What Offer Would Change Your Mind on Trading Down???

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

Daron Payne and Aaron Donald don’t play the same position...

 

Daron doesn't always play nose.  I haven't rewatched the film this year yet but will do so to see if they changed that this season.  Last year they moved him around and he played his share of 3 technique, he wasn't always playing nose.   Daron is a good player, arguably he's a better fit playing 3 ironically than nose but he's not a dominant player.  He has dominant type of talent but he hasn't been a dominant player.  He hasn't sniffed All Pro or Pro Bowl status yet.

 

PFF isn't the be all and end all but its all we got as for assigning a metric to a player aside from rankings, All Pro voting, etc.  

 

This team doesn't have elite players on defense.  Maybe they can evolve to it.   And this isn't a new rodeo for the last 20 years.  It's been how it's mostly been.   This isn't a dominant D line if we just let it ride.  

 

The two unique things about the Dan era has been its the only team not to exceed 10 wins.  But also the only team without a first team All Pro player aside from Turk if I recall in Dan's first season or 2nd?  To us our best players are great within our own world of fandom but around the NFL this roster sticks out for not having elite players.  I got some faith that we can turn the tide with some of our younger players but again that would be a novel ride aside from IMO Sean in his last season and Trent sort of but not exactly because of his durability issues. 

 

 

 

[cakmoney61]

3 hours ago, LD0506 said:

Funny, I hear people saying we ought to trade off an asset (the #2 pick) for a fortune in lesser assets because we are a bad team with many needs and we ought to maximize the opportunity.

 

Isn't this essentially what Miami did? dealt off assets to gain multiple picks to grab as many upgrades as they can to try and quick fix a bad team? But now, we think they will just bundle them all up and trade it all to us for one single shot at a QB.

 

Miami took a huge gamble, lost valuable assets and accepted a losing season in order to bank on a brighter future. Now that's here and we think they are going to dump it all, first rounders (plural) this year along with 2s, next year's picks, yadda yadda yadda, because we are now the magpie chasing the shiny?

 

Let Miami do Miami, let Detroit Detroit, don't sweat what others do, make the choice that works best here, do your own job and stop with the fantasies.

 

Young will be a nice pick, but this season won't live or die on any pick, it will be decided by the work done by the organization to best use the assets we do have.

 

I trot to the podium with Young's name and never look back.

I am with you on the unlikelihood of Miami trading multiple 1st-round picks to move up for an injured QB who has an uncertain future regarding his long-term health.  They sacrificed too much 1st-round talent to give up three 1st round picks.  If I am Miami, I would sit and hope Tua falls to me if I am willing to take him with the #5 pick.  I can't imagine they would be so desperate that they would take him earlier than #5.  If he doesn't fall to me (Miami) at #5, my attitude would be that it wasn't meant to be.   

 

I can't see anyone giving up a king's ransom to moved up for Tua.  OTOH, I can see Detroit trading places with us to ensure they get him if they desperately wanted him, because it would cost them very little to move up.  Say there #3 pick in round 2?  Which is probably unlikely.  I could realistically see Detroit trading their third- or fourth-round pick.  

 

When the smoke clears, however, the Bengals will draft Burrow, the Redskins will draft Young, and then the 2020 NFL draft will begin.

[Skinsinparadise]

I am one of the biggest Tua fans out there, have seen him play live multiple times.  Yet, 2 ankle injuries, the hip surgery and besides that he tends to get nagging injuries, too.  If I am Miami I wouldn't trade the moon for Tua.  

 

What I'd want to consider a trade I wouldn't do if I were in Miami's shoes.  That would be 2 first round picks this year (their top 2), a 2nd rounder and next year's first.  So sort of the RG3 trade but slightly juiced up since we'd get one of the first rounders quicker than what we gave up in that trade. 

 

I seriously doubt the Dolphins would offer that.    My strong leaning would be to hold on the pick but my mind would be open to a trade that would just blow me away but I don't expect that type of offer to come. 

[redskinss]

2 hours ago, dyst said:

Why do people want all 3 from Miami in this years draft? If you are going to trade with them, its better to get #5 this year and their #1 in 2021 and 2022 instead.

You really think so?

I thought the common thinking is that a pick in any round in a certain year is worth one round higher the next year, sorta the bird in the hand analogy. 

Plus the draft experts around here say the first round this year is completely loaded.

 

I'd think three first's this year would be far more valuable than three in consecutive years but I could be wrong. 

 

There is something to be said though for staggering the years they'll need new contracts though.

[mistertim]

55 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am one of the biggest Tua fans out there, have seen him play live multiple times.  Yet, 2 ankle injuries, the hip surgery and besides that he tends to get nagging injuries, too.  If I am Miami I wouldn't trade the moon for Tua.  

 

What I'd want to consider a trade I wouldn't do if I were in Miami's shoes.  That would be 2 first round picks this year (their top 2), a 2nd rounder and next year's first.  So sort of the RG3 trade but slightly juiced up since we'd get one of the first rounders quicker than what we gave up in that trade. 

 

I seriously doubt the Dolphins would offer that.    My strong leaning would be to hold on the pick but my mind would be open to a trade that would just blow me away but I don't expect that type of offer to come. 

 

Yeah I don't want it to sound like I'm not a fan of Tua or anything either. I loved watching him play. But if I'm an NFL team his most recent major injury + surgery and the other injury history would make me extremely wary of spending a top 5 pick on him in general, let alone giving up multiple first round picks that I'd stockpiled in order to move up for him. He's a dynamic and electric playmaker when he's healthy but the injury history is worrisome and there's also no way to know if he'll ever be the same guy after this most recent major one. IMO even taking him at 5 is a big risk so I wouldn't necessarily be shocked if Miami passed on him there as well. 

[dyst]

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

You really think so?

I thought the common thinking is that a pick in any round in a certain year is worth one round higher the next year, sorta the bird in the hand analogy. 

Plus the draft experts around here say the first round this year is completely loaded.

 

I'd think three first's this year would be far more valuable than three in consecutive years but I could be wrong. 

 

There is something to be said though for staggering the years they'll need new contracts though.

Like us, Miami is a dysfunctional team with an inept owner. Theoretically they could be just as bad or worse the next couple of years and those picks could be higher than 18 and 26 from this year.

 

As for a loaded draft, I don’t know, I feel like that is said almost every year. I guess my thinking is, what if Miami sucks again in 2021 and 2022 and their first round pick is in the top 5 in both years. Those have to be more valuable than 18 and 26 this year.
 

Good point about the contracts.

[Skins199021]

4 hours ago, LD0506 said:

Funny, I hear people saying we ought to trade off an asset (the #2 pick) for a fortune in lesser assets because we are a bad team with many needs and we ought to maximize the opportunity.

 

Isn't this essentially what Miami did? dealt off assets to gain multiple picks to grab as many upgrades as they can to try and quick fix a bad team? But now, we think they will just bundle them all up and trade it all to us for one single shot at a QB.

 

Miami took a huge gamble, lost valuable assets and accepted a losing season in order to bank on a brighter future. Now that's here and we think they are going to dump it all, first rounders (plural) this year along with 2s, next year's picks, yadda yadda yadda, because we are now the magpie chasing the shiny?

 

Let Miami do Miami, let Detroit Detroit, don't sweat what others do, make the choice that works best here, do your own job and stop with the fantasies.

 

Young will be a nice pick, but this season won't live or die on any pick, it will be decided by the work done by the organization to best use the assets we do have.

 

I trot to the podium with Young's name and never look back.

There is no way of knowing that. You are operating under false pretenses if you believe Young is a sure thing as opposed to guys you pick at 5,18, and 39 (in a hypothetical scenario)

 

Would you not trade a $100 bill for three $50 bills? That is almost the logic you are using except in this case we don't know if the $100 bill really is a $100 or if the $50 bills are really $50.

 

Considering we have major weaknesses other than our front 4 on defense. If we ended up with 5,18, and 39 and took AJ Epenesa, Delpit, and Queen. You still end up with a stud DE, a very good Safety prospect, and an LB that can be very productive for us on Day 1. If Miami throws in a 2021 2nd that is icing on the cake and draft ammo in the next year.

 

That sound better to me drafting Young and then hoping our LB corp, 2nd corner, and 2nd safety somehow aren't awful. If those are our 1st three picks and you take a WR like Edwards in the 3rd, and you can use all of our cap space on the O-line in FA (Resigning Flowers and Scherff, restructure Trent, maybe even sign Conklin.

 

Dallas trade away and actual proven generational talent at the NFL level, and it brought them a dynasty. Its silly to ignore the value of a trade back

[LD0506]

I don't try and pick Miami's pocket, I spend my money wisely

[mistertim]

5 hours ago, Skins199021 said:

There is no way of knowing that. You are operating under false pretenses if you believe Young is a sure thing as opposed to guys you pick at 5,18, and 39 (in a hypothetical scenario)

 

Would you not trade a $100 bill for three $50 bills? That is almost the logic you are using except in this case we don't know if the $100 bill really is a $100 or if the $50 bills are really $50.

 

Considering we have major weaknesses other than our front 4 on defense. If we ended up with 5,18, and 39 and took AJ Epenesa, Delpit, and Queen. You still end up with a stud DE, a very good Safety prospect, and an LB that can be very productive for us on Day 1. If Miami throws in a 2021 2nd that is icing on the cake and draft ammo in the next year.

 

That sound better to me drafting Young and then hoping our LB corp, 2nd corner, and 2nd safety somehow aren't awful. If those are our 1st three picks and you take a WR like Edwards in the 3rd, and you can use all of our cap space on the O-line in FA (Resigning Flowers and Scherff, restructure Trent, maybe even sign Conklin.

 

Dallas trade away and actual proven generational talent at the NFL level, and it brought them a dynasty. Its silly to ignore the value of a trade back

 

Young is definitely the closest thing to a "sure thing" in the draft (though Okudah has very little chance of busting IMO as well). Or in quite a few drafts. He has everything you want in a pass rusher as well as a strong character and work ethic. Him busting would be astounding. 

 

Interesting that you talk about how Young might not pan out but then call Epenesa a "stud DE". From watching his cutups Epenesa is good but not great. I don't think he's a top 10 talent. Certainly not at all on the level of Young as far as being a game wrecker who has to be game planned for and accounted for on every snap. I haven't watch as much of Delpit but from what I've seen it's the same...good but not great.

 

The analogy I'd use instead of the $100 bill for 3 $50 bills would be "Would you trade a bill I gave you in an envelope that you can't see but that probably has an excellent chance of being a $100 bill but also has an above average chance of being a $500 bill for 3 bills in an envelope all of which are likely to range anywhere from $20 to $100 and could but are very unlikely to be a $500?". I'd take the first one. $20 being decent starter level, $100 being Pro-Bowl level, and $500 being a first team All-Pro level. 

 

I understand the weaknesses argument and our DL not really being one but that's when you start drafting for need and reaching. And that's when you do things like pass on a guy with superstar potential like Derwin James to fill a need at NT. And Chase Young is definitely a higher rated prospect than James was. That's a guy you simply don't pass on. Would you pass on Calvin Johnson because you already had a couple of decent young WRs?

[Renegade7]

On 2/1/2020 at 7:29 PM, mistertim said:

 

One thing we could end up running into of course is salary as Allen will be on his last year of his rookie contract (though there's the fifth year option) and if he were to blow up this year it could get expensive to keep him. Payne is signed through 2021 that that's a bit further down the line (but still something to be watched for if he blows up as well). Ioannidis we now have signed through 2022. 

 

This is what I mean by odd man out.  Nothing wrong with rotating first round picks until it's time to pay them, and truth is that many, you cant pay them all.

 

Edit:  also the difference in what we gave the Rams for RG3 and what we could potentially get from Miami and Oakland is multiple first rounders in this draft, not future firsts. Different value.

[KDawg]

19 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Daron doesn't always play nose. 

 

 

The premise of my stance is that he is a 1-technique and shouldn't be moving around all that much. That should be his primary role. 

 

I don't care much what the former DCs have done with the roster, to be honest. They returned a net negative on it.

 

I get your point, but mine is from strictly a 1-technique with the correct system surrounding.

[Renegade7]

Ya. I fully endorse throwing out whatever these coaches tried to do as an indication of what these players can do.  Coaches know what they capable of, not to mention what they did before he got here.

[mistertim]

44 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

This is what I mean by odd man out.  Nothing wrong with rotating first round picks until it's time to pay them, and truth is that many, you cant pay them all.

 

Edit:  also the difference in what we gave the Rams for RG3 and what we could potentially get from Miami and Oakland is multiple first rounders in this draft, not future firsts. Different value.

 

Which is ok. i don't necessarily expect to be able pay them all, especially if they all play really well. Just a couple. Who it is depends on how they play this season and next. In the meantime we can still draft guys to groom for those positions also. But again, remember that all 3 of those guys...Allen, Payne, and Ioan...are all going to have their contracts up in different years so cap-wise we won't necessarily have to worry about paying all of them at once if we decided we really wanted to try and keep all of them. It might be expensive to keep them all, but if we really wanted to and we extended each of them in different years then we could work the contracts to minimize cap hit over successive years.

 

On the Edge, Sweat is also signed through 2022 and Young will be signed through 2023 so we won't have to worry about them for a while. Obviously, eventually we'll probably have to make tough roster choices, as every team does. But for now we have lots of guys on rookie deals (and will have more after the draft) so we're not in a bad spot. I'm not really going to worry about 2021-2023 until we get there. 

 

If we traded back then we'd also have even more 1st rounders to eventually have to re-sign, depending on how they played. Can't have your cake and eat it too unfortunately. 

[Skinsinparadise]

55 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

The premise of my stance is that he is a 1-technique and shouldn't be moving around all that much. That should be his primary role. 

 

I don't care much what the former DCs have done with the roster, to be honest. They returned a net negative on it.

 

I get your point, but mine is from strictly a 1-technique with the correct system surrounding.

 

I used to think Daron Payne would be best playing 0 or 1.  I don't anymore.  He's the best 0-1 on our team.  But I think he'd thrive more at playing 3 because he has good pass rush potential.  Cooley who has studied his play on both spots has said similar things.   To each their own though -- just my opinion. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I used to think Daron Payne would be best playing 0 or 1.  I don't anymore.  He's the best 0-1 on our team.  But I think he'd thrive more at playing 3 because he has good pass rush potential.  Cooley who has studied his play on both spots has said similar things.   To each their own though -- just my opinion. 

 

So, let's keep in mind I'm talking about for the team.

 

I think Payne is a top tier talent on this roster as a 1-technique, and in the league. That's NOT saying he CAN'T play 3-tech. It's saying that he shouldn't be playing 3-tech when we don't really have any other 1-techs on the roster.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

So, let's keep in mind I'm talking about for the team.

 

I think Payne is a top tier talent on this roster as a 1-technique, and in the league. That's NOT saying he CAN'T play 3-tech. It's saying that he shouldn't be playing 3-tech when we don't really have any other 1-techs on the roster.

 

The argument though isn't top tier.  But elite, All Pro, among the best 2-3 players at that spot.

 

I don't think Payne is one of the best 2-3 nose tackles in the league.  And I don't think anyone else out there that does grading has talked about Payne in that way.   He's not IMO a Kenny Clark, or Damon Harrison or heck even Vita Vea from that same draft as a nose.

 

As a 3 technique I think he can really explode.  But yeah Payne is a really good player.  To us he's magic.  Around the league, I don't see him being perceived as the best of the best.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The argument though isn't top tier.  But elite, All Pro, among the best 2-3 players at that spot.

 

I don't think Payne is one of the best 2-3 nose tackles in the league.  And I don't think anyone else out there that does grading has talked about Payne in that way.   He's not IMO a Kenny Clark, or Damon Harrison or heck even Vita Vea from that same draft as a nose.

 

As a 3 technique I think he can really explode.  But yeah Payne is a really good player.  To us he's magic.  Around the league, I don't see him being perceived as the best of the best.

Because he plays for the Redskins.

[wit33]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Just for a degenerate like me are you able to post the grades for the Niners from the 2018 season??

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Because he plays for the Redskins.

 

Nope IMO because he's not as good as Kenny Clark.   PFF among other grading guys put others as distinctly better over Payne (its not even close with PFF by the way) because he plays for the Redskins? 

 

I think we overvalue our own guys because we are fans.  I don't think it's a conspiracy that our guys aren't considered elite.  And it's not because we haven't been good.  Other teams I've pointed out who haven't been hot have had dudes ranked and considered elite. 

 

Trent I think is a good argument for elite.  Guice I think has that potential, McLaurin, too.  

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Just for a degenerate like me are you able to post the grades for the Niners from the 2018 season??

 

I don't know if I can do 2018 like 2019, tried just now and couldn't figure it out.  If you are seeking about improvement from one year to another, Bosa effect, etc.  A guy who covered their team was on Keim's podcast and his thought was it helped their secondary more than anything.  They could play 7 in coverage and opposing Qbs had to get rid of the ball faster.  As for Young, its not that I think he turned pumpkins into Cinderella but I do think he'd help others on the D line reach their potential.   As I am typing this I just heard on the radio that Bosa had 11 pressures yesterday, that's insane.

 

Buckner had their highest grade for any defender at 82.   Armstead was at 74.   

 

 

 

2018

https://247sports.com/nfl/san-fran

Pro Football Focus ranks 49ers secondary worst in the NFL

Here's a look at how Pro Football Focus graded some of the key players in the 49ers secondary this season:

* CB Richard Sherman – 68.9 (No. 48 CB)
* CB K’Waun Williams – 66.7 (No. 59 CB)
* S Jaquiski Tartt – 66.6 (No. 56 S)
* S/CB D.J. Reed – 66.5 (No. 57 S)
* S Antone Exum – 65.3 (No. 61 S)
* CB/S Jimmie Ward – 55.2 (No. 82 S)
* CB Tarvarius Moore – 52.1
* CB Greg Mabin – 48.8
* CB Ahkello Witherspoon – 44.9 (No. 119 CB)
* S Marcell Harris – 40.0 (No. 90 S)
* CB/S Tyvis Powell – 32.1
* S Adrian Colbert – 31.7 (No. 91 S)

[mistertim]

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Nope IMO because he's not as good as Kenny Clarke.   PFF among other grading guys put others as distinctly better over Payne (its not even close with PFF by the way) because he plays for the Redskins? 

 

I think we overvalue our own guys because we are fans.  I don't think it's a conspiracy that our guys aren't considered elite.  And it's not because we haven't been good.  Other teams I've pointed out who haven't been hot have had dudes ranked and considered elite. 

 

Trent I think is a good argument for elite.  Guice I think has that potential, McLaurin, too.  

 

I'd actually add Dunbar in there as well, if he could stay healthy. Didn't PFF have him graded in the mid to high 80s before he was injured?

[KDawg]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Nope IMO because he's not as good as Kenny Clark.   PFF among other grading guys put others as distinctly better over Payne (its not even close with PFF by the way) because he plays for the Redskins? 

 

I think we overvalue our own guys because we are fans.  I don't think it's a conspiracy that our guys aren't considered elite.  And it's not because we haven't been good.  Other teams I've pointed out who haven't been hot have had dudes ranked and considered elite. 

 

Trent I think is a good argument for elite.  Guice I think has that potential, McLaurin, too.  

 

I think we undervalue guys based on PFF, too. 

 

Just saying that PFF doesn't put things into context and literally can't. Numbers don't tell the whole story.

 

We disagree. Completely. So I guess we're going to need to leave it at that for now.

[Koolblue13]

Why aren't Iaon and Settle suited to play 0/1 tech? I assume you could put one of them in at 0/1 and slide Payne over on some downs and leave Allen for the passing downs.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Why aren't Iaon and Settle suited to play 0/1 tech? I assume you could put one of them in at 0/1 and slide Payne over on some downs and leave Allen for the passing downs.

 

Ioannidis could from time to time. I'm not sure on Settle. Not sure how he fits. I want to say he's more of a 3-tech, but I can't get a feel for him. But Ioan does best from a 3-tech spot, so you'd want to limit how much he's in there. But he can do it. I feel Payne is a better 1-tech than anyone on the roster. Again, it's not that others can't - just want to limit some of them in there. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Why aren't Iaon and Settle suited to play 0/1 tech? I assume you could put one of them in at 0/1 and slide Payne over on some downs and leave Allen for the passing downs.

 

They move Payne to 3 as I mentioned from time to time (or at least they did in 2018, I got to rewatch this season) and that's where I think the dude can potentially really shine -- he's a powerful dude but also has really good athleticism for his size.    Settle could play nose, he has the right size-build for it.  Ioannidis IMO is more suited to play 3 but at least in 2018 he did on occasion play nose.

 

 Payne plays mostly nose though (0-1) where you don't maximize his pass rush potential but he is often swallowing up double teams.  I think he's a good nose tackle.  But not one of the top 3 pure nose tackles IMO.   As a 3 technique, I agree with Cooley he could bust out more. 

26 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

We disagree. Completely. So I guess we're going to need to leave it at that for now.

 

My overall point is under Dan with the exception of Trent and Sean we've not done elite players.  So for us to disagree, it would mean you think that's a false narrative and that we've had our share of elite players during his tenure beyond that     If so sure, let's agree to disagree.