2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

on another note, according to Pauline (who knows if its true but sadly what he hears about Trent parallels what Keim has been hearing too as I mentioned earlier today) 

 

If that's true, we should hold onto him until after the draft and look to deal him for a better 2021 offer.  There is a lot more return value in that then settling for a crap low-ball offer in this draft.

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

I don't always agree with Brugler.  but IMO he has the best draft guide by a mile.  Almost no fluff.  Deep detail on a zillion players.  I've been going through it today. 

5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If that's true, we should hold onto him until after the draft and look to deal him for a better 2021 offer.  There is a lot more return value in that then settling for a crap low-ball offer in this draft.

 

The height of his value was last year during the season.  You had contending teams and they had really no other options.  Depending on the reporter they either had a first round and change offer or 2nd round and change offers.    Bruce Allen supposedly sold the FO behind the scenes that Trent's value would be better this off season versus during the season last year.  What a moron.

 

Trent's value was diminished in 2020 because teams have other options and aren't as desperate.  Now we had FA and a really good draft for tackle.  We also got Trent a year older, a full season out of football and with just one year left on his contract as opposed to two years. 

 

I agree and I've said the same which is your best shot to jack up his trade value is bring him back and show the NFL that the dude can still play and trade him during the season to a desperate contender. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Makes me wonder if a TE rather than picks is the main target in Silverback talks because this TE class sucks and the best of them will likely be gone by our third rounder.

 

Keim nailed FA so I trust his take to a degree.  Keim more or less laid out that the Redskins are getting ham sandwich type offers and that there is really only one team (oddly he doesn't seem to know what the team is) right now that has more than a cursory interest in Trent.  But apparently even that team hasn't offered much. 

[mistertim]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree and I've said the same which is your best shot to jack up his trade value is bring him back and show the NFL that the dude can still play and trade him during the season to a desperate contender. 

 

I thought Trent had been saying that he won't play. If that's the case then I doubt we'll get much above a 4th rounder for him since it's been such a long time since he played. Unless some team loses their starting LT once (if) minicamps and training camps roll around and panics. Then we might be able to get as high as a 2nd for him. 

 

I wonder if he sits out the whole year again what kind of FA contract he would get. I doubt many teams would be willing to pony up a big multi-year contract for a 32 year old Tackle with an injury history and who hasn't played a down in over 2 years. He'll probably get plenty of 1 year "prove it" offers. Maybe he can be convinced to play this season if he knows that we'll let him become a UFA and he'd improve the money he'll get if he shows he can still play.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I thought Trent had been saying that he won't play. If that's the case then I doubt we'll get much above a 4th rounder for him since it's been such a long time since he played. Unless some team loses their starting LT once (if) minicamps and training camps roll around and panics. Then we might be able to get as high as a 2nd for him. 

 

I wonder if he sits out the whole year again what kind of FA contract he would get. I doubt many teams would be willing to pony up a big multi-year contract for a 32 year old Tackle with an injury history and who hasn't played a down in over 2 years. He'll probably get plenty of 1 year "prove it" offers. Maybe he can be convinced to play this season if he knows that we'll let him become a UFA and he'd improve the money he'll get if he shows he can still play.

 

Trent didn't say he won't play.  His agent more or less said Trent wants out.  But there hasn't been a threat at least not yet that he wouldn't play.  The problem this time if he doesn't play is that the new CBA jacks up the fines and also the player loses their eligibility the season they don't play as for the season counted.  So Trent's contact would just roll over with the Redskins for the year he misses.

 

The impression I get (from Donaldson who seems plugged in) is if they have to they will take a ham sandwich for Trent in the end if they must -- but they are hoping they can get more for Trent.    She didn't say that part specifically but said that Trent won't becoming back next season and she meant that the team won't bring him back.  I guess will see. 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Trent didn't say he won't play.  His agent more or less said Trent wants out.  But there hasn't been a threat at least not yet that he wouldn't play.  The problem this time if he doesn't play is that the new CBA jacks up the fines and also the player loses their eligibility the season they don't play as for the season counted.  So Trent's contact would just roll over with the Redskins for the year he misses.

 

The impression I get (from Donaldson who seems plugged in) is if they have to they will take a ham sandwich for Trent in the end -- they will.  

 

Thanks, I didn't know those facts about the new CBA. So if he didn't play he wouldn't be a UFA in 2021? That would be pretty bad for him. If he basically has to play this year or face even stiffer penalties as well as having this year of his contract roll over why not just have him play this year then let him go next year? Part of me would rather do that than get some stupid 5th rounder for him now. 

 

Though I suppose you could have both. Have him play but let it be known that he's there for trade if a team loses their starting LT during the season. Then you could probably move him for closer to a 2nd, especially if he shows that he can still play at a high level.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Thanks, I didn't know those facts about the new CBA. So if he didn't play he wouldn't be a UFA in 2021? That would be pretty bad for him. If he basically has to play this year or face even stiffer penalties as well as having this year of his contract roll over why not just have him play this year then let him go next year? Part of me would rather do that than get some stupid 5th rounder for him now. 

 

 

Yep, the holdout would basically accomplish the opposite of a quick escape for him.  It would instead make him Redskins property for an extra year.  And he'd get fined up the nose in the process, too. 

[HTTRDynasty]

59 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep, the holdout would basically accomplish the opposite of a quick escape for him.  It would instead make him Redskins property for an extra year.  And he'd get fined up the nose in the process, too. 

 

That was what everyone originally thought, including Keim, but he recently shut that down once the full CBA language came out.

 

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, a player in his third season or less won't get credit for an accrued year if he fails to report on time to training camp or leaves the team for more than five days without permission. But that rule doesn't apply to Williams, who is a 10-year veteran. In his case he would be only subject to a $50,000 fine for every day he misses.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28946330/trent-williams-agent-says-redskins-trade-release-client

[Fresh8686]

 

 

[volsmet]

Trading for 2020 draft picks, in 2020, is a buy high move. 
 

 

Keep calm & hold your ass *ets.

 

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

As many have pointed out using the Kerrigan trade, or any number of other trades, trading down for picks in the same year is often a chumps move. You have to nail the picks and your scouts have to be great and beat the odds. Trading for a higher pick in the following year is the opposite. A 2nd rounder for a 1st? That just takes a little patience. 

[volsmet]

21 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

As many have pointed out using the Kerrigan trade, or any number of other trades, trading down for picks in the same year is often a chumps move. You have to nail the picks and your scouts have to be great and beat the odds. Trading for a higher pick in the following year is the opposite. A 2nd rounder for a 1st? That just takes a little patience. 

It’s so simple, and available, yet rarely exploited. Frustrating. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

It’s so simple, and available, yet rarely exploited. Frustrating. 

 

Endemic low job security in the NFL leads to people focusing on trying to make it through the upcoming season.  Results in a lot of short term thinking.

 

I think teams also start to zero in on concrete plans as the draft gets near, and it makes them less flexible.  Human nature is to fall in love with a handful of prospects and start scheming up ways to target them in or before their expected ranges.  The most common defense that teams offer after committing reaches is, "we didn't think he'd be there at our next pick."  That's getting married to a prospect, and I think it happens to virtually everyone who does this.  Even us over here in the peanut gallery, and I can't imagine it doesn't happen to the professional front office people who study these guys so intensively and get to know them personally through the process.

 

Well, when you get married to a prospect, and you've made a very concrete plan to take him with your pick in the third round if he's there, then you stop thinking about trading that pick for a future increase in value.

[volsmet]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Endemic low job security in the NFL leads to people focusing on trying to make it through the upcoming season.  Results in a lot of short term thinking.

 

I think teams also start to zero in on concrete plans as the draft gets near, and it makes them less flexible.  Human nature is to fall in love with a handful of prospects and start scheming up ways to target them in or before their expected ranges.  The most common defense that teams offer after committing reaches is, "we didn't think he'd be there at our next pick."  That's getting married to a prospect, and I think it happens to virtually everyone who does this.  Even us over here in the peanut gallery, and I can't imagine it doesn't happen to the professional front office people who study these guys so intensively and get to know them personally through the process.

 

Well, when you get married to a prospect, and you've made a very concrete plan to take him with your pick in the third round if he's there, then you stop thinking about trading that pick for a future increase in value.

Absolutely - I’ve written a bit about these things, well said my man. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

As many have pointed out using the Kerrigan trade, or any number of other trades, trading down for picks in the same year is often a chumps move. You have to nail the picks and your scouts have to be great and beat the odds. Trading for a higher pick in the following year is the opposite. A 2nd rounder for a 1st? That just takes a little patience. 

 

I think it is totally dependent on the situation and the accuracy of your draft board.  If your board is crap, trading down will lose you value.  That was one of our biggest problems in the Shanahan and Allen era--they were horrible with the draft and our boards were clearly out of whack.  But let's say you've got a good scouting department and a good board, then trading down can be a great way to add value.

 

But again, it hinges on you having an accurate feel for the market value of the prospects, and the inefficiencies of that market, and that is clearly very difficult to achieve.

 

I've been doing a lot of TDN mock drafts, and I think I have a pretty good feel for the market inefficiencies of their board: it's a good board on the whole, but they've got certain guys way too low which leads to really easy high value choices for me at our picks in the fourth and fifth rounds.  If anything, there is always a combination of 6 or 7 guys at those three picks that I'm happy with no matter which way they come out.  But that pick at 66 is pretty dicey at least half the time.  Sometimes a major fluke happens and a first rounder falls to the pick and it's easy: the "Tee Higgins Scenario."  Sometimes it's a mid second rounder at a really useful position.  But a lot of the time it's a choice between players who I think are overrated and don't really love.  In those situations, I would rather trade down and gain extra picks in that 90-150 where there are always like 6-7 players I like, such that I can come away with five of them instead of just three.

 

This is going to be a really rough offseason for rookies though.  I think it will have a similar impact that the lockout season had on the NBA's rookie class in 2011.  That year the Wizards had a big rookie class and they were all stunted for the year and ended up being major busts.  This feels like an offseason where the smart teams will focus on quality in their rookie classes instead of quantity, because a lot of these guys are going to fall through the cracks.  Gotta get the guys who are ready to be pros, who are self starters, and who already know how to play.  That's why I'm all-in on Chase Young now, and why I am desperately hoping we draft high polish players like Tyler Johnson and Harrison Bryant.  I think it's a horrible offseason to swing big on projects who need a ton of work.

[volsmet]

[KDawg]

At this point, trading Trent Williams for a low end asset in this years Draft is probably a mistake. Unless the second round offer is had, or a quality tight end + a draft choice, holding him until after the draft is wise.

 

There is a negative to that, though. We aren’t moving on LT prospects at the moment. Whether that’s because they have a guy somewhere in the draft that they like or if it’s because they don’t want to lose leverage with Williams can be debated. But if there’s no plan to acquire additional early round assets, drafting 71’s replacement may not happen (unless a Niang type falls somehow). 
 

We don’t have any other horses in the barn.

[Koolblue13]

I guess we'll have a pretty good LT this year. Problem is, we have a lot of young guys buying into a new system and tough old school coaches not looking to go easy on anyone. That doesn't exactly breed comfort for an older, injury prone malcontent. Might just be better to get the ham sandwich. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I don’t think you trade Trent until the draft. That’s when you’ve got the most leverage. If the Jets know we’d take 3+4 for Trent why not wait to see how the draft unfolds? If your OT is gone and you love Jeudy then you take Jeudy and trade for Trent. But if Wirfs falls and he’s your OT1 there’s no reason if you’re the Jets to “overpay” for Trent. Same with Browns. If Simmons falls to 10 that’s gotta be their pick. Then they can trade for Trent to plug into LT

[DWinzit]

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Now imagine that haul with something crazy at 66 like Tee Higgins instead of Niang.

 

4 hours ago, volsmet said:

These results answer a question that I asked much earlier in this thread and ease my thoughts in the 4th round. While I found Biadasz's season frustrating he is a talented C with a wealth of experience. While limited in some ways to me he is an upgrade over Roullier - who has played admirally and would be an great backup. I feel he is not worthy of a 3rd, he is a steal in the 4th.

 

Regarding the Higgins vs. Niang controversy, I guess I have Higgins ranked lower than most. I have Niang ranked about equal and this year, I value the OT/G higher. I feel like I would have more options at good WR later but not at T.

 

If there is an opportunity to drop a little and pick up more selections at 66, I lean towards a trade down unless the steal of the draft is sitting there. 

 

I would love to see the NFL comprimise and at least add on round to the draft due this years odd situation.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

 

These results answer a question that I asked much earlier in this thread and ease my thoughts in the 4th round. While I found Biadasz's season frustrating he is a talented C with a wealth of experience. While limited in some ways to me he is an upgrade over Roullier - who has played admirally and would be an great backup. I feel he is not worthy of a 3rd, he is a steal in the 4th.

 

Regarding the Higgins vs. Niang controversy, I guess I have Higgins ranked lower than most. I have Niang ranked about equal and this year, I value the OT/G higher. I feel like I would have more options at good WR later but not at T.

 

If there is an opportunity to drop a little and pick up more selections at 66, I lean towards a trade down unless the steal of the draft is sitting there. 

 

I would love to see the NFL comprimise and at least add on round to the draft due this years odd situation.

I agree that I’d take Niang over Higgins. I have Higgins higher, but roughly the same tier as Niang and Niang is in a much more vital position of need. Same tier means taking the prospect that helps your team the most. Especially after round 2. I’m with you here. 
 

Though I see the argument for Higgins and respect anyone with that thought (like you). Higgins that far down in the draft is absurd value. 
 

But if he falls that far I’d feel like we’re missing something. Like Guice. Dude fell into our laps. We knew we got a total stud. But so far he’s been injury plagued. That could break, but I think Love may be the man moving forward.

[Going Commando]

Guys Higgins is a first rounder.  He's a top 20 talent in the class.  He was a dominant player who rewrote Clemson's record books and he doesn't even have his man strength yet.  When he finishes filling out, he's going to be a Mike Evans clone.  Him falling to the third round is sheer draft season lunacy, and if it happens, it will be a repeat of the DK Metcalf situation from last year.

 

I like Niang too, but Higgins is a way better player and talent than him.  The reason I picked Niang at 66 in that mock is because Higgins was long gone, it wasn't a choice of Higgins vs Niang.  It was like Niang vs Peart and Tega Wanahogo and Ashtyn Davis.

[KDawg]

Great. Let’s discuss what to do if we pass on Young at 2 and he’s there in the third, too!

 

Not even a realistic discussion. If it happens, let’s talk. Otherwise it’s not even close.

 

Obviously, we can have these discussions as much as anyone wants. Just know it’s a never ending loop

[Anselmheifer]

50 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Guys Higgins is a first rounder.  He's a top 20 talent in the class.  He was a dominant player who rewrote Clemson's record books and he doesn't even have his man strength yet.  When he finishes filling out, he's going to be a Mike Evans clone.  Him falling to the third round is sheer draft season lunacy, and if it happens, it will be a repeat of the DK Metcalf situation from last year.

 

 

I like Higgins, but I don't think he's a Mike Evans clone. He's an inch shorter and 15 pounds lighter, with shorter arms. I'd also say probably much less explosive based on a 31 inch vert vs 37". Evans to my eye looks like he was much more productive in college, obviously played in the SEC, and didn't play on the caliber of teams that Higgins played on. He didn't have a great QB throwing him the ball and every coverage was going to roll to him. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mike-evans?id=2543468

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mike-evans-4.html

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tee-higgins?id=32194849-4738-7791-9f89-d556c4b59b9a

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tee-higgins-1.html

 

I wouldn't mind Higgins in the late 1st and he'd be a steal in the top of the 3rd, but Evans should be a top 5-8 pick in any draft. 

[Going Commando]

22 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I like Higgins, but I don't think he's a Mike Evans clone. He's an inch shorter and 15 pounds lighter, with shorter arms. I'd also say probably much less explosive based on a 31 inch vert vs 37". Evans to my eye looks like he was much more productive in college, obviously played in the SEC, and didn't play on the caliber of teams that Higgins played on. He didn't have a great QB throwing him the ball and every coverage was going to roll to him.  

 

Hold on now, those 2012 and 2013 A&M teams were loaded.  Manziel won the Heisman and that OL had four first round picks on it and Swope was a good college receiver.  Clemson has Etienne and Lawrence and Ross, but they don't necessarily have a huge depth of talent on offense behind their four big stars from the last two seasons.  And while Lawrence is clearly a far better NFL prospect than Manziel for a variety of reasons, Manziel was a better college QB his sophomore year than Lawrence was in 2019.  He was a bonafide superstar that year, and defenses schemed to deal with him first and foremost.  The big difference in talent between Clemson and those A&M teams is on defense, not offense.

 

The physical measurements are very close.  The difference in arm length is an inch, it's a superlative trait for Higgins too.  I think it's clear from Higgins's lanky frame that he has room to easily add that 15 pounds without sacrificing quickness, and he's already very strong.  His 4.25 short shuttle and 4.54 40 are pretty much identical to Evans's numbers.  The only big difference in the testing is the vertical, which I think is weird.  Higgins has the same basketball background and his "above the rim" ability is the most dramatic strength in his skill set.  Higgins was a 4 star and top 100 recruit in basketball who once did this in a game:

 

 

He is a very explosive vertical athlete, I'm not sure why his jump from his Pro-Day was so pedestrian.  Could have been a bad jump, or it could have been that he didn't train very well for it.

 

Bottom line, I think Higgins's playing style is a very similar match to Evans's.  He has the same dominant jump ball and contested catch ability.  The same freakish body control.  The same shocking short area quickness and shifty movement skills for his size.  And I think we got to see hints of a similar overwhelming power to Higgins's game like when he ran over Fulton in the CFP championship game.  Evans is Higgins's ceiling IMO.

 

Higgins is a bonafide blue chipper.  I blame @volsmet for turning you all against him for going to play football out of state.