What Offer Would Change Your Mind on Trading Down???

[skinny21]

@Skinsinparadise while I don’t think that graphic is particularly... fair? because of the injured secondary, ironically some of them graded higher than the guys they replaced.  

Would be great if guys like Webster/Reaves could actually grab (and upgrade) their respective spots.  Of course, Rivera isn’t going into next season based on that hope, so it’s kind of a moot point, but perhaps they will at least improve our depth so we aren’t screwed when guys are injured.  We can hope anyway.  
 

One thing this staff will bring is accountability - not worrying about loyalty to a draftee - so maybe we even see Webster ahead of Moreau, Reaves ahead of Nicholson or Apke, etc. 

[Malapropismic Depository]

33 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

And I think if you add an elite playmaker to that mix, a guy who has to be accounted for at all times and is a disruptive force, it's going to make that unit much better than just having a better DC and a couple of decent players at other positions if you trade back.

 

That's exactly what happened with SF and Bosa. I don't think it's a coincidence that the highest sack total Arik Armstead ever had in 4 years was 3 then suddenly jumped up to 10 in 2019, and the fact that Bosa was now on that line as well. 

 

May be true, but part of my point was, what about the rest of our team ? The other units don't compare to SF. How long do you expect it to take, to upgrade the rest of our team, so the team as a whole, becomes competitive ?

[mistertim]

13 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

May be true, but part of my point was, what about the rest of our team ? The other units don't compare to SF. How long do you expect it to take, to upgrade the rest of our team, so the team as a whole, becomes competitive ?

 

You fill in your other holes as you go. You don't reach for need and pass up a potentially defense-altering player in the draft because you're worried about not having a guy at another position. That's how you end up with nothing but mediocrity over and over again.

 

As far as how long it takes, it depends on lots of factors. How do our rookie WRs progress? How does our rookie QB progress? How did our draft go this year? Did we get anyone decent in FA? Generally when you're a really young team in the middle or tail end of a rebuild (as we basically are) it will take a couple of years. I'd be incredibly surprised if we went to the playoffs this year.

 

No team is ever really going to be 100% "complete" where each unit is unblemished. It just doesn't happen. Every team is going to have its strengths and weaknesses. My entire point is that you don't pass on a potential game changing level player just because you already have some decent guys at that position. Especially when that position is the second most important one on the field after QB. 

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

@Skinsinparadise while I don’t think that graphic is particularly... fair? because of the injured secondary, ironically some of them graded higher than the guys they replaced.  

Would be great if guys like Webster/Reaves could actually grab (and upgrade) their respective spots.  Of course, Rivera isn’t going into next season based on that hope, so it’s kind of a moot point, but perhaps they will at least improve our depth so we aren’t screwed when guys are injured.  We can hope anyway.  
 

One thing this staff will bring is accountability - not worrying about loyalty to a draftee - so maybe we even see Webster ahead of Moreau, Reaves ahead of Nicholson or Apke, etc. 

 

My point was specific to the D line.  I added the whole defense just in case anyone is curious to look at it.  

 

In theory, we got a monster D line.   We were hyped about Payne and Allen.  And look I think both guys are good.  But neither is great just yet.  And we can't just bank and them eventually becoming great.  It's an if as opposed to a given.  

 

In reality we don't have a Fletcher Cox.  Heck plenty would argue that Dexter Lawrence is better than Jonathan Allen and Tomlinson is better than Payne.   Like I said the Giants DTs are arguably better than ours and they have a pass rusher who produced more than our best did.  And the Giants are considered a bad team.  We aren't blowing the doors off with our current D line.  I like the D line but its not great IMO. 

 

So when you think of this division, let alone the NFL, the Redskins D line is good but not special.   I think we'd have a hard time arguing its the best in the division, and if anything its easier to make the case that the other three teams have better D lines. 

 

So I don't buy into the logic that our D line is really really good with or without someone like Young.   To me this D line is screaming for a dominant player who hopefully will elevate everyone else.

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

May be true, but part of my point was, what about the rest of our team ? The other units don't compare to SF. How long do you expect it to take, to upgrade the rest of our team, so the team as a whole, becomes competitive ?

 

SF in 2018.  

 

https://ninernoise.com/2019/01/09/49ers-secondary-ranked-last-pro-football-focus/

49ers secondary ranked dead last by Pro Football Focus entering 2019

[Renegade7]

Subtle reminder that this is not a Chase Young thread this is a trade down thread, theres already a Chase Young thread.

 

For most part I got what I wanted out of this and dont care what yall do, but is like to come back with who I'd trade down for maybe over the weekend, any trade down with picks expected in the first round should be targeted as well, especially if it costs us getting Young.

 

I mean, at this point i dont see anything about draft pick points anymore for trades even, jus more of the same stuff i see in other threads about why we should pick Young.  

 

I dont like the idea of yall hovering over this thread to shoot down anyone that opposes picking Young, take that to another thread and let this fall off the front page if yall dont want to talk about what you would trade down for if you did. 

 

We spent several pages talking about how to trade down and still get Young, so if yall insist on we have to pick Young, propose trades on how to trade down and still get him or go wear his jersey in some other thread. 

 

I havent seen a single person suggest jus signing someone in specific that can get 10 sacks opposite Sweat yet, I'm disappointed in myself for not even bringing that up as an option now or down the road.  If we gonna suck next year, why do we need that guy now?

[mistertim]

You can't have a discussion about trading out of #2 without having a discussion about Chase Young. The two are directly connected because the question then basically becomes "What offer would change your mind on trading down considering that we are currently in a spot where we'd get a potential once in a decade talent, at the second most important position in football?"

 

You can try to disassociate them from each other but they're attached at the hip. What you'd take for a trade down is directly related to what sort of talent you could have if you didn't do so. 

[Renegade7]

Just now, mistertim said:

You can't have a discussion about trading out of #2 without having a discussion about  Chase Young. The two are directly connected because the question then basically becomes "What offer would change your mind on trading down considering that we are currently in a spot where we'd get a potential once in a decade talent, at the second most important position in football?"

 

You can try to disassociate them from each other but they're attached at the hip. What you'd take for a trade down is directly related to what sort of talent you could have if you didn't do so. 

 

This isnt about disassociating, this is about not dominating the thread with why we cant not take Young.  The OP is about what it would take to change your mind on trading down with an option for trading down and still getting him.  I havent seen that conversation in several pages now.

 

I would say if someone wants to say we have to get Young to discuss how to trade down and still get him and what to do with those we could get by doing so.  That's where I plan to go with this unless no one is interested in that conversation, then what's the point of the thread anymore?

[mh86]

My ideal scenario would be a swap of picks with Detroit and Miami. Something like Detroit getting Miami’s pick, us theirs, and Miami ours. Then just a trade of some lower round picks with Detroit maybe getting a second and us a 3 or 4th. Wishful thinking

[kingdaddy]

25 minutes ago, mh86 said:

My ideal scenario would be a swap of picks with Detroit and Miami. Something like Detroit getting Miami’s pick, us theirs, and Miami ours. Then just a trade of some lower round picks with Detroit maybe getting a second and us a 3 or 4th. Wishful thinking

Proposed 3 team trade:

- Skins get a truckload of picks from Miami, say 3 firsts (picks 5, 18 in 2020 and a first in 2021) and 2 seconds (2020 and 2021) and move back to 5 .

- Detroit gets (pick #5 and 18 from Miami plus a 2021 2nd)

- Miami gets #2 overall in 2020 plus Detroit's 2021 4th.

- Skins are left with #3 overall pick plus Miami's 2nd round pick in 2020.

- Miami takes Tua, Skins take Chase Young, Detroit takes Okudah, Simmons or a QB.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

The 3 team with Miami and Detroit makes a lot of sense but it would take 3 to tango. Maybe Miami moves to 3 by giving 5+26 and then moves from 3 to 2 by giving us 39.
 

in theory everyone wins. 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

The 3 team with Miami and Detroit makes a lot of sense but it would take 3 to tango. Maybe Miami moves to 3 by giving 5+26 and then moves from 3 to 2 by giving us 39.
 

in theory everyone wins. 

 

I mean, it's an interesting thought experiment, but how often does that sort of wonkyness ever actually happen? Especially at the top of the 1st round? Pretty much never. That sort of thing would have to be figured out before hand obviously. 

[Renegade7]

46 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I mean, it's an interesting thought experiment, but how often does that sort of wonkyness ever actually happen? Especially at the top of the 1st round? Pretty much never. That sort of thing would have to be figured out before hand obviously. 

 

How often does someone have three first rounders in the same draft?  

 

I agree a three team trade doesnt have high probability and ain't getting negotiated on draft night. Which is why the conversation is being had now.

 

Honestly, I'm not buying the full scale of Tau or Herbert relevancy until after the combine.  I have a feeling both will make this conversation more palatable.  People get stupid when it comes to franchise QBs, you kinda dont matter without one.

 

Swap with Detroit seems realistic, same with jus dropping down and getting as much as we can.  We need the top three QBs to show being worth a top 5 pick, which isn't impossible. 

 

Btw, this is EXTREMEskins, this is what we do...

[JamesMadisonSkins]

The 3 team would likely need to start with Miami moving from 5 to 3 but with the understanding we swap 2/3 with them or with extreme confidence we are going to take Chase and not trade. 
 

the price for 2/3 only goes up as we get closer to the draft so I could see the Dolphins making a move prior to draft day, which would give them time to negotiate with us. 
 

even if the tea leaves say we are going Chase, I feel like Miami at 3 wins in getting either Tua or Herbert and if they really want Tua they could opt to and if we somehow opt to trade out to someone like Vegas or Carolina or LAC ... Miami knows they can provide a better package because whatever they offer includes our ability to draft Chase 

 

So in short, Miami could/should trade to 3 between now and draft week (like we did with RG3) because it’ll cost less and If they feel good about both QBs they know they can get one. And If they perceive we are open to trading (or we call and say hey just give us 3 and a late 2 and you can secure your guy) then they do it. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Miami negotiates with Detroit post combine. Likely will want to see how Tua looks with medical. 
 

offer 5, 26 and a 5th to go from 5 to 3. 
 

that leaves them at 3 with 18, 39, 56 and both 3rds. Plenty of draft capital to move to 2 if they decide to secure their guy 

[kingdaddy]

49 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Miami negotiates with Detroit post combine. Likely will want to see how Tua looks with medical. 
 

offer 5, 26 and a 5th to go from 5 to 3. 
 

that leaves them at 3 with 18, 39, 56 and both 3rds. Plenty of draft capital to move to 2 if they decide to secure their guy 

Makes sense in many ways....if it does happen like this we just need to publicly fall in love with Tua. Fly Air Force Dan to see Tua multiple times....let it be known that we are in the market for a QB and see if they start calling us. See if they panic and offer us a two 1sts and a 2nd to move up with one of the 1sts being in 2021. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

33 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Makes sense in many ways....if it does happen like this we just need to publicly fall in love with Tua. Fly Air Force Dan to see Tua multiple times....let it be known that we are in the market for a QB and see if they start calling us. See if they panic and offer us a two 1sts and a 2nd to move up with one of the 1sts being in 2021. 

I don't agree with that approach, per se. You could certainly tell Dwayne behind the scenes that it's all smoke. But I think that's still a risky move.

 

Instead, I would prefer to make it known that the #2 pick is up for sale to anyone who wants Tua or Herbert. Or at least lead the bread crumbs to that concept. As long as we make it seem like #2 is for sale for the right price, it gives Miami the extra motivation to move up. Miami isn't dumb. They probably can't say for certain that we won't trade out for the right offer. But they also might want to eliminate any threat of us doing so ... and leverage the fact that we could still get Chase at #3 to lower the price of moving up.

 

Again, I would personally take a 3 and 4 to do so. But I could see us getting a 2nd for it if the market is hot enough and the rumors are strong enough.

 

"Chargers are rumored to be offering their 1/2/3 this year and 1/2 in 2021 to Washington to move up to #2 to take Tua"

 

"We are hearing in league circles that the Raiders are likely to offer 12, 19, their two 3rds and a 2021 2nd round pick to entice Washington to move out of #2"

 

Now MIami might like both Tua and Herbert. But if Tua is their guy, and they're at #3, these rumors would likely cause them to pick up the phone and offer us a pick or two to move back 1 spot.

 

*Note: This has to happen for Miami to trade up either way. But I only really care about making the trade if it's from their #3 spot if they move up.

 

I have run mocks with 5/18/26 and I just don't love the return. Even if that #5 pick is Isaiah Simmons.

[mistertim]

Unless Tua is fully 100% healthy and can do drills at the combine and pro day and wows people, I really don't see Miami giving up a ton to get him. They are likely to be able to get him at 5. And if they like Tua and Herbert they are almost 100% guaranteed to get one of them without giving up their stockpile of picks. People learned from the RG3 trade. That trade crippled us for years. Sure, if Tua hadn't had his injury and didn't have an injury history then he could be worth it but with that injury history now teams are going to be wary of giving up a bunch for him. I said it would have to be at least the RG3 trade for me to consider it. Which means it won't happen. Nobody is going to give up 3 1sts + more. 

[skinny21]

Using TDN’s mock draft simulator, if I traded Miami for 1.5, 1.18 and 2.7, I could land Isaiah Simmons, CeeDee Lamb, and Trevon Diggs (lot of interesting guys were available here - safeties Winfield Jr and Ashtyn Davis, Edge guys like Weaver, Grenard and Baun, etc.)

 

I think those picks (even knowing the 2nd round guy might only compete for a starting role/serve as depth), I’m hard pressed to not take it.  That’s a huge jump in expectations about the SAM role, and Simmons’ ability to pass rush and set the edge takes a bit of the sting off losing Young’s contributions.  
 

The potential of Lamb playing opposite Terry would be incredible.  If Terry missed any time, I’m happy with Lamb and Harmon with Sims in the slot.  
 

That’s two player with a strong promise for pro bowl type seasons that are serious upgrades (especially at SAM).  Diggs is likely an upgrade from Moreau by year two, if not immediately - another big area of need.  Should improve our depth at the very least.  

Replace Lamb (as I believe he’ll be gone by then) with Ruggs and Diggs with, say Weaver... I’m a lot less enthused by the trade.  
 

So, to answer the OP, I think it would take Miami’s 1.5, 2.7, next year’s 1st (probably a top 10?) and a couple mid round picks.   Miami gets their qb, and still has 2 1sts and a 2nd.  We get 1 instant starter at a huge positions of need (Simmons), 3 other early-mid rd picks that likely land us a starter or 2, and we still have 6 more mid-late round picks.  Plus the 1st next year.  

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@skinny21 I also ran a similar situation on TDN but got 5, 18 and 39 ... I got Simmons, Ruggs and DIggs. Similar to you. I like it, but I still don't love it, especially since I think adding Bradberry in FA seems likely and that solidifies CB pretty well. Not ruling out adding another CB early when we have the picks to do so, but just not sure I like that scenario over just taking Chase. Ruggs would be a very nice add at WR. But I just don't know if they collectively improve the team as much as adding Chase would.

[skinny21]

32 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@skinny21 I also ran a similar situation on TDN but got 5, 18 and 39 ... I got Simmons, Ruggs and DIggs. Similar to you. I like it, but I still don't love it, especially since I think adding Bradberry in FA seems likely and that solidifies CB pretty well. Not ruling out adding another CB early when we have the picks to do so, but just not sure I like that scenario over just taking Chase. Ruggs would be a very nice add at WR. But I just don't know if they collectively improve the team as much as adding Chase would.

That’s what I keep coming back to - the effect FA has on the draft.  
In a vacuum, Simmons, Ruggs and Diggs are great pieces to add in that there’s a good chance all 3 start, and a good chance all 3 are big upgrades (especially Simmons of course).  
If Bradberry and AJ Green are in the fold though, that draft loses a lot of its luster.  Still good, but not worth passing on Young.  
 

Now I don’t want to necessarily use the draft for need, but I’m intrigued by the idea of only chasing blue chippers in FA.  Say, Harris, Hooper, Bradberry and resign Scherff.  At that point, a trade down might be in our best interest - more competition at various spots, and a chance at finding more starters.  
After the draft, you can maybe use some leftover money to sign a couple/few mid tier guys as competition for the uncertain spots.  
 

This sort of goes against the idea of filling your holes prior to the draft.  OTOH, I think philosophically, most of us would prefer we re-sign our blue chip guys (and maybe dependable reds) and let everyone else walk... so maybe we should treat FA the same way?

[cakmoney61]

The more I think about it the more unbelievable it sounds.  Miami will not be trading three first-round picks to move up three spots to draft an injured QB who may never play at the level he could have had he not gotten injured.  Neither do I believe Miami will trade two 1st-round picks and a second nor any other combination of picks that include two 1st-round picks.  They have too many holes to mortgage their future so irresponsibly.

 

At this time, I suspect the Redskins eagerly plan to draft Chase Young.  It would take something outrageous to pry the #2 pick from their hands and I don't think it will be coming from the Dolphins.  Who else other than the Dolphins can move them off the pick?  That team would have to give up a boatload of high draft picks and an outstanding player or two off their current roster and I don't see that happening.  The only trade they might do is swapping with Detroit, if they are convinced Detroit won't take Chase Young.

 

The Redskins need to remain ready and prepared for any scenario to include Chase being drafted by the Bengals.  All bets are off if that happens.  Realistically, I'd put the chance of the Redskins drafting Chase Young anywhere from 95 to 100% .

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, cakmoney61 said:

The more I think about it the more unbelievable it sounds.  Miami will not be trading three first-round picks to move up three spots to draft an injured QB who may never play at the level he could have had he not gotten injured.  Neither do I believe Miami will trade two 1st-round picks and a second.  They have too many holes to mortgage their future so irresponsibly.

 

At this time, I suspect the Redskins eagerly plan to draft Chase Young.  It would take something outrageous to pry the #2 pick from their hands.  It won't be coming from the Dolphins.  Who else other than the Dolphins can move them off the pick?  That team would have to give up a boatload of high draft picks and an outstanding player or two off their current roster and I don't see that happening.  The only trade they might do is swapping with Detroit, if they are convinced Detroit isn't taking Chase Young.

 

The Redskins need to remain ready and prepared for any scenario to include Chase being drafted by the Bengals.  All bets are off if that happens.  Realistically, I'd put the chance of the Redskins drafting Chase Young at 95%.

 

 

Youre probably right, and this will probably be the easiest 1, 2, 3, and 5 picks to predict.  I dont include the Giants because they likely take a Tackle, which one is anyones guess.  It is very likely it goes

 

1.Burrow

2.Young

3.Okudah

4.Offensive Tackle

5. Tua

 

That predictability is what drives all these, at least in my mind, scenarios to add a level of intrigue.  Thats what makes all these conversations fun.. and as you dig into the debates, some of them dont seem as far fetched.  The combine is going to shift some things with guys like Simmons and Ruggs getting a lot of attention because of their physical traits, but the top 5 is likely already written...  but.. maybe not 😉

[Warhead36]

The Dolphins have NO incentive to trade up. They know nobody else is trading up for Tua and they know nobody ahead of them is taking him. The Lions aren't going QB, Patricia on the hot seat and he's not wasting a top 3 pick that can help him win now on a project and obviously the Giants at 4 aren't going QB.

 

Hell they might even wait till their 18th pick and still have Tua available.

[kingdaddy]

6 hours ago, cakmoney61 said:

The more I think about it the more unbelievable it sounds.  Miami will not be trading three first-round picks to move up three spots to draft an injured QB who may never play at the level he could have had he not gotten injured.  Neither do I believe Miami will trade two 1st-round picks and a second nor any other combination of picks that include two 1st-round picks.  They have too many holes to mortgage their future so irresponsibly.

 

At this time, I suspect the Redskins eagerly plan to draft Chase Young.  It would take something outrageous to pry the #2 pick from their hands and I don't think it will be coming from the Dolphins.  Who else other than the Dolphins can move them off the pick?  That team would have to give up a boatload of high draft picks and an outstanding player or two off their current roster and I don't see that happening.  The only trade they might do is swapping with Detroit, if they are convinced Detroit won't take Chase Young.

 

The Redskins need to remain ready and prepared for any scenario to include Chase being drafted by the Bengals.  All bets are off if that happens.  Realistically, I'd put the chance of the Redskins drafting Chase Young anywhere from 95 to 100% .

There is a loooong way to go with regards to how highly valued Tua is going to be....He may have a pro day and show that he is fully recovered and ready to roll, or, he may not workout and teams will have more questions than answers about him. If he has a pro day and kills it, there could be many teams trying to move up to get him....same goes with the other QB's, maybe teams fall in love with one of them over Tua? It's all speculation right now....hell, maybe something comes out on Chase and he drops hard? We've seen it happen many times before.