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      The Redskins have opened their 2019 season with two losses. Both against Divisional foes. Now they get to close out Week 3 at home on Monday Night against the visiting 1-1 Chicago Bears. The Bears don't have much of an offense but seem to have what may be an elite defense.
       
      On the flip side, the Redskins have a developing passing attack and a disastrous defense. The Redskins haven't had a Defense this vanilla since Mike Nolan received his ice cream. Oh, and the Redskins already have more guys on IR then any other team this season. 
       
      Will the Redskins finally put one in the win column? 
       
      As usual, poll closes at kickoff. Go vote!
zoony

Some Hard Truths

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99%+ of NFL contracts are non-guaranteed. Which means those players can be released at any time. People need to quit posting about "outs" in contracts. There's no such thing. There's no need for any such thing.

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26 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

99%+ of NFL contracts are non-guaranteed. Which means those players can be released at any time. People need to quit posting about "outs" in contracts. There's no such thing. There's no need for any such thing.

 

Technically this is true, but there comes a time when it's much easier to do so. For instance, if we cut Smith right now, he's still guaranteed $55 million. So sure we CAN cut him, and completely wreck our cap for a couple years to a point where we are cutting our own throats. In 2 more years it's a much more palatable 10 million. That's what people are getting at. "If we cut a guy now, is it going to kill our cap space".

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5 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Technically this is true, but there comes a time when it's much easier to do so. For instance, if we cut Smith right now, he's still guaranteed $55 million. So sure we CAN cut him, and completely wreck our cap for a couple years to a point where we are cutting our own throats. In 2 more years it's a much more palatable 10 million. That's what people are getting at. "If we cut a guy now, is it going to kill our cap space".

Smith is among the very few with guaranteed salaries. And I probably shouldn't say 99% because a lot of FA contracts right now have a couple years guaranteed, but it's still a rarity. 

 

Obviously, when you release a player determines what the dead cap will be.But the above poster shed if there were an "out" int he contract. There isn't. Such things are almost completely non-existent in the NFL. And I'm not picking on him. This keeps coming up on this board the last year or two. People keep asking about, and talking about "out clauses". That's something specific, and far different than just wondering what it will cost. 

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41 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

For instance, if we cut Smith right now, he's still guaranteed $55 million. So sure we CAN cut him, and completely wreck our cap for a couple years to a point where we are cutting our own throats. In 2 more years it's a much more palatable 10 million

 

The cap hit for Smith is a sunk cost. We are going to take that hit regardless. We could cut him now and take it all at once.  Or we could keep him and spread it out over a few years.

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32 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Smith is among the very few with guaranteed salaries. And I probably shouldn't say 99% because a lot of FA contracts right now have a couple years guaranteed, but it's still a rarity. 

 

Obviously, when you release a player determines what the dead cap will be.But the above poster shed if there were an "out" int he contract. There isn't. Such things are almost completely non-existent in the NFL. And I'm not picking on him. This keeps coming up on this board the last year or two. People keep asking about, and talking about "out clauses". That's something specific, and far different than just wondering what it will cost. 

 

This might be a issue of definition. I think (and, I could be wrong here) that when most people here are asking about an "out", they are really asking about  the cap hit. As in, will cutting "X" cost us 32 million in dead cap space, or only 5 million. I think that is what most people mean when they ask. but I could be very wrong on this as well, and are literally looking for a "out clause". In which case, you are absolutely correct.

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3 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

This might be a issue of definition. I think (and, I could be wrong here) that when most people here are asking about an "out", they are really asking about  the cap hit. As in, will cutting "X" cost us 32 million in dead cap space, or only 5 million. I think that is what most people mean when they ask. but I could be very wrong on this as well, and are literally looking for a "out clause". In which case, you are absolutely correct.

Again, I'm referring mainly to the preponderance of questions about out clauses lately. But if you ask if there is an out in a contract and that's not what you mean, use better words. The difference between 9 mil in dead cap and 6 mil, for example, doesn't represent an "out" in a contract. They're both "outs".

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1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Again, I'm referring mainly to the preponderance of questions about out clauses lately. But if you ask if there is an out in a contract and that's not what you mean, use better words. The difference between 9 mil in dead cap and 6 mil, for example, doesn't represent an "out" in a contract. They're both "outs".

 

 Ruf,

you should do a little photoshop with your sig.

Put Bruce Allen's head over the babe's head and change the ball to a Redskins helmet.

At least it would be more accurate...

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1 hour ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I need someone to tell me the hard truth about how Mighty Mouse Mason Foster is a Defensive Captain. 

Playing the guess game here:

He's the one making the calls on D?

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Don't ever expect this team to get a next level win.  They're not in the upper echelon.  They are mediocre to below average at best and that's all they will ever.  The Browns have surpassed them already.

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Raise you hands if you thought.....even with the two games being at home.....that the Skins would be 4-2 after watching us in NO a few Mondays ago. Not me....I would've said 3-3. 

 

The game in NY does scare me, but I see that Atlanta is on a bye next week. I like our chances in the game against the Falcons, as I feel teams tend to come out a bit flat after the bye (based on nothing!). 

 

Edit: Same against Houston as well...….they are on bye before they play the Skins. 

Edited by hail2skins
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Yep @hail2skins i think i said 3-3 as well. Most were saying 2-4 though in the gameday thread against the saints. 

 

I like our chances Vs the giants better than our chances against the falcons though. Matt Ryan is very good and that offense can put up points in bunches. Could be quite similar to the MNF game i fear...

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On 10/9/2018 at 7:58 PM, Rufus T Firefly said:

Smith is among the very few with guaranteed salaries. And I probably shouldn't say 99% because a lot of FA contracts right now have a couple years guaranteed, but it's still a rarity. 

 

Obviously, when you release a player determines what the dead cap will be.But the above poster shed if there were an "out" int he contract. There isn't. Such things are almost completely non-existent in the NFL. And I'm not picking on him. This keeps coming up on this board the last year or two. People keep asking about, and talking about "out clauses". That's something specific, and far different than just wondering what it will cost. 

 

I agree with your statement but would offer a little clarification on their behalf. When people say "out clause", I think they mean can the Redskins got out of the contract with little to no damage to the CAP. To that end, the cap hits for releasing Alex are below. 

 

I know you understand the following so this is really more for those thinking the team can get "out" of the contract with relatively smaller dead CAP in after 2019. 

 

For those thinking there is "out" after two years - besides using the wrong terminology - you may be looking at the drop from $36.6M in dead cap before 2019 to "just" $16.2M before 2020. However, once he is on the team the 5th day of 2019, his salary for 2020 becomes guaranteed so if they try to cut him after 2019 - before 2020, that instantly becomes dead cap. The chart below does not reflect that since technically it's not guaranteed yet. 

 

Practically speaking he is with the team until after 2020 unless they want a massive dead CAP hit - $36.6M before 2019 or I believe $32M after 2019. So he is the next two seasons.

 

image.png.90c24348f57523563b2c1391f0383662.png

 

 

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46 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I agree with your statement but would offer a little clarification on their behalf. When people say "out clause", I think they mean can the Redskins got out of the contract with little to no damage to the CAP. To that end, the cap hits for releasing Alex are below. 

 

I know you understand the following so this is really more for those thinking the team can get "out" of the contract with relatively smaller dead CAP in after 2019. 

 

For those thinking there is "out" after two years - besides using the wrong terminology - you may be looking at the drop from $36.6M in dead cap before 2019 to "just" $16.2M before 2020. However, once he is on the team the 5th day of 2019, his salary for 2020 becomes guaranteed so if they try to cut him after 2019 - before 2020, that instantly becomes dead cap. The chart below does not reflect that since technically it's not guaranteed yet. 

 

Practically speaking he is with the team until after 2020 unless they want a massive dead CAP hit - $36.6M before 2019 or I believe $32M after 2019. So he is the next two seasons.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the numbers.  So the only option on that front is draft a young QB, hope he's the answer but you still get hammered with a heavy cap hit in doing it.  Sort of like what the Cowboys did with Romo and Dak.  Not saying i am throwing the towel and that's what they should do -- I'd let this play out this season.  But interesting.  With McNabb they had the leeway to escape unscathed.  not the case here if it goes wrong.

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1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thanks for the numbers.  So the only option on that front is draft a young QB, hope he's the answer but you still get hammered with a heavy cap hit in doing it.  Sort of like what the Cowboys did with Romo and Dak.  Not saying i am throwing the towel and that's what they should do -- I'd let this play out this season.  But interesting.  With McNabb they had the leeway to escape unscathed.  not the case here if it goes wrong.

 

I would hope that's part of their plan either way. They need to have a back-up and move forward plan regardless of what Alex does. 

 

I am not done with Alex either, but he is not playing to the level I expected him to. I figured him to be a small down grade from Kirk - and early on he was jut that, a slight down grade but holding on. Yesterday was bad. Have to agree with Ghaldi and others who say they won despite him not because of him. They again as  I stated elsewhere, in fairness he was without 3 of his primary receivers in CT, Crowder, and Richardson. He was just starting to develop some rapport with Richardson and we know what CT can do. He needs to figure it out soon. Games only get tougher and mean more. 

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Right now we have to role with this guy until the end of the season.  Who knows he may have a clause in there that he needs to play at least 11 games, can't be benched etc etc.  Anyway we need to get a young guy to groom for next season, hopefully Doug Williams and staff are good enough  to get us a solid prospect because I can tell you, this years crop of QBs where we will be drafting if we win the division is nothing to write home about so far.  Whatever we do we MUST NOT overreach and trade up like we did with RGIII.  Then next year you start with Alex and hope to God he is a little better knowing the offense for a year.  Next year in fact I think our D will be even better, so a little leeway for Smith to mess up.  LOL.  Anyway that should be the plan. 

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6 minutes ago, TheGreek1973 said:

Right now we have to role with this guy until the end of the season.  Who knows he may have a clause in there that he needs to play at least 11 games, can't be benched etc etc.  Anyway we need to get a young guy to groom for next season, hopefully Doug Williams and staff are good enough  to get us a solid prospect because I can tell you, this years crop of QBs where we will be drafting if we win the division is nothing to write home about so far.  Whatever we do we MUST NOT overreach and trade up like we did with RGIII.  Then next year you start with Alex and hope to God he is a little better knowing the offense for a year.  Next year in fact I think our D will be even better, so a little leeway for Smith to mess up.  LOL.  Anyway that should be the plan. 

 

I think this is close...I think we most likely need to roll with Smith for the rest of this year and some/all of next year. We won't be able to get a week-1-ready QB with where we'll likely draft. 

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32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thanks for the numbers.  So the only option on that front is draft a young QB, hope he's the answer but you still get hammered with a heavy cap hit in doing it.  Sort of like what the Cowboys did with Romo and Dak.  Not saying i am throwing the towel and that's what they should do -- I'd let this play out this season.  But interesting.  With McNabb they had the leeway to escape unscathed.  not the case here if it goes wrong.

 

I think that has to be the plan to either draft somebody this year - or more likely position themselves in this draft this year to make a run at someone next year (i am guessing they had hoped Smith would be more seamless than this) - and maybe he will get there - but i cannot imagine anyone would think he was a long term plan.

 

In the best case scenario Smith balled out we won a bunch of games and everyone was happy - Smith walks away on his own terms after a superbowl run 

 

In the most likley optimistic case  Smith kind of balls out - Keeps Bruce and Jay employed with a playoff (or close to a playoff run) we wheel and deal in the next couple of drafts and score a big time prospect in the  2020 draft  to sit an learn under Smith and Smith rides off into the sunset after three years ...

 

A less optomisitc view - is Smith walks the line of being uber efficient and kind of limitiing - Doesn't actually cost us games and we do well enough to keep some or all of Jay, Bruce and Co employed (hopefully not Bruce) and we stumble in the vauge direction of the playoffs ... However the writting is on the wall and we end up having to try and score either a bargin draft prospect or get out and scout the second tier guys to find a Russell Willson etc who might need one or two years on the bench 

 

The - 'keeping it real' crew will, however, tell us - We are all screwed burn it all burn it all now (because that works)  .....

 

 

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thanks for the numbers.  So the only option on that front is draft a young QB, hope he's the answer but you still get hammered with a heavy cap hit in doing it.  Sort of like what the Cowboys did with Romo and Dak.  Not saying i am throwing the towel and that's what they should do -- I'd let this play out this season.  But interesting.  With McNabb they had the leeway to escape unscathed.  not the case here if it goes wrong.

 

Good take. 

 

We are stuck with Alex Smith until June 1st 2020.  Unfortunately, I don't see a sudden turnaround in his play (still keeping the fingers crossed).  The extension that Bruce Allen keeps from seeking any veteran QB help - because they'll be too costly on top of Alex's contract.   So we are forced to follow the Chief's model. 

 

Somehow we have to get lucky and draft a quality QB in 2019 draft.  Alex goes into the 2019 season as the starter and we let the rookie compete for the job.  The cap for a rookie QB isn't too bad and absent a turnaround in Alex's play in 2019 - in June 2020 we cut Alex.  If there is a turnaround - I would still follow the Chief's model and try trading him (if they don't solve their QB problem for next year - maybe to the Jaguars.....).

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3 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

I think that has to be the plan to either draft somebody this year - or more likely position themselves in this draft this year to make a run at someone next year (i am guessing they had hoped Smith would be more seamless than this) - and maybe he will get there - but i cannot imagine anyone would think he was a long term plan.

 

 

 

I think they need to I agree -- even if he was playing well, based on his age alone.  now, who is that guy?  I am starting to brainstorm. 

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3 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I think this is close...I think we most likely need to roll with Smith for the rest of this year and some/all of next year. We won't be able to get a week-1-ready QB with where we'll likely draft. 

 

If that's the case, would rather we not draft QB at all next season and wait until 2020 draft. 

 

Instead, use the top picks of 2019 to bolster up OL and ILB.

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We could get out for $21.75M on a post June 1 cut next season, if we roll over $9M in cap this year that means a cap hit of $12.75M of new money (cap) next year, I think that might be doable although I think we would take the same hit the following year which makes it tough.

 

 

 

 

Edited by JSSkinz

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7 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

If that's the case, would rather we not draft QB at all next season and wait until 2020 draft. 

 

Instead, use the top picks of 2019 to bolster up OL and ILB.

Don't agree, the smart play is to groom a QB, now if we can't draft the prospect we want next year where we pick then yes I agree, don't reach.  The issue is if Alex gets a little better and our D gets a lot better we maybe in that 20 to 25 first round pick in 2020 which again may not be the best for a QB starting right away.  that would be the scenario that scares me the most.

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