Starting QB 2019???

[kingdaddy]

On 2/4/2019 at 6:36 PM, Malapropismic Depository said:

Please, NO to K Murray

If we take Murray and he doesn't play football it would ruin this franchise and become the laughingstock of the league, if we're not already. That being said, I think Murray would have to try being an NFL QB....I just don't think we can take that risk. 

[RandyHolt]

Let the Giants take Murray. He can take carries from Barkley.

 

LOL Jones makes Eli look like the life of the party.  Post of the day.

[Jericho]

On the veteran side you have these options:

 

Bridgewater, Flacco, Tannehill, Taylor, Keenum, Bortles, and Foles for sure. Possibly Eli Manning or Andy Dalton.

 

On the rookie side you have:

 

Haskins, Murray, Lock, and Daniel Jones as the perceived best options.

 

But who's most in the market for a QB? The Giants probably, but that could push Manning into the market. Miami, assuming they don't just tank completely. Cincy could, but that likely makes Dalton available. Jacksonville. Denver. And that might be it? They are definitely teams who might make some move (Oakland? Arizona?) or could use a young developmental pick (New England, Pitt, LA Chargers, etc...), but there seem to be very few open starting spots. Seems like the Skins can wait for the musical chairs to stop and see what's left at a reasonable rate.

[RandyHolt]

No one should trade for a FTagged Foles. Stick it and him to Philly!

[HigSkin]

We're screwed....I predict it's going to be Colt McCoy and some cheap backup like Josh Johnson and probably not a top rated QB in the draft so I'm thinking like a Finley or Thorson in the 3rd for development.

 

Listening to "moving the chains" this evening with Pat K and John Clayton, they just don't see that's it possible to sign any of the more talented vet QB's due to be released or traded.  They say the only option is to go to the draft.  Alex Smith's due $15 mil guaranteed this year and then $16 mil injury guarantee in 2020.  I thought those numbers sounded low but this article confirms it.

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/12/8/18131998/trying-to-understand-the-alex-smith-contract-and-impact-on-salary-cap

 

The Redskins fully guaranteed Smith $55 million upon signing, including a rather large $27 million signing bonus. All told Washington paid $40 million of that guarantee in the first year of the contract. The $15 million that remains will be paid in 2019. This money is a sunk cost for the Redskins (for the most part,more on that in a minute) and there is no way to avoid the payments.

 

Smith’s 2020 $16 million salary is guaranteed for injury at the moment. An injury guarantee means that if a player’s contract is terminated while he is injured his injury protection kicks in and he earns his salary if hurt. The condition to collect on the guarantee is that Smith would not be able to pass a physical in 2020. So obviously that is a long time for Smith to recover from his injury.

 

Alex Smith’s] $16 million injury guarantee vests on the 5^th day of the 2019 league year.

If Washington cuts Smith before that vesting date they do have the ability to escape that $16 million guarantee depending on how Smith’s recovery goes. But the situation gets more complicated when we look at the salary cap implications of cutting Smith.

Smith’s current salary cap number in 2019 is $20.4 million. If he was cut that number would increase by at least $17.7 million, which is the remaining portion of his unaccounted for signing bonus, leaving the Redskins with a $36.6 million dead money charge.

Since Smith would be released with a failed physical termination in March, I believe [the Redskins] should also have to account for an additional $16 million on the cap, regardless of whether ... the injury guarantee is actually paid in 2020 or not. If that is the case in brings the dead money to a ridiculous $52.6 million.

Regardless of whether I’m incorrect on the acceleration of the guarantee, [neither] $36.6 million [n]or $52.6 million is ... feasible for Washington. The team has just $19 million in projected cap room for next year. Take off $17 million for Smith and they have nothing to spend. Add in the extra $16 million on top of that and they are in the worst position of any team in the NFL.

[Est.1974]

Smith is just a sunk cost/cap space number at this stage. 20mil this year, 21mil next.

 

The insurance will offset most of the remaining dead cap after 2020, by which point the league will be neck deep in trouble sorting a new CBA out anyway.

[Renegade7]

5 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Smith is just a sunk cost/cap space number at this stage. 20mil this year, 21mil next.

 

The insurance will offset most of the remaining dead cap after 2020, by which point the league will be neck deep in trouble sorting a new CBA out anyway.

 

Curious, how much will the insurance offset if we cut him after this march?  My understanding is doing so will split the remaining guaranteed money as dead cap over 2019 and 2020 and then we are done with it.

[Malapropismic Depository]

Keim is saying the most likely veteran will be Bridgewater

[Cooleyfan1993]

Just checked the San Diego fleet roster and Josh Johnson’s not on it. I’m guessing the redskins aren’t letting him go back to the AAF this offseason? 

[Skinsinparadise]

Washington takes former Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray with the ninth pick in Mike Renner’s latest mock draft

BY DANIEL RYMER • WASHINGTON REDSKINS • ALEX SMITH • FEB 7, 2019Dec 29, 2018; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray (1) scrambles in the 2018 Orange Bowl college football playoff semifinal game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

As their 7-9 record suggests, the Washington Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack team in 2018. Led by Alex Smith, the Redskins started off the season at 5-2 before ultimately losing Smith to injury and falling out of the playoff race. At this point, Smith’s broken leg is considered career-threatening, and Washington will have to consider other options in either the draft or free agency.

 

Alex Smith finished this past season with an overall grade of 70.2, which tied for 24th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. Although it’s not terribly bad, Smith’s grade still ranks in the bottom-half of quarterbacks, and the Redskins surely have hopes of not being a bottom-half team in 2019. Throughout Smith’s entire career, he’s always had the label of being a game-manager who doesn’t really test defenses down the field (outside of one freakish year in Andy Reid’s offense in 2017). That label proved true once again for Smith last season, as his average depth of throw was only 8.6 yards, which was the 18th-lowest in the NFL. With that said, Smith does do a good job of not turning the ball over, but it usually comes at the expense of scoring more points.

 

In a league where passing the ball around and racking up the points is as important as ever, the Redskins might want to take a look at the electric Kyler Murray out of Oklahoma, something Senior Analyst Mike Renner had them doing in his most recent mock draft. Murray has the talent to transform a conservative offense into one that aggressively puts up points. With an overall grade of 94.6 last season, Murray led all college quarterbacks in the country. His passing grade of 93.7 ranked first overall, and his rushing grade of 84.4 ranked second. Murray displayed top-notch accuracy, as his 78.9 adjusted completion percentage was tied for fourth in the nation.

 

...Murray also proved he can make the difficult throws that are required to be successful at the NFL level. He produced big-time throws with the best of them last season, as his big-time throw percentage of 7.7% was tied for eighth in the country out of 138 qualifying quarterbacks. Perhaps even more impressive is that he had a turnover-worthy play percentage of just 2.4%, tied for 22nd. By virtually every metric there is, Murray ranks among the elite, including running the football.

 

...There’s nothing that Murray can’t do. He can make all the throws in all different kinds of situations. He can also evade pass rushers and make people miss in the open field. Of course, he may be overlooked because of his 5-foot-10 stature, but he is a phenomenal talent, and he could be the Redskins’ very own Baker Mayfield or Patrick Mahomes; he can give hope and bring change to a team that needs one at the quarterback position. Last season, the Redskins often looked like they were one play-making quarterback away from taking that extra step towards the playoffs – Kyler Murray can be that quarterback.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-washington-takes-former-oklahoma-qb-kyler-murray-with-the-9th-pick-in-mike-renners-latest-mock-draft

[Stone Cold]

Let’s take stidham and give him the keys soon as he’s ready or colt gets injured.  

 

Then...we ride with stidham until 2022...at which point we have either found our qb, or are perhaps in position to take TLawrence.  

 

 

[Stadium-Armory]

I think it will be Colt or Johnson starting, then giving way to a rookie later in the year. A rookie contract is much easier to swallow than a vet. 

 

Vets like Tanneyhill, Bridgewater and Flocco will command 16 - 18 million +. 

 

But a rookie signal caller like last year's 10th pick, Josh Rosen, will count far less against the cap. Rosen's 2018 number was $3.2M ($480,000 base salary plus a pro rated portion of the signing bonus). 

 

I think there's much more upside to this strategy. It's cheaper. Plus it forces you to take a chance on a rookie QB instead of kicking the can down the road with a vet. 

 

Too bad this year's QB class isn't what last year's was, or next years is. Of course that's how the cookie crumbles for the Redskins.

 

I believe that this is what Bruce will do and it explains why he is being so coy when asked about the QB situation for 2019. He doesn't want to tip his hand. We will draft a QB.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Stone Cold said:

Let’s take stidham and give him the keys soon as he’s ready or colt gets injured.  

 

Then...we ride with stidham until 2022...at which point we have either found our qb, or are perhaps in position to take TLawrence.  

 

 

 

Unless he has some crazy downturn or really bad injury I see no way that Lawrence stays for his senior year, so he'll be in the 2021 draft after his junior season.

 

With regard to Murray, how much do you all think it would affect his stock if he comes in at closer to 5'8 than 5'10? 5'10 is already really short for a QB prospect, especially in the 1st round...5'8 would be unheard of. 

 

That would basically make him about the same size as Chris Thompson.

[wit33]

7 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Unless he has some crazy downturn or really bad injury I see no way that Lawrence stays for his senior year, so he'll be in the 2021 draft after his junior season.

 

With regard to Murray, how much do you all think it would affect his stock if he comes in at closer to 5'8 than 5'10? 5'10 is already really short for a QB prospect, especially in the 1st round...5'8 would be unheard of. 

 

That would basically make him about the same size as Chris Thompson.

 

Id imagine no QB under 6 foot has been drafted in first round. Vick? 

 

It’s fascinating to me with the Murray type, because I can see the an old school coach being able to return to smash mouth football for today’s NFL. For example, why wouldn’t a Tom Coughlin type not get Murray and pound the rock with a dual threat QB. My guess is he’s most likely too romantic with what he’s comfortable with, but makes all the sense in the world to me. 

[Anselmheifer]

7 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

Id imagine no QB under 6 foot has been drafted in first round. Vick? 

 

It’s fascinating to me with the Murray type, because I can see the an old school coach being able to return to smash mouth football for today’s NFL. For example, why wouldn’t a Tom Coughlin type not get Murray and pound the rock with a dual threat QB. My guess is he’s most likely too romantic with what he’s comfortable with, but makes all the sense in the world to me. 

I don't think I'd run a lot of called runs for Murray. His frame is so slight. He's going to get a lot of yardage on scrambles though. Teams will have to play zone coverage against him. 

[Snagletooth]

Has Murray even taken a snap from under center?  Would you want him  under center?   Having him turn his back to the defense in play action seems risky at his size.  Do you completely dump the traditional playbook?

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't think I'd run a lot of called runs for Murray. His frame is so slight. He's going to get a lot of yardage on scrambles though. Teams will have to play zone coverage against him. 

 

I wonder if someday scouts measure/rate a  dual threat QBs ability to avoid hits? An evolution in scouting must take place for this type of QB. I can envision young kids doing skill workouts around avoiding hits growing up. 

 

The NFL 10 years from now may only two hand touch to QBs. Joking of course, buuut 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Snagletooth said:

Has Murray even taken a snap from under center?  Would you want him  under center?   Having him turn his back to the defense in play action seems risky at his size.  Do you completely dump the traditional playbook?

 

Don't know but doubt it.  He wouldn't be the only college QB not taking snaps from center.  Spread offenses is typically run out of shot gun.  For someone of Murray's stature, you just about have to run the offense out of shot gun.  If I recall Jay's offense is give or take 70% or so out of shot gun now.

 

No doubt they'd have to change the offense to fit Murray's skills.  But this was an anemic offense last year at least as to the passing game.    So its not like we are throwing out the window a passing game that thrived.  I'd take Murray in a spread offense over Colt running Jay's system any day of the week.  And that's not a shot at Jay -- that's a shot at the Qb and receiving corp.

[mistertim]

13 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

Id imagine no QB under 6 foot has been drafted in first round. Vick? 

 

It’s fascinating to me with the Murray type, because I can see the an old school coach being able to return to smash mouth football for today’s NFL. For example, why wouldn’t a Tom Coughlin type not get Murray and pound the rock with a dual threat QB. My guess is he’s most likely too romantic with what he’s comfortable with, but makes all the sense in the world to me. 

 

Vick is 6'. From what I can find that's what he came in at during the combine. Brees is the same height though he was the 1st pick of the 2nd round even though he was picked at 32 overall. Picking a 5'10 QB (assuming he actually is that tall and there are questions about that) in the top 15, or even top 10 if we moved up, would be unheard of. 

 

How many truly successful pro QBs have been under 6'? Yes, Wilson is 5'11 and a top QB but he's basically the only one. Flutie is 5'10 but barely even got drafted and was a completely mediocre NFL QB; he's mostly famous for the fact that he played in the NFL at all at his size. 

 

The short NFL QBs who are great are unicorns. They have the uncanny knack of being able to see passing lanes through their line and make it work though with Wilson some of it also has to do with his success throwing outside of the pocket. But those guys are still between 5'11 and 6'1 or so. Murray is listed as 5'11 by Google and Oklahoma Baseball, 5'10 by Oklahoma Football, but there are rumors that he's actually 5'9. 

 

This seems like borderline blasphemy but I wouldn't exactly be shocked if Murray falls way more than people think in the draft. He's an electric guy to watch but there are just too many things about him that worry me, and it isn't all his height. I've mentioned them here before. 

 

[RandyHolt]

We hear all the QB experts talking about how manning and brady work tirelessly on their mechanics and footwork... lost in all that is the benefit of having a  QB that can sidearm it around a 6'6 Calais jumping up to bat balls all day long. Improvised throws.... seems extremely frowned upon and I am not 100% sure why.  I am enamored with a QB that can throw a football 10 different ways. We even see Mahomes throwing left handed. Long time NFL QB purists heads must be exploding watching him.  Yeah i am envious of KC and Mahomes. 

 

That all said a QB under 6 foot needs to be able to improvise throws sidearm etc, and since they are all mobile, they HAVE to be able to accurately throw on the run.  A big fat no to Murray if he cannot do those things. Throwing over the shoulder over the top of the DL  won't always work and you cannot let that kill your offense.

[wit33]

@mistertim

 

Its interesting battle of valuing what history tells us and where game is headed, in regards to the QB position. It seems the prototype is beginning to shift (slightly) into coaches being more open minded to idea of building offenses around the dual threat smaller QBs. Versus in past, guys being forced to learn offenses that didn’t suit there skill set or measurables. 

 

Doug Flutie types (most didn’t get chances— Tommy Franzier, Crouch, Charlie Ward types) we’re forced to comply in offenses there respective coaches were comfortable with. It seems coaches are being held more accountable to tailor schemes to talent on roster. It’s not totally there, but often with most change, it takes time, as the old heads will remain romantic with what they’re comfortable with. 

 

The one piece that’s tough debate is the injury risk of this kind of player. An evolution must take place in training these to develop skills to better avoid hits, simarly to that of a pocket passer who manipulates the pocket, has a quick release, or gets rid of the football quickly to survive the down.

 

—An example could’ve been RG3 being downgraded during his draft process due to his inability to slide and avoid hits at times in college. The opposite would be true for a Russel Wilson, who displayed skills to avoid hits and use the “baseball” skillfully to avoid big hits. 

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

We hear all the QB experts talking about how manning and brady work tirelessly on their mechanics and footwork... lost in all that is the benefit of having a  QB that can sidearm it around a 6'6 Calais jumping up the bat balls all day long. Improvised throws.... seems extremely frowned upon and I am not 100% sure why.  I am enamored with a QB that can throw a football 10 different ways. We even see Mahomes throwing left handed. Long time NFL QB purists heads must be exploding watching him.  Yeah i am envious of KC and Mahomes. 

 

That all said a QB under 6 foot needs to be able to improvise throws sidearm etc, and since they are all mobile, they HAVE to be able to accurately throw on the run.  A big fat no to Murray if he cannot do those things. Throwing over the shoulder over the top of the DL  won't always work and you cannot let that kill your offense.

 

My take is it isn't so much about not liking improvised throws or even "unorthodox" mechanics; it's about general consistency in mechanics, smoothness, and how quick the release is. From what I've read the biggest factor in overall accuracy for a QB is how consistent their mechanics is, not how traditionally "correct" it is. Aaron Rodgers doesn't really have what you'd call "classic flawless QB mechanics"; his passing mechanics are very unique. However if you watch him, it's extremely consistent, smooth, and quick.

 

Every QB is going to differ in some ways. Per your above two examples, if you watch Peyton he has those super active feet that bounce all over. Then you watch Brady and he has much quieter and more deliberate feet. Some scouts like guys with really active feet, some really like quiet and efficient feet. But regardless of their differences they both have super consistent mechanics overall. When Mahomes came out some people dinged his mechanics but from what I saw that was mostly because it was a little "unorthodox", not because it was inconsistent. He actually reminds me of Rodgers there a bit...unique mechanics but consistent, quick, and gets tons of upper leg/hip/core torque with seemingly minimal effort.

 

Weird angle throws are going to happen but are generally the exception. Every QB will sidearm it once in a while in certain situations but that's going to be pretty rare on average. Yeah Mahomes threw it left handed...but he did that once from what I remember (doesn't make it unimpressive, just not that relevant to the overall picture of hundreds of passes).

[OVCChairman]

On 2/9/2019 at 12:04 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Don't know but doubt it.  He wouldn't be the only college QB not taking snaps from center.  Spread offenses is typically run out of shot gun.  For someone of Murray's stature, you just about have to run the offense out of shot gun.  If I recall Jay's offense is give or take 70% or so out of shot gun now.

 

No doubt they'd have to change the offense to fit Murray's skills.  But this was an anemic offense last year at least as to the passing game.    So its not like we are throwing out the window a passing game that thrived.  I'd take Murray in a spread offense over Colt running Jay's system any day of the week.  And that's not a shot at Jay -- that's a shot at the Qb and receiving corp.

 

If Jay was willing to take last years playbook and burn it... Then sit down with O'Connell and say "help me get the most out of this guy."  I'd be A LOT more comfortable with us taking him at 15.  I will say very little of Jay's offense is done from under center, so I GUESS that would ease things for Murray.  I just don't think our offense has enough pace to actually use Murray.  I just don't see Murray being effective in 2018 Redskins offense the way it was designed, schemed, or called.  

 

That adds to the question.  Is Jay capable of doing that?  I have my doubts that he's got the flexibility based on what i've seen over the last couple years.  The offense has changed in aspects from year to year, but outside of the 16 season... I haven't seen us get the most out of the tools we had by adjusting the offense to the talent.  We've seen some effectiveness of players simply making plays (ahem... Adrian Peterson) but he's a round peg and we've at times tried to stick him in a square hole.   Same thing with Alex, and at times Colt.  

[Skinsinparadise]

This offseason, Allen repeatedly said he thinks the Redskins are close to competing at the highest levels of the NFL. Jay Gruden made similar remarks when the season ended....

 

If the team truly believes they are close, they're not going to consider the nuclear option. And if they're not going to cut Smith, that means he will be making a return in 2020, at least contractually. 

 

It might seem a tall order, but Smith keeps himself in incredible shape. In another 18 months, could he be close to a return to football? Maybe, maybe not, but if the Redskins have to pay him another $20 million anyway, why not wait to find out?

 

And it's with that thought in mind that brings the next one: Washington might not have any interest in an early round quarterback in the NFL Draft. 

Think about it. 

 

If the Redskins are going to hold out hope for a Smith return, or at least delay the cap hit, does it make sense to invest a first-round pick in a quarterback? Add in the fact that Colt McCoy is under contract for 2019, and up and down the Redskins organization, folks have supported McCoy as a possible QB1. 

 

In a recent MMQB article, Jonathan Jones makes that exact case. From Jones:

Washington is in an incredibly difficult position. Alex Smith suffered a gruesome leg injury in the first year of his $96 million contract with the team and then suffered complications from surgery. It’s possible he doesn’t see the field until 2020. And in this thorough OverTheCap article, it’s difficult to find an out for Washington. Jay Gruden really, really likes Colt McCoy, and I envision he’ll get a chance to win the starting job in camp. And because Smith’s future is unclear, you probably don’t want to spend a high draft pick on a quarterback this year.

 

Jones concludes that the best move for the Redskins is signing a veteran free agent to compete with McCoy, or even be his backup. Considering the money owed to Smith, the Redskins can't spend much in free agency, which means Washington is probably shopping in the Ryan Fitzpatrick aisle. 

This line of thinking would not preclude the Redskins from still drafting a QB, but it wouldn't come until at least the second or third day. 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/new-qb-theory-emerges-redskins-and-some-fans-might-not-it

[RandyHolt]

The best thing is to tank this year (that is code for use McCoy and JJ/Hackenberg), and then take the best QB available in 20X2 to backup Alex Smith. 

 

All it requires is Dan and Bruce to realize a step back may provide an easy and logical step forward.  They could swallow that pill knowing tickets sales will be fine since out of towners will buy up all the tickets. All aided by further shrinking of the stadium to get some sellouts. So finances will remain strong, and as long as Jay keeps praising McCoy, why do anything else but roll him going forward.  Draft a top QB after our 4 win 2019, which creates the buzz around the team that neither Dan nor Bruce could ever provide beyond their wildest marketing gimmicks.

 

From a cap perspective alone it has to be really dumb to ink yet another vet QB with Smith stuck on our books. I am not sure Bruce realizes that his chance of making the bowl will be severely impeded by our cap situation.

 

@OVCChairman I agree Murray would be a horrible fit in Jay's slow play offense.