Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[goskins10]

10 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@Skinsinparadise 

 

1. The first part of my post was responding to the point you made regarding pass attempts now that Alex is on the Redskins.  It's a fact that he had just as many attempts per game as Cousins.  It's also a fact that he maintained far better efficiency on those attempts, with a much higher YPA.  I don't think that's debatable.  

 

I would disagree with this - especially the bolded part. I can only assume you are talking just about last year. Even then I am not sure I can agree with statement but at least it's close. So last year Alex had the best year of his career in many at least a few of those categories. He had better players around him and the Chiefs were not nearly as injured as the Redskins. Kirk was asked to do more with less and last yr the injuries, especially on the Oline and the lack of play-makers led to Kirk having some of worst numbers as a starter. For me that's cherry picking the stats. The best to compare them as starters over the same 3 yr period. 

 

With that, let's look at the actual numbers - again, using the 3 yrs that Kirk was a starter:

                                   

Alex Smith            2015      2016     2017     Totals (Ave)

Atts/Gm                 29.4       32.6     33.7        31.9 

YPA                        7.4         7.2       8.0          7.53

Comp %                65.3       67.1     67.5         66.7

 

 

Kirk Cousins        2015     2016       2017     Totals

Atts/Gm               33.9       37.9       33.8       35.2

YPA                       7.1        8.1         7.6        7.80

Comp %              69.6       67.0       64.3       67.0

 

So Kirk has 4 atts/gm more - not a lot, but more. That translates to 192 moire pass attemts over the last 3 yrs just in terms of average since Alex missed a few games. S in actual attempts it's much higher - but Ok, we were talking about per gm. To me that's significant. ALmost 200 more atts/gm. 

 

YPA - Kirk as almost an entire yd higher than Alex in 2016. In 2017 when Alex had his best season throwing long, he was 0.4 more. You could probably call that significant. But again what sa the cast? Who was Kirk throwing to deep last yr? When he had a deep threat similar to Hill he had about the same yds/att as Alex. 

 

Comp % - Overall Kirk has a slightly higher comp%. You could call it about even. But again, look at when Kirk had weapons vs when Alex had weapons. Alex was better last yr where Kirk was better in 2015. Both had a very good 2016.  

 

Not seeing how any of that supports that Alex "maintained far better efficiency." Honestly it's the "Far better" that has be hung up. If you want to make an argument he was slightly better, you probably can, specifically if you use just last yr. Even then, it's still pretty close for the most part. 

 

 

10 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

2. Regarding supporting cast: I agree that every QB is dependent on supporting cast.  If Reed, Guice, and the OL don't stay healthy, it's gonna be a long season.  No debate there.  But Smith had Kelce and Tyreek in 2016 as well.  He also had Spencer Ware at RB, who was a solid starter (1,368 yards from scrimmage in 14 games).  But Smith put up pedestrian numbers that year.  What changed regarding supporting cast between 2016 and 2017?  Kareem Hunt, obviously (1,782 yards from scrimmage in 16 games - which is only a little less than a 14 YPG difference from Ware).  But, more importantly, IMO, the defense around him changed.  They went from elite in 2015, to above average in 2016, to bottom 3 in 2017.  This forced Reid to adjust his play calling, which has normally been extremely conservative:

 

Chiefs Offensive Profile Under Andy Reid
2014-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 28th, 29th, 25th, 17th
2014-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 16th, 12th, 14th, 23rd
2014-2017 Play Volume Rank: 29th, 31st, 27th, 24th
2014-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 17th, 12th, 16th, 2nd

 

This adjustment put more of the onus on Smith than he's ever had before, and he delivered in a huge way.  

 

This is a fair point. However, Jay has had that problem every yr he has been here (yes it's mostly self inflicted but that's a different thread.. :-)  And then the injuries. I don't care how much people want to say -"next man up.", it's just not realistic when you have the number of injuries this team had. They had 309 lost starter games due to injury last yr - good for 4th most. But keep in mind that until 2016 no team had ever had 300 (for at least the last 15+ yrs. I have not seen data from before but I doubt it will be higher.) There were just 2 teams last yr with more than 300, and 4 this yr. 

 

10 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Look, I understand the critics who say he's an average or slightly above average QB who has never put up good bulk stats in any year other than 2017.  But that ignores a whole lot of context.  For the last seven years, the guy has been on 49ers and Chiefs teams with elite defenses (or the rare year where they're just above average).  Of course he's not gonna be asked to put up crazy bulk stats or take a lot of risk.  He did prove what he could do when asked to shoulder more responsibility last year though, with mostly the same supporting cast he had in 2016 on offense.  I think that should count for something more than just dismissing it as an "outlier" season.

 

I agree here but I also do not think you can just assume it's the new normal either. Since 2005 Alex was pretty much the same guy - not bad by any means. But not awesome either. Last yr I agree he stepped up. But not sure you can make the leap that last yr is who Alex is. I want him to be. But I need to see him do it twice before I become a believer. BTW: I was in the same place with Kirk. I was Ok with the tag for 2016, but with the caveat they had to sign him to a long term deal before the 2017 season if he played well in 2016 - which he did. We of course know how that went.

 

10 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I picked this quote out of the article you posted.  I don't think most people understand that this is what an Andy Reid offense DOES.  He has always used screens and dump-offs more than any other HC in the league.  This isn't some crutch that Reid constructed for Smith.  Alex Smith is the first 4,000 yard passer Andy Reid has ever called plays for in his career, and Alex actually played at his best last year when Nagy was calling plays, not Reid.  I think people are ignoring Reid's offensive scheme and play calling tendencies when they bash Alex for his conservatism.  Some of the criticism against Alex is fair, but a lot of it ignores context and what he has been asked to do while playing with elite defenses.

 

I agree here. No argument. But I believe the same for Kirk. He was continuously called Capt Check down, despite numbers not supporting that line. BTW: You should have seen the comments on KC articles thew last few yrs. Fans were very frustrated with his being conservative. Sound familiar? 

 

10 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I wonder what people will say when Kirk barely puts up 4,000 yards this year because he will be on a team with a great defense and running game.  Will they say he had a bad year because he didn't put up more yards?  I doubt it.  His efficiency, and ability to avoid turnovers and win games, will be what he will be judged by.

 

So what if he throws for 4500? 5000? Will it be because he has a better cast? But he already did that in Wash, with a bad supporting cast. I agree it will be interesting to se how he does and how their offense changes. Will they try to be a more vertical team? Will they run more? They get Dalvin Cook back who was considered one of the best RBs in the 2017 draft. Lot's a questions there - not necessarily bad ones, but questions. Will be interesting to see how it impacts Kirk's numbers and his overall play. 

 

I like both QBs. I see them with very similar skill sets. Alex is a little better under pressure I believe but I think Kirk will take more chances (some I wish he would take back!) I just don't think you can make an argument that either one is that much better than the other at anything - at least not so far. 

 

My personal feeling is that both will have very good years. If either, or both teams fail, I do not think it will be the QBs play that is the cause for either. That's just me. 

[HTTRDynasty]

@Skinsinparadise

 

So, I get that you understand Alex put up great stats last season, and we both acknowledge it was an outlier compared to the rest of his career. I think the difference between us here stems from the fact that you’re attributing all (or most) of Smith’s statistical improvement in 2017 vs prior years to the improvement of Smith’s supporting cast on offense. For me, while I acknowledge that Smith had a great supporting cast on offense last year, I also attribute Smith’s increase in yards, YPA, and TD’s to the fact that the Chiefs offense was forced to play much more aggressively last year due to their terrible defense. I guess there’s no real stat that can prove either of us right here, but I will continue to look at context to the greatest extent possible (in totality) when evaluating a player’s performance (not saying that you don’t - I view you as easily one of the best posters on this site, and you are usually very insightful) but I might assign a higher value on certain aspects of what caused a player to improve or regress, like defense and play-calling, that you or someone else doesn’t place a high value on. 

 

In regards to supporting cast, my main contention was that Smith had a good cast in 2016, but put up pedestrian bulk numbers.  Obviously, he had Maclin and Tyreek-lite in 2016 vs. a Tyreek who truly emerged in 2017 and he had a solid RB1 in Ware in 2016 vs Hunt in 2017, so he received obvious upgrades in 2017, but I think if the Chief’s defense was as bad in 2016 as it was in 2017, you would have seen Reid become a much more aggressive play-caller that year.  Maybe the results wouldn’t have been as good as 2017 due to the lack of equivalent talent around Smith that year, but I think his bulk stats would have been much more impressive than they were. Oddly enough, in Smith’s career year stats-wise, the Chiefs actually finished with the second worst record (10 wins) from his tenure there. While in 2016, which was arguably Smith’s worst year from a bulk stats standpoint, the Chiefs won 12 games. Which goes to show football has always been, and always will be a TEAM game, which I think circles back nicely to the point we both agree on: no QB will be all that successful from a W-L perspective without a strong supporting cast around him. 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

@goskins10

 

Yes, I was referring to 2017, because SIP said he wasn't sure Smith could maintain his efficiency in a Gruden offense, given how much Gruden expects his QBs to pass.  My point was that Alex has proven he can be very successful when asked to pass as much as Cousins was asked to.  The stats you show from the other years (TD to INT ratio, which is probably the most important efficiency stat out there, should be included in this as well) somewhat proves my point that Reid's lack of aggressiveness through the air in prior years held Smith's bulk numbers back.  My overall point is that I have no doubt that if Gruden asks Smith to pass as much as he asked Cousins to pass, he will still maintain his efficiency.

 

Re injuries: yes, Cousins had to deal with an unreal amount of injuries around him last year.  There's no doubt about that.  He deserves a tremendous amount of credit for battling through it.  

 

I agree with pretty much all the rest of your post.  I am probably more of a Smith believer than most here, but I am not sitting here thinking he will lead us to the promised land anytime soon without a significant amount of help around him.  I also share SIP's concern about his long-term impact here due to his age (especially with his already below average arm strength and his dependence on his legs.  But I do think he is capable of doing very well in Gruden's offense in the short term, and I also think his proven ability to limit turnovers will be the deciding factor (other than injury) in getting us to double digit wins this year.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

So, I get that you understand Alex put up great stats last season, and we both acknowledge it was an outlier compared to the rest of his career. I think the difference between us here stems from the fact that you’re attributing all (or most) of Smith’s statistical improvement in 2017 vs prior years to the improvement of Smith’s supporting cast on offense. For me, while I acknowledge that Smith had a great supporting cast on offense last year, I also attribute Smith’s increase in yards, YPA, and TD’s to the fact that the Chiefs offense was forced to play much more aggressively last year due to their terrible defense. I guess there’s no real stat that can prove either of us right here, but I will continue to look at context to the greatest extent possible (in totality) when evaluating a player’s performance (not saying that you don’t - I view you as easily one of the best posters on this site, and you are usually very insightful) but I might assign a higher value on certain aspects of what caused a player to improve or regress, like defense and play-calling, that you or someone else doesn’t place a high value on. 

 

 

 

Thanks and likewise.  Good discussion.  To clarify and simply my point

 

A.  Alex had a career year last year.

B.  Stellar supporting cast might have had something to do with it.

 

But I don't land really on any spot on these points below -- just saying I don't know.

 

A.  Alex's career year represents him finding his stride late in his career or was it an outlier coupled with he's not getting younger and he relies on his legs

B.  Can he replicate 2017 with an inferior supporting cast coupled with a pass heavy offense? 

 

I get your point that their defense wasn't hot last year and Alex threw the ball more.  However, he still had great people to throw the ball to and defenses had to account for their running game.  When you play the Redskins in recent years their running game doesn't put fear in defenses so they don't have to load the box to stop it.  I think Guice might change that dynamic.

 

I don't really land hard on a position on Alex aside from I think he's a good QB.   I suspect he's not a great QB.  However, if by some chance he can build off 2017 and be one of the rare QBs who improve in their mid 30s -- then awesome.

 

I liked Kirk and I think they screwed up that contract big time.  Nonetheless, I am always rooting for the team to do well and Alex is such a cool person that I am rooting for the best for the dude.   And if by chance the Alex Smith going forward is the 2015-2016, etc version of himself.  I am cool with that.  I suspect though that some people (not you) will feel let down if that happens.  Hence my point about how I like to temper expectations a little.    And heck if he's 2017 version and only getting better -- terrific.  I just wonder about that but not because I don't think its possible -- its just that I am not counting on it. 

 

[SWFLSkins]

The thread is an interesting read for sure, lots of metrics and stats, good points being discussed. I would add that both guys now in different systems and it is hard to predict if that will benefit or hurt one or both of them. I have high hopes that Gruden offensively is better at getting it out of a QB vs. Andy Reid. Reid is pure WCO and won't adjust game plan vs. Jay who I think is quite creative. I also think Alex won't miss blatantly open Receivers while focusing on being safe and going underneath. Alex is better at Ad-lib, throwing on the run, rolling out and throwing or running. There really is nothing to debate there. 

 

I may be proven wrong but I think Jay's hindrance was Kirk and his need for plays to go as scripted. This is where Alex has complete separation vs. Cuz, that and experience reading D's. Is Alex going to be boring, probably. Is Alex going to check down, most likely. Is Alex going to turn the ball over? Not as much. Is Alex going to be fired up giving us slogans and rah-rah, not as much most likely. 

 

It is well known that I authored, and harped on Jay Gruden as a HC with my Buy or Sell threads. And if memory serves you, you'll remember that I changed to a Hold during last season, especially after Jays comments on Cuz not practicing nor implementing the F it I'm going deep with a 50-50 ball. I also think that the frustration in being able to execute the fade in the RZ or RZ ineptitude in general all seemed to primarily fall on play calling and not the QB. 

 

This not being the Kirk v. Alex thread, so I won't go further on in that realm...I will add only this.... 

 

 

Alex Smith

158

90

67

1

.573

51

27

1

39

40

0

 

Overall Record

158

90-67-1

51-27-1

39-40

 

AT Home Alex is 51-27, He has 90 win and 67 losses, .573 career pct. 183 TD's and 96 Int. 

 

 

Kirk Cousins

58

26

31

1

.457

16

13

0

10

18

1

 

Overall Record

58

26-31-1

16-13

 

At Home is 26-31, He has 26 wins and 31 losses, , .457 career pct. 99 TD's and 55 Int. 

 

 

 

 

I support our new QB as the thread title suggests, I feel good about where Alex can take the team. 

Very interesting reading from the KC side of this throwing yards discussion...

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/7/19/15985386/how-chiefs-qb-alex-smith-performs-in-wins-vs-losses

 

So this whole time we’ve been fighting about Alex Smith’s passing yards totals, we’ve been wrong. It doesn’t friggin matter!?!?

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/qb-records.html

 

Sorry the above link was the source for the stats I quoted...

[SWFLSkins]

Summing it up

We can (but won’t) quit complaining about Alex Smith’s passing yards.

When it comes to winning, what really matters most is QB rating and/or QB efficiency. Alex Smith has been an above average QB in Kansas City in terms of efficiency, so he deserves a lot of credit for the team’s success.

Somehow I don’t think we’ll remember this information the next time he throws for 178 yards.

[HardcoreZorn]

@HTTRDynasty got me thinking with the Andy Reid first 4000 yard passer stat. I kind of agree that Alex has quarterbacked two teams that didn't have to throw very vertical down the field. Why ask your Quarterback to take a bunch of chances and chuck it down the field with the kind of defenses that were backing him? A lot of people use the "no defense" as a way to prop up Kirk Cousins but is that necessarily the correct way to look at it? Or does the fact that Kirk had shoddy defenses lend itself to better bulk stats but not necessarily better Quarterbacking?

 

Jay Gruden's first year as head coach in 2014, we had a QB carousel of Griffin/Cousins/McCoy. Those guys combined for a 67% CMP% and nearly 4500 yards. Yet Andy Reid, another great offensive mind, has never had a 4,000 yard passer prior to this year? Wow.

 

Oddly enough, I see this being way more about Jay than I do either Cousins/Smith. It's really no secret that Dalton had some really productive years under Jay and outside of 2015, he's kind of fallen way off. In 2014, with a QB carousel, we still had little trouble collecting yards through the air. So if Alex easily tops 4,000, what does that really say?

 

What's the point of all this? Scheme is VERY important when it comes to trying to glean something from a QB's stats. There are countless examples of QB's looking mediocre at best in one scheme only to explode in another. Jared Goff looked lost as a rookie. In his second year, with McVay calling plays, all of a sudden he's lighting it on fire?

 

There is a lot of talk about what Cousins didn't have, but what about what he did have? I think Jay's offense and ability to scheme a passing game is under appreciated around here in general. This year will be very telling in one way or another.

[goskins10]

21 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@goskins10

 

Yes, I was referring to 2017, because SIP said he wasn't sure Smith could maintain his efficiency in a Gruden offense, given how much Gruden expects his QBs to pass.  My point was that Alex has proven he can be very successful when asked to pass as much as Cousins was asked to.  The stats you show from the other years (TD to INT ratio, which is probably the most important efficiency stat out there, should be included in this as well) somewhat proves my point that Reid's lack of aggressiveness through the air in prior years held Smith's bulk numbers back.  My overall point is that I have no doubt that if Gruden asks Smith to pass as much as he asked Cousins to pass, he will still maintain his efficiency.

 

Re injuries: yes, Cousins had to deal with an unreal amount of injuries around him last year.  There's no doubt about that.  He deserves a tremendous amount of credit for battling through it.  

 

I agree with pretty much all the rest of your post.  I am probably more of a Smith believer than most here, but I am not sitting here thinking he will lead us to the promised land anytime soon without a significant amount of help around him.  I also share SIP's concern about his long-term impact here due to his age (especially with his already below average arm strength and his dependence on his legs.  But I do think he is capable of doing very well in Gruden's offense in the short term, and I also think his proven ability to limit turnovers will be the deciding factor (other than injury) in getting us to double digit wins this year.

 

 

First, I do not think we are that much different overall.

 

I was mostly addressing the one place where I disagree and that's the statement that Alex was far more efficient. Even for just last year it's a stretch to say he was "much" more efficient. We can add other measures but I was using the ones you provided. Since you were using those to make your point I did not want to introduce new metrics.

 

In the end I think the data says that the better the players around them the better the results more than how Andy calls a game vs. Jay. Both take what works. Jay tends to be a bit more pass happy but both are running similar offenses. Andy did not have anyone taking off the top the few years before Hill. Last year Kirk did not have anyone that was a deep threat and he did nit have a go to guy like Reed, especially when Thompson went down.

 

I also agree with the point that an elite D helps keep the numbers down because you don't get in shootouts. Lower numbers win then you cose them out with long painful drives.

 

I just think it's a stretch to say Alex is "much" better in any way than Kirk. He is definitely better at some things and Kirk is better at others. Overall, I see them mostly as a wash with two differences - Alex does not throw as many picks and is a little better under pressure, but Kirk is younger and is more likely to be able to get significantly better.

 

Having said all that, I am fully behind Alex. He is now a Redskin so I am fully behind him. I actually think in terms of Ws, it's how the defense plays that will make a difference more than QB. You can't be last in the league in run D and expect to win many games. You just can't. At that point it really does not matter who the QB is. I like the potential of this D. But the guys have to stay healthy. If they produce then Alex's job gets exponentially easier.

 

One last thing, I will take Ws over stats any day. So if the team is winning but Alex is not putting up big numbers, it will not matter to me. The same for Kirk. He could have worse numbers but get many more wins than here. In fact, I will go a step further and say that if he puts up the numbers he did here in MN, it's likely they will have less wins. 

[bowhunter]

Jays offense gets receivers OPEN. Moreso or less than Andy Reids? Who knows? But the argument can be made that a better QB than Kirk would have had an even better year regardless of cast. That's what we will find out this season. There is no real apple to apples comparison that can happen in the NFL. Even if Alex puts up great numbers this year, it will be argued that the additions of Guice and Richardson made it easier than what Kirk had.

   ^That said, I expect Alex to better utilize the offense than Kirk did, and put up pretty good numbers. (And I really liked Kirk)

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

First, I do not think we are that much different overall.

 

I agree.

 

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

I was mostly addressing the one place where I disagree and that's the statement that Alex was far more efficient. Even for just last year it's a stretch to say he was "much" more efficient. We can add other measures but I was using the ones you provided. Since you were using those to make your point I did not want to introduce new metrics.

 

I believe he was far more efficient than Kirk last year.  I said he had "far better efficiency on those attempts, with a much higher YPA".  I wasn't just limiting the efficiency comparisons to YPA.  Maybe I phrased it wrong (and I definitely never used completion percentage; see below). 

 

Passing TD/INT Ratio

Smith: 5.2

Cousins: 2.1

 

Total (including rushing) TD/Turnover Ratio

Smith: 3.9

Cousins: 1.2

 

Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt

Smith: 8.6

Cousins: 7.5

 

 

The above efficiency ratings are the ones that matter most to me, the ones I review at the end of every year, and the ones I personally think have the most descriptive insight (from a broad-based analytics perspective) in regards to giving a snapshot view on how a QB has performed over the season (without getting into play-by-play statistics and the more granular statistics) as the goal of the game is to move the ball down the field efficiently (A/YPA) and score points without turning the ball over to the other team (TD/INT% and TD/TO%). These efficiency stats are much more important and telling than completion percentage, IMO, as players like Wentz (60.2%) and Wilson (61.3%) can be made to look as if they had pedestrian seasons last year based on this metric, while players like Josh McCown (67.3%) will look much better than they actually were.

 

Here are the 2015-2017 numbers by the way (even though I was just using 2017 numbers in order to illustrate Smith could maintain good efficiency while putting up good bulk stats too):

 

Passing TD/INT Ratio

Smith: 3.1

Cousins: 2.3

 

Total (including rushing) TD/Turnover Ratio

Smith: 2.1

Cousins: 1.4

 

Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt

Smith: 7.8

Cousins: 7.8

 

 

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

I just think it's a stretch to say Alex is "much" better in any way than Kirk. He is definitely better at some things and Kirk is better at others. Overall, I see them mostly as a wash with two differences - Alex does not throw as many picks and is a little better under pressure, but Kirk is younger and is more likely to be able to get significantly better.

 

I agree that Alex has his strengths, while Kirk has his.  If I am forced to choose though, I am more partial to the QB who gets single-digit interceptions every season, while putting up a good TD% as well, as I believe this facet of the game has the biggest impact on swinging momentum and outcomes one way or the other.  Don't get me wrong, I still think Kirk is a good player, who will do well in Minnesota.  I just think Alex might be better for our team as it is currently constructed, especially if Guice and the defense live up to their potential.

 

You can see below, a graphic representation of how much turnover differential matters when it comes to wins and losses:

 

 

2017 Season

 

 

 

I share SIP's concerns about Smith's age, and I hated the trade when it went down.  Though I have warmed up to it after we traded down in the 2nd and picked up a better 3rd than we originally had, for free, while still getting a top 2 RB in the draft.  I will still miss Fuller, but I understand why we made the move, and I think it could work out for us... even though I'll hate having to watch Bruce Allen smugly taking credit for it, for however long we remain successful if the trade does work out.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

Having said all that, I am fully behind Alex. He is now a Redskin so I am fully behind him. I actually think in terms of Ws, it's how the defense plays that will make a difference more than QB. You can't be last in the league in run D and expect to win many games. You just can't.

 

Actually, it's funny you bring this up.  Per DVOA (which takes starting field position for the defense and other variables into account), the Chiefs actually had the 32nd ranked run defense in the league last year (Redskins were 29th; Patriots actually ranked 31st) and they were able to win 10 games. I think the biggest reason the Chiefs were still able to win double-digit games with such a putrid defense is made apparent in that turnover differential graph shown above.  Which circles back to the article I quoted from Keim, and the reason for my optimism concerning an improvement in Win total this season.  We will obviously also need guys to stay healthy (Guice, OL, and Reed especially), but I think we can expect to be in the upper right hand quadrant of that graph this time next year if Alex continues to take care of the ball as well as he has throughout his career.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

I fully support and endorse Alex Smith!

excited to see what he can do with the Skins. I Think he can be our Rich Gannon spark and have the Redskins way better than people think this year. 

I dont give a hoot about his stats and I don’t think he does either. Wins and loses baby, Wins and loses. Skins 10-6. Don’t know how, don’t know where, but I believe in Alex Smith. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I don't think anyone here doesn't support Alex Smith.  We all do.  The relevance of Kirk versus Alex is projecting how this offense will go versus the past.  And I do think its also an X factor as to the future of the FO if the season doesn't go hot.  Factoring everything I've seen about both Kirk and Alex and read/listened to about both.

 

I'd sum it up this way.

 

Kirk

A. Positive people (more in this camp in their local):  Some around the Vikings think Kirk will emerge as very good QB in Minny.  They have weapons, run game, good defense -- Kirk never had even 2 of these variables in Washington let alone all 3.  The contract/lack of perceived FO support in DC won't be a problem there.  He's ready to thrive in the perfect setting which he didn't have in DC.

  

B. Negative people: He will stress out with the burden of being the guy.  Keenum was underestimated.  Kirk won't be an improvement over him  Minny and Kirk get exposed. Minny likely going deep in the playoffs does Kirk have the moxie to play well under pressure. 

 

Alex:

 

A. Positive people (more in this camp in our local) Alex is emerging late in his career.  He can run and go off script.  He doesn't turn the ball over.  Jay will bring the best out of him.  His ball handling skills with improve the run game.  He doesn't have all the contract drama stuff that brings a cloud over his season -- so he's relaxed and feels in charge where its his team.   He's an upgrade.

 

B. Negative people:  Andy Reid is more innovative in Jay specifically to getting the most of the Alex -- presnap motion, making the run game work.  Jay is good but not Andy Reid level good in those specifics.  Alex is more check down/conservative than what Jay is used to.  Teams figured out Alex after his hot 2017 start and played heavy zone against him and his play slid some.  At 34 his legs aren't going to be the same forever. The supporting cast isn't the same in DC.  Alex won't be the 2017 version of himself. 

 

As for the so called experts who studied both.  Contradictions depending on the source

 

A.  Some say Alex is more conservative on the field (Benoit, Spector, Football Outsiders).  Some say Kirk is more conservative in practice (Beat Reporters)  

B.  Some say Alex is reluctant to throw in tight windows during games (Benoit, Spector, other KC people) though apparently Alex isn't afraid to do it in practice (Jay)

C.  Some say Alex isn't clutch and isn't good in the red zone.  Some say the same about Kirk (multiple sources on both)

 

I trust Cooley who knows our offense and studied them both.  He thinks Kirk can be too rigid and doesn't play off script enough and is not spontaneous enough but he also likes how he hangs in there with his reads.  On the other hand, he likes Alex going off script more but also thinks Alex bails on his reads too quickly in the pocket and he's often not impressed with the way Alex throws the ball when he's on the move -- he thinks he doesn't keep his eyes looking forward well enough and defenses have a window to sack him when he does that and he thinks he takes too many sacks.  If you listen to Cooley you almost get the vibe that he'd love Alex to have some Kirk in him and Kirk to have some Alex in him.  He likes both guys but he doesn't seem to see a clear better QB between the two of them.  In different segments, he said one and in others he said the other.

 

Even Joe Thiesmann who is practically a mouthpiece for the organization -- he's very tight with Bruce and ownership -- gets pushed over and over again in radio interviews I've listened to and practically baited to say Alex is better.  His response is typically a variation of Kirk balled last year considering injuries and supporting cast.  He thinks Alex is a lateral move.  They both have different strengths and weaknesses but the upshot should be about the same.

[Llevron]

Cant we all just root for our guy and against the other guy? 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

Cant we all just root for our guy and against the other guy? 

 

I think we are all rooting for "our" guy. 

 

As for rooting against the other guy.  Some here clearly are.  Some here clearly are not.    Get the root for Alex drill - not sure what's the positive benefit of rooting against Kirk aside from if the Vikings play the Redskins. 

 

 

Switching gears, forgot if I ever posted the article below about Alex on being a TV fiend, pretty amusing.

 

Streaming With Mr. Smith

Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith is working to win a Super Bowl — and to get all of his teammates to binge-watch his favorite TV shows and read his favorite books

By Kevin Clark  Sep 27, 2016, 9:01am EDT

 

https://www.theringer.com/2016/9/27/16077012/kansas-city-chiefs-alex-smith-tv-books-ddff5c6ecb28

[Darth Tater]

12 hours ago, bowhunter said:

Jays offense gets receivers OPEN. Moreso or less than Andy Reids? Who knows? But the argument can be made that a better QB than Kirk would have had an even better year regardless of cast. That's what we will find out this season. There is no real apple to apples comparison that can happen in the NFL. Even if Alex puts up great numbers this year, it will be argued that the additions of Guice and Richardson made it easier than what Kirk had.

   ^That said, I expect Alex to better utilize the offense than Kirk did, and put up pretty good numbers. (And I really liked Kirk)

Alex's direct supporting cast in 2018 will almost certainly be better than (or at least equal to) what Kirk had in 2017, so, yes, unless Alex puts up all-pro numbers while Kirk is a bust, I'd expect people a lot of people here will still B+M. I'd say that in my fantasy, we keep Kirk (and thus the #3 and Fuller) but that is water under the bridge.  It might have made sense initially to **** and moan, but now, no matter what your initial feelings were, it is time to get behind Alex!

[Darth Tater]

11 hours ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

I fully support and endorse Alex Smith!

excited to see what he can do with the Skins. I Think he can be our Rich Gannon spark and have the Redskins way better than people think this year. 

I dont give a hoot about his stats and I don’t think he does either. Wins and loses baby, Wins and loses. Skins 10-6. Don’t know how, don’t know where, but I believe in Alex Smith. 

Thing is, if we'd had a top-10 defense in 2012, that team would have probably gone deep into the playoffs.  If we'd had that great of a defense in 2013, RG3 might still be our QB.

[bedlamVR]

22 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think we are all rooting for "our" guy. 

 

As for rooting against the other guy.  Some here clearly are.  Some here clearly are not.    Get the root for Alex drill - not sure what's the positive benefit of rooting against Kirk aside from if the Vikings play the Redskins. 

 

 

Switching gears, forgot if I ever posted the article below about Alex on being a TV fiend, pretty amusing.

 

Streaming With Mr. Smith

Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith is working to win a Super Bowl — and to get all of his teammates to binge-watch his favorite TV shows and read his favorite books

By Kevin Clark  Sep 27, 2016, 9:01am EDT

 

https://www.theringer.com/2016/9/27/16077012/kansas-city-chiefs-alex-smith-tv-books-ddff5c6ecb28

 

 

I know it is difficult on something like a message board or in any written communication to get across nuance but it is in my perception that  everything - and i mean everything you post seems to be the anti routing for 'our' guy - with the possible exception of Guice, but i am sure you will sour on him soon enough (maybe his pass blocking will be under scrutiny)  - 

 

For example - without playing a down - or having even a practice in Pads - you have dismissed our first round pick  Payne as 'just a guy' 

In various posts you have dismissed the roster as providing - no help, typically with respect to other people (e.g. to prop up Kirk)  - sorry but to my eyes - we have some very very good players on the roster and it irritates me to no end that you constantly feel the need to trash anyone in a Redskins jersey to  prop other people up . 

 

If you take from a post a couple of points up - 

 

Negative people:  Andy Reid is more innovative in Jay specifically to getting the most of the Alex -- presnap motion, making the run game work.  Jay is good but not Andy Reid level good in those specifics.  Alex is more check down/conservative than what Jay is used to.  Teams figured out Alex after his hot 2017 start and played heavy zone against him and his play slid some.  At 34 his legs aren't going to be the same forever. The supporting cast isn't the same in DC.  Alex won't be the 2017 version of himself. 

 

The things specifically the age and Smiths legs are things you have been parrotting in almost ever post as to why Alex was a bad idea - But has it not occurred to you Alex knows this and he is evolving his game as most running QBs have tried to do at some point with varying degrees of success - Generally running QBs tend to be more reckless and have below average fundamentals - runners who play QB, but Smith has good fundamentals and uses his legs to supplement his game. As to Smith being more conservative - this is an old trope that has followed him since the 49ers - he is careful but when the shots are called he takes them. Not so much with the guy who was here. - everyone remembers the if i took all the shots Jay called i would have 20 interceptions.... comment  

 

Also your comments put all of the blame on Smith for the failings or falling away of the Chiefs in 2017 - You have to remember - Hill is only a 2nd-year guy - he can make his share of mistakes - running the wrong route dropping the odd catch etc just like anyone else. 

 

Jays system is very very QB friendly ( which is why i kind of think Kirk might struggle some - coupled with the fact the new OC is a first time OC in Minny and Zimmer is a defensive minded coach) you can see how QB friendly the system is when McVey goes to LA and with the schemes he and Jay use (and you can see a lot of Jay in what McVey does) and suddenly Goff goes from dud to stud. 

 

Andy Reid is a hell of a head coach and offensive mind but his offense has always always been about the run first getting the balls into the runners hands from handoffs and pitches and using the pass to set up the run - ball control and stop them with the D    - the presnap motion and misdirection all help the run game work as much as it does the passing game.  Talent is important but scheme and adaptability are equally relevant - and i think until we see different players in different schemes then it is fairly pointless carving them up as players. .  

 

 

 

SIP you are a great poster and i enjoy reading what you say - and generally i disagree with most of what you say and the way you will find specific sources to act as an echo chamber to support and shield your opinion - while appearing (and it is - as i say a perception) to dismiss anything or any ignoring  other sources that dispute you. . 

 

I personally have great faith in the coaches and the players - but my expectations are routed right now in the 8-8 camp until i see something different. 8-8 to me is not great but not a failure depending on how you get there - going 7-1 and finishing the season 8-8 is crap but y'know ... and i have seen your expectations between 7-9 - 11-5 (which are actually better than my expectations) but everything seems to be shrouded in this - tempering expectations drab negativity - where is the love ? where is the optimism - Its july the sun is shining ( oddly in the UK it is something of a rarity ) - c'mon i know you have it in you ... be positive !

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

On 7/4/2018 at 9:39 AM, Llevron said:

Cant we all just root for our guy and against the other guy? 

 

Interesting take.

 

Considering the amount of folks that failed to root for the last “our guy”.  Most likely only a matter of time before Alex receives the same.

[SkinsGuy]

18 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

Interesting take.

 

Considerinf the amount of folks that failed to root for the last “our guy”.  Most likely only a matter of time before Alex receives the same.

 

I don't think it would be as bad for Alex Smith. At least, not in the way it was for Cousins.

 

The animosity directed at Cousins at times, was strange. Seems like there were some that Cousins could never meet their approval, now matter how good he played.

 

I always figured it was misplaced resentment from how the whole RG3 situation went down.

 

Fans won't be happy with Smith if he struggles, but I don't believe he will have to deal with the strange hostility that Cousins got.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, SkinsGuy said:

 

I don't think it would be as bad for Alex Smith. At least, not in the way it was for Cousins.

 

The animosity directed at Cousins at times, was strange. Seems like there were some that Cousins could never meet their approval, now matter how good he played.

 

I always figured it was misplaced resentment from how the whole RG3 situation went down.

 

Fans won't be happy with Smith if he struggles, but I don't believe he will have to deal with the strange hostility that Cousins got.

 

Beware, this post may prompt folks to come out of the woodworks with their story about how they are fair and rational, was ready to move on from RG3 before he even got here, and none of that has anything to do with their dislike of Cousins.

 

That said I pretty much agree with everything you said here.  I actually think if the team doesn't perform well, Alex may be safe from the same disdain heaped upon those before him, but primarily by the same folks you're talking about in the post.  They've got too much invested to just hate on Alex the way they hated on everyone else.

 

 

[skinny21]

@bedlamVR I’m actually aligned very closely to @Skinsinparadiseon a lot of the things he’s talked about, and I think a lot of it has to do with history causing a tempering of expectations.  

 

I see SIP’s posts as attempting a more clinical breakdown of things.  So when he posts what he has seen as the negative knocks on (or concerns with) Smith, he’s usually doing it based on what he has seen from reporters and metrics gurus... but then he turns around and does the same for the positives.  He also consistently talks about how he hopes for the best.  

 

Because of this, I disagree with the notion that he (seems to) ignore contrary sources that disagree with him, though as you say, it’s a perception issue.  

 

 

The other two players I have seen SIP express some reservations on are Payne and Anderson.  He’s pointed out the concerns - metrics, play he’s seen, ‘professional’ opinions, etc., but also mentioned the positives to highlight how he, and his references sources, could be wrong.  He also does this by using other sources, which is a plus, IMO.  

 

Payne I think he views as more than a JAG, it’s just that he wasn’t the slam dunk pick some are making him out to be (in his opinion).  That’s how his posts have come across to me anyway.  Again, I’m in the same boat as him - for Smith and both of these guys - though I might have a slightly more optimism, so maybe that’s coloring the way I read him.  

 

Overall, I feel like SIP consistently points out that he doesn’t want to come across as a hater, that he’s more shooting for a balancing of expectations and strives to point out what he views as mistaken impressions/facts/narratives.  

 

My two cents anyway.  

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

13 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

 

I know it is difficult on something like a message board or in any written communication to get across nuance

 

You say this which is spot on -- its hard to have a nuanced debate here -- then you engage in the absolute opposite of that point - and its not the first time when it comes to a debate between me and you. 

 

13 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

i mean everything you post seems to be the anti routing for 'our' guy - with the possible exception of Guice, but i am sure you will sour on him soon enough (maybe his pass blocking will be under scrutiny)  - 

 

 

It's a ridiculous point if you actually read my posts closely.  Just about every year, I typically have among the most optimistic takes on the season.  This season I am pausing a little because I want to see how injuries play out but I like the team's chances if they stay healthy.  You even say in your own post at the end that my take is more positive than you.  So for this reason among others comes off like you just want to get in a dig with your post versus have a discussion.  And it feels like its just an excuse to get out some pro Bruce steam versus actually debate.

 

If I have this long list of players I don't like -- then name them.  Who are they?  So I like the team's chances to win but hate the players?   That really adds up.   If anything I feel like I am one of the biggest defenders of players on the board over the years.  i defended every young QB when they started here, heck even John Beck.  I even defended some of the whipping boys on various threads including Ryan Grant.  It takes a lot for me to be annoyed about a player and its pretty rare for me to slam one.  I recall I didn't always love Compton -- though thought he was a cool guy so I wasn't that harsh.  I am not a big Robert Kelley guy but he's fine as a backup.   

 

Underlying some of the more heated discussions on the hater label is really a Bruce-Kirk thing.  Thinking about it who are the controversial people that people get all roused about.  Kirk. Bruce. Dan.  And those three variables are a bit interrelated.  And I know your position on all three.  And it doesn't match mine.  That's fine.  But when the debate stretches to the negative-positive stuff  -- to me that's total malarky and hypocritical.

 

Some of the people who disliked Kirk were among the most negative nellies on the board last year.  We were defending Kirk and Jay saying -- hey factor context this team has potential   They are better than their record.  But ironically the debate has flipped some now that Kirk is gone -- the refrain by some of those same people who were negative are now saying hey this team is better than looks -- factor context -- and please credit Bruce and the FO some for this.  And if you aren't on the FO/Bruce bandwagon then heck you are then a hater.  Weird stuff to me. 

 

Based on the tone of your post, I presume you were among the people who defended Kirk and the context of their losses last year? If so kudos for consistency.  It doesn't ring a bell with me.  But, I don't recall everyone's position but I do recall some of the more pro FO people were among the ones who were the most negative after the loses.  

 

13 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

For example - without playing a down - or having even a practice in Pads - you have dismissed our first round pick  Payne as 'just a guy' 

 

 

Not true.  Again talk about lacking nuance in discussion.  On Payne my argument was I think he's a good not a great player and I liked Edmonds/D. James better. Nuance.  I think the D line is the most important position on defense.  But I'd rather they'd have signed Richardson or maybe Hankins in FA and took James or Edmonds in the draft.  Nuance. 

 

I make my points as much as I can about who I like BEFORE the draft and ditto on FA.  If they do what I like -- example Guice, Richardson = I say I really like it.  If I say on the draft thread BEFORE the draft happens -- I'd be disappointed if they use that pick on Payne unless they traded down for him. Then, I stick with my position.   And I've said many times i am not a scout, I could be wrong and hope I am.

 

Still with all of that who was the dude posting some clippings on the Payne thread showing some of the holes that existed as to stopping the run last season and how I think Payne will help improve that?  Nuance. 

 

13 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

sorry but to my eyes - we have some very very good players on the roster and it irritates me to no end that you constantly feel the need to trash anyone in a Redskins jersey to  prop other people up . 

 

 

Another wildly off base comment.  Give me this list of players I am trashing.   And by that I don't mean based on your imagination.  I talked today about improving TE blocking when they run the Duo -- you turn that into me wanting to release Jordan Reed. Talk about again lack of nuance.  I have to then explain to you on a post that I said nothing about releasing Jordan Reed, I didn't even come close to implying it -- let alone I've probably posted about 15 times this month about how the Redskins make the playoffs if Jordan is healthy including on this very thread.  

 

I was impressed with Skinny21's knowledge of my positions in response to your post.  He has paid attention.   People don't have to pay attention to what I say but if they are going to put a label on my views then they need to at least have a working knowledge of them -- which you don't have.

 

13 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

The things specifically the age and Smiths legs are things you have been parrotting in almost ever post as to why Alex was a bad idea - But has it not occurred to you Alex knows this and he is evolving his game as most running QBs have tried to do at some point with varying degrees of success - G

 

I give what OTHERS say about Alex and for that matter Kirk, positive and negative.  So you highlight just the negative on Alex.  And you highlight that opinion squarely on me as if its mine.  You talk about tough to talk nuance.  Here is a textbook example of you going out of your way to avoid nuance and focus on the negatives.

 

I've flat out said a zillion times I LIKE Alex Smith.  I think he's a good QB.  I even said if it was just Alex Smith alone on this team and we isolate him as a sole variable -- I think he's a playoff caliber QB.  I've stated on this thread and others a million times about what I didn't like about the trade.   And that is giving up your player/draft capital for a veteran for a roster that I don't think is Superbowl ready -- couple that with one of the best QB drafts in memory taking place.

 

And guess what even on the Alex Smith trade, I actually went through this scenario BEFORE they acquired Alex.  I went through all scenarios I liked and this was my least favorite one. 

 

13 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

Also your comments put all of the blame on Smith for the failings or falling away of the Chiefs in 2017 - 

 

Ridiculous. I said no such thing.

 

13 hours ago, bedlamVR said:

 

SIP you are a great poster and i enjoy reading what you say - and generally i disagree with most of what you say and the way you will find specific sources to act as an echo chamber to support and shield your opinion - while appearing (and it is - as i say a perception) to dismiss anything or any ignoring  other sources that dispute you. . 

 

 

Thanks but you got a funny way of showing it.  This isn't the first time you've grossly misrepresented my views in an outlandish way, some are flat out made up accusations with no basis in anything I said.   So if you are going to lecture me about how I shouldn't dismiss sources that dispute me -- that point means very little to me coming from you because you often have no conception of what I think let alone what disputes it. 

 

Reading your post -- if it helps here are the cliff notes versions of my thoughts that I've expounding on plenty on this thread and others.   And yes there is plenty of nuance in the mix.

 

Alex Smith -- Nuance

A. I like Alex Smith -- I think he's a good QB

B. I think Alex Smith is a playoff caliber QB

C.  Some pundit types (including one just a second ago on 106.7 think Kirk is better, some think Alex is better) count me among those that are fascinated by the story and really don't know how this will play out until it plays out.  I think they are similar QBs who will be tested this season

D.  I don't like the trade.  That has ALL, EVERYTHING to do with Alex's age (not the player himself) coupled with the Redskins roster match up.

E. I worry about EVERY QB who enters their mid 30s who relies on their legs

F.  It is perfectly plausible to me that people's wildest expectations about Alex come true.  It's just plausible to me it won't come true as well.  I need to see that movie play out.  I think you can argue it either way. 

G.  The comments about Jay versus A. Reid were said by some observers (not me).  And those comments were made with nuance to them as well -- as to both being good play callers with different strengths but I won't go into it out of fear that something will be taken out of context.  

 

I personally have said a gazillion times -- the strength of this team has been the play caller (Jay) and the QB (then Kirk now Alex).  I am easily one of the more pro Jay people on the board.

 

 

[JaxJoe]

On 7/4/2018 at 8:26 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

B. Negative people: He will stress out with the burden of being the guy.  Keenum was underestimated.  Kirk won't be an improvement over him  Minny and Kirk get exposed. Minny likely going deep in the playoffs does Kirk have the moxie to play well under pressure. 

Another negative aspect are thise Minny teammates who are loyal to Keenum and a bit hostile to the new guy. Also, Kirk’s other teammates who are on the fence about spending millions on a QB that only had one winning season. I think if the first few games go poorly, it could implode. That’s the pressure I think is greatest on Kirk. 

 

Alex wont have that type of pressure here. It sounds like he’s warmly recieved already and there’s several compliments on his leadership. 

[oraphus]

11 minutes ago, JaxJoe said:

 

 

Alex wont have that type of pressure here. It sounds like he’s warmly recieved already and there’s several compliments on his leadership. 

 

You're in denial if you think Alex doesn't have similar pressure here... He was brought it and paid very well to make Skins competitive right away. If he plays poorly the first few games here, things might go south in a hurry. Everything is always rosy before the pads come on...Players are most loyal to winning.

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, JaxJoe said:

Another negative aspect are thise Minny teammates who are loyal to Keenum and a bit hostile to the new guy. Also, Kirk’s other teammates who are on the fence about spending millions on a QB that only had one winning season. I think if the first few games go poorly, it could implode. That’s the pressure I think is greatest on Kirk. 

 

Alex wont have that type of pressure here. It sounds like he’s warmly recieved already and there’s several compliments on his leadership. 

 

If there is pent up frustration about Kirk with Minny players I've not seen anything public on that front.  But who knows?

 

I watched a lot about Keenum on hard knocks -- seems like a cool guy, it was entertaining to watch him and his girl friend at the time rehearse the playbook.  

 

I've watched every interview I can find from Alex.  I've met Kirk a couple of times including having my kids do his QB camp for a full weekend.   

 

The one thing I think all three of them have in common is in my view they are all cool/classy people.  So I suspect they will all get on swimmingly with their teammates.

 

I am sort of rare breed on this topic in that I like all three guys versus feel competitive with one over another -- unless they play the Redskins.  Then I just want to win.  IMO they are all are tough to root against. 

 

Keenum I feel bad for because he was more or less discarded as not good enough after not taking the Vikings to the Superbowl.  I think that's harsh.  But he's seen by some as a journeyman who got lucky with a good supporting cast.  With Kirk he's got some doubters -- combination of mostly scorned Redskins fans and national pundit types who think he's good not great -- some question if he has that moxie to win a SB and doesn't deserve the money.  With Alex, you got "some" national pundits who think he's just a game manager and inferior to Kirk, some who covered him in KC who doesn't see him as clutch or capable of taking a team to the Superbowl.

 

The irony is Keenum is seen by many of the pundit types as the inferior QB of the three but the players voted Keenum well above both Kirk and Alex.  And yeah I don't take the top 100 player that seriously.  

 

What do I think of all three?

 

I think Alex is somewhere between good to very good.  I am somewhere between the people that IMO are giving him over the top praise to the ones who aren't in love with the dude.  I see both points.  If Alex was 30 instead of 34, I'd lean positive.  But at his age, I am neutral as to the idea that 2017 is his new normal.  I suspect he has a least 2 more really good years in him.   

 

I think Kirk is very good.  Does the pressure of having a roster that loaded get to you?  Going to a team where making a championship game isn't seen as enough.  Wow.  Talk about an expectation change from here to his new team.  How Kirk reacts to it is a wildcard to me.  I agree with those who say he might have the most pressure but Alex to me isn't that far behind on that front for different reasons.

 

Keenum arguably by far has the least pressure.  Expectations not that high.  Denver clearly has a great defense.  He's arguably the Cinderella story in the mix of the three.  I think Keenum is good but not great.