Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[bakedtater1]

5 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

Can’t wait for Smith to out rush Wentz and make the critical 3rd down scrambles, throws on run and provide leadership on big moments. 

 

Excited to see what Jay brings out in Smith. It appears they align personality wise very well. I like the idea of both having a lot to prove and a chip on their respective shoulders moving forward. The previous statement it would seem is true, but both appear to have tremendous self perceived value and have great life balance/perspective (Yes, I don’t believe Kirk had this and was incredibly insecure). 

 

These factors will hopefully make a difference in and off the field for the entire team. 

I love grudens quotes about Smith being the smartest qb he's been around..kinda sounds like he'll be able to get more out of him..

[Die Hard]

16 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

I love grudens quotes about Smith being the smartest qb he's been around..kinda sounds like he'll be able to get more out of him..

 

I think the relationship between Gruden-Smith is actually setup perfect for success.

 

Gruden is on in the hot seat. This team needs to win now. He’s not tied to a young developmental QB. He’s going to open up the playbook and call aggressively because he has nothing to lose. He’s going to leave it all out on the field this year.

 

He doesn’t have a QB situation with uncertainty, playing for a contract and not taking risks (throwing to covered receivers). Smith is going to his last destination. He’s going to a franchise that wanted him, traded for him. Gave him a big extension. And a veteran team. He’s been given the green light to throw deep and into coverage. He has the full support of his head coach. He doesn’t have a young highly drafted QB in waiting trying to take his place. There’s no pressure. He’s the man. He’s going into a situation of the last few seasons of his career, he just wants to win. So he’s goIng to be aggressive.

 

As Gruden has said, he needs to win in week 1. This should be an exciting season for us all. It might go down in a ball of flames... but I don’t care as long as they start being aggressive and playing to win.

 

 

 

[LApunkrocker72]

I'm looking forward to seeing Smith lead the offense.  If Smith stays healthy and plays to expectations, he could be the best QB the Redskins have had since Theismann. 

[bakedtater1]

Remember the season we were expecting Crowder to have after the pretty good season he had? Here Comes That season, I think with Alex Smith Crowder will explode onto the scene..

[Bifflog]

Nice stat here for our guy if you're into advanced metrics, worth a read.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pff-qb-grading-most-effective-tool-there-is?utm_content=buffer1028f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl

[DJHJR86]

 

 

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Was Alex Smith the product of Tyreek Hill, or vice versa?

 

What came first, the Alex Smith who was a successful deep passer, or the Alex Smith who had Tyreek Hill on his roster? That question is going to be put to the test in 2018, as Smith will still be a quarterback, only he’ll be one without Hill, one of the league’s fastest receivers.

 

The easy way to look at that is that Smith, always known as a dink-and-dunker, became prolific as a deep passer when he got Hill.

But is it true? Here’s a big one: In 2017, Hill had a 131.4 passer rating on deep passes, tops in the league. Take out every single attempt to Hill, and Smith’s deep-ball passer rating was … 126.6 — or still the best in the league on deep passes. Hill helped, but Smith was a deep-ball success without him (hat tip to PFF’s Mark Chichester for that tidbit, because he’s cleverer with stats than I am).

 

 

 

 

Smith also attempted the most deep passes of his Kansas City career in 2017 — 62, bettering his previous high of 46 in 2016. So, point in Hill’s favor: Smith averaged 35 deep attempts per year in his three years in Kansas City pre-Hill, and 54 per season with Hill. The flip side of that, of course, is that Hill could have been any warm body at wide receiver....Prior to Tyreek Hill’s arrival in Kansas City, this was an offense that leaned on the running back (namely, Jamaal Charles) with help from a tight end (Travis Kelce) and a wide receiver in Maclin who has never been known for his deep-ball acumen. Yes, Hill helped Smith’s deep production, but you could easily argue any deep-ball specialist receiver would have done so.

 

From 2007 to 2016, 38 quarterbacks topped 1,000 yards on deep passes in a season. Removing 2016 Andrew Luck (who didn’t play in 2017) and 2007 Tom Brady (who essentially didn’t play in 2008) leaves 36 quarterbacks who averaged 1,157 yards on deep passes, with 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Check out the chart below:

QBs with 1,000+ yards on deep passes, 2007-2016
	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs	INTs
Year 1	77.1	32.8	1156.7	10.4	4
Year 2	67.4	25	878.9	7.5	4

 

That’s a drop of almost 300 deep yards a year, just by simple attrition. Smith in Washington is unlikely to reach 1,344 deep yards in 2018, but Smith anywhere (including Kansas City) wasn’t likely to do that again.

 

Did Tyreek Hill help make Alex Smith a fantasy success in 2017? Sure, of course. But this was a player having his career year either way. Don’t expect Josh Doctson to be Tyreek Hill in 2018, but don’t call Alex Smith a bust if that’s the case.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-was-alex-smith-the-product-of-tyreek-hill-or-vice-versa

 

*******************

 

So if I get this right...QBs who have the types of year throwing long passes that Smith had in 2017 end up not having a similar year the following season (on average)...so even if Smith stayed with the Chiefs and still had Hill, Hunt and Kelce, he was unlikely to repeat those same numbers because it's rare for QBs to do so.

 

EDIT: this was also written before the Redskins signed Richardson.

[Spaceman Spiff]

On 6/24/2018 at 12:03 PM, Die Hard said:

 

I think the relationship between Gruden-Smith is actually setup perfect for success.

 

Gruden is on in the hot seat. This team needs to win now. He’s not tied to a young developmental QB. He’s going to open up the playbook and call aggressively because he has nothing to lose. He’s going to leave it all out on the field this year.

 

He doesn’t have a QB situation with uncertainty, playing for a contract and not taking risks (throwing to covered receivers). Smith is going to his last destination. He’s going to a franchise that wanted him, traded for him. Gave him a big extension. And a veteran team. He’s been given the green light to throw deep and into coverage. He has the full support of his head coach. He doesn’t have a young highly drafted QB in waiting trying to take his place. There’s no pressure. He’s the man. He’s going into a situation of the last few seasons of his career, he just wants to win. So he’s goIng to be aggressive.

 

As Gruden has said, he needs to win in week 1. This should be an exciting season for us all. It might go down in a ball of flames... but I don’t care as long as they start being aggressive and playing to win.

 

 

 

 

God dammit.  Every year I try not to get my hopes up.  I was going great until I just read this post.  

[Califan007 The Constipated]

PFF Grading: The most effective quarterback evaluation method out there

 

*That's not my title lol...

 

 

 

 

 

Here’s how the NFL stacked up in big-time throws and turnover-worthy throws in 2017:

 

 

 

 

Patriots QB Tom Brady and Chiefs QB Alex Smith had the best BTT/TWP (Big Time Throws / Turnover-Worthy Throws) ratios this season as they were the only two quarterbacks to rank in the top five in both categories.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pff-qb-grading-most-effective-tool-there-is?utm_content=buffer1028f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl

[HardcoreZorn]

I am absolutely fascinated to see how Alex Smith in Washington plays out. Is he one of those guys who just gets better with age and last year was a glimpse of what he can be when he lets it rip a little more? Or was it a fluke and he comes crashing back down to earth. I could see it going either way really but I think Gruden could potentially help him to some of his best years. And the dynamic @Die Hard mentioned is a great point. Gruden has to win now and Smith is coming off his best year. Could be a match made in heaven where Smith continues to let her rip a little more and we win to save Gruden’s job.

[wit33]

It’s not just Alex Smith that made strides last year and had his first 4K passing season. Smith also became the 1st 4K passer in an Andy Reid offense. Reid I believe realized opening up his offense was needed to win in the NFL today. 

 

Beyond excited to see how Smith does with Gruden. 

[DJHJR86]

15 hours ago, Califan007 said:

So if I get this right...QBs who have the types of year throwing long passes that Smith had in 2017 end up not having a similar year the following season (on average)...so even if Smith stayed with the Chiefs and still had Hill, Hunt and Kelce, he was unlikely to repeat those same numbers because it's rare for QBs to do so.

 

EDIT: this was also written before the Redskins signed Richardson.

 

Over the course of 10 years (2005-2015), Smith had exactly 5 300+ yard passing games.  He had 6 in the 2016-17 seasons.  Yards are not the be all end all of course, but with a team that has relied on the passing game so much over the past 3 seasons, I don't see how this shouldn't be a red flag to fans.  His sack percentage (career) is almost double what Cousins is.  I get that he doesn't turn the ball over.  Neither does Tyrod Taylor.  Who we could have got (theoretically) without trading away Fuller.  

[CTskin]

59 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Over the course of 10 years (2005-2015), Smith had exactly 5 300+ yard passing games.  He had 6 in the 2016-17 seasons.  Yards are not the be all end all of course, but with a team that has relied on the passing game so much over the past 3 seasons, I don't see how this shouldn't be a red flag to fans.  His sack percentage (career) is almost double what Cousins is.  I get that he doesn't turn the ball over.  Neither does Tyrod Taylor.  Who we could have got (theoretically) without trading away Fuller.  

So you're a big Alex Smith fan... If you're even "theoretically" comparing Alex Smith to Tyrod Taylor, you need to come up with a new system.

 

I don't think anyone would contest that Alex Smith received a healthy stat boost when he was given Tyreek Hill... just like how Cousins had a dropoff after DJax left. Look at career numbers and you'll see that Alex Smith is the model of consistency. You can expect a QB rating in the 90s and a man who will lead your team with authority. I like that a lot.

[Reaper Skins]

All that stat shows me is that even if Tyreek Hill wasn't specifically targeted with the ball, the defense still had to account for him, and it left other players open to make plays that didn't exist before Hill was on the roster.

[DJHJR86]

Smith also had the benefit of Hunt, who averaged 4.7 YPA and led the league in rushing.  Hopefully Guice can put up comparable numbers.  I think this year hinges on Reed's health, and Guice's potential.  

[NoCalMike]

Alex Smith's deep ball production improved with Tyreek Hill? Wow, in-depth analysis there.  I am willing to bet Cousins's deep ball improved when D-Jax was in Washington too?

 

So let me try to put the pattern together as an amateur msgboard sports journalist.  Having a speedy WR that can take the top off a defense, improves a QB's deep ball production!

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, Reaper Skins said:

All that stat shows me is that even if Tyreek Hill wasn't specifically targeted with the ball, the defense still had to account for him, and it left other players open to make plays that didn't exist before Hill was on the roster.

 

Or that he had no true deep threat in his career until the last two years. 

[HOF44]

I think unless Guice can go off for 1300+ rushing Smith is gonna have a long year in DC.

[The Hangman- C_Hanburger]

5 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

I think unless Guice can go off for 1300+ rushing Smith is gonna have a long year in DC.

Meaning he will be playing in January

 

[HOF44]

2 minutes ago, The Hangman- C_Hanburger said:

Meaning he will be playing in January

 

Without a GREAT rushing performance from Guice I see him hurt by the halfway point.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of Smith/Gruden and the new pieces to the offense.

 

But I do find the Alex Smith defense counsel to be eerily similar to how it’s been with fans with practically every new piece since the beginning of time.

 

I get it - nobody wants it to suck.  It’s June and all.

 

I just literally have no idea what to expect nor can I even begin to pretend that I know the ins and outs of why Smith is different than anyone before him.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

5 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Over the course of 10 years (2005-2015), Smith had exactly 5 300+ yard passing games.  He had 6 in the 2016-17 seasons.  Yards are not the be all end all of course, but with a team that has relied on the passing game so much over the past 3 seasons, I don't see how this shouldn't be a red flag to fans.  His sack percentage (career) is almost double what Cousins is.  I get that he doesn't turn the ball over.  Neither does Tyrod Taylor.  Who we could have got (theoretically) without trading away Fuller.  

 

I have no idea whatsoever what point you're trying to make here lol...

 

Is it that Smith shouldn't be considered good at deep passing game? Is it that his ability to protect the ball is his only noteworthy skill while the rest of his game is average at best? Is it that we could get the same production from Tyrod Taylor this year that we'll most likely get from Smith because...um...both are good at protecting the ball?

 

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of Smith/Gruden and the new pieces to the offense.

 

But I do find the Alex Smith defense counsel to be eerily similar to how it’s been with fans with practically every new piece since the beginning of time.

 

I get it - nobody wants it to suck.  It’s June and all.

 

I just literally have no idea what to expect nor can I even begin to pretend that I know the ins and outs of why Smith is different than anyone before him.

 

 

Is there a reason you only seem to notice the "Alex Smith defense counsel" posts as worthy of questioning?

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 hours ago, HOF44 said:

Without a GREAT rushing performance from Guice I see him hurt by the halfway point.  

 

Why? Because he'll be playing behind a worse O-Line? Because he's not smart in determining when to run or doesn't keep his eyes downfield? Because he has shown he injures easily? Because he doesn't read defenses quickly or his release is slow?

 

[HardcoreZorn]

Andy Reid on McNabb trade back in 2010:

 

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2010/4/4/1405409/andy-reid-post-mcnabb-trade-press
 

Quote

We thought this was best for Donovan and obviously the compensation was right. Obviously we thought through this like we do every move that we make. This will be a good situation for Donovan and also I would say is a good situation for Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins. They've acquired a tremendous football player and I will always with Donovan the best of luck with the exception of two weeks during the year.

 

We sat back and listened to offers. We listened to offers on all three quartebracks and it just became evident with time that this is the why we were going to go. The compensation was right so we felt good about it.

 

Trading w/ in the division:

You can't say that we didn't think about that. We did. This is a decision we thought was best for Donovan and at the same time the compensation was right for us. WE surely took into consideration Donvoan's feelings here too.

 

On Redskins being better:

Well, listen. Are they a better football team w/ Donovan? Absolutely. But again we'll be there a couple sundays with him and we'll see how things go at that time.

 

 

Andy Reid on Alex Smith trade:

 

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/27/andy-reid-kansas-city-chiefs-coaches-breakfast/

Quote

 

“He has had a lot of different coordinators, so he has experienced a lot of different offenses,” Reid said of Smith, 33, the top overall pick of the 2005 NFL draft, whose first five seasons were spent amid the tumult of the San Francisco 49ers before flourishing in Kansas City. “I think there is still room to grow, and he’s wired that way to where he wants to get better every day and you love that part of him.”

 

“He’s unbelievably easy to coach,” Reid said. “I’ve told our young guy (second-year quarterback) Patrick Mahomes that he could have bought Alex a castle, and that wasn’t enough to just be in that (quarterback) room with him.”

 

“We wanted to make sure that he went someplace that he could win and that he was going to be well coached, in an offense that kind of fits what he does,” Reid said. “I think Jay (Gruden) is a phenomenal offensive mind. And, as I’ve said, you’re not gonna run out of gigabytes with Alex. He has got great capacity to learn and then to take it on the field and be able to do. And so, I thought that, out of the teams we were talking to, that was a great match for him.”

Asked why he felt an obligation to deal Smith to a team that would best suit him, Reid said: “I felt like I owed that to him for what he did for us. He was phenomenal for the Chief organization. And he’s a great guy. Once you’re around him here a little bit, you’ll understand why I think that. Top-notch — both he and his wife. Good people.”

“I thought it was kind of a win-win for both sides, which doesn’t happen very often in this league,” Reid said. “I thought it was great for the Redskins, and I think it’s gonna be great for us.”

 

 

Stumbled upon these doing a little digging trying to compare the Smith and McNabb trades since Reid was the coach for both at the time of the deal. And I have to say, there is a pretty noticeable difference in terms of how he describes each trade. He seemed much more willing to go out of his way to praise Smith than he did when McNabb was on his way out the door in 2010. Could mean nothing, or could mean something. It could mean he has tremendous respect for Smith as a person which influences how he talks about him as a football player. Or could mean he really does believe in Smith the football player.

 

Just found it interesting is all and thought it was some good material to chew on. The McNabb presser comes off as purely coach speak and propping up McNabb while he's on his way out. The Smith interview comes off way different and does give me the belief he may have a few really good seasons left in the tank. One can hope.

 

 

 

[DJHJR86]

34 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

 

I have no idea whatsoever what point you're trying to make here lol...

 

Is it that Smith shouldn't be considered good at deep passing game? Is it that his ability to protect the ball is his only noteworthy skill while the rest of his game is average at best? Is it that we could get the same production from Tyrod Taylor this year that we'll most likely get from Smith because...um...both are good at protecting the ball?

 

Pretty much yes to all of these.  I'd say Smith is being overrated by a ton of people still bitter over the whole Cousins saga, while he's also being underrated by those other fans who are bitter at the organization for not signing Cousins.  I think we've downgraded at the QB position, but we've upgraded at RB and defense (2 things not afforded to Cousins).  I do think that we could have traded for Taylor (without losing Fuller), and still be looked at as a competitive team with a consistent QB who doesn't turn the ball over.  I refuse to buy into a guy who 2 years ago, his team gave up picks to move up and take a QB in the first round.  We've been fleeced before in trades like this.  IMO, I don't see the optimism for a guy who has to have a team around him to excel (of which ours is currently a big question mark).  At this point, for me anyway, it's best to remain cautiously optimistic.