2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I was one of the leaders maybe even the leader of draft Derwin James crowd in 2018.  But for me easily Bosa > James.  

 

I love the hybrid defender types but I'd still take an elite pass rusher over them.

 

Yeah, same.  It's an interesting debate I'm sure some teams are having, with PFF and other analytics sites recent findings that Coverage > Pass Rush in today's game (I think the Ravens have already embraced this philosophy), but I think that should apply to coverage units as a whole rather than individual players.  Also, pass rush is more stable from year to year.

 

2 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I would take Simmons over Derwin, hands down.  But I should caveat that with I like Derwin as a player.  He's really good, but I think he's overrated given how insane his hype is.

 

 

What makes you choose Simmons over Derwin?  Superior athleticism? 

[DefinitelyMaybe]

Seeing the depth at WR has got me hoping we trade TW for the most we can get for him hopefully a high end 2nd or late 1st, replace him with a Castonzo or Conklin and use the pick on a receiver as the FA Receiver group this year outside of Coop looks dour

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

What makes you choose Simmons over Derwin?  Superior athleticism? 

 

That, size, and health are physical pluses for Simmons.  I don't watch many or any Chargers games, so it's hard to really say how's he's been.  He wasn't as productive this past season coming off his injury.

 

But from the last season of college, Simmons played better with his back to the ball than Derwin did.  He played better in deeper coverage assignments.  His change of direction was better when trying to take away throwing lanes as a QB was making his reads.

 

Derwin was stellar at making a read and exploding downhill to attack it.  But moving laterally his play speed fell off.  Simmons does not have that issue.

 

Derwin would be an upgrade over Landon Collins who is a really good but limited player.  But I don't think Derwin was a perfect prospect.

 

I think Simmons is much closer to a perfect prospect than Derwin.  I also think Chase Young and Okudah are some of the best prospects to come out in years.  With Young being the best in a long time.

 

That doesn't always translate to the NFL and sometimes prospects get even better in the NFL.  I loved JJ Watt in that draft, but at no point did I guess he would become the player he did.

[The Consigliere]

42 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I was one of the leaders maybe even the leader of draft Derwin James crowd in 2018.  But for me easily Bosa > James.  

 

I love the hybrid defender types but I'd still take an elite pass rusher over them.

 

Now that's something we can share some bitter tears over. That was nearly enough to make me quit on being a redskins fan, just too many decades of epic stupidity. It's been nice to see Payne turn into a legit DL, which it thought he could probably be, but it sure as hell felt like a panic "need" pick a la the Giants taking Flowers after we shocked them and took Scherrf (w/us losing out by one pick on Vita Vea). You just don't pick guys that grade out as potentially solid to good DT's over difference making ALL Pro level talents like James. Just so bitter over that. Rosa is another thing entirely and I'd agree there. Generally, you need to account for replacement cost in terms of draft capital, and cap dollars via FA for players that are potentially elite at various positions, and Edge is simply vastly more expensive in both areas than a Safety. 

 

I'm at total loggerheads over what's going to happen. So so so so glad we managed to execute a perfect tank while the Giants and Dolphins fumbled theirs away (and the Lions lucked into theres, it always annoys me a little when a team with a reasonable roster like Cincy, or Detroit, manages to grab a top pick simply because of issues at QB. Detroit was locked into a 7th-15th type pick before Stafford went down, now 1.03. The Bengals essentially willed themselves the 1.01 by benching Dalton for most of the season, if they hadn't do that they'd be picking outside the top 5 for sure). 

 

Anyway, I'm fairly certain of what I'd do in order:

1. Take Tua

2. I've now moved to trading down for a the 1.05, another 1st, another day 2 pick in '20 and a 1st in '21 if that's possible.

3. Just take Young. 

 

I love that none of the options are actually bad. If Tua blows up in our face, we'll implode, and be able to reboot picking very high. In scenario 2, which in many ways makes the most sense of all, we get the ammo to address multiple holes instead of 1, and also have the ammo to trade up for Lawrence (or just suck enough for him) next year if we can get a '21 1st in the trade down. 

 

My problem with the Young pick, is that it doesn't really have a transformative value to me with the team. I love him, and would be happy to have him, but I have issues with it, which include: not transformative position like QB is, secondly, the DL we build will repeatedly be called into question by the impending FA of Allen in '22, Payne in '23, Sweat in '24, and Chase himself in '25. You simply can't keep all that together, it's too costly with Iron Man already having been resigned, then you add in that a front four that devastating, no matter how bad we might be at QB, the defense alone w/win us games, too many games, and we will not be able to fix QB due to poor draft slotting barring a miracle (every once in a while you have a QB hit in the blue chip zone, but it's vastly less frequent than typical franchise QB's hitting which is also only about a 45-50/50 scenario). 

 

So for me, the Young selection only really succeeds for us long term if Haskins hits as a legit top 10-12 QB, and that's the most far fetched of all propositions to me. You have a solid QB prospect in him in terms of arm talent, no mobility which hurts, and then you have the massive pile of rumors that he isn't the kind of guy that likes to put the work in, and if true, good lord was that ever a mistake of a selection. yes I know it is rumors, but it's all over the place, and usually rumors of that scale have at least some basis in fact, and not just jealousy. His oft-foolish behavior (not horrible, just not the kind of thing you want to see a franchise QB doing) didn't win him any favors either.

 

It could be vastly worse. In early December we looked like we had no better than 5-15% odds of landing the 1.02 and all the options that came with it, now, nearly three months later we have a million options and none of them are bad, just varying degrees of wise to me. To be able to land the consensus #1 overall pick and best QB from the summer (and really the past two years) or the best edge rushing prospect in a decade, or trade back and get a giant pile of gold? As bad as I expected this past season to be, I just didn't expect us to be that fortunate, especially as late November/Early December evolved.  

 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

6 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

That, size, and health are physical pluses for Simmons.  I don't watch many or any Chargers games, so it's hard to really say how's he's been.  He wasn't as productive this past season coming off his injury.

 

But from the last season of college, Simmons played better with his back to the ball than Derwin did.  He played better in deeper coverage assignments.  His change of direction was better when trying to take away throwing lanes as a QB was making his reads.

 

Derwin was stellar at making a read and exploding downhill to attack it.  But moving laterally his play speed fell off.  Simmons does not have that issue.

 

Derwin would be an upgrade over Landon Collins who is a really good but limited player.  But I don't think Derwin was a perfect prospect.

 

I think Simmons is much closer to a perfect prospect than Derwin.  I also think Chase Young and Okudah are some of the best prospects to come out in years.  With Young being the best in a long time.

 

That doesn't always translate to the NFL and sometimes prospects get even better in the NFL.  I loved JJ Watt in that draft, but at no point did I guess he would become the player he did.

 

In his last year of college, James was still trying to get back to top form after his Sophomore year injury.  He was incredible his freshman year, but that drop-off in his junior year is likely the biggest reason he dropped in the draft.  It's been an unfortunate theme with him, which is why I could definitely see preferring Simmons when factoring in health.

 

When James is healthy, I think he is more natural than Simmons is in coverage.  I think he has better instincts and is more physical.  He was also a year younger than Simmons when he came out of school.

 

I think Simmons is better in the box, especially when blitzing.  Here's a breakdown of where they lined up during their final seasons of college.

 

 

You can see that, although they were both extremely versatile, Simmons played in the box more often. I think that's where he'll excel in the league.  But I would take the player who's more natural in coverage over the alternative.

 

I agree that James wasn't a perfect prospect by any means, and I think they're pretty much neck and neck as prospects when factoring in the questions about James' health.  I guess I'd just take the risk with James in this case.  I'm just not convinced Simmons will consistently perform at an All-Pro level when healthy like I think James will.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen both injured their hammys running the 40.  This is why I don't mind when the top guys decide not to run at the combine.

Might be a blessing for them in all honesty. They both posted great times in their first runs. And now they can skip the rest of their off field workouts and live off of their tape. Which is excellent for both by the way.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This is from the local paper in South Florida.  I'll say this.  If this is all about smoke and mirrors, then this FO is pretty good at playing that game.  I don't know one way or another or have a good feel for it, every day almost I get a different impression.😀

 

The writer who actually thinks an NFL team would spend the second overall pick to create a quarterback competition needs to be slapped.  I think we can file that one away in the pre-draft nonsense folder.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The writer who actually thinks an NFL team would spend the second overall pick to create a quarterback competition needs to be slapped.  I think we can file that one away in the pre-draft nonsense folder.

Agreed. If Tua is coming here Haskins is going.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The writer who actually thinks an NFL team would spend the second overall pick to create a quarterback competition needs to be slapped.  I think we can file that one away in the pre-draft nonsense folder.

 

If you draft a QB at 2 it’s a competition in name only. The new guy is the QB.

[Going Commando]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

If you draft a QB at 2 it’s a competition in name only. The new guy is the QB.

 

They would trade Haskins before the end of the night if they pick Tua.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The writer who actually thinks an NFL team would spend the second overall pick to create a quarterback competition needs to be slapped.  I think we can file that one away in the pre-draft nonsense folder.

 

He was much more blunt than that.  It wasn't an opinion piece about what he thinks they should do.  He said that's what he heard Rivera has said and what he's thinking.  Now that could end up wrong or a smoke screen, etc.

 

I agree that they'd likely trade Haskins if they took Tua.  But some see in that scenario sticking with both to duke it out.  That's how Kiper sees it, ditto PFF in this article. 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-why-sprinting-to-the-podium-at-no-2-overall-with-chase-young-on-the-card-might-be-a-bad-idea

 

Edit:  reading the article and ignoring the tweet from Burgundy Blog who misquoted the article -- the reporter didn't say Rivera but suggested whomever was interviewing him. 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

4.48 and 4.50 40yd dash for Okudah.  Not bad, but not great either.  Feel bad for him.  I know how badly he wanted to shine there.

[KDawg]

Asking Haskins to compete is such a mistake. He has to be in the drivers seat if you intend to develop him. He does not learn as the backup. He learns from doing. He has no interest in being a backup, we saw that last season.

 

We do him a disservice if we take a QB high and throw on a dog and pony competition. If we draft a quarterback, recoup what you can for Haskins and move on. 
 

If Haskins is your guy, bring in a Bortles type and move forward. I’d love to see what PJ Walker offers an NFL franchise as a backup option, too.
 

[Est.1974]

Got to love all this pre draft combine noise. Having pick #2 is fairly interesting right now. 

[Poindexter]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Asking Haskins to compete is such a mistake. He has to be in the drivers seat if you intend to develop him. He does not learn as the backup. He learns from doing. He has no interest in being a backup, we saw that last season.

 

We do him a disservice if we take a QB high and throw on a dog and pony competition. If we draft a quarterback, recoup what you can for Haskins and move on. 
 

If Haskins is your guy, bring in a Bortles type and move forward. I’d love to see what PJ Walker offers an NFL franchise as a backup option, too.
 

I like your thinking, but I would beg Josh McCown to come back for another year.  I even think bringing Nate Sudfeld back would be a great idea as well.

 

But like you stated...would be a huge mistake to bring in a QB who is drafted within the first 3 picks.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Now that's something we can share some bitter tears over. That was nearly enough to make me quit on being a redskins fan, just too many decades of epic stupidity. It's been nice to see Payne turn into a legit DL, which it thought he could probably be, but it sure as hell felt like a panic "need" pick a la the Giants taking Flowers after we shocked them and took Scherrf (w/us losing out by one pick on Vita Vea). You just don't pick guys that grade out as potentially solid to good DT's over difference making ALL Pro level talents like James. Just so bitter over that. Rosa is another thing entirely and I'd agree there. Generally, you need to account for replacement cost in terms of draft capital, and cap dollars via FA for players that are potentially elite at various positions, and Edge is simply vastly more expensive in both areas than a Safety

 

 

 

 

My kid was within earshot of the TV trying to sleep when the draft was on and I woke him up because I screamed so loud when they passed over Derwin.  I didn't dislike Payne as a prospect but I didn't think he was the same caliber player as Derwin.  And I still feel this way.

 

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I love that none of the options are actually bad. If Tua blows up in our face, we'll implode, and be able to reboot picking very high. In scenario 2, which in many ways makes the most sense of all, we get the ammo to address multiple holes instead of 1, and also have the ammo to trade up for Lawrence (or just suck enough for him) next year if we can get a '21 1st in the trade down. 

 

Me, too.  Love Chase Young.  I love Tua if he's healthy.  I love a bunch of players if they trade down.  Taking Chase is still my top choice but if they don't believe in Haskins (I don't know one way or another) then take Tua.

 

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

My problem with the Young pick, is that it doesn't really have a transformative value to me with the team. I love him, and would be happy to have him, but I have issues with it, which include: not transformative position like QB is, secondly, the DL we build will repeatedly be called into question by the impending FA of Allen in '22, Payne in '23, Sweat in '24, and Chase himself in '25. You simply can't keep all that together, it's too costly with Iron Man already having been resigned, then you add in that a front four that devastating, no matter how bad we might be at QB, the defense alone w/win us games, too many games, and we will not be able to fix QB due to poor draft slotting barring a miracle (every once in a while you have a QB hit in the blue chip zone, but it's vastly less frequent than typical franchise QB's hitting which is also only about a 45-50/50 scenario). 

 

 

 

Will see.  Ironically I'd try to ink Allen and Payne right now in part because neither justifies a monster contract.  They might justify it next season if we get Young.  Cap is supposed to go dramatically in 2021.  Supposedly Kerrigan's extension might come with a salary cut.  

 

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

So for me, the Young selection only really succeeds for us long term if Haskins hits as a legit top 10-12 QB, and that's the most far fetched of all propositions to me. You have a solid QB prospect in him in terms of arm talent, no mobility which hurts, and then you have the massive pile of rumors that he isn't the kind of guy that likes to put the work in, and if true, good lord was that ever a mistake of a selection. yes I know it is rumors, but it's all over the place, and usually rumors of that scale have at least some basis in fact, and not just jealousy. His oft-foolish behavior (not horrible, just not the kind of thing you want to see a franchise QB doing) didn't win him any favors either.

 

 

Haskins seems to be a sensitive subject where they've been some heated debates on the Haskins thread.  I don't see it that way, to me it's a clinical decision not an emotional one.  I don't look at him as a perfect untouchable prospect -- there is enough there IMO to give pause.   Also, I can see some who see his potential.  I want whatever Rivera wants here.  Yeah for my eyes Tua > Haskins.  But I'll ride with whatever they think.  I agree he's the big wildcard. 

 

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

It could be vastly worse. In early December we looked like we had no better than 5-15% odds of landing the 1.02 and all the options that came with it, now, nearly three months later we have a million options and none of them are bad, just varying degrees of wise to me. To be able to land the consensus #1 overall pick and best QB from the summer (and really the past two years) or the best edge rushing prospect in a decade, or trade back and get a giant pile of gold? As bad as I expected this past season to be, I just didn't expect us to be that fortunate, especially as late November/Early December evolved.  

 

 

 

Yeah I was pushing for losses at the end of the season among some other people here.  Some were put off by that and thought we were disloyal, etc.  But look at where we are now?  Imagine if we had the 6th pick for example versus the 2nd?  The draft season is a lot more fun and the possibilities much more enticing because we finished 3-13 -- in my book who cares about meaningless wins in a lost season?  But to each their own.  For me this set up is as good as it gets. 

[KDawg]

Just now, Poindexter said:

I like your thinking, but I would beg Josh McCown to come back for another year.  I even think bringing Nate Sudfeld back would be a great idea as well.

 

But like you stated...would be a huge mistake to bring in a QB who is drafted within the first 3 picks.

To be fair to my point, I don’t know that the mistake would be bringing in a top 3 QB (though, look, things are volatile. And passing on Young or a package of picks for a QB COULD be a mistake).

 

The mistake would be keeping Haskins around after you do it for a fake competition. 
 

Either Haskins is the QB or he’s not. You can’t play sophomoric games with him. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Anyone have a strong opinion on Motley?  Haven’t watched any film on him yet. 
 

 

 

[Poindexter]

I think everyone was pissed that we passed on Derwin James.  I really thought it was between Derwin and Edmunds.  But Payne is solid and he has a ton of upside as well.  This time around I don't think we pass on the best player on the board.

[HTTRDynasty]

Okudah (and Queen and Murray) showing everyone why Chase didn’t participate in this underwear Olympics. 

[Going Commando]

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

He was much more bunt than that.  It wasn't an opinion piece about what he thinks they should do.  He said that's what he heard Rivera has said and what he's thinking.  Now that could end up wrong or a smoke screen, etc. 

 

Being a good reporter/editorialist requires more than just running quotes that are obvious lies/nonsensical speculation.  I'd be embarrassed to print that quote/take.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[KDawg]

I don’t know if I can believe that or not, HTTR. Something about land wars in Asia and screens made of smoke and Lion season. Or is it lying season? I don’t even know anymore.

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Being a good reporter/editorialist requires more than just running quotes that are obvious lies/nonsensical speculation.  I'd be embarrassed to print that quote/take.

 

I'd presume he heard it from Tua's agent and likely out of context.   I know that newspaper very well from my work and i've talked to some of their reporters over the years including having multiple lunches with some of them.  Not the sports writers though.  I've been told before their stories-sources are vetted pretty well.  It's not a gossip newspaper.  It's the 2nd biggest newspaper in South Florida. 

 

My point is it might be untrue but i got little doubt that he heard it.  I doubt they gives a darn about the Redskins angle on this.  But they are obsessed with Tua down here. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

@volsmet have you heard of Kyle Dugger? 😀