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Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

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3 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

It's OK to be happy for the W, I'm perfectly fine with that. But today we won because the Bucs did their perfect old Redskins impersonation with misseg FG, badly timed Ints and stuff like that.

 

'That's kinda true but as the game was going on, I was thinking about the Alex Smith press conference from this week and had a sense of calm come upon me. I think the question was something like "how does it feel to not have any plays above 25 yards as an offense" and he gave an answer talking about how difficult it is for a team to march down the field on 10 play drives of each play being 3 or 4 yards. Eventually most teams make mistakes. 

 

From the first quarter when people in the game thread were wondering why our DBs were playing so far off, and somebody else said we're afraid of being beat deep, it seemed like we were playing that exact strategy. We're a team of "whoever makes the fewest mistakes wins". Fitz has been Magic this year but as a guy who used to not pick a QB in Fantasy until later rounds, I'd often live and die with Fitz because he'd get you a 300 yard game with no TDs and an INT. Its why he was available this offseason for practically nothing (as a backup QB).

 

Alex Smith is the opposite of that and while 178 yards is not sexy, that TD pass to Doctson was sexy, and that 2 minute drive to close out the first half was sexy (would have been sexier if he got a TD but still...). And the sexiest thing about it is that TB played a game of "if we can stop AP we win this game". Its the same game that GB played and the same game that Atl played. And we lost both those games. So the fact that we were able to still move the ball at all, let alone put up 16 points shows that he's getting better in this offense. 

 

And I want to bring up a string of numbers just for reference: 

(161L, 182W, 88L, 127W, 51L, 34L, 50W, 37L, 209W): 4-5

(2L, 1W, 3L, 1W, 2L, 2L, 1W, 2L, 0W): 4-5

That's Kirk's W/L record through his first 9 games of 2014, but with the rushing stats. We didn't have AP, but we had similar questions at QB. The second line is the (team) turnovers and we're seeing a similar thing: games with 0 or 1 turnover we won, games with 2 or more we lost. 

 

The second half of the season is kinda the same thing, with us unable to win games where they stopped the run. (Here you can say that the bechmark is 50 yards because less than 50 is a loss according to the recordbooks). There's also a ugly loss in there where we had 5 turnovers against Carolina and lost it 44-16. 

 

Alex Smith's formula isn't unique to him. He just executes it well. Do I wish he had more 300+ yard games, or heck even 225 yard games. Sure do. But I think its important to realize that mistake free football (turnovers) and running the ball are two important stats towards winning. 

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10 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Alex Smith's formula isn't unique to him. He just executes it well. Do I wish he had more 300+ yard games, or heck even 225 yard games. Sure do. But I think its important to realize that mistake free football (turnovers) and running the ball are two important stats towards winning. 

Honestly, he’s be having a much better season if he only just hit the guys who were wide open.  Today he missed VD on a throw an NFL QB needs to complete 95% of the time.  

 

My biggest issue at the moment is that he is just missing wide open guys.  If he hits VD on that throw, it might be a TD.  

 

They consustenly leave 10-14 points on the field because of a handful of inaccurate passes.

 

Hes also has a really slow and long windup/release.   Which isn’t that big a deal except he’s got to make quicker decisions, and when he double clutches, most often that’s the end of the play.

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1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Honestly, he’s be having a much better season if he only just hit the guys who were wide open.  Today he missed VD on a throw an NFL QB needs to complete 95% of the time.  

See, I feel like its easy to say that but what about the screen pass to Bibbs for 40 yards that was called back because of a hold against Cooper? What about the drop by Floyd after a 15 yard completion? What about the Completion to Doctson for 20 yards that was called back? 

 

Yeah he would have a better day if not for his mistakes, but he's not the only one making mistakes. Everybody's going to have bad plays, thats why they tell CBs not to have a memory. The thing is that a bad play for Smith is an incompletion where as somebody said in the gameday thread "he throws it so bad that even the other guy can't catch it". But for other QBs (look at Carson on that last drive) a bad throw for him is a missed read and an easy INT for the LB. That's exactly what happened with the INT by Stroman today. It was beautiful but it was a CB reading the QB and making a play. We don't see those kind of mistakes from Smith. 

 

Maybe this is simply a case of a higher floor than other QBs. Not top 10 QB in the league material, but its mistake free football that helps this team to continue to fight for something. 

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@Thinking Skins I don’t disagree at all.  Everybody is making mistakess.  

 

However.  He’s the 13 year veteran QB who we traded a 3rd and a prospect for then paid $95 million for, and part of the expectation is that he hits the guys he throws to.  And honestly, this HASNT been a huge problem for him in the past. So it shouldn’t be a problem now.

 

it’sentirely possible he hits VD in the hands and he drops it. 

 

But hes GOT the put the ball in the right spot more often.  I’m ok if he’s still learning g the offense and that’s part of the hesitation.  But when he’s made a decision, his accuracy has to be better.

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For people dumbfounded on how anyone can see an issue with Alex its the mental mistakes combined with the fact he's leaving chunk plays and possible TD's on the field, if he was doing the "Alex type" things well then there wouldn't be as much heat on him.

Edited by JSSkinz
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@Voice_of_Reason, All true and I'm not making excuses for him. But at some point this becomes like the Doctson discussion or the insert player X that we spent money on. It becomes less about what we gave up for them and more about how they're playing.

 - Heath Shuler wasn't playing like a #3 overall pick, but he also wasn't playing like he belonged in this league.

 - The Gus Bus came in and at least wasn't making the same mistakes so we could ride Terry Allen to a almost playoff record.

 - Brad Johnson was making plays and playing well but we didn't want him back. 

 - Tony Banks was playing Martyball and we were winning the second half of the season but we wanted something splashy

 - Wurfell/Matthews/etc didn't belong in this league

 - Ramsey wasn't ready and we put him behind a non-existant OL and he got brutalized

 - Brunell could barely throw past the line of scrimmage but we were able to ride him to a playoff win

 - Campbell was a guy that got me into a lot of arguments here because he played it safe but with even less of a ceiling than Smith

 

These are all QBs that we had. Its not easy to find a guy who can even do what Smith is doing. I mean, we can talk about who we can't beat but we've lost to Luck, Ryan and Brees this year. Those are three all pro level QBs. Everybody else we're challenging to a game of chicken and Smith doesn't blink. 

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@Thinking Skins again, I don’t disagree.  

 

But it I want him to hit open guys because NFL QBs should be able to do that.

 

Im not even bashing him as hard as others.  But for the love of god, hit the open guy...

7 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

For people dumbfounded on how anyone can see an issue with Alex its the mental mistakes combined with the fact he's leaving chunk plays and possible TD's on the field, if he was doing the "Alex type" things well then there wouldn't be as much heat on him.

Exactly.  He just needs to be better a better him.  Like the guy we’re used to seeing

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3 minutes ago, Leonard Washington said:

What is it about the offense that makes qbs so indecisive? Alex is double and triple clutching.  It’s almost RG3 like. 

 

Said it before, but I think often enough, his targets are not exactly where he expects them to be. I don't think he's dealing with precision route runners out there, and not having spent lots of time with these guys makes him distrustful in the first place. 

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33 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

Said it before, but I think often enough, his targets are not exactly where he expects them to be. I don't think he's dealing with precision route runners out there, and not having spent lots of time with these guys makes him distrustful in the first place. 

I don’t buy it. It’s been 10 weeks, and he hasn’t shown much improvement.   

Edited by Leonard Washington
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7 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Alex Smith is the opposite of that and while 178 yards is not sexy, that TD pass to Doctson was sexy, and that 2 minute drive to close out the first half was sexy (would have been sexier if he got a TD but still...). And the sexiest thing about it is that TB played a game of "if we can stop AP we win this game". Its the same game that GB played and the same game that Atl played. And we lost both those games. So the fact that we were able to still move the ball at all, let alone put up 16 points shows that he's getting better in this offense. 

 

That's my problem with Smith. At times he can deliver great passes and on others missed a wide open Vernon Davis for a TD. At times he can be great at scrambling, something that Kirk rarely did. But at other times you're wondering what is he doing...He's really inconsistent in his play and that's troublesome. If he could get his act together, we would probably be 7-2 right now if not more. 

 

And by the way, we won over GB hey :P 

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10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Honestly, he’s be having a much better season if he only just hit the guys who were wide open.  Today he missed VD on a throw an NFL QB needs to complete 95% of the time.  

 

My biggest issue at the moment is that he is just missing wide open guys.  If he hits VD on that throw, it might be a TD.  

 

They consustenly leave 10-14 points on the field because of a handful of inaccurate passes.

 

Hes also has a really slow and long windup/release.   Which isn’t that big a deal except he’s got to make quicker decisions, and when he double clutches, most often that’s the end of the play.

This exactly.  Two games now that we would have lost if the other team did the basics.  And both games he would have iced them with simple throws that a QB at this level makes routinely.  yesterday hitting Davis and the Dallas game hitting Sprinkle in the endzone for a TD.  At this level you can't miss receivers that open, especially when you have been in this league for so long and you were once the number one pick overall.

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10 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Its the same game that GB played and the same game that Atl played. And we lost both those games.

We actually rolled GB easily. It helps when you have all of your play makers on the field. We need Thompson and Crowder back soon.

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Mods, can we merge the "Let's Get Behind" and "What's Wrong with" Alex Smith threads into a single "The Conundrum of Alex Smith"? 

 

Edit: and the "When Can We Get Out of the Alex Smith Contract" thread

Edited by skinzplay
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8 hours ago, skinzplay said:

Mods, can we merge the "Let's Get Behind" and "What's Wrong with" Alex Smith threads into a single "The Conundrum of Alex Smith"? 

 

Edit: and the "When Can We Get Out of the Alex Smith Contract" thread

It appears your wish was granted.

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Smith's QB rating now is his worst since 2013.

Smith's Completion Percentage is his worst since 2013.

Smith's average yards per completion is his worst since 2013.

 

Not only is that a pattern, but the significance of 2013 is that was his first year in KC.

And after that 1st year, he continued to progress each year in KC, up until last year.

 

What all of that strongly indicates, is that it's a matter of taking time to get comfortable in a new offense.

 

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8 hours ago, skinzplay said:

Mods, can we merge the "Let's Get Behind" and "What's Wrong with" Alex Smith threads into a single "The Conundrum of Alex Smith"? 

 

Edit: and the "When Can We Get Out of the Alex Smith Contract" thread

 

 

i went with a different idea i've been sitting on for awhile :)

 

certainly hope it works for you  :P

 

some animals were harmed in the making

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

 

i went with a different idea i've been sitting on for awhile :)

 

certainly hope it works for you  :P

 

some animals were harmed in the making

 

 

 

 

Thanks for closing the one i started, that was answered in first 5 pages and then became just another punching bag thread.

Edited by Renegade7
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19 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Honestly, he’s be having a much better season if he only just hit the guys who were wide open.  Today he missed VD on a throw an NFL QB needs to complete 95% of the time.  

 

My biggest issue at the moment is that he is just missing wide open guys.  If he hits VD on that throw, it might be a TD.  

 

They consustenly leave 10-14 points on the field because of a handful of inaccurate passes.

 

Hes also has a really slow and long windup/release.   Which isn’t that big a deal except he’s got to make quicker decisions, and when he double clutches, most often that’s the end of the play.

 

This is what gives me hope that we could go from a team who might win a bad division to a team who might make some noise in the playoffs. We are some pretty basic throws away from 10 more PPG. Also, not that stats are important, but Smith's numbers go from a C- to a B- if he hits 1-2 more easy throws. He goes from 180 and 1 TD to 240ish and 2 TDs. 

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9 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Smith's QB rating now is his worst since 2013.

Smith's Completion Percentage is his worst since 2013.

Smith's average yards per completion is his worst since 2013.

 

Not only is that a pattern, but the significance of 2013 is that was his first year in KC.

And after that 1st year, he continued to progress each year in KC, up until last year.

 

What all of that strongly indicates, is that it's a matter of taking time to get comfortable in a new offense.

 

 

 

I think this is a big part of it... and I don't think it's fair to completely overlook it.   That said, we're in a unique position where we changed QBs, we changed offensive philosophy, we've been short 2 key playmakers, we've suffered more and more injuries along the line, and we're still in control of not only our own destiny, but we've got a bead on hosting a playoff game.  Smith and Gruden need to figure out a way to get more production offensively.  Smith needs to get himself more comfortable so he can hit these open throws, and Gruden needs to find a way to get him more comfortable, as well as get better calling plays.  Some of the stuff that I've seen over the last 3 weeks has boggled my mind regarding playcalling and offensive tenancies.  These chances don't just show up for us... we need to try to get the most of it.  

 

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2 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

This is what gives me hope that we could go from a team who might win a bad division to a team who might make some noise in the playoffs. We are some pretty basic throws away from 10 more PPG. Also, not that stats are important, but Smith's numbers go from a C- to a B- if he hits 1-2 more easy throws. He goes from 180 and 1 TD to 240ish and 2 TDs. 

 

Exactly it for me as well. He MUST hit on the plays that are schemed up well.

 

 

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18 hours ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

Said it before, but I think often enough, his targets are not exactly where he expects them to be. I don't think he's dealing with precision route runners out there, and not having spent lots of time with these guys makes him distrustful in the first place. 

He missed a wide open Vernon Davis, a guy he knows and trusts.  If he is anywhere in the vicinity of a catch radius on that throw yesterday it is a TD.  That is how badly Davis beat the coverage.  You lack any semblance of objectivity when it comes to your boy Alex.  

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27 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Smith's QB rating now is his worst since 2013.

Smith's Completion Percentage is his worst since 2013.

Smith's average yards per completion is his worst since 2013.

 

Not only is that a pattern, but the significance of 2013 is that was his first year in KC.

And after that 1st year, he continued to progress each year in KC, up until last year.

 

What all of that strongly indicates, is that it's a matter of taking time to get comfortable in a new offense.

 

Yep, certainly something to take into consideration. Let us also not forget that 3 starters yesterday were not even on the team for the start of training camp. And 2 others were backups.

 

The overthrow the Davis was egregious, that cannot happen. With that said, Smith made some really impressive throws yesterday. The most impressive of the season by far. Some will see 16 points against Tampa and chalk it up as a terrible effort. He still needs to be better, no doubt. But I saw some really positive signs. A few balls to Doctson including the TD, and another throw to Floyd stick out in particular.

 

Very excited to get Trent, Crowder, and CT back. And was super encouraged by the OL replacements, hats off to the evaluators and coaching staff for making it work. Said last week I thought OL injuries may be insurmountable. Maybe not the case.

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