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2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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6 hours ago, KDawg said:

Couldn't agree more on Fromm. He looked bad. He may go undrafted.


nah... he’ll salvage it somewhat with a good pro day and end up being a late third or fourth rounder.

 

He’ll still suck in the nfl, but he’ll be a drafted suck

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1 hour ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I don't think a WR we select in the 3rd will be that much better than Harmon. We have more pressing needs like TE, OT, OLB/MLB, S, and CB. 


WR is a priority, imo, but as you noted, we need everything. 
 

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1 hour ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I don't think a WR we select in the 3rd will be that much better than Harmon. We have more pressing needs like TE, OT, OLB/MLB, S, and CB. 

 

The only two positions where I wouldn't go BPA this year:

 

1 - I wouldn't draft a QB

2 - I wouldn't draft a DT before day 3.

 

We should be going BPA for everything else IMO.

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Just now, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The only two positions where I wouldn't go BPA this year:

 

1 - I wouldn't draft a QB

2 - I wouldn't draft a DT before day 3.

 

We should be going BPA for everything else IMO.

Kyle Smith said in the combine interview that the team looks at need at the position. So it really depends on what they think of who we have. We had 3 rookie WRs last year and if Dwayne gets a pass so should Harmon and Sims imo. Harmon got half a season under his belt and started putting up good rookie numbers in the second half of the season.

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40 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

I think the projecting we've done on ES on Harmon's likely ceiling is probably a bit optimistic. I like him too but he's not an ideal WR2 candidate that I want to push all the chips in on if we're trying to develop a young QB. This is a historically deep WR class, it's dumb not to keep reloading because we have a couple young guys with potential behind McLaurin that we like. You have to keep reloading, and a deep class allows you to do it for the best value as late as you can reasonably expect. 

 

I like Harmon, again. But I disagree that a 3rd rounder in this strong class wouldn't be that much better a prospect, that's wildly optimistic imo. In a weaker class, Harmon fell past every team in the league (including our GM) till the 6th round. 

Harmon was getting 1st round buzz last year and then fell because of his 40 time. I think if we're giving one rookie a free pass we may as well give all of them a free pass. In the 3rd we would be looking at a Tyler Johnson type of player. Now maybe people think someone on his level is that much better than Harmon, but I just think we have bigger needs elsewhere right now. Hell, Sims also looked good. 

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13 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Harmon was getting 1st round buzz last year and then fell because of his 40 time. I think if we're giving one rookie a free pass we may as well give all of them a free pass. In the 3rd we would be looking at a Tyler Johnson type of player. Now maybe people think someone on his level is that much better than Harmon, but I just think we have bigger needs elsewhere right now. Hell, Sims also looked good. 

 

You arguably have receivers falling into the the 3rd-4th round this year that normally would be late first-2nd round types.  This draft is likely historic for the WR position.  Many long time draft geek types like Jeremiah have said its the best they've ever seen.  I am not bypassing on the buffet and let just about every other team gorge on the spot just because we got Harmon or got other needs.  

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I'd love to see something like this, but I don't think these guys are going to be there:

 

1. Chase Young, DE, Ohio State:

3. Kyle Dugger, S, LR

4. Saahdiq Charles, OT, LSU

4. Michael Pittman, Jr., WR, USC

6. Kamren Curl, CB, Arkansas

7. Michael Divinity, Jr., OLB, LSU

 

Just ran this through one of those new fangled simulators.

 

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3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You arguably have receivers falling into the the 3rd-4th round this year that normally would be late first-2nd round types.  This draft is likely historic for the WR position.  Many long time draft geek types like Jeremiah have said its the best they've ever seen.  I am not bypassing on the buffet and let just about every other team gorge on the spot just because we got Harmon or got other needs.  

 

 

I could not agree more.  The talent at WR this year is scary good, and it's going to slip.... I would not be shocked if BPA in the 3rd IS WR, and there are 2 or 3 on the board to pick from.  

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1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:


Thing with WR is that Rivera want a vet to match up with Terry Mc, so would we then pick one with one of our first 2 picks? Not sure, maybe if we accumulate more picks.

This is a good point.  I do think having the two 4th rounders helps open things up a bit.  

Quote

 

As for CB, wouldn’t disagree. Rivera whilst in CAR drafted DBs heavily in the mid rounds.

Yeah, I could see corner, but receiver, IOL, safety and RB could fit at 3.2 depending on their board.  OTOH, there’s pretty solid depth for all of those, so maybe they go a different direction if a guy they like is available... linebacker or TE, for example.  

While I hope they don’t go too need heavy, the draft seems to mesh fairly well with our needs.  The only spot I’m truly worried about is OT.  
 

It’s going to be a fascinating draft.  
 

@volsmet Have you watched Raekwon Williams?  Seeing him as a 7th rounder and word is he has the tools but needs technique work.  Sounds like a good fit for us - a late round guy that we can bring along slowly, but who has a higher ceiling.  

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1 hour ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Kyle Smith said in the combine interview that the team looks at need at the position. So it really depends on what they think of who we have. We had 3 rookie WRs last year and if Dwayne gets a pass so should Harmon and Sims imo. Harmon got half a season under his belt and started putting up good rookie numbers in the second half of the season.

I think our WR's are gonna be a strength, especially if we add one in free agency...I really like our young guys.. 

Would love to figure out a way to get Winfield, the safety from Minnesota.

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1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

 

@volsmet Have you watched Raekwon Williams?  Seeing him as a 7th rounder and word is he has the tools but needs technique work.  Sounds like a good fit for us - a late round guy that we can bring along slowly, but who has a higher ceiling.  


Nothing on Raequan yet, but I know he struggled this weekend & he’s supposed to be a phenomenal human. I’m going to see if I can check him out tonight.

 


 

Profootballtalk confirms the Jaguars are interested in trading Nick Foles but reports there have been "no substantive talks."

It's not hard to understand why, as Foles' albatross $15.125 million salary is fully guaranteed and moving him would trigger an $18.75 million cap charge. CBS' Jason La Canfora reports trading Foles is "likely impossible" unless the Jags kick in a draft pick. Foles' Jags deal had the looks of a disaster from the second it was signed, but it has turned out even worse than expected.

Mar 3, 2020, 5:00 PM ET
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On 2/16/2019 at 2:50 PM, volsmet said:

 

 

 

I’d rather trade up to #1 — and then draft Grier — than make Foles a top 5 paid QB. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Harmon was getting 1st round buzz last year and then fell because of his 40 time. I think if we're giving one rookie a free pass we may as well give all of them a free pass. In the 3rd we would be looking at a Tyler Johnson type of player. Now maybe people think someone on his level is that much better than Harmon, but I just think we have bigger needs elsewhere right now. Hell, Sims also looked good. 

You sure about that. I don't think he was ever getting first round buzz, though I would agree that pending his combine, he was considered a top 4-6 WR in the class (a good class at that), the problem wasn't just the forty, he flopped in literally every single athletic test. He finished:

Speed Score: 4.60/forty (which is actually 70th percentile size adjusted, but 30th percentile when not adjusted for size)

Burst Score (explosion drills: Vetical leap and Broad Jump): 14th Percentile (significantly worse than his 40)

Agility Score: 22nd percentile

Dominator: 54th Percentile

Breakout Age: 44th Percentile

 

If it was just the forty, it wouldn't have been a problem, especially at 4.60, that's not a killer at his size, as people love to say, Rice was supposedly a 4.65 forty, but a picture perfect route runner who had everything else down. The problem with Harmon the prospect was that the athletic profile ACROSS THE BOARD was god awful and he didn't have a great production profile either, and his breakout age also was subpar. With that in mind, what exactly were you getting?  A guy that was a pretty good producer, but not great, and a terrible athlete. I still liked him at the time, especially at the bargain basement price we got him (a guy with a top 60 or so consensus ranking pre-combine, to be had like in the 200's is lovely). 

 

The problem is that he was a sixth rounder in an inferior WR class to this one. You think he's as good as WR's w/third round grades in this class, but that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. He was a sixth rounder last year, last year's WR class was pretty top heavy, and shallow after that, this year's is a light up top (the best of the best are very good, but not superstar types) but monstrously deep. There's a good 14-15 WR's Id happily snag at the top of round 3. I don't know if they'll last that long, and some will probably drop much lower like Tyler Johnson, and Bryan Edwards, but there's a giant pile of guys I'd gladly take ahead of Harmon. My favorite round 3 guys would include the aforementioned Johnson and Edwards (who are going to be day 3 picks, and so can be had later), as well as Shenault, Peoples-Jones, and Pittman. I honestly don't have a feel for where 2 of those 3 go, and I do wonder if Pittman is gone by then after his combine. Shenault and Edwards may come with such an epic discount that they make sense to be selections in round 4, I don't know where Peoples-Jones goes, he doesn't have the production profile, but he's suffering from the same problem Akers suffered with, horrific support in his offense. Peoples-Jones was a five star mega recruit who failed to produce because Harbaugh has had nothing but garbage at QB since he went to Michigan, how much of a discount do you get/give for that? Not sure. CBS has him as a mid 3rd round prospect. Did he climb since that combine performance? I imagine yes: 

speed score: 86th percentile

burst score: 99th percentile

dominator: 36th percentile (blech)

breakout age: 76th percentile

 

So w/our third, I'd probably pass on WR as well because I expect a couple of guys I like to fall further, but if a couple of guys slip to the early third like Peoples-Jones, like Shenault (much more athletic than he tested due to injury, also more productive as he was apparently injured all season, and just played through it), after them, Pittman would be the last guy I'd consider. I'm not going to consider the rest of the guys in my top 10-15 because all of them probably will go off the board sooner. Pittman scares me due to breakout age, but he's still an interesting guy to consider. 

 

So yeah, for me, go OT in round 3 or best available player unless one of those WR's is available, then it's a long hard think, while acknowleding that we could probably get a WR just as interesting in Edwards a round later, and Johnson sounds like he could be had in the same kind of place as Harmon last year, but like Edwards, it feels like he is too similar a prospect to Harmon to make a ton of sense. 

 

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

It's why I argue the NFL scouts are just not very smart. 

 

He's scary fast, did a wonderful job finding the end zone for Alabama, and there's literally ZERO WR's with his profile that weren't straight up busts over the past decade plus. The best producer with an analogous profile is Ted Ginn, and literally noone thought he was worth the investment within a year of his selection.  I get being attracted to the TD's, to the speed, to the athleticism, to the Alabama Helmet, but come, man, it's just absurd. 

12 catches

46 catches

40 catches. 

 

No breakout age because there isn't a breakout season, market share is awful (17th percentile), you can give him a bit of a mulligan for the Ohio State effect (see Michael Thomas and Terry McLaurin), but man, the hits on these guys in round 1 are literally non-existent. It's important to note that when Thomas and McLaurin had similarly ugly market share #'s and breakout issues, both had day 2 draft capital cost, a HUGE discount compared to the cost this tweet is suggesting will be expended to acquire Ruggs.

 

Maybe he hits, like those Ohio State guys, Alabama did have an embarrassment of riches at WR when he was there ('17-'19), multiple first round WR's, so there's that, so maybe he breaks out. But guys like Jeudy, Reagor, Lamb, Jefferson etc have so so so much cleaner profiles. It's insane to me to take a risk on a guy like Ruggs whose basically got no 1st round player comps who've succeeded w/his profile. It's John Ross, it's Ted Ginn, It's Donte stallworth (who was actually productive at Tennessee), kinda Robert Meachem and kinda Cord Patterson also out of Tennessee, Heyward-Bey, Kevin White and B. Perriman in the '15 class, there are a sprinkling of guys that have a somewhat similar profile, and they're just a giant pile of busts. 

 

This isn't to say that Ruggs will be a bust, he's a mega athlete, and like McClaurin and Thomas at OSU, he was battling a gigantic pile of future day 1 and day 2 NFL prospects for playing time which explains some of the issues in terms of production, but man, when you are using a top 10-15 pick in the NFL draft, a draft this deep at the position, why are you taking on so much crazy risk with your first rounder? Just strikes me as insane, way too much bust risk for a position noted for piles of busts, and not terribly wise to use early 1sts on to begin with, even when the profiles are actually good. Yikes. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, volsmet said:


Nothing on Raequan yet, but I know he struggled this weekend & he’s supposed to be a phenomenal human. I’m going to see if I can check him out tonight.

 


 

Profootballtalk confirms the Jaguars are interested in trading Nick Foles but reports there have been "no substantive talks."

It's not hard to understand why, as Foles' albatross $15.125 million salary is fully guaranteed and moving him would trigger an $18.75 million cap charge. CBS' Jason La Canfora reports trading Foles is "likely impossible" unless the Jags kick in a draft pick. Foles' Jags deal had the looks of a disaster from the second it was signed, but it has turned out even worse than expected.

Mar 3, 2020, 5:00 PM ET
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I would love to acquire Foles and that albatross of a contract from the Jags for their 2nd round pick in April, and a 3rd round pick in 2021. 😉 Hey, we can throw them our 7th this year and a sixth next year to sweeten the medicine a bit. 

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38 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

It's why I argue the NFL scouts are just not very smart. 

 


They are the coal miners of the sports world; hard working folk who make this world a slightly lesser place ... on the job ...as well as off the clock. 
 

 

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