BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[NoVaSkins21]

5 hours ago, visionary said:

 

 

The excuses and lies with Drumpf will never end.  That's all he has has and will ever have about this crisis.

[Bacon]

5 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Am I right in thinking that, ultimately, the antibody test will be a better indicator of our national “health/status” than just endlessly testing everybody all the time?

 

Seriously, I’m asking...

 

Honest opinion: would it be a waste of money for me to get an antibody test right now? They're offering them here. I was in the LA school system until mid February. Very possible that I picked something up along the way.

 

On the other hand, are these tests even reliable? If they're only 90% accurate with a significant chance of throwing out a false positive, I might just wait. 

[spjunkies]

 

[TheGoodBits]

34 minutes ago, Bacon said:

 

Honest opinion: would it be a waste of money for me to get an antibody test right now? They're offering them here. I was in the LA school system until mid February. Very possible that I picked something up along the way.

 

On the other hand, are these tests even reliable? If they're only 90% accurate with a significant chance of throwing out a false positive, I might just wait. 

I would wait until we know more about reliability of specific tests, and also about whether the presence of antibodies does protect you from a second infection. 

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

Pretty sure that 56,000 projection is probably too low...

 

Yeah I think the models that only show between 60-65k deaths by the middle of May can pretty much be disregarded, seeing as how we're probably going to hit 60k by tomorrow. 

 

This is one of the newer models that's predicting a mean total of 153,373 deaths by August 4th with the range being between 87,409 and 302,324 deaths, depending on how strictly social distancing and stay at home is followed.   😧

 

https://covid19-projections.com/us

[zCommander]

9 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

I would wait until we know more about reliability of specific tests, and also about whether the presence of antibodies does protect you from a second infection. 

 

They way antibodies work is that your immune system makes it when you get an infection. So if you get the same infection again the immune system doesn't need to make 2000 antibodies per second to come up with the key to kill the virus. It already has the key from your previous infection. Hence the immunization your body has created for any future attacks for that particular infection. 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by zskins

[TheGoodBits]

28 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

They way antibodies work is that your immune system makes it when you get an infection. So if you get the same infection again the immune system doesn't need to make 2000 antibodies per second to come up with the key to kill the virus. It already has the key from your previous infection. Hence the immunization your body has created for any future attacks for that particular infection. 

 

 

It’s too early to say what degree of protection you have against a second infection. Hasn’t been studied. 
 

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19

[The Sisko]

10 hours ago, TheDoyler23 said:

My wife stocked up on meat from Costco a couple weeks ago and I, of course, condescended that we weren't going to have shortages and that panic buying is bad for everyone. 

 

Damn, I hate when she's right. 

You must not have been married very long. You should know the first rule of a happy marriage. The answer to every question is “Yes Dear”.🙂

Edited April 29, 2020 by The Sisko

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spjunkies]

 

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

It’s too early to say what degree of protection you have against a second infection. Hasn’t been studied. 
 

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19

 

The article is basically saying what I have already said. The only difference is they have not devised a test (like you said) to test people on the second infection and the antibodies they have already produced. That doesn't mean the person's immune system can't re-defend itself again. The key is already made and that is a fact of the human immune system. Just because you can't see the results doesn't mean it is not there. 

 

Now, with that said, it is still crucial that the person who is recovered doesn't think that is it. They might have the immunity but the people around them or people they might work with or whatever might not have the same immunity.  it is no different than when you get the flu or a cold is that you sneeze in your arm and not spread it all over the place with your hands. This is to prevent someone not sick to get sick. But covid-19 is a vicious version of the coronavirus family. if a person who has never been infected can have a hard time coming up with antibodies quickly if their immune system is weak or compromised and could lead them to death. This is why coming up with the vaccine quickly is important. It is to protect the people who don't have it and to give them a defense when they do get the viral infection. 

[spjunkies]

Great chronicle of the experience, pretty damn scary. Long, but worth watching. 

 

 

[Wildbunny]

2 hours ago, The Sisko said:

You must not have been married very long. You should know the first rule of a happy marriage. The answer to every question is “Yes Dear”.🙂

If the question is "Did you cheat on me with that ****?" Then "Yes Dear" is definately not the right answer.

 

But otherwise I agree

[visionary]

 

 

 

[Bacon]

There has been a lot of discussion lately about the role of blood coagulation and blood pressure in severe COVID-19 cases. Many critically ill patients are experiencing clots and heart attacks. Well, check this out:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

Quote

 

Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had Vitamin D insufficiency (VDI). Coagulopathy was present in 62.5% of ICU COVID-19 patients, and 92.3% were lymphocytopenic. 

 

Conclusions: VDI is highly prevalent in severe COVID-19 patients. VDI and severe COVID-19 share numerous associations including hypertension, obesity, male sex, advanced age, concentration in northern climates, coagulopathy, and immune dysfunction. Thus, we suggest that prospective, randomized controlled studies of VDI in COVID-19 patients are warranted.

 

 

This is very interesting because scientists have been trying to connect vitamin D deficiency to hypertension for decades now. That connection is poorly understood, but it might be time to take another look. Perhaps this is a matter of correlation and not causation. It does strike me as interesting that the ethnic group suffering from the highest rate of COVID-19 fatalities, African Americans, also experiences the highest frequency of vitamin D insufficiency.

 

I would love to hear from anyone in this thread with a medical background on this because I find it to be incredibly interesting.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Bacon

[visionary]

 

[LD0506]

Mayo Clinic visited by Human Equivalent of Mayo.

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah I think the models that only show between 60-65k deaths by the middle of May can pretty much be disregarded, seeing as how we're probably going to hit 60k by tomorrow. 

 

This is one of the newer models that's predicting a mean total of 153,373 deaths by August 4th with the range being between 87,409 and 302,324 deaths, depending on how strictly social distancing and stay at home is followed.   😧

 

https://covid19-projections.com/us

 

 

Definitely seems more accurate, unfortunately...

[Darrell Green Fan]

9 hours ago, Bacon said:

 

Honest opinion: would it be a waste of money for me to get an antibody test right now? They're offering them here. I was in the LA school system until mid February. Very possible that I picked something up along the way.

 

On the other hand, are these tests even reliable? If they're only 90% accurate with a significant chance of throwing out a false positive, I might just wait. 

 

I am literally listening to a doctor answer this very question right now. He said no, too many false positives and he is not recommending it.

 

 

[Bacon]

13 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I am literally listening to a doctor answer this very question right now. He said no, too many false positives and he is not recommending it.

 

 

That's what I figured. We're in the midst of a culling process, trying to weed out the bad tests from the good ones and the clarity isn't there yet. i read this one article that claimed out of a dozen or so companies, only four managed to release an antibody test that was accurate 99% of the time, as advertised.

 

Which doesn't mean, of course, that we're learning nothing from the tests. We are. It's just not worth $125 yet.

[Springfield]

So... what the **** Virginia? Are we just not testing people so we can look better? This is messed up.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_hp-banner-low_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

 

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

[spjunkies]

I wish Jared would be kind enough to share that data with the rest of us "lockdown fans".

Edited April 29, 2020 by spjunkies

[TradeTheBeal!]

Re:  Virginia.

 

On one hand, it’s not comforting to see my state ranked 47th in testing per capita.

 

On the other hand, I live in Hanover County.  We have 100K people here, 109 cases and 9 deaths.  How many tests do we need out here?  Nobody is sick and the hospitals are empty.

 

So, how much of the state resources should we allocate to setup testing on demand for Hanover?  To accomplish what...to tell us what we already know?  That our rural location combined with the lockdown kept us mostly isolated?

 

Allocate the tests to where the outbreaks are happening...Tidewater and the beltway.

 

Also want to add that it appears that VA has administered roughly 30k tests in the last week.  So, we have begun to ramp it up quite a bit.

Edited April 29, 2020 by TryTheBeal!

[TheDoyler23]

8 hours ago, The Sisko said:

You must not have been married very long. You should know the first rule of a happy marriage. The answer to every question is “Yes Dear”.🙂

 

15 years this December! I pick my battles, but she has different ideas about stocking up. To her, 3 boxes of pasta in the cabinet means we have "almost no pasta."

 

Her family owned a catering company and I was a latchkey kid, so we have different comfort levels on these things!