2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Yeah, I know which article you're referring to.  I take that one largely with a grain of salt, because from what I recall, the biggest reason the Bayesian model predicted Haskins would have less success than the other rookie QBs was due to his limited snaps compared to the others.  They said if he had his same numbers with a higher snap count, he would actually separate himself from the other QB's.

 

Regardless, it's funny that some of their analysts dog on him so much when they collectively gave him the 2nd highest rookie QB grade.

 

Personally, I lean optimistic about his play because of how the last 2 games played out.  I do have concerns about his intangibles.  But I am hoping he overcomes them.

 

But as for PFF, yeah they are somewhat schizophrenic about Haskins.  They have one dude who really pushes him hard.  And they got others who push it back in the other direction. 

 

There was another article besides the Beyseian model.  I'll look for it at some point but it centered squarely on Haskins and their thought of him having high bust potential.

 

I just reread the Beyseian article.  It is more interesting than I thought considering they didn't like the other rookies chances either aside from Murray.

 

I know they put a lot of stock in QBs who excel with a clean pocket or not

 

https://thespun.com/nfl/nfc-east/washington-redskins/dwayne-haskins-was-the-worst-qb-in-the-nfl-with-a-clean-pocket-last-year-per-pff

Dwayne Haskins Was The Worst QB In The NFL With A Clean Pocket Last Year, Per PFF

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-what-we-know-about-kyler-murray-daniel-jones-2019-quarterback-class

 

THE SUCCESSES

Keep in mind when viewing these results that higher-drafted quarterbacks have an advantage with their forecasts, so a very strong rookie performer like Russell Wilson won’t look nearly as strong as a weaker one like Andrew Luck due to the massive difference in draft status.

Murray is in the same area as the successes who performed better in terms of EPA than PFF grade, and those successes include Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. However, the landscape is a bit more troubling for Jones, Minshew and Haskins. Most of the successful rookie quarterbacks produced forecasts in the upper half of the plot post-rookie season, with Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Derek Carr being the only successes below Minshew and Jones. There haven’t been any successes since 2007 for rookies who performed as poorly as Haskins in terms of EPA per dropback.

THE BUSTS

Highlighting the rookies who didn’t end up as franchise QBs shows a significant bias towards the bottom-left of the plot. Yet there are some rookies with promising beginnings who didn’t end up as successes — players like Robert Griffin III, Marcus Mariota and Sam Bradford.

Murray is largely in the clear, but the rest of the 2019 class is in the thick of bust territory. Minshew will try to avoid being part of the unholy Jaguars trinity along with prior top-10 picks Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles, who occupy roughly the same spot on the plot. The only quarterback worse than Haskins in terms of EPA forecast is Josh Rosen, who I’m declaring a bust already despite not having finished out his rookie deal.

 

 

[Burgold]

Haskins is tough to figure out because he was so incredibly awful his first few outings. The QB we saw in his first three appearances and his last two looked nothing alike. So, Dwayne remains a mystery and is probably a case where statistical analysis is bound to be wrong. After all, each game can be treated as an outlier to the trend.

 

The best answer to the question of Dwyane Haskins is... "I don't know."

[KDawg]

Rookie QB Stats, all projected out to a 16 game sample size (which isn't a great method of doing things, but it illustrates a point):

 

A: 12-4, 320/499 (64%), 3264 yards, 36 TD/7 INT, 16 sacks, 7 fumbles, 58 rushes, 230 yards

B : 8-8, 326/537 (60.7%), 3738 yards, 24 TD/7 INT, 38 sacks, 15 fumbles, 77 rushes, 393 yards

C : 5-10-1, 349/542 (64.4%), 3722 yards, 20 TD/12 INT, 48 sacks, 5 fumbles, 93 rushes, 544 yards, 4 TD

D : 4-12, 349/564 (61.8%), 3726 yards, 30 TD/15 INT, 47 sacks, 22 fumbles, 55 rushes, 343 yards, 2 TD

E : 5-11, 212/361 (58.7%), 2427 yards, 20 TD/20 INT, 51 sacks, 11 fumbles, 35 rushes, 180 yards

 

Now, humor me. I know someone is going to say, "stats never tell the whole story" - and know this, I agree completely. But if you were trying to talk someone into which quarterback was the best to worst in a ranking situation, which order would you put these guys? Just based on numbers. There's obviously more that goes into it, AND, there's nothing saying that year 2 won't look a lot different. 

 

What's your order?

[PartyPosse]

9 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Haskins is tough to figure out because he was so incredibly awful his first few outings. The QB we saw in his first three appearances and his last two looked nothing alike. So, Dwayne remains a mystery and is probably a case where statistical analysis is bound to be wrong. After all, each game can be treated as an outlier to the trend.

 

The best answer to the question of Dwyane Haskins is... "I don't know."

Better than starting out well and getting worse as he went along, isn’t it?

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Burgold said:

 

The best answer to the question of Dwyane Haskins is... "I don't know."

 

That's my mantra more or less about Haskins.  My quarrel is with those who think they do know with conviction.   And I've debated both camps on it.    If you listen to the beat guys, they more or less said that the current staff doesn't know either but have some optimism. 

[Poindexter]

17 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Haskins is tough to figure out because he was so incredibly awful his first few outings. The QB we saw in his first three appearances and his last two looked nothing alike. So, Dwayne remains a mystery and is probably a case where statistical analysis is bound to be wrong. After all, each game can be treated as an outlier to the trend.

 

The best answer to the question of Dwyane Haskins is... "I don't know."

Very good answer.....

I think the best thing to do if you don't know is to give him more reps and see if he can develop.  If he cannot then get the best defensive player in year in Chase Young and maybe the best offensive player in years in Trevor Lawrence next year.

 

or...if we are lucky we might get Jalen Hurts in round 3.  He would become very intriguing if we gather more picks from trading Trent or Dunbar.

[HTTRDynasty]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Dwayne Haskins Was The Worst QB In The NFL With A Clean Pocket Last Year, Per PFF

 

As I said though, they are constantly contradicting themselves.  His PFF grade from a clean pocket is shown below in PFF's 2020 QB Annual.  He is right at the NFL average (green line):

 

 

Regarding the Bayesian forecast article, this is the conclusion I was referring to:

 

"Haskins had the second-best grade of the group (67.6). His Bayesian forecast doesn't best his fellow first-rounders because he had fewer dropbacks (245) than both Murray (620) and Jones (527), but if Haskins continues to outperform with more volume, his forecast will separate from the others in 2020."

 

 

Also, I personally don't put much stock in EPA per dropback because it leaves out context, like Callahan deciding to run on 1st and 2nd down more than any other coach in the league, leading to consistent 3rd and long situations, which obviously leads to less expected points.  Let alone failing to account for the lack of talent around Haskins.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

22 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 it always annoys me a little when a team with a reasonable roster like Cincy, or Detroit, manages to grab a top pick simply because of issues at QB. Detroit was locked into a 7th-15th type pick before Stafford went down, now 1.03.

 

I don't think the Bengals and Lions rosters are as good as you think they are.  Detroit was definitely trending towards a mid-round pick with a surprisingly good offense, but their defense was a dumpster fire.  The Bengals have spent a boatload of capital on the o-line lately (3 firsts and a 2nd rounder) and the rookie was on IR all year, and the other 3 busted and are either riding the bench, out of the league, or on another team.

 

22 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

The Bengals essentially willed themselves the 1.01 by benching Dalton for most of the season, if they hadn't do that they'd be picking outside the top 5 for sure). 

 

Andy Dalton started 13 games for them...

 

Why else did you think everyone has a QB as a lock for the Bengals at #1 overall.

 

22 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

My problem with the Young pick, is that it doesn't really have a transformative value to me with the team. I love him, and would be happy to have him, but I have issues with it, which include: not transformative position like QB is,

...

no matter how bad we might be at QB, the defense alone w/win us games, too many games,

 

That sure sounds like a transformative pick to me.  If the addition of Young suddenly boosts the defense enough to win that many more games...then he's a transformative player.  Period.

 

22 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

and we will not be able to fix QB due to poor draft slotting barring a miracle (every once in a while you have a QB hit in the blue chip zone, but it's vastly less frequent than typical franchise QB's hitting which is also only about a 45-50/50 scenario). 

 

I disagree with this.

 

Looking at a 10 year stretch of QB's drafted from 2008-2017 (so at least 3 years of sample size), here's who's playing well:

Picks 1-5:

Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz

Picks 6-32:

Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson

Picks 33+:

Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo

 

If we go back to QB's drafted before 2007.  Here are the older QB's who have played well in the NFL over the last 2 seasons:

Picks 1-5:

Philip Rivers

Picks 6-32:

Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers

Picks 33+:

Drew Brees, Tom Brady

 

So from this, we'll count the best QB's in the league as being taken in the draft slots of:

Picks 1-5:

4 times

Picks 6-32:

5 times

Picks 33+:

6 times

 

This list has 15 QB's in it.  That's roughly half the league.  And 2/3rds of the those QB's have not come from a Top 5 pick.  The benefits of this, are that if you have a good team, you don't need nearly the draft capital to trade up in the 6-32 range to pick a QB you like, as you do in the 1-5 range.

 

The organization and the coaching is what matters most with development of a QB.  After that, talent and hard work can overcome awkward situations and environments.  Eli Manning and Joe Flacco should have busted out of the NFL (imo), but Tom Coughlin and the Ravens organization saved them.  Likewise, from a traditional talent standpoint, there's a reason Tom Brady went in the 6th round.  But hard work, and the best run organization of all time in the Patriots turned him into a legend.

 

Have a good team, with a well established culture, and is competitive in games also matters to a QB's development.  I think there's no doubt Ben Roethlisberger is better for having been put into the Steelers organization.  Likewise Mahomes with Andy Reid.  Let's be optimists and assume Rivera/Kyle Smith/etc help turn around the Redskins organization.  If they can't, then it doesn't matter if Haskins, or Tua, or Lawrence etc is drafted...odds are low that any of them don't bust.

 

Having a clear cut good organization, with good coaching, and a good team/roster around them will help any new QB develop.  If Haskins does not develop, then whoever we draft outside of the Top 5 in 2021 draft or 2022 draft, will have a greater shot to become a quality QB, than if we have a bad organization with a rotation of coaches messing up development like Sam Bradford had. 

 

For funsies

Here's the 2018 draft, and let's see who looks like they could have an NFL future

Picks 1-5:

#1 pick, Baker Mayfield, talent is clear, and looked so promising in his rookie season.  But the mess that is the Cleveland Browns organization caused a big regression.  Does he come out of that?

#3 pick, Sam Darnold looks like a below average QB, and I'm tempted to not include him.

Picks 6-32:

#7 pick, Josh Allen, clear improvement from Year 1 to Year 2.  But still needs more.

#32 pick, Lamar Jackson, so far, looks like a huge hit.

Picks 33+:

Nobody notable

 

For the 2019 draft, here are the QB's who look like they could have an NFL future

Picks 1-5:

#1 Kyler Murray

Picks 6-32:

#6 Daniel Jones

#15 Dwayne Haskins

Picks 33+:

2nd rounder, Drew Lock

6th rounder, Gardner Minshew

 

We have no way of knowing yet what we've got from the 2018 and 2019 draft classes, but it doesn't seem like being drafted outside of the Top 5 has hurt the chances of any of them.  If anything, Lamar Jackson has been saved by not going Top 5, and by being on the Ravens.  Seriously, what are the odds Jackson busts if he was drafted by the Browns or Jets instead of Mayfield/Darnold?  I'd put that at virtually 100%.

 

[Idaho fan]

The front office is doing their part to appear to have interest in Tua.  As they should.  Of course they have to do their due diligence but I don't believe for a second they will take Tua.  Its Chase or a ransom of picks from the Dolphins... Cincy will take Burrow.  Skins take Chase. 

 

I do like that some are mocking the Skins taking Tua though... 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Also, I personally don't put much stock in EPA per dropback because it leaves out context, like Callahan deciding to run on 1st and 2nd down more than any other coach in the league, leading to consistent 3rd and long situations, which obviously leads to less expected points.  Let alone failing to account for the lack of talent around Haskins.

 

Agree about factoring context. My take on PFF in general is I like to use their metrics but it doesn't factor context so I take it as in ingredient but not the be all and end all ingredient.

 

I am not a big lack of talent guy around him guy as to Haskins in the context of the argument at least if its comparing him to other rookie QBs over the years.  A bunch of rookie QB had bad talent around him.  Daniel Jones had mostly crap to work with all season.   Though I do agree his talent wasn't hot. 

 

But I do put stock in the last two games and the curve trending up.  I agree with that.  My only pause on that is he played two atrocious pass defenses but otherwise I don't mind the focus on the last two games.   If he didn't have those 2 games I'd be very down on Haskins.  But those 2 games lifted my spirits about his chances. 

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree about factoring context. My take on PFF in general is I like to use their metrics but it doesn't factor context so I take it as in ingredient but not the be all and end all ingredient.

 

I am not a big lack of talent guy around him guy as to Haskins in the context of the argument at least if its comparing him to other rookie QBs over the years.  A bunch of rookie QB had bad talent around him.  Daniel Jones had mostly crap to work with all season.   

 

But I do put stock in the last two games and the curve trending up.  I agree with that.  My only pause on that is he played two atrocious pass defenses but otherwise I don't mind the focus on the last two games.   If he didn't have those 2 games I'd be very down on Haskins.  But those 2 games lifted my spirits about his chances. 

 

Fair enough.  It's just amusing to me the degree to which some of the PFF guys cherry-pick their stats to make their argument.  For example, I just went back and read that "Dwayne Haskins Was The Worst QB In The NFL With A Clean Pocket Last Year, Per PFF" article you referred to.  Here's what it actually says:

 

No quarterback with at least 200 clean dropbacks in 2019 recorded a lower clean-pocket passer rating than Washington Redskins rookie signal-caller Dwayne Haskins at 81.8. He completed just 63.2% of his attempts for 1,089 yards, five touchdowns and five picks when kept clean a year ago. Haskins, Andy Dalton, Mayfield and Kyle Allen were the only four quarterbacks with sub-90.0 clean-pocket passer ratings in 2019.

 

So they are using clean-pocket passer rating here rather than clean-pocket PFF grade because it suits their "lol Haskins sucks" point a lot better.  In reality, I have seen countless PFF analysts over the years mock passer rating as a legitimate stat because it fails to account for drops from WRs, dropped INTs, penalties, throwaways, 50-50 ball INTs, etc.  Which is the whole reason they invented the clean-pocket PFF grade in the first place to account for all that, lol.  And Haskins is league-average there, which is pretty impressive for a rookie QB.  And it'd be even more impressive if they only included his clean-pocket PFF grade from his starts.

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Rookie QB Stats, all projected out to a 16 game sample size (which isn't a great method of doing things, but it illustrates a point):

 

A: 12-4, 320/499 (64%), 3264 yards, 36 TD/7 INT, 16 sacks, 7 fumbles, 58 rushes, 230 yards

B : 8-8, 326/537 (60.7%), 3738 yards, 24 TD/7 INT, 38 sacks, 15 fumbles, 77 rushes, 393 yards

C : 5-10-1, 349/542 (64.4%), 3722 yards, 20 TD/12 INT, 48 sacks, 5 fumbles, 93 rushes, 544 yards, 4 TD

D : 4-12, 349/564 (61.8%), 3726 yards, 30 TD/15 INT, 47 sacks, 22 fumbles, 55 rushes, 343 yards, 2 TD

E : 5-11, 212/361 (58.7%), 2427 yards, 20 TD/20 INT, 51 sacks, 11 fumbles, 35 rushes, 180 yards

 

Now, humor me. I know someone is going to say, "stats never tell the whole story" - and know this, I agree completely. But if you were trying to talk someone into which quarterback was the best to worst in a ranking situation, which order would you put these guys? Just based on numbers. There's obviously more that goes into it, AND, there's nothing saying that year 2 won't look a lot different. 

 

What's your order?

 

A. Drew Lock?  That was @volsmet's guy  And my favorite aside from Murray but volsmet was a bigger fan of him than me but I liked him, too.

B.  Minshew?  His stats weren't bad so that would translate here

C.  I am presuming Kyler Murray because of all the rushes. 

D. Jones.  the giveaway for me is the fumbles. 

E.  By process of elimination Haskins?

 

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Fair enough.  It's just amusing to me the degree to which some of the PFF guys cherry-pick their stats to make their argument. 

 

Agree. Like I said they've cherry picked it in a positive and negative way.   There is one dude their really positive about Haskins and a couple really negative. 

 

I just pulled their aggregate advanced stats.

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I just pulled their aggregate advanced stats.

 

Probably more informative if you could filter for attempts.  There are some QB's in there with very minimal attempts.  But yeah, I don't disagree Haskins looks bad in some stats.  But there is definitely some weird bias among certain PFF guys in regards to Haskins.  I think overall they should stick to posting stats that they've found tend to correlate well to future success.  Spoiler alert: passer rating is nowhere to be found.

 

[Koolblue13]

Eventually we will know unanimously who our QB is and collectively agree it's a good thing and well be able to talk about it all in one single thread and I'll rejoice.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

54 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Eventually we will know unanimously who our QB is and collectively agree it's a good thing and well be able to talk about it all in one single thread and I'll rejoice.

 

Haha, yup.  I was about to post a long response to QB Stats...but then realized I wasn't sure what thread I was in.

[HigSkin]

😂

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Probably more informative if you could filter for attempts.  There are some QB's in there with very minimal attempts.  But yeah, I don't disagree Haskins looks bad in some stats.  But there is definitely some weird bias among certain PFF guys in regards to Haskins.  I think overall they should stick to posting stats that they've found tend to correlate well to future success.  Spoiler alert: passer rating is nowhere to be found.

 

 

Sure.  I wasn't though trying to make a point about Haskins stats.  I just looked them up on PFF to see what they were.  Like I said I got no problem riding on the last two games and hoping on that.  Like I say on the Haskins thread, I want whatever they want.  If they love what they see and want to ride it, cool, I got no problem with that.  If they have concerns and don't ride it, I got no problem with that either.  I really don't know one way or another.

 

Everything being equal, I'd much rather draft Chase Young and ride with Haskins.  And I'd guess 90% chance or so that's what happens.  I just don't put any stock in my opinion on the subject because the questions about Haskins seems to be centered on commitment and I gather since they see that every day, they'd know how that's going whereas I'd have no idea. 

 

 

  

[HTTRDynasty]

Would be incredible if Jeudy falls considering the hype on him last year.  Just take a look at the early pages of this thread.  The love for Jeudy was tangible (myself included).

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Would be incredible if Jeudy falls considering the hype on him last year.  Just take a look at the early pages of this thread.  The love for Jeudy was tangible (myself included).

 

 

 

Yeah that would be interesting.  It's another reason why I'd trade Haskins and try to get a 2nd.  Imagine if someone like him surprisingly drops that far?  

 

 

 

DJ's new mock

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah that would be interesting.  It's another reason why I'd trade Haskins and try to get a 2nd.  Imagine if someone like him surprisingly drops that far?  

 

I'm assuming you meant Trent here...

[Est.1974]

5 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I'm assuming you meant Trent here...

nah, the truth always comes out in the end 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I'm assuming you meant Trent here...

 

Lol, yes, I meant Trent.  Too much Haskins on my brain.  😀

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

Claypool at TE is growing on me, I'd want him to put on 10 pounds or so, i am a 250-260 TE kind of guy, i want a guy with the size to block.  

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

Out of curiosity for those who know more than I, when I look at guys like Tanner Muse and Chase Claypool, based on say the last 5 or so years, guys that blow up because of the combine, get drafted way higher than expected because of their performance at the combine, how often do those buzz-worthy players live up to or exceed the buzz they generate from their combine performance? I like at players like John Ross and Brashaud Perriman who shot up because of their 40 times, but failed to live up to those expectations. How often do players actually live up to them?