games in 3 years with Ramsey at QB, 21 games in 3 years with Campbell at QB, 13 games in 2 years with Griffin at QB, and 4 games in 2 years with Haskins at QB. That's not something to make me happy either. In fact when comparing the possibility of going 6-10 to 10-6 for a decade vs going 3-13 to 6-10, I'd take the former. 

 

And I just think that just like we did with Cousins we can find the late rounders who slip through the draft (think Newman this year) who we can build around and mold into a franchise QB, but not suck while we're doing it because we also have a running game and a defense. 

 

What do you remember about?

 

Todd Husak

Jordan Palmer

Colt Brennan

Nate Sudfeld

Gibran Hamden

Chris Hakell

 

My guess is very little.  All teams have plenty of guys like that.  People will remember the first rounders because they are big names.  But they aren't going to harp or even remember guys like Webb, Kizer, Dobbs and the zillion other nobodies that amounted to nothing who were taking after the first.   

 

We by many accounts overdrafted Haskins, Campbell, Ramsey.  I recall all the narratives at the time, and both Ramsey and Campbell were to some surprise first rounders.   With Haskins it was more mixed, the media draftnik types liked him but by numerous accounts the personnel guys on various teams not so much.

 

In the last 40 years or so, we've only taken IMO one swing at a potential elite QB and swung for the fences for a QB.  That was in 2012 for RG3.  That failed.  We are 0-1.   The other dudes I don't consider shocking misses.  I was openly rooting that they wouldn't draft Haskins on draft day.  But i did like RG3. 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Fitz, Heinicke, Newman.....Sign ARob and Marvin Jones. Sign some LB's, draft best available including a stud TE. Not sure what round we'll need to grab Newman to groom. I defer to KDawg.

So simple! We just won next years Super Bowl and have Newman groomed for a year plus all those picks used to fill in the roster holes. lol

Newman's draft status is somewhat dependent on his performance this weekend. But figure a 2nd

Edited January 28, 2021 by DWinzit

[mistertim]

My guys...Fitz is like the most up and down and streaky QB on the planet. He'd drive us nuts by throwing a beautiful TD and then following it up with two boneheaded INTs. I don't get the infatuation with the dude. Is it his personality? Outside of one year with the Jets he's always been a completely mediocre QB who's just as prone to make a head scratching bad play as he is to make an amazing one.

[Est.1974]

Watson is a complete stud, dragged down by dysfunction. Like all of the other QBs up for grabs, it’s simply a case of fair value. With the consideration of being prepared to pay that premium to win the race. 
 

We are going to be very foolish if we sit on our hands, whether that be in free agency or the draft.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[86 Snyder]

36 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think both ways are a risk. One way is putting all that risk into one player. The other is spreading the risk out. Which is a better risk? If some say Watson, I don’t agree, but I totally understand the mindset.

But we won’t have the roster pieces. So no, I’m not underestimating how badly they were coached. And honestly I think he’s a good offensive coach and meh HC and horrible GM

 

O’Brien was okay until he went looney towards the end. Nothing great but okay as GM. 
 

Coaching plays a role. So does surrounding talent.

 

We desperately need another recieving option, but you can get that in FA.  If you trade 3+ 1sts for Watson and sign Arob Id argue our roster is every bit as good as any of his Texans teams were on talent alone.  And the locker room/coaching environment would be way better (cant believe im writing that but thanks Ron).

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Watson is a complete stud, dragged down by dysfunction. Like all of the other QBs up for grabs, it’s simply a case of fair value. With the consideration of being prepared to pay that premium to win the race. 
 

We are going to be very foolish if we sit on our hands, whether that be in free agency or the draft.

 

I think it's pretty unlikely we get him. Draft position is probably going to be a factor. So the Jags, Jets, Miami could all offer Houston a top 3 pick to get one of the top QBs and our #19 pick would be puny in comparison. That probably means we'd have to really give up a massive haul to make them consider us over a team with a top 3 pick. Like, three 1sts and three 2nds kind of haul.

 

Jags, Jets, and Miami also have two 1sts in THIS draft. We simply won't be able to beat any of their offers.

Edited January 28, 2021 by mistertim

[JoggingGod]

7 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think it's pretty unlikely we get him. Draft position is probably going to be a factor. So the Jags, Jets, Miami could all offer Houston a top 3 pick to get one of the top QBs and our #19 pick would be puny in comparison. That probably means we'd have to really give up a massive haul to make them consider us over a team with a top 3 pick. Like, three 1sts and three 2nds kind of haul.

 

Jags, Jets, and Miami also have two 1sts in THIS draft. We simply won't be able to beat any of their offers.

He has a NTC. He can choose where he wants to go.

[Skinsinparadise]

Some of the media's coverage of Watson is a bit annoying.  I'd hazard a guess that plenty fans know how special Watson is.  But it seems like they want to one up every trade proposal.  OK to them, three #1's and a #2 isn't enough.  But listening to some of them, you'd have to give the Texans your next four drafts in full like the Ricky Williams trade on steroids -- and each wants to re-up the other about how how much a team has to give up for Watson.  i bet if some fan said 5 #1's they'd say its just not enough guys, don't you get how special Watson is? 

 

 

 

[BC-Redskins]

Now that Watson is wanting traded I actually think it May happen but I only think it’s Miami who can afford or meet the trade requirement with 1st’s....

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with  TUA which I’m not sure about....

 

[Est.1974]

13 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think it's pretty unlikely we get him. Draft position is probably going to be a factor. So the Jags, Jets, Miami could all offer Houston a top 3 pick to get one of the top QBs and our #19 pick would be puny in comparison. That probably means we'd have to really give up a massive haul to make them consider us over a team with a top 3 pick. Like, three 1sts and three 2nds kind of haul.

Agree.

 

Interesting the flip was said about the 49ers and Stafford for example, where they really don’t want to part with #12, too high of a first. Draft positioning is a major factor with these first rounders.

 

That of course creates reluctance’s with trading future 1’s. Depends how much you back yourself to perform in 2021. We should be setting the bar at picking #19 minimum. 
 

Or maybe play it cautiously backing ourselves for failure by thinking our pick will be top 10.  
 

Nice insight into mentality and expectations. 
 

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by UK SKINS FAN 74

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, JoggingGod said:

He has a NTC. He can choose where he wants to go.

 

Ah yeah, good point. Man that would suck for them if Jax offered up #1 overall, their other 1st this year, and their 1st next year but they couldn't do it because Watson said he won't go there. I thought I read that Watson may favor the Jets and Miami, so they could still put some high picks.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

You add Chase Young to a Watson deal and you're absolutely in the conversation.  Same with the 9ers and Bosa.

 

 

 

 

[JoggingGod]

We're definitely one of the more appealing locations for Watson. He'd have a legit shot to make the SB here and def win the division for the foreseeable future, plus with him being big about social justice being right outside DC and being on a team with a lot of minority leadership us a boon.

 

1 minute ago, DisgruntledLionFan#54,927 said:

You add Chase Young to a Watson deal and you're absolutely in the conversation.  Same with the 9ers and Bosa.

 

 

 

 

Texans don't have that sort of leverage. It will be picks and maybe a lower level player.

Edited January 28, 2021 by JoggingGod

[Thinking Skins]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We have a general difference of philopsphy on the patience of developing guys.  I recall from other posts, you seem to think that almost any player can succeed with enough patience. Dudes like Kapri Bibbs intrigue you as much if not more so than the Adrian Peterson types.  You've loved to mention Nick Mullins during the season.  You still think Jason Campbell was did wrong and might have been the guy.  You come off to me like you think the diamonds in the rough are under almost every rock. You are consistent with it and do research and give examples. You work to put meat behind your points and its good discussion on your end. 

I think you misunderstand my points. It's not just that I love the diamond in the rough story. It's more that I value the idea that if he's the backup he be given a shot to play rather than simply replacing him when the starter goes down. Bibbs is the perfect example because he was playing well in 2018 but instead of playing him we played Gruden's man crush and lost our starting QB. 

 

I had this discussion with safeties years back because they kept being busts or getting hurt. We had guys on the roster who looked good in preseason but we wouldn't give them playing time but would instead sign guys off the street. 

 

I valued what Ron said about backups at safety because that's been my mentality all along. I think the guys on the roster should have first crack at playing when a guy goes down. If not, then why are they on the roster? 

 

Honestly it's less about diamonds in the rough and more about using our resources. We've only got 1 first rounder every year and sure a QB is the most pressing need most years but there's rarely a sure thing like Luck. But normally, even picking in the teens at can get a better option at another position. Then we can address QB at a different time like FAs or a trade or a lower round. I just think it's a more sound philosophy to pick best player available regardless of position, even at qb. 

 

And its not like I'm saying that Campbell was an all pro QB. Just that we could have had similar success as what Houston did with Schaub or what Cinci did with Dalton or what Chicago did with Orton. But the constant changing of coaches and QBs because we're always looking for something shiny is frustrating when the guys you replace them with aren't as good. And yes I'm saying that McNabb, Grossman, and Beck were worse here than Campbell and we would have been better those first 2 years of Shanahan with Campbell at QB. 

[Anselmheifer]

In terms of packaging Chase for Watson, would Watson still want to come here? Chase is the best player on the unit that made us competitive in the first place. 

 

I’m not convinced that the Texans are going to want to trade Watson in conference. I don’t think this is talked about enough. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[HigSkin]

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

56 minutes ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

Hes overrated you can't prove me wrong how many playoff wins? how many pro bowls? how many division titles? drafted 1st overall......the expectations in Detroit should have been higher they are probably realizing they stuck with him too long, he won't make us any better then we are, yet a first round pick could potentially sure up a position of need for years....

 

Just such a terrible take on Stafford. There is a reason 1/3 of the league is calling Detroit. But I'm sure you know more than all these professionals.   

[Anselmheifer]

For Watson, does two 1sts, a 2nd, and Montez Sweat get it done? 

[HigSkin]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Honestly it's less about diamonds in the rough and more about using our resources. We've only got 1 first rounder every year and sure a QB is the most pressing need most years but there's rarely a sure thing like Luck. But normally, even picking in the teens at can get a better option at another position. Then we can address QB at a different time like FAs or a trade or a lower round. I just think it's a more sound philosophy to pick best player available regardless of position, even at qb. 

 

And its not like I'm saying that Campbell was an all pro QB. Just that we could have had similar success as what Houston did with Schaub or what Cinci did with Dalton or what Chicago did with Orton. But the constant changing of coaches and QBs because we're always looking for something shiny is frustrating when the guys you replace them with aren't as good. And yes I'm saying that McNabb, Grossman, and Beck were worse here than Campbell and we would have been better those first 2 years of Shanahan with Campbell at QB. 

 

But what would make you think Campbell could have been Schaub in his heyday?  Campbell has a long/slow delivery and his accuracy wasn't always hot.  Heck even as to Orton ironically from what I read it was the Bears liking Orton over Campbell was why they traded Cutler to the Bears instead of here.

 

Maybe a better way for me to put it is you have a predisposition to be very optimistic about guys on our roster even the undrafted ones.  We've debated enough on it that I can recall examples.  One of the more recent ones was I recall you trying to sell during the season that Haskins played as well as Alex Smith so we shouldn't give him a hard time for showing strong game manager tendencies.  Every now and then you pop up with something like that about some player who isn't as loved by others in the board.  Kapri Bibbs was hard to forget because you posted a lot about him at the time. 

 

I think our goals are higher at QB.  I agree with your premise that if you want to find the next Schaub for example or Orton you can do it without mortgaging resources.  I agree with your take on that.  Our differences I believe is what type of QB, I want.

 

I get your point that elite guys are so hard to find so why even sweat it.  If you get lucky you get lucky on that front.  I even agree with your other point about finding dudes like Mullins, Keenum, Orton, etc aren't that hard.  I think our difference is for me there is a clear and critical middle ground between the Mahomes types and Kyle Orton types.  It's those QBs in the 8-13 range.  We've struggled with that, too.  Those guys aren't easy to find either.  And you aren't typically finding them in the 6th round.  And heck it matters if you have Matt Stafford at the helm versus Kyle Orton.  Orton isn't taking you to the SB in all likelihood, at best once inawhile you'd make the playoffs and will get eliminated right away.  With a dude like Stafford you have a shot albeit not as good a shot as someone like Mahomes.  For both type of QBs they need a supporting cast.   But the Stafford types if you build them a good supporting cast you have a shot.  With a dude like Orton even with a killer supporting cast its unlikely you are going deep in the playoffs let alone winning a SB. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Skinsinparadise