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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

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COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining?

 

For the past few weeks, I have been obsessed with a mystery emerging in the national COVID-19 data.

 

Cases have soared to terrifying levels since June. Yesterday, the U.S. had 62,000 confirmed cases, an all-time high—and about five times more than the entire continent of Europe. Several U.S. states, including Arizona and Florida, currently have more confirmed cases per capita than any other country in the world.

 

But average daily deaths are down 75 percent from their April peak. Despite higher death counts on Tuesday and Wednesday, the weekly average has largely plateaued in the past two weeks.

 

The gap between spiking cases and falling-then-flatlining deaths has become the latest partisan flashpoint. President Donald Trump has brushed off the coronavirus surge by emphasizing the lower death rate, saying that “99 percent of [COVID-19 cases] are totally harmless.” On Tuesday, Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned Americans against “[taking] comfort in the lower rate of death” just hours before Trump tweeted triumphantly: “Death Rate from Coronavirus is down tenfold!”

 

1. Deaths lag cases—and that might explain almost everything.
You can’t have a serious discussion about case and death numbers without noting that people die of diseases after they get sick. It follows that there should be a lag between a surge in cases and a surge in deaths. More subtly, there can also be a lag between the date a person dies and the date the death certificate is issued, and another lag before that death is reported to the state and the federal government. As this chart from the COVID Tracking Project shows, the official reporting of a COVID-19 death can lag COVID-19 exposure by up to a month. This suggests that the surge in deaths is coming.

 

original.png

 

2. Expanded testing is finding more cases, milder cases, and earlier cases.
There is a bad way to talk about testing, and a nuanced way to talk about it.

 

The simplistic version, which we often hear from the president, is that cases are surging only because the number of tests is rising. That’s just wrong. Since the beginning of June, the share of COVID-19 tests that have come back positive has increased from 4.5 percent to 8 percent. Hospitalizations are skyrocketing across the South and West. Those are clear signs of an underlying outbreak.

 

Something subtler is happening. The huge increase in testing is an unalloyed good, but it might be tricking us with some confusing weeks of data.

 

In March and April, tests were scarce, and medical providers had to ration tests for the sickest patients. Now that testing has expanded into communities across the U.S., the results might be picking up milder, or even asymptomatic, cases of COVID-19.

 

The whole point of testing is to find cases, trace the patients’ close contacts, and isolate the sick. But our superior testing capacity makes it difficult to do apples-to-apples comparisons with the initial surge; it’s like trying to compare the height of two mountains when one of the peaks is obscured by clouds. The epidemiologist Ellie Murray has also cautioned that identifying new fatal cases of COVID-19 earlier in the victims’ disease process could mean a longer lag between detection and death. This phenomenon, known as “lead time bias,” might be telling us that a big death surge is coming.

 

3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger.
The most important COVID-19 story right now may be the age shift.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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purbeast

purbeast

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5 minutes ago, Skintime said:

I still, as I did before think that trump is trying to kill us just to stay in power. There in no way that he does not understand that his policies are killing Americans. 

I think he 1/100% may not really understand it because he is such a ****ing moron.  Same with anyone who supports him and follows him.

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PCS

PCS

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He also just doesn't care. His myopic,the world revolves around me attitude won't allow any empathy. It's all about his ego and what feeds it. Power and and how to keep it. Little desperation thrown in as well.  It's not that he trying,it's just that he doesn't give a ****. 

 

Also. On that article above,it's tough to compare anything to back in April since New York,(with New Jersey right behind them),skewed the average pretty nicely. 

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China

China

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America Is Refusing to Learn How to Fight the Coronavirus

 

Just before the holiday weekend, on the day that Donald Trump stood beneath Mount Rushmore and warned against “a merciless campaign to wipe out our history” and the day before his Washington, D.C., fireworks display generated air pollution 15 times the EPA standard and roughly equivalent to the choking megacities of India and China, the state of Arizona reached a terrible pandemic milestone. For the first time in its history, indeed for the first time in any state anywhere at any point in American medical history, the Arizona Department of Health Services activated its crisis standards for hospitals, giving them more flexibility (and less liability) to triage the overwhelming number of new COVID-19 patients and ration care, presumably by focusing on those who could use it most and declining to treat the grimmer cases.

 

This was once the terrifying nightmare scenario: American hospitals overwhelmed as they had been in Lombardy, Italy, at the outset of the pandemic. In the spring, it was said we had to do everything we possibly could to avoid this situation — to flatten the curve, even if we couldn’t suppress the disease, so at the very least our hospitals were able to treat all those who needed care. The country as a whole has achieved little else in its pandemic response, as painful as the three-month lockdown was, but it did achieve that. Had achieved that, rather. On Tuesday, Arizona recorded 3,653 new cases. Tuesdays are typically bad ones for coronavirus data, collating cases and deaths that don’t get counted over the weekend. But this Tuesday, 117 patients died, four times the state’s previous peak.

 

It’s not just in Arizona, where, over the last week, there have been more new cases per capita than anywhere else in the world — making it the epicenter of a global pandemic whose primary incubator, for several months now, has been the United States. In Texas, an ICU doctor at San Antonio Methodist told CNN, in what became a heartbreakingly viral interview, that he had received calls for ten patients to be transferred to his unit, but only had space for three.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

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Mooka

Mooka

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Hershey's straight out of the bottle is something I'd expect from a meth-head at your local Walmart. 

 

...

 

A little click-baitey tweet though as he's just drinking water from a chocolate syrup bottle. (he's also eating a cheese cracker maybe.... so really hope he's not really drinking Hersheys with that) 

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China

China

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The US is diving into a dark Covid hole -- and there's no plan to get out

 

There is no plan.

 

As the US plunges into an ever deeper coronavirus morass, setting record new infection rates and the death curve begins to rise again, there's no prospect of the nightmare ending for months.


Delusion dominates an administration that perversely claims the United States is the world leader in beating this modern day plague. There are only contradictions, obfuscations and confusion from the federal officials who ought to be charting a national course.


The massive integrated testing and tracing effort that could highlight and isolate infection epicenters doesn't exist. Attempts to reopen schools in a few weeks are already descending into farce amid conflicting messages from Washington.


Amid all of this, the coronavirus task force does not hold daily briefings, and when it does, they are an exercise in dodging difficult questions and self-congratulation.


Months into the worst domestic crisis since World War II, there is no sense that a fractured country is pulling together to confront a common enemy. People are still arguing about wearing masks -- a tiny infringement of personal freedoms that represents one of the few hopes of easing the contagion. The one federal official who does seem to have answers, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has been banished to the podcast circuit by President Donald Trump, who was on Fox News Thursday night boasting about acing a cognitive test as the US hit another daily record of infections -- over 60,000 -- on a day on which more than 900 new deaths were reported.


It's unimaginable that any other modern President would have handled things this way. Most would have thrown every federal government dollar, resource and expert at it. But Trump appears to believe his reelection relies on creating an alternative reality in which tens of thousands of Americans -- now mostly in states where he is overwhelmingly popular -- are not being infected rather than actually beating back the pandemic.

 

He keeps insisting falsely that the only reason the US has more cases is because it is doing more testing -- raising questions as to whether he truly understands the situation or is being deliberately obtuse. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

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EmirOfShmo

EmirOfShmo

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Apologies if this was already posted...

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he hasn't briefed Trump in at least two months, despite pandemic resurgence

 

WASHINGTON – Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, said Friday he has not briefed President Donald Trump in at least two months and not seen him in person at the White House since June 2, despite a coronavirus resurgence that has strained hospitals and led several states to pause reopenings.

Fauci told the Financial Times he was "sure" his messages were sent to the president even though the two have not been in close contact in the past several weeks.

In a Thursday interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity, Trump said Fauci had "made a lot of mistakes" but called him a "nice man." Trump also said "most cases" of coronavirus would "automatically cure. They automatically get better."

Also in the FT interview, Fauci said Trump was incorrect in claiming 99% of coronavirus cases were "harmless" and may have conflated some statistics.

...

Fauci responded to reports he had not appeared as often on television as he had earlier in the pandemic, saying his reputation for "speaking the truth at all times and not sugar-coating things" could be "one of the reasons why I haven’t been on television very much lately."

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dr-anthony-fauci-says-hasnt-145943235.html

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