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2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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On 12/31/2019 at 7:28 PM, Warhead36 said:

lolol you guys would make terrible negotiators, not asking anywhere near enough for #2. Look at what we gave up for RG3, THAT'S what it should take. If nobody offers that then fine, we get the best defensive prospect the league has seen in a generation.

 

If the Dolphins call, I'd want nothing short of all three of their 1sts this year. Even then I'm not sure I'd take it.

 

Nobody will give up what we did for Griff because Tua is a much riskier pick and nobody is giving up that much for a non-QB, even a player like Chase Young.   Since we won't get the haul that would be necessary to even consider passing on a player like this the trade back scenario is kind of a mute point. they will draft Young and we will all be happy that they did.  

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7 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

Nobody will give up what we did for Griff because Tua is a much riskier pick and nobody is giving up that much for a non-QB, even a player like Chase Young.   Since we won't get the haul that would be necessary to even consider passing on a player like this the trade back scenario is kind of a mute point. they will draft Young and we will all be happy that they did.  

Hey DG fan how you been buddy?

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Our Assistant OL Coach is coaching down at the East-West Shrine Bowl today. Hopefully he can sniff out a few gems among the players out there.

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No one will give the Skins what the Skins did to get Griffin because it was stupid then and it's hasn't gotten smarter with age. Dan was always trying to trade off first round pick for big names (Remember when he offered two first round picks for Chad Ocho 2 years before Ocho was out of the league?) and he finally made the deal so stupid that another team couldn't resist.

 

If you believe in the subjective value of the NFL Draft point values, a 2nd pick is worth 2600 points. Number 3 is worth 2200. Number 4, 1800. So since the top draft pick in the second round is worth 580, and any draft pick past number 3 is worth 1800 or less,  basically that means that getting any 1st round pick + any 2nd round pick, will leave the Skins on the short end of the stick. Since we can't fill all the holes in the draft and the Skins can't afford to put pro-bowl caliber players in all of those holes, it might be time for some creative thinking. Let's say. we offer our first round pick for anyone else's first and second, plus their next year's first. Obviously since the trade to the latter guys in the first is less valuable, the deeper you go in the draft for your trade partner, the more first year compensation you want returned up front, like an additional third round pick this year, and an additional 3rd round pick next year. Next year picks are generally valued at half price of this year since you can't guess next year's position with accuracy. At least this way you get more players capable of starting this year (generally players picked in the first 3 rounds) and you setup the team for more picks in the future. But the trade down looks better for the future. Keeping pick 2 improves one player on the DL and still doesn't do anything about the offense.

 

Then again, if you think Young is the next Lawrence Taylor or Reggie White, you stick with the pick. But those guys are rare.

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26 minutes ago, wildbill1952 said:

 

If you believe in the subjective value of the NFL Draft point values, a 2nd pick is worth 2600 points. Number 3 is worth 2200. Number 4, 1800. 

 

 

I struggle to really agree with these points systems because not every no. 2 pick is the same talent.  This year has arguably the best "talent" going no. 2.  This is also a top heavy first round that in other drafts you could see any of the top 10 being in the top 3.  Burrow, Young, Tua, Okudah, Simmons, Juedy, Thomas.. all could be a top 3 pick in most drafts.  The value of young, for all intents and purposes, could be equal to a no. 1 overall pick.  If Burrow falls to 2, you could argue that the value goes UP because more teams will get involved trying to move up.. where they may not have to get to no. 1. 

 

 

Doctson went in the 1st, Mclaurin in the 3rd... 

 

If you think hes the right guy... you go get him.  If a team believes Chase Young is the missing piece, hes more valuable than a team that needs a QB.. thus a team would be willing to give up more. 

Edited by OVCChairman

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Very good observation about the point system. It's more of a guideline than a flat out rule. And the point system, as you note, does not weigh the talent of the person at pick 2 vs the talent of the person available at pick 3 or pick 100 for that matter.

 

Although the Skins got a gold mine in Mclauren, and a possible gold mine in Haskins (JMHO while waiting to see), there are so many holes left on the OL and the secondary,  I doubt if adding an elite edge rusher is really going to make as big an impact as two or more players of lesser skill. Also JMHO.

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I asked this question months ago if people thought Young would have the same or very close to the same value as a Tua (at that time Tua was healthy).

 

It makes sense that if you agree Young is a generational player and being that you need a top 2 draft position to get him it raises the typical value of the 2nd draft slot above and beyond its normal point valuation, maybe not equal to the 1st pick since it will be a QB but somewhere in the ballpark.

 

I'm curious if Young is being looked at in this way.

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40 minutes ago, wildbill1952 said:

Very good observation about the point system. It's more of a guideline than a flat out rule. And the point system, as you note, does not weigh the talent of the person at pick 2 vs the talent of the person available at pick 3 or pick 100 for that matter.

 

Although the Skins got a gold mine in Mclauren, and a possible gold mine in Haskins (JMHO while waiting to see), there are so many holes left on the OL and the secondary,  I doubt if adding an elite edge rusher is really going to make as big an impact as two or more players of lesser skill. Also JMHO.

 

 

I agree to a point... but i do agree that you cant worry about adding multiple quality guys, vs adding a game changer.  If the game changer is there... ya gotta take him.  You have a better shot at finding quality guys later, or via other avenues.  There is a balance and the goal is the best 53 man roster you can field.  If we could trade back and end up with Simmons, i would be extatic.  If we stay put and take Young... you wont hear me saying it was the wrong move either... unless he proves its the wrong one later.

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Wild bill I disagree.

 

desperation breeds bad management decisions. There is always some desperate gm or coach in the nfl. Always a team to be fleeced in a mega trade. It happened recently with the Texans. If teams “learned” from our bad rg3 trade then we wouldn’t see such things happening every year. 
 

If we trade chase young we would easily get 2 first rounders and a 3rd. And that is just a starting point. There is precedent for “can’t miss” players at positions of need, even if they aren’t a qb. Even more so, seeing the way the 49ers have turned around with nick Bosa being a catalyst.

 

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Note: I’m not arguing against Young here. I am on record saying we need to take him at 2. So this isn’t meant in any way other than conversation...

 

How many game changers are there at defensive end in the NFL right now? Someone who helped to really change their teams fortune?

 

I count one. Nick Bosa. 
 

Mack, Miller, Shaq Barrett, TJ Watt, Chandler... they’re all studs. But their teams didn’t even make the playoffs. 
 

So what really is the value of an edge over another position? I mean obviously the answer is complicated, and I have my answer, but id love to see this discussed. 
 

short form of my response, and I’ll get to it later: the game changing position on your D largely depends on your entire personnel and not on position on defense. It’s also largely scheme dependent.
 

This takes me to Young. Who, once again, I advocate drafting because he’s a total stud and will change how offenses attack us fundamentally, and open lanes for other guys...

 

Is EDGE the spot that solidifies THIS defense?

Not sure but I think we’re going to find out.

 

Edited by KDawg
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56 minutes ago, wildbill1952 said:

I doubt if adding an elite edge rusher is really going to make as big an impact as two or more players of lesser skill. Also JMHO.


It really depends on your definition of lesser skill. We haven’t had an impact pash rusher in a long time. Having an elite edge rusher to actually scare qbs would do wonders for our defense. We’ve been doing the whole “If coverage is good I’m going to get close to putting pressure on the qb, then the qb gets away routine” for years.

 

but I have no problem with a chase young trade back if we can get an elite talent in the first and still have premium draft picks leftover.

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Note: I’m not arguing against Young here. I am on record saying we need to take him at 2. So this isn’t meant in any way other than conversation...

 

How many game changers are there at defensive end in the NFL right now? Someone who helped to really change their teams fortune?

 

I count one. Nick Bosa. 
 

Mack, Miller, Shaq Barrett, TJ Watt, Chandler... they’re all studs. But their teams didn’t even make the playoffs. 
 

So what really is the value of an edge over another position? I mean obviously the answer is complicated, and I have my answer, but id love to see this discussed. 
 

short form of my response, and I’ll get to it later: the game changing position on your D largely depends on your entire personnel and not on position on defense. It’s also largely scheme dependent.
 

This takes me to Young. Who, once again, I advocate drafting because he’s a total stud and will change how offenses attack us fundamentally, and open lanes for other guys...

 

Is EDGE the spot that solidifies THIS defense?

Not sure but I think we’re going to find out.

 

If you look over the past several years, defensive lineman and ends that can pressure qbs really do change their teams fortunes. 

 

von Miller was a big part of the broncos success. Jj watt singlehandedly kept the Texans relevant for years. The eagles defensive front really helped them in their super bowl run. The giants were carried twice by a strong defensive line. 
 

After qb, it is debatably the most important focus.

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11 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said:


It really depends on your definition of lesser skill. We haven’t had an impact pash rusher in a long time. Having an elite edge rusher to actually scare qbs would do wonders for our defense. We’ve been doing the whole “If coverage is good I’m going to get close to putting pressure on the qb, then the qb gets away routine” for years.

 

but I have no problem with a chase young trade back if we can get an elite talent in the first and still have premium draft picks leftover.

If you look over the past several years, defensive lineman and ends that can pressure qbs really do change their teams fortunes. 

 

von Miller was a big part of the broncos success. Jj watt singlehandedly kept the Texans relevant for years. The eagles defensive front really helped them in their super bowl run. The giants were carried twice by a strong defensive line. 
 

After qb, it is debatably the most important focus.


But...

 

What pass rushers are left? Is Preston Smith elite now? Or Z. Smith? I’d argue they’re both good. But neither are generational. But they both helped Green Bay.

 

Bosa showed up and the Niners turned around. Ford helped, too. And of course, Jimmy G May not be the best QB but he’s perfect for Shanahan’s offense. So there’s a check in the box for edge. 
 

The Titans and Chiefs have Landry and Jones, but they’re not exactly generational. 
 

So what makes a top flight edge so important? 
 

Note: I’m not saying edge isn’t important, I’m also not saying we couldn’t use a better player there. But is it necessary to have a top ten dude at the spot? Or does a good edge alone change the fortunes of a defense? 
 

I really don’t know. Football is complicated.

 

I’m currently of the mind that if you can an elite edge and draft pick cost and have a fifth year option, you do it. But I think MIKE is more important to almost any D. As well as a space eater inside. 
 

But regardless, I think football teams succeed and fail on the OL and DL, so getting those right is so important. So I see that side, too.

Edited by KDawg

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1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Note: I’m not saying edge isn’t important, I’m also not saying we couldn’t use a better player there. But is it necessary to have a top ten dude at the spot? Or does a good edge alone change the fortunes of a defense? 

So here's my take:

 

The best chance of success a pass defense can have is to throw off the QB's rhythm.  If you let them do what they want when they want to do it, you're dead meat with just about any NFL caliber QB.  

 

There are multiple ways you can accomplish this.  You can lock-down on the back end, and the receivers are covered when the QB is ready to throw the ball, which means he has to hang on to it, giving the rush longer to get home.

 

Or you can heat him up, making him get rid of the ball before he's ready to.

 

And in an ideal situation, both.

 

The best defenses FORCE the offense to adapt to them, and that gives the defense the advantage.

 

In this scenario, we are closer to having a dominant pass-rush than a dominant secondary.  Personally, I like the idea of pressuring the QB first, because if you have outstanding DL and front 7, you can handle 2 things at once: Pressure the QB AND stop the run.  

 

Do you absolutely HAVE to have elite talent to do either?  No.  But it helps.  And if you have a J. Pepper (in his prime) or Von Miller, then the offense HAS to account for those guys on every play, and that opens up things for everybody else.  Hell, Joe Gibbs essentially created an entire offense just because he had to figure out how to block LT twice a year.  Nobody ran 1 back sets in the early 1980's.  Everybody was 2 backs, and Joe had to figure out something else.

 

So, if you take a Chase Young, and he is Von Miller, then that immediately means you have drawn attention from the offense away from the opposite (Sweat/Kerrigan), probably forced a TE or RB to help , which makes them less of a weapon, etc.

 

Is it just as good to have a complete lock-down secondary? Sure.  But I think that's harder to do.  

 

And if you had to pick 1, I think it's best to have as ferocious a pass rush as you can get and be as disruptive as you can be.  

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I love polite discourse. Thank you all.

 

You have to back to the 90's to find when the sack leader was also a Super Bowl winner. Although Young may be the best Edge Rusher in 20 years, as we saw in the Clemson game, a good OL can negate the effects of an edge rusher. I'm not saying he does no good. I'm just saying that, speaking in relative worth of players on a 10 point system, if Young is a 10, that two 8's or maybe even two 7's will help the team more. You've got at least a 7 in Sweat. Is increasing that position to a 10 going to help as much as taking one of the 3/4 OL or 3/4 secondary and upgrading both positions to a 7 or 8?

 

Like all of you I believe Young is a special player and if for no other reason I'd take him and risk him being a bust over the risk of the Giants getting him and have another Lawrence Taylor in the stable.  Something important to me, if no one else, is he's from the area, which means he may be there for 10 years and be a real plus to the community.

 

But all of those considerations aside, my point is the Skins get more bang for the buck, and a better overall team getting two quality players (minimum) over putting all the eggs in the Darren Young basket. I will not be upset if the Skins take Young with the second pick. But I might be more excited if a saw a new OL and a new guy in the secondary being picked in the first two rounds.

Edited by wildbill1952
second pick vs second round
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There is a reason why after QB, the next position that's getting crazy as for pay is edge rush.    The top guys are getting paid 20 million plus a season.

 

Denver won a SB in part because they had a killer D line with a killer pass rusher in the mix.  Peyton was "meh" that season.    The two teams that were a handful for the Pats in the SB were the NY Giants and Eagles, both with killer D lines at the time.  The Eagles killer D lineman in the mix grated is a DT. 

 

I do think though you need both.  To me a shutdown corner is the next most important position on defense.  Part of the reason why I value a pass rusher over a corner is I think the two positions are linked.  A great pass rusher helps the secondary.   I don't think its an accident that Sherman is the top ranked corner in the league this year according to PFF when just a season or two ago people wondered if he lost a peg off his game. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/08/01/the-value-of-a-sack-and-why-pass-rusher-is-the-nfls-second-most-important-position/

The value of a sack, and why pass rusher is the NFL’s second-most important position

 

The lesson here: It is more critical than ever for an NFL franchise to build an effective pass rush.

 

“If the most important person on the field is the quarterback, the second-most important person must be the guy who gets to the quarterback,” said Chuck Smith, a former all-pro defensive end and founder of Chuck Smith Training Systems, where he has consulted with and coached some of the best pass rushers in the NFL, including Von Miller, Vic Beasley and Aaron Donald. “You want to hit the quarterback as much as you can because that changes the dynamics of the game.”

And that type of game changer doesn’t come cheap. Among the 25 highest contracts being paid to NFL players, 10 are quarterbacks and nine are pass-rushing specialists, including Miller, J.J. Watt, Fletcher Cox and Olivier Vernon, each of whom average more than $17 million per season. But the return on investment is substantial because, put simply, sacks kill drives.

According to Football Outsiders, slightly more than 70 percent of four-down series converted for a first down or a touchdown in 2016. However, just one out of every six offensive drives (16 percent) in which the quarterback was sacked eventually got another set of downs, making it easy to see how much of a momentum killer a quarterback sack can be.

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Overall, a sack saves a team 1.75 points each time a defender gets to the quarterback, but it is important to note not all sacks are created equal. A sack on fourth and 5, for example, is inherently more valuable than a sack on first and 10. According to the expected number of points scored given a combination of down, distance and yard line, a sack in the first instance saves a team almost three points (2.83) on average, while a sack in the second scenario saves less than two points (1.65).

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Field position matters, too, with sacks in the red zone (inside the opponent’s 20-yard line) and at midfield worth more than sacks occurring in other segments of the field.

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Yet sacks are only part of the equation — quarterback pressure in the form of hits and hurries also produces tangible results. According to the game charters at Pro Football Focus, pressure reduced the overall league passer rating from 99.3 to 64.6 last season, and even a veteran quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers felt the aftereffects of a sack. The two-time NFL MVP had a league-high 93.8 passer rating under pressure last season, but produced a rating of just 45.5 on plays following a sack in 2016. That’s bad enough to say the team would almost have been better off if Rodgers just threw the very next ball away for an incomplete pass (doing so produces a 39.6 rating).

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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16 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

The best defenses FORCE the offense to adapt to them, and that gives the defense the advantage.

 

 

There is also a counter argument to consider. The best offenses neutralize your strength and play to your weaknesses. Double up on Chase and throw a quick hitting pass and you eat up our current  secondary/LB coverage core  ALL DAY LONG.  Although the "generational" talent made an impact, he doesn't necessarily affect the outcome. 

Now compare that to option B. Where we left our "Very good" D-line is left intact, but were able to flip that pick into a 1st round LB (Simmons) PLUS a 1st round CB, Plus a 2nd round OL/TE.  Now suddenly the opposition has less of a weakness to attack. I feel that both sides have merit

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Our D line IMO is missing something.  I like quoting Bill Polian who talked about our D line last year saying it's not the type you worry about on third down.  In other words, when you need to lock it down on obvious passing downs, you can do it.  It's hard for me to say we have a really good D line when we got the worst third down defense in the league.  They've gotten a bunch of sacks in some games like the Miami one.  But do we really feel hey its 3rd and 8, watch Kerrigan take off or whomever.  i like Sweat's potential.  But I do think this D line needs a jolt which I think will improve the play of everyone including the secondary. 

.
PFF isn't the be all and end all.  They have flaws in their methodology because it's not easy to isolate certain variables in football or where they can know each respective player's assignment on each play.  But they usually aren't a mile off either.    As you can see there are a lot of players ranked above ours both as to edge passer and D tackle. 

 

 

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Edited by Skinsinparadise
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12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Our D line IMO is missing something.  I like quoting Bill Polian who talked about our D line last year saying it's not the type you worry about on third down.  In other words, when you need to lock it down on obvious passing downs, you can do it.  It's hard for me to say we have a really good D line when we got the worst third down defense in the league.  They've gotten a bunch of sacks in some games like the Miami one.  But do we really feel hey its 3rd and 8, watch Kerrigan take off or whomever.  i like Sweat's potential.  But I do think this D line needs a jolt which I think will improve the play of everyone including the secondary. 

.
PFF isn't the be all and end all.  They have flaws in their methodology because it's not easy to isolate certain variables in football or where they can know each respective player's assignment on each play.  But they usually aren't a mile off either.    As you can see there are a lot of players ranked above ours both as to edge passer and D tackle. 

 

 

Our D line has struggled, i agree completely, but i cant take the last 3 years as a true measuring stick because theyve been asked to play a way that does not allow them to flourish, or even rush the passer with any consistency.  Our down lineman were asked, a lot of the time, to open holes for LBs to fill.  The big boys in the middle were not positioned to go after the QB.  

 

I would be willing to bet that our sack totals go up greatly, just by moving Kerrigan and Sweat to End and allowing them to work the edges.  I firmly believe that our scheme and philosophy alone are going to dramatically change what we think of our current d line.  

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Give me the dominant EDGE player over any position other than QB.   They ruin the opposing offense’s game plan more than any other position. A dominant DL is the key to defensive success in this league. 
 


 

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But that’s not answering the question.

 

As I alluded to, a dominant edge is NOT the end all be all of defensive dominance. Is Landry or Jones a dominant edge for Ten/KC? We can’t call Preston Smith a dominant edge, can we? Half our fan base thought he was a schlub. 
 

TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Chandler Jones, Joey Bosa... those boys are dominant edges. DeMarcus Lawrence is a dominant edge. 
 

None of them were even in the playoffs. 
 

So is it the edge himself that makes the biggest difference? Or the scheme and surrounding players that do it?

 

I think I’m going to break this off in its own thread. I think it’s a quality football discussion and it shouldn’t clutter up this bad boy.

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10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

But that’s not answering the question.

 

As I alluded to, a dominant edge is NOT the end all be all of defensive dominance. Is Landry or Jones a dominant edge for Ten/KC? We can’t call Preston Smith a dominant edge, can we? Half our fan base thought he was a schlub. 
 

TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Chandler Jones, Joey Bosa... those boys are dominant edges. DeMarcus Lawrence is a dominant edge. 
 

None of them were even in the playoffs. 
 

So is it the edge himself that makes the biggest difference? Or the scheme and surrounding players that do it?

 

I think I’m going to break this off in its own thread. I think it’s a quality football discussion and it shouldn’t clutter up this bad boy.

 

It takes an entire team.  That's always going to be the case when there are 22 players on the field at any given time.  But a truly dominant EDGE covers for a lot of flaws on a defense and has the single greatest impact a defensive position can have IMO.

 

EDIT: When you have Duck Hodges, Mitch Tribustky, a washed up Rivers (3rd highest interception percentage), and a bunch of rookies as your QB, you're likely not going to make the playoffs.  There's very little a dominant EDGE can do with a terrible QB.  Btw, DeMarcus Lawrence hasn't been dominant since he got paid.

Edited by HTTRDynasty

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15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

But that’s not answering the question.

 

As I alluded to, a dominant edge is NOT the end all be all of defensive dominance. Is Landry or Jones a dominant edge for Ten/KC? We can’t call Preston Smith a dominant edge, can we? Half our fan base thought he was a schlub. 
 

TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Chandler Jones, Joey Bosa... those boys are dominant edges. DeMarcus Lawrence is a dominant edge. 
 

None of them were even in the playoffs. 
 

So is it the edge himself that makes the biggest difference? Or the scheme and surrounding players that do it?

 

I think I’m going to break this off in its own thread. I think it’s a quality football discussion and it shouldn’t clutter up this bad boy.

Frank Clark has been close to dominate.As for the Titans they just good players all over that defense but Casey is an absolute monster.

Edited by Ghedrick

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