2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@UK SKINS FAN 74 my hope ... no my dream ... is that the OT run ends with the Browns, the Jets take one of the WRs, and call us to offer both 3rds for Trent.

 

If we went into the draft with #2 (Chase) ... 3/3/3/4/4/5 I would be soooo happy. 3.2, 3.4 and 3.15 would be very valuable picks in this draft. To move up, down, or stand pat.

 

So much pessimism from beat reporters about what teams are willing to offer for Trent of late -- if you listen to Keim it would be a pleasant surprise to get an offer of just one third rounder let alone two of them.   Hopefully Keim and others are wrong or these teams stop from being cheap as to what they are willing to give. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I ran a simulation based on the TW trade to the Jets using Matt Miller's big board. I then traded 3.2 for 3.12 and 4.11. Results are juicy. But we need those picks for Trent haha.

 

1.2: Chase Young, Edge Ohio State

3.4: Adam Trautman, TE Dayton

3.12: Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina

3.15: Saahdiq Charles, OT LSU

4.2: Amik Robertson, CB Louisiana Tech

4.11: Akeem Gaither-Davis, LB Appalachian State

4.36: Antonio Gibson, WR Memphis

5.16: Reggie Robinson, S Tulane

7.2: Calvin Throckmorton, OT Oregon

7.15: Parnell Motley, CB Oklahoma

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Jesus Christ. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Herbert's last 3 games were 14/20 138 yards 0 TD 1 ITN, 14/26 193 yards 1TD 0 INT, 18/30 174 yards, 1TD 0 INT. Herbert over Tua?

The draft is insanity. Herbert isn't a gamer. Never mind Herbert over Tua. Herbert over Simmons is insanity. I'd take Simmons, Jeudy, Andrew Thomas, and Wirfs over Herbert without blinking. Jeudy and Eason or any replacement level QB are more valuable than Herbert.

 

 

Don't know how much of it is smoke versus real but most of the Dolphins reporters are making a variation of these points:

 

A.  Man crush of the FO is no longer Tua but its Burrow

B.  They didn't accumulate all those picks to throw them away on a trade up, they'd prefer to use them unless they love a QB and that would be Burrow

C.  They still like Tua but not as much because of injury concerns and their inability to delve harder into his current situation because of all the Coronavirus stuff

D.  They like Herbert and also Jordan Love, they can likely stay pat and land either one

 

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I ran a simulation based on the TW trade to the Jets using Matt Miller's big board. I then traded 3.2 for 3.12 and 4.11. Results are juicy. But we need those picks for Trent haha.

 

 

That haul would be crazy good

[Est.1974]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've been listening to death to podcast after podcast, and they are all practically scream to me they are sticking to #2.  

 

Keim who pretty much nailed what they'd do in advance as to FA has been pretty hardcore that he'd heavily bet they are sticking to #2 and the only way they'd trade down is for a major haul but they don't expect a major haul offer coming.  And then I'd add the Dolphin reporters have been practically screaming that what they are hearing is the Dolphins have some pause about Tua and won't trade the farm to land him but might trade the farm for Burrow. 

 

I'd go as far at the moment that i'd be stunned if they trade down. Not just surprised but stunned at last based on the current smoke around the situation.  Now if that smoke changed in the next 2 weeks I'd feel differently. 

I spent a bit of time watching over Chase Young footage again yesterday, and to be honest it is almost impossible to look past him at #2.  I get that.

 

I think my frustration is that we have come up just a bit short in FA, that said that is another story.

 

My original line was Young, LB, TE, WR

 

I like Brooks, Hopkins, Hill (maybe later round now) can see Turner wanting Shenault earlier.

 

We need another bloody pick though. Trent for a 3 and 5 is my hope right now.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

That haul would be crazy good

 

At this stage it feels unrealistic. But it's using one of my favorite draft guy's big board. And teams never view certain players like the internet scouts. And often players are picked that make you go "What?! Round 3? He was someone going in Round 5 in all these mocks!" ... and then guys that make you go ... "OMG how are we passing on him? everyone had him in the late 1st or early 2nd and its round 3!"

 

It'll never turn out the way I project or fantasize about through these mocks. But with time to kill, and 2 weeks to go before the draft, this is as close to reality as I think I can get to building expectations for what we can do in the draft. Of course, it usually sets me up for disappointment ... although I was thrilled with how our draft turned out last year.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I spent a bit of time watching over Chase Young footage again yesterday, and to be honest it is almost impossible to look past him at #2.  I get that.

 

I think my frustration is that we have come up just a bit short in FA, that said that is another story.

 

My original line was Young, LB, TE, WR

 

I like Brooks, Hopkins, Hill (maybe later round now) can see Turner wanting Shenault earlier.

 

We need another bloody pick though. Trent for a 3 and 5 is my hope right now.

 

Yeah for me reading the tea leaves Rivera said openly he has a price to trade down from the 2nd pick but he doesn't see anyone meeting that price.  That rhetoric seems to be parroted by what the beat guys have been saying and they likewise say they are likely staying at 2 because a big haul offer is unlikely coming.   That also plays into what the Dolphin reporters say, too.   You never know but there is so much smoke to me that they are staying at #2.

 

I am cool with staying pat at #2 and taking Chase.  If I recall I said on this very thread I believe as far back as October that if I can take Chase I am not trading down.  Now if I got some crazy offer, I would.  But it makes little sense to me that the Dolphins would trade an insane haul for Tua considering the uncertainty around him. 

 

There are a ton of guys I like in the 3rd-5th round.  Depending on who lands there, my inclination would be to trade down. 

 

[Panninho]

I still find it ridiculous how Jeudy is sliding in some mock drafts to WR#3. I know he had some bad drops last season but his route running is off the charts. I just pray he doesn't end up in the NFC East. Look at this route for example, playing against Diggs, another fringe first rounder.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

At this stage it feels unrealistic. But it's using one of my favorite draft guy's big board. And teams never view certain players like the internet scouts. And often players are picked that make you go "What?! Round 3? He was someone going in Round 5 in all these mocks!" ... and then guys that make you go ... "OMG how are we passing on him? everyone had him in the late 1st or early 2nd and its round 3!"

 

It'll never turn out the way I project or fantasize about through these mocks. But with time to kill, and 2 weeks to go before the draft, this is as close to reality as I think I can get to building expectations for what we can do in the draft. Of course, it usually sets me up for disappointment ... although I was thrilled with how our draft turned out last year.

 

I think that point is what's going to make the early 3rd really interesting.  I'd put money that we will be staring at a player or two that we currently think isn't going to be there.  At that point, it will be an interesting dilemma.  In theory I am a trade down guy. 

 

But thinking about some of the trade downs.  Trading down to get Kerrigan and Jarvis Jenkins versus just JJ Watt.  Trading down to get Trent Murphy and change versus Demarcus Lawrence.  Trading down to get Crowder and change versus Lockett.   The trade down where we still got Guice was good but the added pick ended up Geron Christian.  So trading down hasn't always = good things.  So if there is some shocker faller lets say for example Tee Higgins, maybe we should just take them versus trading down. 

 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think that point is what's going to make the early 3rd really interesting.  I'd put money that we will be staring at a player or two that we currently think isn't going to be there.  At that point, it will be an interesting dilemma.  In theory I am a trade down guy. 

 

But thinking about some of the trade downs.  Trading down to get Kerrigan and Jarvis Jenkins versus just JJ Watt.  Trading down to get Trent Murphy and change versus Demarcus Lawrence.  Trading down to get Crowder and change versus Lockett.   The trade down where we still got Guice was good but the added pick ended up Geron Christian.  So trading down hasn't always = good things.  So if there is some shocker faller lets say for example Tee Higgins, maybe we should just take them versus trading down. 

 

Trading down is the most overhyped thing ever. It almost never works out for the team that trades down.

[Skin'emAlive]

Hypothetically speaking, if both Lloyd Cushenberry and Michael Pittman somehow both fell to #66, who would you draft. It’s a toss-up for me. 

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Hypothetically speaking, if both Lloyd Cushenberry and Michael Pittman somehow both fell to #66, who would you draft. It’s a toss-up for me. 

Maybe neither. Depends who else is there.

 

But hypothetically, choosing between those two? Probably Cushenberry. 
 

I think 66 is prime position for a short trade back unless someone high on the board slides into our laps.

[Skin'emAlive]

I see Cushenberry as the 2nd best C in the draft, and he would certainly fill a hole on the OL we’ve had for some time. Could get lucky and have KJ Hill fall to us in the 4th in this scenario. 
 

That being said, Ron has clearly taken interest in 6’4”+ wrs, and I think Pittman is the best one in the draft. 
 

I like the idea of pairing Hill, Mclaurin, Sims, and Harmon together, but it does appear the FO is strongly considering a bigger X wr prospect. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

If Tee Higgins falls to 66 you take him. I don’t really care who else is on the Board at that point. Need + high end talent 

[skinny21]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If Tee Higgins falls to 66 you take him. I don’t really care who else is on the Board at that point. Need + high end talent 

For me, it would depend on if any of the top OTs or corners slide.  To a lesser extent, IOL and linebacker as well.  Good chance that Higgins is the BPA at that point though, and he fits Rivera, and is a need position... so you’re probably right.  

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If Tee Higgins falls to 66 you take him. I don’t really care who else is on the Board at that point. Need + high end talent 

I don’t think you can ever say that in the draft unless you’re one of the first few picks. You never know who may be available and speaking in absolutes is rarely a great plan.

 

I think I agree that it’s likely that if Higgins falls he’s the BPA. But you never... ever... know.

[Skin'emAlive]

Tee Higgins is not falling past Miami in the second. 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

The draft is insanity. Herbert isn't a gamer. Never mind Herbert over Tua. Herbert over Simmons is insanity. I'd take Simmons, Jeudy, Andrew Thomas, and Wirfs over Herbert without blinking. Jeudy and Eason or any replacement level QB are more valuable than Herbert.

 

Herbert is not the guy people think he is.  Zierlein compared him to Carson Wentz, and people think he's that dude, but he's more like Nick Foles.  Herbert has no swagger.  You think you're getting this physically superior prospect who you can mold into a John Elway and that's just not in him.  He's a tentative, game-managing type who doesn't see the field that well and has no playmaking instinct in him despite his running and throwing ability.  He's a frustrating player to watch, and Oregon had a frustrating season.  Overwhelmingly dominant offensive line performance--perhaps the greatest collective OL season in years.  Great defense and run game.  QB who was supposed a blue chip senior.  They absolutely should have been in the CFP over Oklahoma and should have given LSU a run for their money, but Herbert is an underachiever.  They would have been undefeated heading into the CFP if they'd had a true playmaker like Dwayne Haskins at the position.

 

I think your comparison to Josh Allen is generous.  Allen, for all his flaws, is a gamer who will play backyard football.  Herbert doesn't have that kind of confidence and aggression.

 

The team who takes Herbert over Tua is just stupid.  I don't care about Tua's crazy family or his injury history, the difference in the level of upside between the two of them is huge.  But nothing surprises me in the decisions NFL teams make about quarterbacks.  They are astonishingly bad at evaluating, projecting, handling, and developing the position, and several teams make stupid QB mistakes every single offseason.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Makes me wonder if a TE rather than picks is the main target in Silverback talks because this TE class sucks and the best of them will likely be gone by our third rounder.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Jesus Christ. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Herbert's last 3 games were 14/20 138 yards 0 TD 1 ITN, 14/26 193 yards 1TD 0 INT, 18/30 174 yards, 1TD 0 INT. Herbert over Tua?

The draft is insanity. Herbert isn't a gamer. Never mind Herbert over Tua. Herbert over Simmons is insanity. I'd take Simmons, Jeudy, Andrew Thomas, and Wirfs over Herbert without blinking. Jeudy and Eason or any replacement level QB are more valuable than Herbert.

 

 

And Tua's stats in Alabama's final three games was 0/0 0 yards 0 TDs 0 INTs. Because he was injured and had to have surgery....his 4th injury related surgery since he's been in college. Some people are a bit dismissive of Tua's injury history, but as an NFL GM or HC you just can't afford to do that. Most QBs (hell, most players) who are injury prone in college continue to be injury prone in the NFL. I'm not against Tua; I loved watching him play, he's super talented, and he seems like a top notch person. But he's injury prone, so you pretty much have to assume that he's going to at least miss some time in the NFL. What use is all of his talent if he can't stay on the field?

 

If Tua wasn't injury prone he'd easily be above Herbert. But he is. Herbert isn't a bad prospect. I'm not super duper high on him but he is a very good prospect who also showed up well at the combine. A team that needs a QB and is choosing between a prospect who's crazy talented but injury prone and a prospect who's not quite as talented but still very good and not injury prone may very well choose to go the safer route. 

 

2 hours ago, Panninho said:

I still find it ridiculous how Jeudy is sliding in some mock drafts to WR#3. I know he had some bad drops last season but his route running is off the charts. I just pray he doesn't end up in the NFC East. Look at this route for example, playing against Diggs, another fringe first rounder.

 

 

I think it's a combination of the upside of other guys and Jeudy's relatively mediocre showing at the combine. Lots of people were predicting he was a 4.3 guy but he ran a 4.45. Not bad, but not game breaker speed. He's an excellent route runner, but his upside may be a bit limited and he had a somewhat bad case of the dropsies. That's another thing that doesn't tend to change from college to the NFL. Another potential issue is that he played mostly in the slot...generally teams picking a WR top 5 or top 10 are looking for that #1 kind of guy who can play outside as a split end. That doesn't mean Jeudy can't do it...just means he hasn't really gotten to show whether or not he can.

 

A guy like Lamb has super reliable hands, is great with 50/50 balls, and is an absolute nightmare after the catch. He's not as good a route runner as Jeudy but most college prospects aren't. I've watched as many cutups of Lamb as I could find and he is a good route runner. Just not currently at Jeudy's level. He's also shown that he can play outside successfully.

 

A guy like Ruggs has that ludicrous speed that can absolutely take the top off of a defense ala Tyreek Hill. He also has really reliable hands and wins some really tough 50/50 balls as well. He runs decent routes and he'll need to improve that at the next level. But even in the NFL his speed can mask that deficiency. 

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I really like Trautman, but you also have to take into account that he was playing against guys who will never even sniff an NFL roster and who were vastly inferior to him athletically and skill-wise. He's super talented but he did also play against poor competition. 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So if there is some shocker faller lets say for example Tee Higgins, maybe we should just take them versus trading down. 

 

Absolutely.  If Higgins is there, you take him.  He's a top 20 player in the class, you don't overthink it and there is zero chance anybody else is even close to him from a value standpoint.

 

Coming away with Chase Young and Tee Higgins is an incredible haul for the first two days of the draft.  Can you imagine having a jump ball winner like that as an outlet for Haskins's arm?  Even if we didn't add a single other weapon via the draft, I would feel good about what we've got at the skill positions on offense moving forward.

[volsmet]

Herbert stinks. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Going Commando]

 

Now imagine that haul with something crazy at 66 like Tee Higgins instead of Niang.

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Absolutely.  If Higgins is there, you take him.  He's a top 20 player in the class, you don't overthink it and there is zero chance anybody else is even close to him from a value standpoint.

 

Coming away with Chase Young and Tee Higgins is an incredible haul for the first two days of the draft.  Can you imagine having a jump ball winner like that as an outlet for Haskins's arm?  Even if we didn't add a single other weapon via the draft, I would feel good about what we've got at the skill positions on offense moving forward.

 

I am hoping that some of the players that some draftniks are higher on than I am like Shenault, Aiyuk go early and push someone like Higgins down.   Heck I was early on a big Mims guy even before the Senior Bowl but that's when I thought he'd be among that 2nd tier groups of receivers.    I've seen Mims higher than Higgins in some mocks and I don't get it.  I like Mims and think he's a good player but he's not in Higgins' class IMO. 

 

 

on another note, according to Pauline (who knows if its true but sadly what he hears about Trent parallels what Keim has been hearing too as I mentioned earlier today)

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2020-nfl-draft-rumors-dolphins-redskins-raiders-pauline/

Have you heard anything about Washington Redskins OT Trent Williams and the New York Jets?
There’s been little word on where Trent Williams ends up as of this posting. I spoke with someone close to the situation last night (Monday) who told me the belief is the Redskins have offers on the table for Williams, but those offers are primarily last day picks. The hopes are they could move him closer to the draft, if not during the draft itself, for a second day selection.

 

Have you heard anything to corroborate the CBS report that the Redskins could be more likely to trade down from #2 overall than to keep the pick/spot?
I heard the opposite as of last night. I am told the owner and coach are still on the same page in selecting Chase Young with the second overall pick.

 

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Now imagine that haul with something crazy at 66 like Tee Higgins instead of Niang.

 

I love Higgins but I also love Niang so I'd have no issue with that draft.   That's a great draft.