Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[OVCChairman]

14 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I'm stressing patience too, but we do have to separate our record from how our QB is playing. He deserves SOME credit, for sure. But he is also PART of the reason that two games that were very much in-hand over the past two weeks came down to a red zone stop (Carolina) and a missed FG (Dallas). A couple typical Redskin breaks and we are 2-4 and this place is in full meltdown mode. 

 

Absolutely... Smith needs to be better.  The front office ALREADY needs to be planning for his replacement.  I want to see it come via the draft.  Smith is not 'the future' of this franchise.  He is however the starting QB.  He's better than Colt McCoy, and he's better than he's been playing.  A 14 year career tells us that.  He's winning football games.  Is he going to be considered an MVP?  Nope.  Did he make some mistakes?  Yep.  He missed throws, and he absolutely under ANY circumstances, can never be ok with going out of bounds on that 3rd down play.  That is inexcusable and it almost cost us the game... I get it. 

[Morneblade]

6 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

In fairness.. you mentioned he's usually around 65%.. if he completes 2 more passes... the one to Doctson and the one to Sprinkle... he doesn't even get to 65% and we're looking at a walk away win from a division rival.. Nobody is asking him to go 350 / 3 with slinging the ball downfield.  All we're saying, is that he's better than he's been playing, so we feel the panic button should not be pushed.... not yet.  Maybe 250 / 2 is a 'good' game for him.  Well he's had a lot more 'good' games in his career than not 'good'.  Given how this team is built, 250 / 2 / <2 turnovers will get it done a lot more often then not.  This team is not built to gunsling.  We dont have the weapons, so wanting us to take this proverbial cover off the offense and let er' rip wont work.  We can't do that without someone else on the other end of the play to catch the ball.  

 

Couple of things here. First, he really hasn't had "a lot more good games than not good". and while 250 and 2 TD's I think will get it done most days, that's not his "most days". Gruden has already gotten on Smith for not going deep more often, as well as holding the ball too long. Fact of the matter is that guys are getting open deep. Alex however doesn't throw deep unless the guy is VERY open. "The Other Guy" did more with less last year.

 

5 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Makes sense...I guess I'm just saying that if you and I agree that his average is 230 yards per game then it's a little low to feel that his ceiling is 250. But I get your point. You don't mean he can never exceed those numbers, rather his "ceiling sustainable play" is in that range maybe? 

 

Sure, he can have a big day, but it's really rare for Alex because he doesn't take shots. and outside of 17' he's not very accurate when he does. So, it's harder for him to have a breakout game, someone else has to take a short pass (and he doesn't have Hill anymore) and bust it wide open. So while you can say the law of averages state he has to have a big game here and there, his play makes it harder to do than average.

[skinsfan834]

2 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

Are you?

 

We were sold a lot of things this offseason, about how much better Alex was than "The Other Guy". Leadership was one. Well, it's kinda tough to be much of one when you're on three 1 year contracts, as opposed to a 5 year contract. As for all the other stuff, most of it is not showing up either. Smith is not a older version of "The Other Guy", like we were told. He is a game manager that has happy feet, is not a rhythm passer and doesn't take chances. He's always needed a good to great D and really good RB's to succeed.

 

It's funny you mention "even keel". I notice that one of the big issues the offense is tending to have is showing some fire. "The Other Guy" did that, and to be blunt, there are times this team needs a kick in the pants. People are piling on Doctson for "not caring". Alex Smith is about as bad looking. "Staying Medium" isn't always what it's cracked up to be.

 

As for our record, we are 4-2 in spite of Smith. Peterson has lead the offense, and the defense has been the best it's been since we switched to a 3-4 (funny what a NT does). Smith has gone from decent (against what we now know is a terrible Cardinals team) to bad.

 

 

I'm not, but by all public accounts and statements by fellow teammates, Alex Smith has brought a steadying presence to the locker room that has been needed for the past 10 years.

 

You're also now turning this into a Alex vs. Kirk debate which completely deviates from the original point I responded to. Yeah, I don't like that we gave up Kirk and now have Alex -- we completely bumbled that situation. But that was the past and our present situation is that we have Alex Smith as our QB for the next two years a minimum. We invested in him for that time and we might as well give him the opportunity to succeed here, i.e. not give up on him after just six games.

 

We are 4-2, and while you can argue that is despite him, Alex has been controlling the game and hasn't been turning the ball over. He is doing just enough to win and I think we all as Skins fans can hope that he progresses through the year as the team gets healthier and he gets more comfortable in the system. 

 

 

[The Hangman- C_Hanburger]

Funny how the "analysts" were raving about Alex's RO play with Peterson..reading the LB's and working with AD eating the holes like candy. Great camouflaging. The TAPE showed me some great QB work. The game plan didn't stress the WR's. He played within the scheme. It would have been stupid to think he'd work well with the backup WR's playing in that game. Too much risk of TO's. Like Gruden said..he played a field position game and let the D dictate. When they delivered a short field..Alex executed Gruden's plan. What is the PROBLEM??

 

So we are NOW building a dominating D for the future with Younguns...next draft we'll address the O.

 

WE CAN WIN with a suffocating D..don't get fancy. Just WIN Baby!

 

Just cut em some slack. 2 game win streak working on a 3

[OVCChairman]

29 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Couple of things here. First, he really hasn't had "a lot more good games than not good". and while 250 and 2 TD's I think will get it done most days, that's not his "most days". Gruden has already gotten on Smith for not going deep more often, as well as holding the ball too long. Fact of the matter is that guys are getting open deep. Alex however doesn't throw deep unless the guy is VERY open. "The Other Guy" did more with less last year.

 

 

Sure, he can have a big day, but it's really rare for Alex because he doesn't take shots. and outside of 17' he's not very accurate when he does. So, it's harder for him to have a breakout game, someone else has to take a short pass (and he doesn't have Hill anymore) and bust it wide open. So while you can say the law of averages state he has to have a big game here and there, his play makes it harder to do than average.

 

 

Yeah he's gotten on him, and he needs to!  I don't disagree with that... but I just am not willing to accept that what we've seen the last 2 games (against good defenses btw) is the best were gonna see from Alex.  

 

2018-09-09	1	WAS	@	ARI	W 24-6	*	21	30	70.00	255	2	0	118.1	3	8	8.50	9.83	8	14	1.75	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0
2018-09-16	2	WAS		IND	L 9-21	*	33	46	71.74	292	0	0	88.3	3	23	6.35	6.35	4	14	3.50	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2018-09-23	3	WAS		GNB	W 31-17	*	12	20	60.00	220	2	1	110.4	0	0	11.00	10.75	7	20	2.86	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2018-10-08	5	WAS	@	NOR	L 19-43	*	23	39	58.97	275	0	1	69.9	3	31	7.05	5.90	2	7	3.50	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
2018-10-14	6	WAS		CAR	W 23-17	*	21	36	58.33	163	2	0	88.1	3	7	4.53	5.64	6	13	2.17	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2018-10-21	7	WAS		DAL	W 20-17	*	14	25	56.00	178	1	0	91.7	1	3	7.12	7.92	4	16	4.00	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0

 

 

thats this year and we've faced some of our toughest defensive competition.  There's a couple more teams that we have coming up with good defenses, but the next few don't present the same issues...  and this doesn't illustrate the shutting down of the pass game in 3 games when we had built a 1st half lead.... 

[Sticksboi05]

Smith has been mediocre no other way to put it. On the good side:

 

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Kendall Fuller is allowing 9 yards per target when he is the nearest defender, 10th most among cornerbacks who have been targeted at least 30 times. The Chiefs will need his contributions as they are being attacked deep. Opponents have a 9.5 air yards per target average against the Chiefs, the fourth-highest average in the NFL

58 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

He's winning football games. 

 

Teams win games. QB win-loss is borderline useless.

[OVCChairman]

2 minutes ago, Sticksboi05 said:

 

Teams win games. QB win-loss is borderline useless.

 

 

While I agree with a lot of this, that you cant live and die on a qbs win / loss ratio because a lot goes into, it shouldn't be ignored.  A QB with a good winning % generally speaking is a good QB.  It's rare that a qb with a poor winning % over a career as long as Smith has had, is a 'good' QB.  Yes there are QBs that are better than their wins / losses, but usually a losing QB is a losing QB and there's a reason for it.  Let me rephrase it...

 

the TEAM is winning football games with him as the starting QB... better?  

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

Absolutely... Smith needs to be better.  The front office ALREADY needs to be planning for his replacement.  I want to see it come via the draft.  Smith is not 'the future' of this franchise.  He is however the starting QB.  He's better than Colt McCoy, and he's better than he's been playing.  A 14 year career tells us that.  He's winning football games.  Is he going to be considered an MVP?  Nope.  Did he make some mistakes?  Yep.  He missed throws, and he absolutely under ANY circumstances, can never be ok with going out of bounds on that 3rd down play.  That is inexcusable and it almost cost us the game... I get it. 

 

 

Here is the problem from the perspective of us Kirk fans. This team has been trying to find the long term answer at QB through the draft since George Allen drafted Joe Theisman.  What would anyone believe the Redskins under Daniel Snyder will be able to beat the odds and draft a QB who will be better than the one they threw away?

 

 

[DJHJR86]

17 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

While I agree with a lot of this, that you cant live and die on a qbs win / loss ratio because a lot goes into, it shouldn't be ignored.  A QB with a good winning % generally speaking is a good QB.  It's rare that a qb with a poor winning % over a career as long as Smith has had, is a 'good' QB.  Yes there are QBs that are better than their wins / losses, but usually a losing QB is a losing QB and there's a reason for it.  Let me rephrase it...

  

 the TEAM is winning football games with him as the starting QB... better?  

 

 

That was 2 years ago, but for a guy who's been in the league since 2005, you would think he'd be somewhere on this list.

[OVCChairman]

10 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

 

Here is the problem from the perspective of us Kirk fans. This team has been trying to find the long term answer at QB through the draft since George Allen drafted Joe Theisman.  What would anyone believe the Redskins under Daniel Snyder will be able to beat the odds and draft a QB who will be better than the one they threw away?

 

 

 

 

Let me preface this by saying I was always in support of signing Kirk long term.  I wanted to keep him here.  Let me also say that in his leaving, I came to grips with the fact that he's no longer our QB, so what's done is done.   Signing Kirk 2 years ago would still have been my preference.  I wish we would have signed him for 5 years then.  The problem?  I'm no longer a Kirk fan.  He plays for the Vikings... I also think this Front Office messed up letting McVay walk and retaining Gruden... I DONT think Kirk wanted to stay here after McVay walked.  I think the relationship was fractured and he wanted to test free agency.  I don't think any realistic deal we offered Kirk would have kept him here.  Where the front office REALLY messed up, was the franchise tag debacle, instead of ripping that bandaid after the 2016 season.  Kirk reached a point that he was not going to play for the Redskins anymore, and that's that.  I don't blame Kirk for that at all, it's 100% on the front office....  Kirk is gone.   He's not coming back.  I'm sorry.  I also think they overpaid for him.  He's VERY effective in an offense that was VERY effective with Case Keenum last year who is on the verge of getting benched...  you wanna talk about an anomaly of a season?  Look at Keenum's career stats.  Kirk is a very good QB with his faults but he wears purple now so he's just another potential opponent to me now.  What's even worse is were in a thread talking about getting behind our starting QB and it's a constant battle to get people to root FOR the guy instead of comparing him to skeletons of the past. 

 

ALL of that aside...and to your point on 'beating the odds'  We've had much better drafts since Scot left.  I think our talent evaluating teams are better than they've been in the past, and I feel like THIS front office can see it for what its worth coming out of college...  The scouting team over the last 2 drafts and free agency periods appear to be trending in the right direction.  That's why they need to start planning NOW.  Looking at QBs coming out of college, so if the right guy is there THIS draft, we take them... not rest on the idea that we have Alex Smith and pass on something that might be better for us in the future.  Dan Snyder is our owner.  We cant change that.  We can't in reality change anything because we're all just fans on a message board.  What we can do is enjoy our football team and praise their positive accomplishments..... like being in 1st place.  Like having an adjustment in draft strategy and drafting D-line early and often.  Like drafting a RB in the 2nd round after trading back.  Like not overpaying for free agents or giving up a 1st round pick for Amari Cooper, despite the need for WR.  Like signing DJ Swearinger.  Like trusting a young secondary and giving up Kendall Fuller for a starting QB.  There absolutely are things this talent evaluation team is doing to give me confidence that we've appeared to take a step in the right direction.... Snyder or not.  

 

8 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

 

That was 2 years ago, but for a guy who's been in the league since 2005, you would think he'd be somewhere on this list.

 

 

Thats QBs with bottom half defenses.... 

[Darrell Green Fan]

20 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

 

ALL of that aside...and to your point on 'beating the odds'  We've had much better drafts since Scot left.  I think our talent evaluating teams are better than they've been in the past, and I feel like THIS front office can see it for what its worth coming out of college...  The scouting team over the last 2 drafts and free agency periods appear to be trending in the right direction.  That's why they need to start planning NOW.  Looking at QBs coming out of college, so if the right guy is there THIS draft, we take them..

 

While I agree the drafts have improved since SM left it's still way to early to tell if these last 2 classes will pan out as we hope. But the point remains it is very very difficult to find a top QB in the draft.     A quick look at the last 10 years of the draft shows 25 1st round QBs.  So far only 8 (Stafford, Cam, Luck, Wentz, Goff, Trabusky, Mahomes, and Watson) have worked out. The jury is still out on several of them and an argument can be made that Kirk is as good as several on thbis list.  .  Watson is the latest one to be drafted at 12, the rest were higher picks that would probably require a trade up.  That shows teams spent a whole lot of high picks on QBs that didn't pan out.  

[Morneblade]

9 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

Thats QBs with bottom half defenses.... 

 

There is a reason he isn't on there. He's had top defenses the vast majority of his career, along with a great RB.

 

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Yeah he's gotten on him, and he needs to!  I don't disagree with that... but I just am not willing to accept that what we've seen the last 2 games (against good defenses btw) is the best were gonna see from Alex.  

 

2018-09-09	1	WAS	@	ARI	W 24-6	*	21	30	70.00	255	2	0	118.1	3	8	8.50	9.83	8	14	1.75	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0
2018-09-16	2	WAS		IND	L 9-21	*	33	46	71.74	292	0	0	88.3	3	23	6.35	6.35	4	14	3.50	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2018-09-23	3	WAS		GNB	W 31-17	*	12	20	60.00	220	2	1	110.4	0	0	11.00	10.75	7	20	2.86	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2018-10-08	5	WAS	@	NOR	L 19-43	*	23	39	58.97	275	0	1	69.9	3	31	7.05	5.90	2	7	3.50	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
2018-10-14	6	WAS		CAR	W 23-17	*	21	36	58.33	163	2	0	88.1	3	7	4.53	5.64	6	13	2.17	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2018-10-21	7	WAS		DAL	W 20-17	*	14	25	56.00	178	1	0	91.7	1	3	7.12	7.92	4	16	4.00	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0

 

 

thats this year and we've faced some of our toughest defensive competition.  There's a couple more teams that we have coming up with good defenses, but the next few don't present the same issues...  and this doesn't illustrate the shutting down of the pass game in 3 games when we had built a 1st half lead.... 

 

We still have several good defenses to face, including the Giants. As for shutting things down...................I have a feeling the coach isn't the guy that's doing that.

[OVCChairman]

2 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

While I agree the drafts have improved since SM lets it's still way to early to tell if these last 2 classes will pan out as we hope. But the point remains it is very very difficult to find a top QB in the draft.     A quick look at the last 10 years of the draft shows 25 1st round QBs.  So far only 8  (Stafford, Cam, Luck, Goff, Wentz, Tribusky, Mahomes, Watson) have panned out or are likely to pan out and of course the jury's out on the last few.  he lowest QB to pan out is Watson at 12. That is a ton of high-value picks wasted on bad QBs.

 

 

So what's your solution now that Kirk is out of the picture and Smith is 34, and we suck at drafting players? 

[Burgundy Yoda]

The main thing that kind of blows my mind is how we dominate the TOP stat on offense, yet are pretty much completely useless in the 2nd half of games on offense. This tells me it's more attributed to our defense getting off the field faster instead of our offense grinding teams down. It's still strange to me though. 

 

Alex is a game manager, nothing more, nothing less. He could be better if he didn't have a jacked up internal reward system for throwing the football. 

[Reaper Skins]

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

So what's your solution now that Kirk is out of the picture and Smith is 34, and we suck at drafting players? 

 

That's the problem with the decision they made, there is no solution.  That's why you don't become the first team in our lifetime to simply allow a top 10 QB walk out the door. 

[MartinC]

40 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

This team has been trying to find the long term answer at QB through the draft since George Allen drafted Joe Theisman. 

 

 

 

Joey T was drafted by the Dolphins in the 4th round. We traded for his rights after he refused to play for Dolphins and went to the CFL for 3 years. We traded a first round pick for him.

 

Can you imagine the **** storm there would be now if we traded a first round pick for the rights to sign a guy who was drafted in the 4th round, refused to sign and spent 3 years playing in Canada!

[OVCChairman]

5 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

There is a reason he isn't on there. He's had top defenses the vast majority of his career, along with a great RB.

 

 

We still have several good defenses to face, including the Giants. As for shutting things down...................I have a feeling the coach isn't the guy that's doing that.

 

 

Right, so he's had the help of good defenses, that's not a direct analysis on him.  That poster said 'you'd think he'd be on that list'.  No I don't think he's on that list because he's had good defenses on the other side of the ball.  That's not necessarily a knock on Smith.  It might help understand the bigger picture, but that's not a direct criticism of Smith.  

 

Yes you're right... and we'll continue to get to see how Smith continues in this offense.  I'll be the first one to agree with you if we see more of what we've seen the last 2 weeks.  I'm just not ready to close the book on this chapter, and forget where we are as a team with him behind center.  There's a ton that goes into a teams win / loss ration, but QB in the NFL is possibly the most important position in pro sports.  I think he can be better... just my opinion.  

4 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

That's the problem with the decision they made, there is no solution.  That's why you don't become the first team in our lifetime to simply allow a top 10 QB walk out the door. 

 

 

so what are we talkin about then?  there's no fix?  Lock the doors in Ashburn, relocate the team and give up? 

[TheGreek1973]

4 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

That's the problem with the decision they made, there is no solution.  That's why you don't become the first team in our lifetime to simply allow a top 10 QB walk out the door. 

Exactly.  The draft capital along makes this a dumb move.  To get someone with Cousins production most likely you will need to spend a high 1st round pick and as shown many times that doesn't mean anything in terms of getting a productive QB.  

[Darrell Green Fan]

5 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

so what are we talkin about then?  there's no fix?  Lock the doors in Ashburn, relocate the team and give up? 

 

Just telling it like it is and the reason I remain so angry at how they handled this whole thing.   Do you see any solution given the crap shoot that is the NFL draft?  

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

29 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

That was 2 years ago, but for a guy who's been in the league since 2005, you would think he'd be somewhere on this list.

 

Im not sure if you are serious.

 

That list is full of HOF or damn near HOFs.

 

There are enough legit criticisms of Alex to discuss and trump up ... not being a HOF qb aint one of them imo. Unless you thought Alex was a HOF qb when he was coming to the Skins, then ... I understand your disappointment.

 

im trying to stay out of this thread bc there is no middle ground here. Alex Smith is a very good game manager QB, probably ranked 15-21 or somewhere in terms of QBs. He is what he is. He should get some what better ... but he wont be elite. We can win with Alex but Alex wont win it for us.

[goskins10]

Ok, for anyone interested since we can;t stay away from the Kirk vs. Alex debate. Here are the numbers so far.

 

Kirk is pulling a little further ahead. Will be interesting to see how it goes the rest of the season. Again, I am doing this mainly for my own amusement. But thought I would post in case anyone else was interested. 

 

 

[Morneblade]

6 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Ok, for anyone interested since we can;t stay away from the Kirk vs. Alex debate. Here are the numbers so far.

 

Kirk is pulling a little further ahead. Will be interesting to see how it goes the rest of the season. Again, I am doing this mainly for my own amusement. But thought I would post in case anyone else was interested. 

 

 

 

It's worse going into week 8

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
11	Alex Smith	34	QB	6	6	4-2-0	124	196	63.3	1383	7	3.6	2	1.0	52	7.1	7.3	11.2	230.5	91.9	54.0	13	72	6.27	6.51	6.2

 

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
																											1	0
8	Kirk Cousins	30	QB	7	7	4-2-1	210	300	70.0	2162	14	4.7	3	1.0	75	7.2	7.7	10.3	308.9	101.8	63.9	19	111	6.43	6.88	6.0	1	0

 

 

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

58 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

 

Here is the problem from the perspective of us Kirk fans. This team has been trying to find the long term answer at QB through the draft since George Allen drafted Joe Theisman.  What would anyone believe the Redskins under Daniel Snyder will be able to beat the odds and draft a QB who will be better than the one they threw away?

 

 

 

I was a huge Kirk fan. Kirk is def a better Qb than Alex. No doubt. 

 

Kirk didnt want to be here bc the FO kinda screwed up and Kirk kinda wanted to go no matter what.

 

Alex is a competent enough QB. This is a different team vs years past. We are trying to win games a different way. Perhaps a more consistent way that doesnt rely on your QB needing to throw for over 350 yds a game to be in it.

 

We all loved Kirk. He is gone. Ive moved on.

[goskins10]

10 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

It's worse going into week 8

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
11	Alex Smith	34	QB	6	6	4-2-0	124	196	63.3	1383	7	3.6	2	1.0	52	7.1	7.3	11.2	230.5	91.9	54.0	13	72	6.27	6.51	6.2

 

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
																											1	0
8	Kirk Cousins	30	QB	7	7	4-2-1	210	300	70.0	2162	14	4.7	3	1.0	75	7.2	7.7	10.3	308.9	101.8	63.9	19	111	6.43	6.88	6.0	1	0

 

 

 

Going into week 8 last year Kirk played 7 games. Alex only played 6 so far. So, the comparison is after 6 games each.