Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[wit33]

Alex is an elite game manager  See what I did there. 

 

Dak is a below average to average game manager. 

 

Both will be anywhere between 8-25 ranked QB depending on team, scheme/talent of coach, fortuitous bounces etc..

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Smith has been above average, only just, so far this season. But the margins are fine at QB. He's going at 10-15% down on last year. That's still enough to keep us competitive which is what he has done the majority of the time this season. 

 

Thats his rep. Just need to find that extra 10-15% in his game. Not the worst situation by any means 6 games in.

 

Massive statement game Sunday though. For both him and Gruden.

 

 

 

 

I've heard enough things from segments via beat guys to be convinced that people in that building including Jay think he's been below average let alone above average.  But there is optimism that Alex and Jay will figure it out and get it right.  In short, I do not think they see this as this is who Alex is -- he's an acquired taste and soon people will jump on board and see things they love that others are missing thus far.  Instead, its we didn't sign up for this -- its been a disappointing start.   But it will get better. 

 

I am saying this because some here seem to suggest that Alex has been fine and people are overreacting.  My take listening to Keim, Hoffman, Finlay heck even Doug himself that they don't think Alex has been fine.  but they are hoping and expect it will be fixed going forward. 

[zCommander]

Food for thought...

 

 Alex Smith currently ranks 27th with a 40.5 completion percentage on passes traveling 15-plus air yards, including 0-for-6 when targeting Doctson on those throws.

[JSSkinz]

If Alex were just being Alex then that would be ok, but when you see him clearly rattled to the point where he bails on the pocket early, misses wide open receivers, and has had an obvious drop off in speed, it now resets his value as a QB, IMO.

 

But we are 4-2 which is why I only ****ed immediately after the game and have stayed away from the intense hate throughout the week.

 

As long as we keep winning that's all that matters and yes I think Alex will get better because there's nowhere to go but up.

[skinny21]

9 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

If Alex were just being Alex then that would be ok, but when you see him clearly rattled to the point where he bails on the pocket early, misses wide open receivers, and has had an obvious drop off in speed, it now resets his value as a QB, IMO.

 

But we are 4-2 which is why I only ****ed immediately after the game and have stayed away from the intense hate throughout the week.

 

As long as we keep winning that's all that matters and yes I think Alex will get better because there's nowhere to go but up.

First of all, good post.  Secondly, you make a great point that I hope some of the people defending Smith vociferously realize... if Smith were playing like he normally does (not talking 2017 even), there’d be a lot fewer concerns.  

 

Now, @Skinsinparadise has quoted some of the concerns about Smith’s ‘normal’ play - the happy feet, coming off his reads and looking to bail/run too quickly.  I can handle those things, even if it’s disappointing, as long as his overall play is a net positive for the offense/team.  As of now though, the best we can really do is to tout the limited negative plays.  

 

Checkdowns and the like can still work quite well, particularly if the ground game (and D) is playing well.  Sub-60% completion rate is going to stall a lot of drives over the course of the season though.  Not the most important stat, but it’s an area he can absolutely get better in... and I expect him to.  

 

While I would tend to agree that there’s nowhere to go but up from here, you mentioned previously the 6 fumbles.  We/he have gotten some luck there.  Considering how games can turn on a single play, I’m really hoping that luck holds.  

 

I just cannot understand being happy with his performance to date though.  I mean, people have complained about Preston and Kerrigan’s lack of production on a defense that is playing really well.  So sure, the team is winning, but it’s a stretch to see Smith’s play as a major factor for the success.  Obviously, he’ll get more time to get it together (as he should), but it does concern me that we’re in this position (of dealing with a qb’s growing pains), with a 14 year vet.  

[PF Chang]

49 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I just cannot understand being happy with his performance to date though.  I mean, people have complained about Preston and Kerrigan’s lack of production on a defense that is playing really well.  So sure, the team is winning, but it’s a stretch to see Smith’s play as a major factor for the success.  Obviously, he’ll get more time to get it together (as he should), but it does concern me that we’re in this position (of dealing with a qb’s growing pains), with a 14 year vet.  

 

The people happy with Smith's performance are the ones who insisted throughout the offseason that Cousins isn't a good QB and that Smith would be a lateral move at the absolute worst. They were wrong and will either stop posting about it or will double down forever, since I guess it's better to just be wrong over and over again rather than admitting that maybe, just maybe, they didn't have this one right. 

 

I'm happy with the defense and running game. The frustrating thing is that with last year's offense (plus AP) and this year's defense, I'd consider us a serious threat to win it all. Look at the Eagles this year, you don't have to be a dynasty in the making to get lucky one year. They did it with a dominant DL which we seem to have this year. 

[wit33]

@PF Chang @skinny21

 

Literally have not read one person state being happy with Alex’s performance on this thread. It’s a non issue, fans being happy with how Alex is performing. 

[tmandoug1]

Disagree.... Smith went out of bounds on that play...bad mistake... Cousins would have done the old sack fumble with a touchdown to boot. 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

@PF Chang @skinny21

 

Literally have not read one person state being happy with Alex’s performance on this thread. It’s a non issue, fans being happy with how Alex is performing. 

Not to be snarky, but, sure.  I guess.  I mean... I’d bet there are some happy with Smith because of either his low turnover rate, and/or because the team’s win loss record has become a point of pride about how they believe Smith is better than Cousins (with some nuance depending on the poster).  There are those quick to jump in to defend his level of play.  Whether it’s pertaining to “would we be better off with___”, or in terms of who deserves credit for the wins, etc.  But deep down, happy with his performance?  Maybe/probably not.  I don’t know.  

 

 

 

I’d assume the vast majority though are in the camp of - he’s not losing us games, which is cool, but he 1) has a lot of room for improvement, 2) but he has shown an ability to play at a higher level, and 3) should be expected to improve as he continues to adjust to the team.  

 

I still believe #3, but I’ve got a touch of skepticism now.  

[Renegade7]

4 hours ago, zskins said:

Food for thought...

 

 Alex Smith currently ranks 27th with a 40.5 completion percentage on passes traveling 15-plus air yards, including 0-for-6 when targeting Doctson on those throws.

This is unacceptable for someone we gave that kind of extension to.  I feel Bruce should be tied to Alex Smith given he chose him over Cousins.

[wit33]

@skinny21

 

I got you and don’t totally disagree.

 

It’s hard not to be happy with the turnover differential to date, right? It’s a stat that continues to stand the test of time as a strong indicator of winning or losing. It’s okay to acknowledge strengths while also understanding gains are needed in passing game from Alex. This seems to be the overwhelming theme by most on this thread, outside of the few agenda driven personalities on here looking to bash Alex  

 

 

 

 

[Commander -JB-]

You know what I’m happy about?

 

 Alex Smith 1-0 Vs Cowboys. Kirk Cousins 1-6 Vs Cowboys.

 

I find a silver lining in anything.  Try me ?

[Ümann]

31 minutes ago, -JB- said:

You know what I’m happy about?

 

 Alex Smith 1-0 Vs Cowboys. Kirk Cousins 1-6 Vs Cowboys.

 

I find a silver lining in anything.  Try me ?

 

Bruce Allen, is that u ?

[Darrell Green Fan]

On 10/23/2018 at 4:46 PM, HardcoreZorn said:

All of this would make so much more sense to me if Kirk won even a single playoff game. Just one. Or in 2016 with the red carpet rolled out didn't fall flat on his face with a golden chace for back to back playoff years. I watched him this past week, he looks exactly the same to me. Was terrible on 3rd down and in the redzone. One game I know, but I certainly didn't come away thinking "OH MY GOD, how did we lose this guy." He's a good quarterback who can rack up some nice chunk yardage and his stat line at the end of the day always looks pretty. But I just will never understand this over the top infatuation about the guy.

 

Ironically enough, I went back to the Cousins thread started after the 2016 season and over half the fans (a lot still posting on here) were fine with paying him, but somewhere in the 22-24M range. Which we all know would have never stopped him from signing that franchise tender and getting to FA, his ultimate goal all long. Another segment didn't want to pay him at all and then the rest said back up the brinks truck and do what you have to do. That's exactly how I remembered it too, but thought I was losing my sanity for a moment. Anyways, it's interesting how that narrative has changed over time. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Where they really messed up was thinking he would eventually cave instead of recouping proper value for him.

 

 

 

He is better and younger than our current QB, who also cost us a good young corner and a 3rd. In 3 years the Vikes will still have a productive QB where the Redskins will try their luck in the draft, the same draft that produced the names Heath Shuler, Jason Campbell, Patrick Ramsey and Robert Griffin.  

[Koolblue13]

On 10/23/2018 at 9:39 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Cooley is far from perfect and heck he doesn't always say what I want to hear -- for example I liked RG3 in 2014 but Cooley was killing him on film and he was proven right.  Cooley has called a number of guys in film for struggling who were then subsequently released.  So I trust Cooley albeit he's not perfect.  The drum beat-criticism he has on Alex is skittishness in the pocket, he's afraid to get hit so its effecting him sticking with his reads and feet work.  

 

Cooley seems to be suggesting if Alex calms down in the pocket it would fix it.

That's my take. I think a lot of it comes from moving Chase to guard as well. That's been the biggest mistake we've made this year.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

7 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

This seems to be the overwhelming theme by most on this thread, outside of the few agenda driven personalities on here looking to bash Alex  

 

Yes, because folks are searching far and wide to make excuses to bash Alex.  Nothing to do with his play at all.

 

You were doing okay until you had to throw that in at the end.  If folks have an agenda, Alex has done a swell job of helping them fulfill it.

[wit33]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

Yes, because folks are searching far and wide to make excuses to bash Alex.  Nothing to do with his play at all.

 

You were doing okay until you had to throw that in at the end.  If folks have an agenda, Alex has done a swell job of helping them fulfill it.

 

Im with you. Alex has been overall underwhelming to date. Does it merit Colt McCoy discussion, not in the least. If you have suggested this, you’re part of the extremists and Smith will never be what you want. I promise you will always have ability to poke holes in Smiths game, due to him being average to above. That ain’t changing. 

 

I respect you being transparent about your thoughts and not speaking vaguely. Seriously. The position you have chosen early will make it increasingly difficult to come around on Alex. Not that you should or shouldn’t, especially not to date if you didn’t like him coming in. 

 

I imagine you alone will provide a few hours of escapism for me in the coming months through reading and responding, a net positive no matter your position. Lol

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

52 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Im with you. Alex has been overall underwhelming to date. Does it merit Colt McCoy discussion, not in the least. If you have suggested this, you’re part of the extremists and Smith will never be what you want. I promise you will always have ability to poke holes in Smiths game, due to him being average to above. That ain’t changing. 

 

I respect you being transparent about your thoughts and not speaking vaguely. Seriously. I’d feel the position you have chosen early will make it increasingly difficult to come around on Alex. Not that you should or shouldn’t, especially not to date if you didn’t like him coming in. 

 

I imagine you alone will provide a few hours of escapism for in the coming months through reading and responding, a net positive no matter your position. Lol

 

 

I haven’t called for Colt McCoy, however I’ve said and I’m firm that he would have done no worse to this point.   I recognize Alex is not benchable.  Even if Jay wanted to, I don’t think he could.  So, I don’t even think that’s on the table at this point.  

 

That said, Alex can change my opinion on him.  I don’t think he’ll ever shake me of the deep down feeling that this team will never have even the slightest chance to win playoff games on his arm, because that’s most likely what a playoff win will require.  Make no mistake about it, if he dinks it behind AP all the way to playoffs, I’ll enjoy the ride while it lasts.  But I think we all know how the story ends.

 

 

 

[DJHJR86]

12 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Make no mistake about it, if he dinks it behind AP all the way to playoffs, I’ll enjoy the ride while it lasts.  But I think we all know how the story ends.

 

Alex Smith led teams in the playoffs average:
22/36, 61%, 249 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5-14 on 3rd down, and TOP is 31:26

 

Strong running game + good defense is the key to win with him in the playoffs.

[Morneblade]

17 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Smith has been above average, only just, so far this season. But the margins are fine at QB. He's going at 10-15% down on last year. That's still enough to keep us competitive which is what he has done the majority of the time this season. 

 

Thats his rep. Just need to find that extra 10-15% in his game. Not the worst situation by any means 6 games in.

 

Massive statement game Sunday though. For both him and Gruden.

 

 

 

 

Alex has not been average. He's been bad. Not just as a NFL QB, but for Alex Smith. And while he is not a real good QB, he's usually not this bad either. However, if he doesn't have weapons, he's not very good. There are a couple things Alex is doing now that he usually does not. If he can get those fixed, he'll be better, and the team will be better.

 

15 hours ago, zskins said:

Food for thought...

 

 Alex Smith currently ranks 27th with a 40.5 completion percentage on passes traveling 15-plus air yards, including 0-for-6 when targeting Doctson on those throws.

 

This actually is not all that surprising. Last year was a complete turnaround for Smith. He's always been very low in air yards, and has never been that accurate going deep. And with no Tyreek Hill, he's going to be the old AS. That being said, he's been more inaccurate than usual with the shorter passes. His ball placement is usually better than it has been on the short/intermediate stuff. I do expect this to get better. Longer passes, that's likely not really going to get better.

[Tsailand]

Redskins fans "getting behind" Alex Smith

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

10 hours ago, wit33 said:

@skinny21

 

I got you and don’t totally disagree.

 

It’s hard not to be happy with the turnover differential to date, right? It’s a stat that continues to stand the test of time as a strong indicator of winning or losing. It’s okay to acknowledge strengths while also understanding gains are needed in passing game from Alex. This seems to be the overwhelming theme by most on this thread, outside of the few agenda driven personalities on here looking to bash Alex  

 

 

 

 

 

I'm pretty balanced and want Smith to succeed. So I am all about looking for positives or maybe under-the-radar things he's doing that we don't obviously see. But, when it comes to turnovers, he's only thrown 2 interceptions through 6 games so that's good (comfortably on pace for single-digits). But he has fumbled 6 times. So that's 8 times in 6 games he's had a potential turnover. 

 

I don't know what the league average is so I looked at Cousins so far. He has 1 more interception (in 100 more passes, so they have the same INT%) and 2 more fumbles (again, in ~ 100 more dropbacks). They've played one more game than we have. My point...it seems like Smith isn't doing anything different than the last guy when it comes to protecting the ball (or Cousins has gotten much better at it). 

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

Alex has not been average. He's been bad. Not just as a NFL QB, but for Alex Smith. And while he is not a real good QB, he's usually not this bad either. However, if he doesn't have weapons, he's not very good. There are a couple things Alex is doing now that he usually does not. If he can get those fixed, he'll be better, and the team will be better.

 

He's jumpy behind a banged up line and dealing with a shower or **** at receiver, but I'll stick with my notion that an extra 10-15% is all he's out. His strapline stats aren't that far out with that extra improvement factored in. Plus we sit at 4-2 when other QBs may have forced games and missed out on the ugly wins.

 

If that doesn't materialise I'll concede he's flunked because the season will falter fast. Looking forward to Sunday, it should be a good indicator of things to come, good or bad.

 

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

He's jumpy behind a banged up line and dealing with a shower or **** at receiver, but I'll stick with my notion that an extra 10-15% is all he's out. His strapline stats aren't that far out with that extra improvement factored in. Plus we sit at 4-2 when other QBs may have forced games and missed out on the ugly wins.

 

If that doesn't materialise I'll concede he's flunked because the season will falter fast. Looking forward to Sunday, it should be a good indicator of things to come, good or bad.

 

 

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at here. If he's 15% better, he's not bad anymore?

 

Maybe?

 

But he has to get better first, before you can go ahead and say he's playing average..........................and it would have to be more than to be above average.

 

Right now according to QBR, he's 23rd, a far cry from 15 (average) and 21st with the tradition rankings.

 

These are below average. These are not average, or barely above average, which was you initial assertion.

 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at here. If he's 15% better, he's not bad anymore?

 

Maybe?

 

But he has to get better first, before you can go ahead and say he's playing average..........................and it would have to be more than to be above average.

 

Right now according to QBR, he's 23rd, a far cry from 15 (average) and 21st with the tradition rankings.

 

These are below average. These are not average, or barely above average, which was you initial assertion.

 

 

All im saying is, take his stats through 6 games. Extrapolate for the season and add in a 10/15% improvement. Gets him to a 4000 yard season and 100+ QB rating. Puts him easily top ten compared to last years outturn stats for mainstream QB's. Probably also gets the team to 11-5.

 

Bad? I consider that a QB who cracks under pressure and knows how to lose tough/ugly games. Smith isn't great, I get that. But a bad QB doesn't get us to 4-2 irrespective of any other factor. So I think he's been average, very borderline above. 

 

I'm not suggesting it isn't that simple a factor. But....he will generally not lose us many games. Even at average QB play, or bad as you say, we get to 4-2 with a real shot at 5-2. 

 

I do agree though that he needs to improve for us to meaningfully progress. I will leave it at that.