What Offer Would Change Your Mind on Trading Down???

[TysonM]

The Giants have the fourth pick.

 

While it is not highly likely that teams would pass on Chase Young twice at #2 and #3, the prospect of the Giants getting their Lawrence Taylor at #4 is a hell NO for me, so that's why I voted against trading down.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, TysonM said:

The Giants have the fourth pick.

 

While it is not highly likely that teams would pass on Chase Young twice at #2 and #3, the prospect of the Giants getting their Lawrence Taylor at #4 is a hell NO for me, so that's why I voted against trading down.

 

No chance Chase Young gets past 3. None. If Miami traded with us to move up to 2 then either 

 

1) The Lions do a victory celebration that they get the best pass rushing prospect in the last 10 years because their pass rush is was so atrocious.

 

or

 

2) NYG makes a big offer to the Lions to move up to 3 and take CY. Then the Lions could get some extra picks and still get an elite talent in Okuda or maybe Simmons. Then everyone laughs at us for taking a few picks to give our division rivals a generational talent at EDGE. 

 

 

[Renegade7]

11 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

No chance Chase Young gets past 3. None. If Miami traded with us to move up to 2 then either 

 

1) The Lions do a victory celebration that they get the best pass rushing prospect in the last 10 years because their pass rush is was so atrocious.

 

or

 

2) NYG makes a big offer to the Lions to move up to 3 and take CY. Then the Lions could get some extra picks and still get an elite talent in Okuda or maybe Simmons. Then everyone laughs at us for taking a few picks to give our division rivals a generational talent at EDGE. 

 

So are still convinced Stafford's back is perfectly fine and nothing for the Lions to worry about?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

If we opt to trade down. Whether it’s one spot to Detroit and get Chase, or all the way back with Miami, I think it’s pivotal to add draft capital in 2021. Just a thought. It’s easy to want picks immediately but I think there’s huge value in adding future picks as well. Having 2 firsts in 2021 would go a long way to re-stocking talent. I’m thinking mainly OT. Having 2 firsts and 2 seconds next year would be amazing. It would be a year down the road when you know what you’ve got a bit more under a new staff and can probably be spent more effectively than they would this year. 
 

I’m asking for Miami’s 5, 18, their 3rd and 5th and a 2021 1st and 2nd. 
 

I then try and trade 5 and 18 back to 3 and get Chase and pocket 3/5 this year and a 1/2 next year. Total maximization of your draft position. But it comes with risk since you may end up stuck at 5 and let Chase go to Detroit. 
 

But having the ability to draft Simmons and Epenesa at 5/18 and netting 3/5 and 1/2 in 2021 is a decent consolation prize. I’m all in on ChSe though so hard for me to really get on board with this 

[ArtMonkwastheman]

The more I see updates on our players being released, the more I'm waiting to see free agent signings before I comment. That said, I am thinking maybe we trade back if possible and hopefully get a shot at Simmons or Okudah and then get a shot at a first round Oline or a TE. I really think any of the three (Young, Simmons, Okudah) are possibly stars for years. If we could drop and pick up another first and somehow get a second/ early 3rd it may better us for later. I don't know the math on getting a second/early 3rd so feel free to correct me. Maybe we trade someone for a early third...

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

So are still convinced Stafford's back is perfectly fine and nothing for the Lions to worry about?

 

I'm somewhat convinced of a few of things when it comes to Stafford/the Lions/Tua. Obviously some of these are repeats. And obviously I could be wrong and the Lions could absolutely be convinced that Tua is better and that he'll be fully healthy and be able to stay healthy. 

 

1) I think Stafford's injury is far less worrisome than Tua's seeing as how he apparently played with it for almost a year before finally being forced onto IR to heal. Tua's meant he couldn't even walk. Stafford also has no injury history like Tua does. 

 

2) Stafford was playing at an All-Pro level before they finally shut him down once they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. He's a proven NFL QB who was likely playing his best football to date. He's not young but he's not old for a QB at 32.

 

3) The Lions would be $32 million deep in dead cap if they got rid of Stafford. They also have an absolutely awful defense and will never be a contender until they start to address it. Stafford can play at an All-Pro level but if their defense is bottom of the league, especially against the pass, then they'll win the occasional shootout but will never consistently be able get beyond mediocrity. Their QB is their best player; why get rid of him?

[Renegade7]

57 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm somewhat convinced of a few of things when it comes to Stafford/the Lions/Tua. Obviously some of these are repeats. And obviously I could be wrong and the Lions could absolutely be convinced that Tua is better and that he'll be fully healthy and be able to stay healthy. 

 

1) I think Stafford's injury is far less worrisome than Tua's seeing as how he apparently played with it for almost a year before finally being forced onto IR to heal. Tua's meant he couldn't even walk. Stafford also has no injury history like Tua does. 

 

This is why I keep saying we should focus on the combine results, because saying Tua's situation is worse then Staffords doesnt do justice to the focus of replacing Stafford as the point.  This could be Herbert. I think it will be if they go this route, because it makes sense to say they wouldnt replace and injured QB with an injured QB.  We should step away from focusing on the Lions replacing Stafford with Tua because you are right it doesnt make sense.

 

57 minutes ago, mistertim said:

2) Stafford was playing at an All-Pro level before they finally shut him down once they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. He's a proven NFL QB who was likely playing his best football to date. He's not young but he's not old for a QB at 32.

 

All the more reason to get the most draft capital they can now while they can.  They are bad enough that they arent building around him, they are rebuilding around him.

 

57 minutes ago, mistertim said:

3) The Lions would be $32 million deep in dead cap if they got rid of Stafford. They also have an absolutely awful defense and will never be a contender until they start to address it. Stafford can play at an All-Pro level but if their defense is bottom of the league, especially against the pass, then they'll win the occasional shootout but will never consistently be able get beyond mediocrity. Their QB is their best player; why get rid of him?

 

You answered your own question and I tried to expanded on that in my previous answers in this post.  Get the draft capital now and do an actual rebuild.

[Skinsinparadise]

I'd feel the same, if I were an NFC East team.   Until we overtook the Giants for the #2 pick, I was whining to no end about the Giants potentially ending up with Chase.

 

 

 

[skinny21]

Regarding the idea of the Lions trading Stafford, my impression is that they’d have to eat all bonus money, meaning financially it’s the same as releasing him (a 32mil cap hit).  
The flip side of this is that any team trading for him now has a very attractive 3 year contract for a very good qb.  So the question becomes, what kind of compensation could the Lions get in return?  Two 1sts?  I’d think the Chargers, Raiders, Bucs and maybe one or two others might consider it...

 

For them, while that cap hit is enormous, the prospect of getting themselves a talent like Tua on a rookie contract, adding some serious picks, and having Stafford’s cap off the books in 2021 has to make them at least consider it... right?

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

This is why I keep saying we should focus on the combine results, because saying Tua's situation is worse then Staffords doesnt do justice to the focus of replacing Stafford as the point.  This could be Herbert. I think it will be if they go this route, because it makes sense to say they wouldnt replace and injured QB with an injured QB.  We should step away from focusing on the Lions replacing Stafford with Tua because you are right it doesnt make sense.

 

 

All the more reason to get the most draft capital they can now while they can.  They are bad enough that they arent building around him, they are rebuilding around him.

 

 

You answered your own question and I tried to expanded on that in my previous answers in this post.  Get the draft capital now and do an actual rebuild.

 

Fair point about focusing on the combine.

 

Regarding trading Stafford and rebuilding...why can't you build around Stafford? He's 32, not 42. With general QB longevity in this day and age if he comes back completely healthy there's no reason to think he doesn't have another 4-5 good years in him. Hell, we were basically trying to build around a 34 year old Alex Smith, and Stafford is a far better QB than Smith was IMO. 

 

They have a proven NFL QB who's middle of the road age-wise, and who was playing at an extremely high level before they deactivated him so he could heal from a lingering injury. Their offense was looking ok. Their defense was atrocious. If they had a decent defense they'd be a playoff team IMO. If they can get some quality pieces in place there they wouldn't need a complete rebuild, just build up their D. It could be done in a year or two (look at the Niners).

 

On the other hand, if they move on from Stafford, eat that dead cap, take a chance on a rookie QB, and whiff on the pick...they're absolutely ****ed. Tons of cap being eaten, a bust (or just worse than Stafford) top QB pick that they gave up draft picks to move up for, and still with an atrocious defense. Someone is absolutely getting fired at that point. Then you'd HAVE to completely rebuild and that's kicking off another 3-4 year cycle. 

 

I think in order to justify taking a QB (or moving up for one) they'd have to be absolutely convinced that he's about as sure-fire as you can get; an absolute blue chip borderline can't miss QB. A guy that you simply cannot pass up on. That's a Luck or Lawrence level QB prospect. And IMO there simply isn't one of those in this draft.

[Renegade7]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Fair point about focusing on the combine.

 

Ya, it's going be hard for me to adjust or change my current position without new information that would be provided from the combine, I'll at least better understand what I'm dealing with in regards to how the QB prospects are rated.

 

I'm opening to changing my mind or admiting I'm wrong, the combine will help weigh that.

 

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Regarding trading Stafford and rebuilding...why can't you build around Stafford?

 

Until we agree on the severity of Staffords back issue, we are going to go in circles around each other.  That's not a shot at you, that's a pattern in our interactions on this topic in this thread. 

 

I'm open to having my mind changed, that's why I asked for articles to counter what I've already posted here.  That's not going to be easy because of conflicting information and the amount of pragmatic denial by the Lions and Stafford.  It's a lot of smoke, man, if I was the Lions based on what's been verified by reputable sources I'd cut my loses instead of gambling on even being revelant before Stafford is considered old or loses anymore trade value then he already has.

[OVCChairman]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Regarding trading Stafford and rebuilding...why can't you build around Stafford? He's 32, not 42.

 

Current Contract

 (📝: indicates contract trigger occuring during that year)

Year	Age	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Roster Bonus	Workout Bonus		Guaranteed Salary		Cap Number	Cap %		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)RestructureExtension
Total		$53,800,000	$68,700,000	$38,000,000	$2,500,000		$36,000,000		$157,000,000
2017	29	$1,000,000	$15,500,000	$0	$0		$1,000,000		$16,500,000	9.9%
2018	30	$9,500,000	$10,000,000	$6,500,000	$500,000		$16,000,000		$26,500,000	15.0%
2019 📝	31	$13,500,000	$11,200,000	$5,500,000	$500,000		$19,000,000		$30,700,000	16.3%
2020	32	$7,800,000	$13,000,000	$6,000,000	$500,000		$0		$21,300,000	10.7%		$32,000,000	($10,700,000)
2021 📝	33	$9,500,000	$13,000,000	$10,000,000	$500,000		$0		$33,000,000	--		$19,000,000	$14,000,000
2022 📝	34	$12,500,000	$3,000,000	$10,000,000	$500,000		$0		$26,000,000	--		$6,000,000	$20,000,000
2023	35	$0	$3,000,000	$0	$0		$0		$3,000,000	--		$3,000,000	$0

 

 

We've gone back and forth so I wont hash the whole thing, but i will respond to this particular part. 

The reason you consider not rebuilding around Stafford, is because you look at 2021 and if you were to release him AFTER this season, his number goes from $62 mil over the final 3 years, to $19 mil over the final 3 years.  That makes me ask myself, is Stafford at $62 mil better than Tua on a rookie deal (Bosa got around $33 mil total over 4 seasons), and the additional cap space to build with.  

 

Year	Age	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Roster Bonus		Guaranteed Salary		Cap Number	Cap %		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)RestructureExtension
Total		$2,520,000	$22,421,356	$8,610,480		$11,130,480		$33,551,836
2019	22	$495,000	$5,605,339	$0		$495,000		$6,100,339	3.2%
2020 📝	23	$585,000	$5,605,339	$1,435,085		$2,020,085		$7,625,424	3.8%		$27,451,497	($19,826,073)
2021 📝	24	$675,000	$5,605,339	$2,870,170		$3,545,170		$9,150,509	--		$19,826,073	($10,675,564)
2022 📝	25	$765,000	$5,605,339	$4,305,225		$5,070,225		$10,675,564	--		$10,675,564	$0

 

 

This is Bosa's breakdown, he likely is the closest being the no. 2 overall pick.  It likely goes up a little bit, but so does the cap.  You save ~$6 mil in 2021,  ~$11 mil in 2022, and you now have your QB under control for 5 years instead of 2 (I don't see Stafford agreeing to play 2023 at that number, he would be demanding a new deal or retiring)

 

 

Full disclosure, I thought the savings would be much more, but digging more and more into this, I actually find myself punching holes in my original opinion.  The money (or lack of savings) may end up forcing Detroit to hold out another couple seasons with Stafford, even IF they want to move on.. 

[Renegade7]

I'd say the money only matters in the immediate sense if the Lions plan to compete in the immediate sense, then argue they wont compete in the immediate sense even if they keep Stafford.

 

It is a bullet being bitten here moving him, there's no other way around it, that's true.

[KillBill26]

7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

So are still convinced Stafford's back is perfectly fine and nothing for the Lions to worry about?

If any GM took Herbert over CY, they should be fired before Herbert holds up his jersey on stage.

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, KillBill26 said:

If any GM took Herbert over CY, they should be fired before Herbert holds up his jersey on stage.

 

Unless Lions plan on having a top 2 pick for a QB next year.  I see your point in regards to player value, and looking for Herbert possibly shooting up draft boards to see if the conversation changes. 

 

Having Young wont matter without a QB, he'll be the next JJ Watt. Jus helpless bounced out the playoffs when he makes it because of most of his career having horrible QB play.

 

I wouldnt blame the Lions for taking Young over a QB if they got rid if Stafford, but theyd have no one to blame but themselves once he feels wasted and possibly wants out.

[KillBill26]

13 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Unless Lions plan on having a top 2 pick for a QB next year.  I see your point in regards to player value, and looking for Herbert possibly shooting up draft boards to see if the conversation changes. 

 

Having Young wont matter without a QB, he'll be the next JJ Watt. Jus helpless bounced out the playoffs when he makes it because of most of his career having horrible QB play.

 

I wouldnt blame the Lions for taking Young over a QB if they got rid if Stafford, but theyd have no one to blame but themselves once he feels wasted and possibly wants out.

Herbert seems to be getting mixed reviews. Some drool when they look at his size and arm, others question his leadership and performance vs good teams. 

 

I understand the bengals taking burrow, and I can understand a team trading into #2 to take tua if all his medical reports continue to come back positive.  Herbert just seems to have too many question marks to justify passing on a pass rusher like CY.  

 

Generally speaking, as far as team building goes, I'd take the top tier pass rusher when my team has a huge need there, over a non top tier QB every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  As you alluded to, the Lions will probably be picking fairly high next season, with Lawrence and Fields being superior prospects to Herbert.  You may even have Newman and Mond being on par with Herbert as a prospect.  Knowing I'm getting better value with CY over Herbert now, and a very good shot at getting at least a similar QB prospect next year, I would be in confident in that approach.  

[mistertim]

I can see the logic behind the Lions thinking they may have a high pick next draft, but things can change pretty quickly. If the Lions get a couple of good pieces for their defense and Stafford comes back and plays the way he was, I could see them doing way better than they did this past season. Banking on having a high pick in the future is pretty risky. 

 

As far as the money breakdown between Stafford's contract and a rookie Tua's contract...it really depends on how they evaluate Tua. Do they truly believe he's close to a "can't miss" prospect? Do they truly believe that, even if he fully heals from his injury, he'll be the same guy on the field that he was before? Do they truly believe that he can stay healthy? Stafford is more expensive, but he's also a known quantity who was playing very well before they packed him up and has no injury history before this.

 

They'd have to weigh those things against each other when making that decision.

 

As far as Herbert, I could possibly see him moving up the draft boards a bit but I've never been all that impressed with his game when I've watched him. He has great size and some great tools but he can be very inconsistent in his accuracy, footwork, and in dealing with pressure. He doesn't really go through progressions that well, but that could be more an artefact of the type of offense Oregon runs. 

[Renegade7]

22 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd feel the same, if I were an NFC East team.   Until we overtook the Giants for the #2 pick, I was whining to no end about the Giants potentially ending up with Chase.

 

 

 

I'm coming close to the acceptance stage of grief right now

 

 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

I'm coming close to the acceptance stage of grief right now

 

 

"Grief" because we're more than likely selecting Chase Young? 🤔

[Renegade7]

30 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

"Grief" because we're more than likely selecting Chase Young? 🤔

 

Because of how much of the fan base wanted to lose to Dallas to get him.  I'll never forget how fans that disagreed with that logic were treated in many cases as not real fans.  I maintained we were probably going to get creamed anyway, so no need to root for it and go after those that didnt, but that wasnt good enough. 

 

This was worse then when I started the thread before the last home game before drafting Griffin asking how many fans wanted us to lose to the Vikings. That was my first real clue that something was terribly wrong here and not getting better, fan canibalizism was getting worse it's what killed any chance of a protest.

 

Chase Young is going to be a Redskin. This thread is because I like talking with yall, but I dont know what it means to be a Redskins fan anymore.  It was always bigger then winning, otherwise I would've left a long time ago.  I never thought we could get more mad at each other then Snyder. That's a conversation for another thread, but that's what I'm thinking right now looking at the poll results versus how folks were talking in the heat of the moment when losing to Dallas was inevtible anyway.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Because of how much of the fan base wanted to lose to Dallas to get him.  I'll never forget how fans that disagreed with that logic were treated in many cases as not real fans.  I maintained we were probably going to get creamed anyway, so no need to root for it and go after those that didnt, but that wasnt good enough. 

 

 

I definitely wanted a loss.

 

But I wouldn't question the fandom of those who wanted a win.

 

Now what I would question is that person's ability to be "strategic" and take a long view approach.

 

Sometimes you have to lose a battle or two in order to ultimately win the war.

[Renegade7]

2 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

I definitely wanted a loss.

 

But I wouldn't question the fandom of those who wanted a win.

 

Now what I would question is that person's ability to be "strategic" and take a long view approach.

 

Sometimes you have to lose a battle or two in order to ultimately win the war.

 

Fair, but at what cost?  In wars, that's lives.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Fair, but at what cost?  In wars, that's lives.

In sticking with the analogy: Chase Young will save more lives and win the war.😀

[Renegade7]

2 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

In sticking with the analogy: Chase Young will save more lives and win the war.😀

 

Ends justify the means, huh? So will endlessly sending your troops into battle without guns because you dont have enough and only advantage you have over the enemy is population and weather : )

 

To keep from this going in a direction that will get tailgaty, the fan base needs a reconciliation that probably only winning can make possible.  We've lost two generations of fans, gored out many of the die hards, and many of the remainders for the most part took what energy they had left and put it into someone who hasnt played a down yet instead of the folks that caused it.

 

Thats because what remains of the fan base is f'n exhausted, and that's more then fair, I am, too.  We should've been able to have this thread and conversation back in December, but we couldnt, and that bothers me.  But again, I tend to overanalyze things and know when it works we'll move on like it never happened and everything will work out fine.  Aka, I'll be here regardless.

 

And for the record, I wont be mad when we draft Young, but I still believe trading down and finding a 10+ sack guy opposite Sweat is the better way to go for the Franchise.  It's the most efficient way to get the most out of that #2 pick, especially when we are 3-13 and dont have a second rounder this year. 

 

I hope yall are right about this guy, but I'll never agree with how we got here being worth it.  I'm going to take this flag down in my living room not because I'm going to change how I follow the team, because I've had to do soul searching in what it means to be a fellow fan.  I'll put it somewhere else when I get a bigger place, it is a flag after all, but where the fan base is versus where I thought it was or hoped it was broke me. 

 

That not a shot at anyone, I'm jus an idealist transitioning into a realist.

[tmandoug1]

Is Tua an elite? Is he the next Tom brady............Brady or Lawrence Taylor? Hmmmmmm