What is Wrong with Alex Smith?

[TD_washingtonredskins]

20 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

You don't sign a 35 year old QB to a $111 million contract to "take time". You do that to "win now". That is all we heard in the offseason, and about how much better Alex was.

 

The worst part is that for Smith, he's not even playing bad. He's playing slightly above his 5 years with KC.

 

Well, you are talking as though I'm defending the move. I'm not necessarily. But, whatever the Redskins expected to happen doesn't really matter. He's here and he's likely the starter for 2-3 years. 

 

What I'm contending is that we may still see improvement because there's a track record for QBs improving within Gruden's offense. Nothing is a perfect comparison because players had different supporting casts and played under Gruden at different stages of their careers...but my hope is that we see the passing game ascend a bit over time. 

[crabbypatty]

1 hour ago, NikeRedskin7 said:

 

Well, let's not act like we've had a difficult schedule starting out.  Our schedule thus far has been soft and favorable.  If Cousins were our QB, I believe we would be 6-1.  I believe we would have given the Saints a better fight.  With Cousins we always have a chance to win even coming from behind.  With Smith, we better be leading the game, ALL game because he is not good enough to bring us back from a sizable deficit.

 

yeah, i don't think so. The schedule this team had to start the season, even including this week was pretty tough.

Arizona, Indy, NYG "easy" teams, and GB, Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans Dallas.. Those are really good teams (Dallas is decent, but always give us trouble)

Take that vs the vikings first 8 games of the season:

SF, Buffalo, Arizona, and NYJ.. their "easy" games GB, Rams, Philly and New Orleans.. the tougher games. Yet for having the superior team, with superior passing numbers, the vikings are 4-3-1, while Smith and the redskins are 5-2 (hopefully 6-2 after sunday)

 

I do agree that Smith isn't good enough to bring us back from behind, but I don't think the vikings had any tougher schedule than we did thus far.

 

*eta

So you're saying with Cousins we'd be 6-1.. vs the 5-2 we are now? not a whole lot of difference there. Yes it's better, but not the difference between going 6-10 and 10-6.

 

[Llevron]

Regardless of how he is currently playing, I'm certainly hoping for the best as we have a legit chance at the dance if he ever gets his head out of his ass. 

 

Whatever the problem, Alex, the WRs the general "newness" on the O.....I hope Gruden shows his worth the rest of the way. If he can be that dude we hired him to be and get Alex going we can do something. 

 

Big if tho

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Well, you are talking as though I'm defending the move. I'm not necessarily. But, whatever the Redskins expected to happen doesn't really matter. He's here and he's likely the starter for 2-3 years. 

 

What I'm contending is that we may still see improvement because there's a track record for QBs improving within Gruden's offense. Nothing is a perfect comparison because players had different supporting casts and played under Gruden at different stages of their careers...but my hope is that we see the passing game ascend a bit over time. 

 

I think the Gruden aspect might be underrated here.   I get into some feisty discussions on the matter when people (not you) try to sell he's played well though they do it more implicitly by saying we are winning in large part because of him -- I think that's wild but to each their own on that front.  But I do think that Gruden's dissatisfaction and Alex's too -- I think can bring some solutions.  i don't see this as hopeless where we've seen the ceiling.  I think we will get improvement. 

[Morneblade]

5 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Well, you are talking as though I'm defending the move. I'm not necessarily. But, whatever the Redskins expected to happen doesn't really matter. He's here and he's likely the starter for 2-3 years. 

 

What I'm contending is that we may still see improvement because there's a track record for QBs improving within Gruden's offense. Nothing is a perfect comparison because players had different supporting casts and played under Gruden at different stages of their careers...but my hope is that we see the passing game ascend a bit over time. 

 

Ok, then what is the timetable for him to get better? How much better do you think he will get? Why is he actually regressing as opposed to getting better?

 

And the biggest one. Is he actually playing bad at all for Alex Smith? And I'm very aware that with the cap hit, we're stuck with him for 3 years at a minimum.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

6 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Ok, then what is the timetable for him to get better? How much better do you think he will get? Why is he actually regressing as opposed to getting better?

 

And the biggest one. Is he actually playing bad at all for Alex Smith? And I'm very aware that with the cap hit, we're stuck with him for 3 years at a minimum.

 

I don't know the answers to any of those questions. I know that our passing game and scoring offense improved dramatically between 2014 and 2015. I also know that Cousins himself went from posting numbers significantly worse than Smith in the first 8-10 games of 2015 to numbers significantly better than Smith down the stretch of 2015 (what I would consider his true year 1 since he got the luxury of starting 16 games). 

 

Acknowledging that Smith is a different QB than Cousins, I'm not holding out hope that we'll see December, 2015 numbers from him ever (maybe a one-off here or there). But, I'm hoping that the back half of this year we see more of what he did in Arizona (250ish yards and a good TD/INT ratio) much more consistently. Then, spinning ahead to next year, that is what I'd hope would be more of the baseline (just as Cousins' great 2015 games became much more common in 2016). 

[NikeRedskin7]

10 minutes ago, crabbypatty said:

 

yeah, i don't think so. The schedule this team had to start the season, even including this week was pretty tough.

Arizona, Indy, NYG "easy" teams, and GB, Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans Dallas.. Those are really good teams (Dallas is decent, but always give us trouble)

Take that vs the vikings first 8 games of the season:

SF, Buffalo, Arizona, and NYJ.. their "easy" games GB, Rams, Philly and New Orleans.. the tougher games. Yet for having the superior team, with superior passing numbers, the vikings are 4-3-1, while Smith and the redskins are 5-2 (hopefully 6-2 after sunday)

 

I do agree that Smith isn't good enough to bring us back from behind, but I don't think the vikings had any tougher schedule than we did thus far.

 

*eta

So you're saying with Cousins we'd be 6-1.. vs the 5-2 we are now? not a whole lot of difference there. Yes it's better, but not the difference between going 6-10 and 10-6.

 

 

GB has to be classified as an easy team when we played them because A-Rod was playing badly injured and definitely no where close to his normal playing ability.  Dallas....  Pretty much no offense right now missing the pro bowler Frederick and another banged up o-lineman, other than a decent Beasley, NO receivers, so I won't say they were an easy team, but they aren't a good team either.

 

Carolina is legit.  Atlanta has a good offense but their defense is suspect.  I expect us to win that one.  With that said, I still think we are 6-1 with Cousins cause he is a better QB imo.  He would have been even better with AD lining up behind him.

[Morneblade]

10 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I don't know the answers to any of those questions. I know that our passing game and scoring offense improved dramatically between 2014 and 2015. I also know that Cousins himself went from posting numbers significantly worse than Smith in the first 8-10 games of 2015 to numbers significantly better than Smith down the stretch of 2015 (what I would consider his true year 1 since he got the luxury of starting 16 games). 

 

Acknowledging that Smith is a different QB than Cousins, I'm not holding out hope that we'll see December, 2015 numbers from him ever (maybe a one-off here or there). But, I'm hoping that the back half of this year we see more of what he did in Arizona (250ish yards and a good TD/INT ratio) much more consistently. Then, spinning ahead to next year, that is what I'd hope would be more of the baseline (just as Cousins' great 2015 games became much more common in 2016). 

 

Most of those are fair points. I do however think you're expecting a little too much out of Smith. 250 yards/game ave. is something he's done once in 13 years, he's been well below that in every year prior. He had much better weapons including a guy that there is literally no real equal to, to barely get 4k. Even with everything clicking, I don't see him as much more than a 3500 yard guy here.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

3 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Most of those are fair points. I do however think you're expecting a little too much out of Smith. 250 yards/game ave. is something he's done once in 13 years, he's been well below that in every year prior. He had much better weapons including a guy that there is literally no real equal to, to barely get 4k. Even with everything clicking, I don't see him as much more than a 3500 yard guy here.

 

I wouldn't expect that to be his average either. I'd expect that to be his "A game" but would just expect more than one per half-season. 

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, Morneblade said:

How much of that has to do with Smith, and how much has to do with AP and a top 5 defense?

 

Oh I get that - although Smith not turning that ball over is a factor. There are going to be games ahead when he has to do more than hand off to AP and not throw picks for us to continue to win.

[wit33]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep I am that diabolical nothing gives me more pleasure than to set Alex up for a fall.   Goskins apparently is on it, too since he made the same point.   Wonder who else is in on the conspiracy?  Atlanta's defense is secretly great. 

 

Not diabolical. Lol

 

It does set you up to compare Alex and Eli next week, no matter the result. Eli looked nothing like Aaron Rodgers that night and you know this, yet he was mentioned. 

 

Alex, get Skins to 35+ minutes TOP, commit no TOs, and hit a few passes of high value situationally, all is good. Yes, this is me reaching to find value in Alex. I also am operating under the premise he’s being paid as the 15th highest paid QB, so my expectation is for him to be average to above, which overall I dont believe he has to this date.

 

But those damn intangibles lol are playing a part.  

[Bigmuss1]

I’m not a numbers guy, as long as the W column keeps getting filled.  However, just watching Alex Smith play this year versus last year, he just simply looks different.....even in the Redskins vs Chiefs game in arrow head last year, Alex continually killed our D with his legs.  Maybe it’s just me, but I just don’t see the same confident QB.  I could be wrong, but, holy moly he appears to be a shell of himself.

[wit33]

Alex’s eyes and feet don’t appear to be in sync leading to inaccuracies. Any QBs or coaches out there that can expound upon this or debunk? 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

It does set you up to compare Alex and Eli next week, no matter the result. Eli looked nothing like Aaron Rodgers that night and you know this, yet he was mentioned. 

 

 

The Aaron Rodgers analogy is for humor.  Obviously, Eli stinks and Aaron is a Greek god level QB.  But I watched that game in full versus followed the box score or watched the highlights.  And the Giants moved the ball all game.  It was close for most of the game.  Giants couldn't convert in the red zone.   If you don't believe that read the articles I posted on it.   And yeah I am standing by Eli indeed looked good in that game.  His stats were very good.  But he also played well IMO aside from red zone offense.   

 

My point though was to use Eli to make a point colorfully and that is the Falcons defense stinks.  And I don't think I need to protect Alex by keeping that point under wraps in case he doesn't play well against a bad defense.   People know or are about to find out.  ?   So if it happens, I won't be the one breaking the news, it will be part of the narrative.  Hopefully, it doesn't come to it.  He can move the ball against this defense.  

 

21 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Alex, get Skins to 35+ minutes TOP, commit no TOs, and hit a few passes of high value situationally, all is good. Yes, this is me reaching to find value in Alex. I also am operating under the premise he’s being paid as the 15th highest paid QB, so my expectation is for him to be average to above, which overall I dont believe he has to this date.

 

 

 Actually I thought he would be flat out good as opposed to average to good.  So far no dice. But hopefully that changes.  I am not obsessed for having salary matched to level of play in a strict sense especially at QB.  The reason why teams tend to "overpay" for Qbs is because these days past the Trent Dilfer era -- its almost impossible to win a SB or even make one with average to good level QB play.  Typically you need at least the good to very good range.    Ironically that seems to be the argument more or less that some KC writers made about why Andy Reid moved on -- along with other factors.   Last year for awhile it looked like Jax might have broken that mold but came a bit short and now seems to be take a step back. 

 

 

[Morneblade]

35 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Not diabolical. Lol

 

It does set you up to compare Alex and Eli next week, no matter the result. Eli looked nothing like Aaron Rodgers that night and you know this, yet he was mentioned. 

 

Alex, get Skins to 35+ minutes TOP, commit no TOs, and hit a few passes of high value situationally, all is good. Yes, this is me reaching to find value in Alex. I also am operating under the premise he’s being paid as the 15th highest paid QB, so my expectation is for him to be average to above, which overall I dont believe he has to this date.

 

But those damn intangibles lol are playing a part.  

 

9th highest QB contract.

[wit33]

16 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

9th highest QB contract.

 

This is false. His contract for this individual season ranks him at #15, #22 next year. 

[Morneblade]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

This is false. His contract for this individual season ranks him at #15, #22 next year. 

 

It's not false. Look at the contract. At this point, this season, his contract is is for 94 million over 5 years, with a average salary of 23.5 million with 58% of it being guaranteed. That puts him between Luck and Flacco (8 and 10 respectively).

[wit33]

7 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

It's not false. Look at the contract. At this point, this season, his contract is is for 94 million over 5 years, with a average salary of 23.5 million with 58% of it being guaranteed. That puts him between Luck and Flacco (8 and 10 respectively).

 

Youre choosing to manipulate the numbers and believe you know this. 

 

Alex for this individual season (2018) is the #15 ranked QB in pay. 

[JSSkinz]

4 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Youre choosing to manipulate the numbers and believe you know this. 

 

Alex for this individual season (2018) is the #15 ranked QB in pay. 

You're looking at the per year and he's looking at the AAV, I think AAV is what most people use but I tend to just look at the guaranteed money portion and use that average when the player is 34, I can't imagine him being here 5 years but who knows.

[Morneblade]

47 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

You're looking at the per year and he's looking at the AAV, I think AAV is what most people use but I tend to just look at the guaranteed money portion and use that average when the player is 34, I can't imagine him being here 5 years but who knows.

 

I'm looking at several things, AAV being one, but here is guaranteed % and other factors. Wit33 has his agenda though, and will do whatever to push it. .

[wit33]

18 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I'm looking at several things, AAV being one, but here is guaranteed % and other factors. Wit33 has his agenda though, and will do whatever to push it. .

 

It’s not an agenda, I truly believe in not overpaying the average to above QBs. Alex’s deal meets in the middle with this line of thinking. 

 

1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

You're looking at the per year and he's looking at the AAV, I think AAV is what most people use but I tend to just look at the guaranteed money portion and use that average when the player is 34, I can't imagine him being here 5 years but who knows.

 

This is what agents use to pump up a players contract. Teams can careless about this number, nor should we. Using the 3rd, 4th, and 5th year of a deal as an argument for how much a guy is being paid overall today makes zero sense for many reasons. 

[HardcoreZorn]

% of cap and GTD money is what you should really care about.

[wit33]

2 hours ago, HardcoreZorn said:

% of cap and GTD money is what you should really care about.

 

Exactly. Alex will be right at 10% for life of the deal. It’s a fair deal for both sides. 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, wit33 said:

Alex’s eyes and feet don’t appear to be in sync leading to inaccuracies. Any QBs or coaches out there that can expound upon this or debunk? 

 

 I am no coach or QB but listening to Cooley it sounds like he is playing too hurried so he's not planting the way he should on his back foot at times and he's a bit too frenetic when he's on the move in the pocket so he doesn't set his feet properly so the ball sails wide or is under thrown like the interception in NO when Harris was wide open for a TD behind the defender and the throw in the end zone to Sprinkle as an example.

 

Cooley said in one segment if Alex can settle down his nerves so to speak an accuracy improvement should come. 

[TSO]

Re: the cap space debate. 

 

Dead cap in the amount of $13.5 million going into his 4th year should be accounted for, though. Can’t ignore that if we’re just posting his three year numbers like that’s all he’s counting against the cap. If we move on after 2020 (extremely likely), we lost that cap space and there’s no getting it back.

 

So it’s like losing an additional $4.5 million per year in cap space over these three seasons due to having Alex Smith ($13.5 million in dead cap). That’s how his contract should be looked at. Yes, all that money is gone in 2021, but teams consider future cap as part of their strategy when signing players to contracts, so it shouldn’t be viewed as just 2021 cap space that’s lost. It’s cap space we could use for contracts we hand out in 2019 and 2020. 

 

Hence the $71 million guaranteed figure, which comes into play whether we move on or not after the 3rd season. Which means he does rank pretty high in terms of cap hit at the QB position.

 

The way @wit33 is putting it when he talks about cap hits ignores a significant chunk of those guarantees. If we’re going to only look at cap hit for three years (assuming we let him go after that - a solid assumption), then Alex costs us a total of $73.7 million in cap space ($60.7 million in cap hits 2018-2020, plus $13.5 million dead cap in 2021). You can’t ignore that dead cap money, because it’s a hindrance and was lost due to Alex’s guaranteed portion of his contract. 

 

In comparison since it often comes up, Kirk costs his team exactly $84 million in cap space over the course of three years and nothing else. No dead cap if they move on. So that’s really the comparison to be made in a three year window ($84 million vs. $73.7 million, which is a negligible $10.3 million difference over three years or a $3.4 million/year difference). 

 

Now, we can argue about what happens if we keep Alex after the third season (at 37 years old) and how we should look at that, but I’m not sure anyone would view that as a good thing right now no matter how much he costs. 

 

Finally, when talking about what Alex costs, you also can’t ignore that to acquire him we lost two significant assets in Fuller and a 3rd round pick (our last two 3rd rounders were Fuller himself and Fabian Moreau). 

 

So overall the cost of Alex Smith over the course of three seasons is $73.7 million in cap space (which ranks pretty high in terms of QB contracts and is not anywhere near “average”) + Kendall Fuller + 2018 3rd round pick. 

 

The only way this way of looking at it changes is if he plays well enough that we want to keep him after the three year guaranteed portion is up, in which case we’d likely restructure his contract anyway.