What Offer Would Change Your Mind on Trading Down???

[Renegade7]

6 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I highly doubt that Belechik would allow his draft chart to be posted on the website?

 

Even if I agree he may have his own chart, how can it be that every front office uses a different chart while at the same time every link of front page of Google uses the Jimmy Johnson model? 

 

Is that for the general public to kill time subjecting over if the actual team's charts are all private and different?  Isn't the Hill chart you are referencing to the personal estimation of some blogger?

 

If we don't know how teams actually value these picks based on likely player that will be there, is the Jimmy Johnson model a starting point for where to value the pick from?

[OVCChairman]

3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Even if I agree he may have his own chart, how can it be that every front office uses a different chart while at the same time every link of front page of Google uses the Jimmy Johnson model? 

 

Is that for the general public to kill time subjecting over if the actual team's charts are all private and different?  Isn't the Hill chart you are referencing to the personal estimation of some blogger?

 

If we don't know how teams actually value these picks based on likely player that will be there, is the Jimmy Johnson model a starting point for where to value the pick from?

 

 

Im sure its a relative gauge that may not be far off... but i would be surprised if anyone used that exact chart.... i could be wrong

[JamesMadisonSkins]

The charts are subjective. I’ve just read articles last few years that say the new chart is more accurate and reflective of actual trade value. This year could be diff tho since there’s 3 elite players if Tua is healthy

[Renegade7]

4 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Im sure its a relative gauge that may not be far off... but i would be surprised if anyone used that exact chart.... i could be wrong

 

Ya, think we might be in danger of running its course if we start trying to guess what numbers each team users if we are trying confirm our math is right.

 

I see the drop off from 1.1 to 1.2, and then 1.2 to 1.3, but 1.5 and 3.2 aren't that far off from 1.3, those support the important part of a trade down with Miami, being able to trade back up with Detroit to still get Young.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

What's really wrong with this dline that it needs someone like that?

 

Sweat - Allen - Payne - Ionnidas

 

That's three first rounders and a pro bowl alternate already.

 

 

Again, I'd like to try Sweat and Ionnidas first before saying we need Young because we can do better then the pro bowl alternate wed be replacing him with.

 

I really don't care how many sacks Kerrigan gets at linebacker anymore because Del Rio is going to try to get most of his pressure from the dline.  If Kerrigan can help that, rotate him in at DE.

 

 

You already have that with Haskins.  That amount of effort you want put into something like the face of your franchise should be going into him, not some guy you haven't even drafted yet.  Not unless you are replacing Haskins in this draft.

 

Edit: I guess we maybe have to step back and ask how many potential pro bowlers we have In the team already before saying we'll still have trouble selling jerseys if the only thing we change is we start winning again.

 

 

ioannidis is absolutely not a 4-3 DE. He's a 3 tech DT (or 3-4 DE) who can also sub in at 1 tech in an Under scheme. He doesn't have the speed, flexibility, or bend to play DE. Allen is more agile and athletic than ioannidis and I watched him play DE on occasion in a 4-3 look in cutups from Alabama, and he was noticeably much less effective there than when lined up as a 3 or 1 tech so I doubt ioannidis would fare better as he's more of a power guy who also uses his hands well to shed blocks inside. 

 

If we put ioannidis in at DE in a 4-3 it would be a complete waste of his talents and he'd be completely out of position. For a DE you ideally want big time get off, flexible hips to bend the edge, lots of lateral agility, long frame. ioannidis is a awesome where he is, but he really doesn't have any of that. 

[50yrSKINSfan]

1 hour ago, PartyPosse said:

Carolina and Chargers also need QB and they pick right behind Miami. If either wanted Tua they could easily offer a first next year to swap spots with NY or Detroit.

Yes but both of those teams only have one first round pick this year and if you want to improve your team now you want picks from someone trading up this year if possible.  IMO if you are going to offer picks next year it will cost you more than if you had picks to offer this year. I am starting to think we will get no offers as there are 3 QBs available and only 1 team in the top 4 that needs a QB so Miami should get their QB without having to trade up unless Detroit makes a play for Tua. If Detroit wants Tua what do they do with Bradford's contract? Believe he has 3 years left. Does Miami want Tua or the other QB? 

[Koolblue13]

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Disagree, Haskins looked pretty good for this level towards end of the year. Young has yet to play a down in the NFL yet.  Which would be more shocking?

A young QB with one great college year who looked awful at first, then pretty good for a 3 win QB playing meaningless games against bad teams busting is a lot more believable than a DE who coming out looking better than the previous players that have become amazing pros.

 

I'm a Haskins fan and believer. QBs do easily bust.

[Renegade7]

39 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

If we put ioannidis in at DE in a 4-3 it would be a complete waste of his talents and he'd be completely out of position. For a DE you ideally want big time get off, flexible hips to bend the edge, lots of lateral agility, long frame. ioannidis is a awesome where he is, but he really doesn't have any of that. 

 

I see what you saying about Ioannidis, but are you sure we cant possibly use Allen as a 4-3 DE either?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2017/3/14/14828682/jonathan-allen-scouting-report-breakdown-2017-nfl-draft

[KDawg]

Allen is literally a prototype for the 3-tech.

[Renegade7]

 

28 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

A young QB with one great college year who looked awful at first, then pretty good for a 3 win QB playing meaningless games against bad teams busting is a lot more believable than a DE who coming out looking better than the previous players that have become amazing pros.

 

I'm a Haskins fan and believer. QBs do easily bust.

 

At this rate we are speculating about Haskins future same way we would be Young.  I get Young is likely a better prospect then Haskins when he came out, but I'd be shocked Haskins busted versus just Young being a better player, I get what you saying, but think that's different

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/12/04/one-metric-says-dwayne-haskins-is-playing-well-another-says-hes-been-terrible-heres-why/

 

Quote

Haskins has been Pro Football Focus’s 11th-highest-rated passer since he took over as Washington’s full-time starting quarterback in Week 9. That puts him ahead of notable names such as Dak Prescott (12th), Tom Brady (14th) and MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers (24th) in that span. And before you dismiss this as a benchmark only nerds will care about, bear in mind that Haskins has taken notice of these accomplishments, retweeting kudos from Pro Football Focus for his Week 13 performance.

 

 

[Renegade7]

7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Allen is literally a prototype for the 3-tech.

 

I see.  So are we saying we only have one 4-3 DE in Sweat and not counting Kerrigan?

 

This sounds like a set up for someone who's moving to 4-3 DT ending up odd man out.  I'd like to look around some more on Allen's pass rushing techniques and abilities along with how to get out best linemen on the field to cause double teams. 

 

I'll admit I was bothered about the 4-3 change because I felt wed lose Allen to FA because of wanting to start over Ioannidis.  I'm going to look at free agent DEs as well.

 

Who is Yetur Gross-Matos?

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/12/31/21035514/washington-redskins-2020-draft-profiles-yetur-gross-matos-edge-penn-state

[HTTRDynasty]

I’ll keep my opinions on Allen to myself, so as not to upset too many people on this fine Super Bowl weekend, but let’s just say he’ll be good depth at DT. 

[Koolblue13]

21 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

 

At this rate we are speculating about Haskins future same way we would be Young.  I get Young is likely a better prospect then Haskins when he came out, but I'd be shocked Haskins busted versus just Young being a better player, I get what you saying, but think that's different

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/12/04/one-metric-says-dwayne-haskins-is-playing-well-another-says-hes-been-terrible-heres-why/

 

 

 

Okay

[Renegade7]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Okay

 

You right Young is more likely to be a HOF then Haskins is not to bust.  I dont feel good saying that at all.

[mistertim]

33 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I see what you saying about Ioannidis, but are you sure we cant possibly use Allen as a 4-3 DE either?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2017/3/14/14828682/jonathan-allen-scouting-report-breakdown-2017-nfl-draft

 

Allen can play 4-3 DE but when I watched him play there on occasion at Bama he was noticeably less effective as a pass rusher. Not enough get off to win with speed, not enough flexibility to bend when he got to the edge, and when going against good size OTs he didn't have the length to get into their pads consistently. He wasn't awful, but as I said he was noticeably less effective and much less disruptive than when he was at 3 tech. He could play 4-3 DE but IMO he'd get handled by decent NFL OTs much of the time without too much of a problem unless he was only there on obvious running downs to set the edge, which he was decent at. Only thing he'd have as an advantage over most 4-3 DEs would be size when bull rushing, but that's only going to take you so far and can actually be a hindrance because that sort of size is bound to come with some decreased speed and flexibility. 

 

As @KDawgnoted, Allen really is a prototype for a 3 tech inside player. 

[kingdaddy]

33 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I’ll keep my opinions on Allen to myself, so as not to upset too many people on this fine Super Bowl weekend, but let’s just say he’ll be good depth at DT. 

I have my suspicions that RR and JDR will elevate the level of play on the D-line....Allen, Payne and Sweat will all be reminded that they are first round picks and need to play like it. Allen will relish that kind of coaching and I'm sure the others will too. Keep in mind, if the secondary is improved, the D-line will play more inspired football....Like JDR said, he didn't see much camaraderie on defense when he watched the film, lots of indecision and no cohesiveness. That's gonna change quickly. 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

You right Young is more likely to be a HOF then Haskins is not to bust.  I dont feel good saying that at all.

I dont either, but I think Haskins going Trubisky after his first year is more possible than Young not going Mack ya know. Hopefully they're both awesome. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

22 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Not being sure if you'd take all 3 of Miami's 1sts this year along with their 1st next year is crazy, pretty much no matter how highly you have Young graded. I mean, wow. That's a lot of pressure on one great prospect. And I get it. I want the top of the league blue chipper too. The face of the franchise type guy with DPOY candidate potential.

 

But if you like Kyle Smith...4 extra 1sts to play with (3 of them instantly and one of those still top 5!) is how you build a championship team, even if you factor in at least one whiff. Damn that's a lot of talent and value. Prime Mack went for less (but admittedly also needed to be paid). 

Flip side: I trust Kyle Smith.   And I trust he can find really good players in a lot of places.  
 

So give me the guy with the generational talent and then Kyle can go find other diamonds in the rough elsewhere.  
 

I’m not saying you absolutely go either way.  I think it all hinges on the evaluation.  IF Chase Young is evaluated by Kyle, Ron and Jack as a generational talent, compared to a Reggie White, etc., then you take him.  If he’s evaluated as REALLY good, maybe even great, but not THAT level of great, you take the picks and run.  

[PartyPosse]

9 hours ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

Yes but both of those teams only have one first round pick this year and if you want to improve your team now you want picks from someone trading up this year if possible.  IMO if you are going to offer picks next year it will cost you more than if you had picks to offer this year. I am starting to think we will get no offers as there are 3 QBs available and only 1 team in the top 4 that needs a QB so Miami should get their QB without having to trade up unless Detroit makes a play for Tua. If Detroit wants Tua what do they do with Bradford's contract? Believe he has 3 years left. Does Miami want Tua or the other QB? 

KC moved up 15 spots to draft Mahomes by basically giving up an additional first for the following year (along with a third). Teams looking to move up 3 spots could very easily do so giving up a future first. Detroit would still get someone they need.

[RWJ]

I think you take Young.  End of story.

[FrFan]

11 hours ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

 If Detroit wants Tua what do they do with Bradford's contract? Believe he has 3 years left. Does Miami want Tua or the other QB? 

We need a biding war, it takes two to tango, and maybe another team hiding its intentions like KC did when they selected Mahomes.

if Tua and Herbert have an impressive combine things can get really interesting.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

What's really wrong with this dline that it needs someone like that?

 

Sweat - Allen - Payne - Ionnidas

 

That's three first rounders and a pro bowl alternate already.

 

It's not about what's wrong with them.  It's about elevating a D line that is good.  It's not great.  It's not special.  And making that unit potentially special.  And defense that is historically bad on third down, isn't bringing pressure home at the right points in the game.   

 

It's like saying what's wrong with an Outback Steakhouse steak?  There is nothing wrong with it at all.  It's edible and it's even good but its not something you write home about.  If you go to Ruth Chris Steakhouse, it's in another sphere.  Similar point here in theory. 

 

I usually spend some time just watching the D line when the season is over via coaches's tape.  I haven't done it yet this season.  But I will.   I am talking from my perspective which is an amateur but heck all we got is our own opinions so that's what I share.  Kerrigan IMO isn't a game wrecker.    He's a good player but he mostly doesn't command double teams.   He rarely has games where he's just a handful all game long.

 

What grabbed me about Chase and I said this was months back before the hype got out of a hand was what a difference he looked compared to what I am used to seeing when I study our D lineman.  The main thing is its almost constant.  It's play after play.  There are some breaks in the action but not many. 

 

And then you got guys miles smarter than me like Cooley say he is wowed by Young because unlike most pass rushers he makes an impact on almost every play.  It confirms what I see at least in my own mind. 

 

And then you get his ex-coach, Urban Meyer, saying he's a generational player and explaining it.  And then add a ton more to that pile.   on and on and on.  If Kyle Smith likewise sees Chase as that type of player, you take him IMO unless you get some insane offer and are convinced you can get a player just a hair below.

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

 

Again, I'd like to try Sweat and Ionnidas first before saying we need Young because we can do better then the pro bowl alternate wed be replacing him with.

 

 

It's not about Sweat.  It's about Kerrigan.   SF went through the trouble of getting TWO pass rushers.  They also have good D tackles.  The Bears 85 defense was about being stacked with their front 7, loaded.  That's what gets you a top 5 defense.

 

16 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

 

We have no players in the top 50 in Jersey sales, I'm not sure how adding one will make the difference you are looking for. 

 

It's not purely about jersey sales.  And it's not about me.  Based on how you responded I don't think you feel my point on this at all.  So I am not explaining it well.  So I'll leave it alone especially since its gravy its not the center plot.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Flip side: I trust Kyle Smith.   And I trust he can find really good players in a lot of places.  
 

So give me the guy with the generational talent and then Kyle can go find other diamonds in the rough elsewhere.  
 

I’m not saying you absolutely go either way.  I think it all hinges on the evaluation.  IF Chase Young is evaluated by Kyle, Ron and Jack as a generational talent, compared to a Reggie White, etc., then you take him.  If he’s evaluated as REALLY good, maybe even great, but not THAT level of great, you take the picks and run.  

 

This is how I see it.  I am no scout. My evaluation of a player is purely personal and mostly for my own amusement.  But if Kyle sees this guy as the next Peppers, Von Miller, etc you take him.  If Kyle thinks the dude is overhyped and likes Simmons almost as much or whatever then trade down. 

 

The side point on this that I've been trying to make is its rare for this team to have a killer A + type player.  It's not how the Redskins have rolled.  And as much as I love Kyle he has yet to break that streak himself on that front.    We all love Jonathan Allen but no one is talking about him as an elite player or even close to elite.   

 

I like Landon Collins as much as anyone here but if I get into a line at Disney waiting for a ride as an example and I am wearing a Redskins shirt as I often do and get into a conversation with a football team usually a fan of another team - the other one isn't saying dude that Landon Collins, he's a baller, we'd love to have him.    We don't have the national conversation type players because we don't have the elite guys.   

 

PFF isn't the be all and end all.  But there metrics aren't per se a mile off either.  If I recall correctly a player that's in the 90's is their version of elite. 70 = good.  60.  above average.  50 average. 

 

 

 

[tmandoug1]

This would be my choice....big smile if either of these two happen. Getting the three picks would make my O line obsession settle a bit. So I am leaning that way. My pessimistic side keeps seeing B. Bosworth.

 

"So Scenario 1 given the above FA / Off-season moves:

Chase Young or:

Isaiah Simmons, K'Lavon Chiasson, Andrew Thomas"

[KDawg]

@Skinsinparadise I don’t disagree with your point, but, I don’t see many people talking about Jamal Adams much outside of Jet fans... and he may be the best safety in the entire NFL. 
 

A lot of the guys in the national conversation aren’t there because they’re the best players, but because they are the most hyped.

 

Sure, there’s a lot of guys that are both. Mahomes immediately rings a bell. 
 

KC’s best pass rusher, Jones, is pretty damn good. I don’t know about elite, but he’s good. Up until recently you haven’t heard much about him. 
 

Rarely do you see OL hyped. 
 

Baker Mayfield IS hyped, though. 
 

I don’t know. That kind of attention just isn’t important in my eyes. I want guys who can play and if it leads to them getting recognized, great.