Rufus T Firefly Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: 8-8 is probably our best case scenario. I think 5-11 is more likely. The division is very strong(Giants will bounce back). We lost the one guy who kept our team competitive. We still have the same bozos in the FO who will probably screw up FA. Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with Cousins/Smith. The schedule is a good deal tougher, imo. We have to get better to be an 8-8 team this year. Don't believe this FO will be able to replace the players we're losing plus bring much improvement. 8-8 would be a solid accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Monk Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 10 wins or there will be disappointment. There is a lot of fixing that can take place from now until September, and I don't expect the injury bug to be as vicious as he was last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goskins10 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said: Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with Cousins/Smith. The schedule is a good deal tougher, imo. We have to get better to be an 8-8 team this year. Don't believe this FO will be able to replace the players we're losing plus bring much improvement. 8-8 would be a solid accomplishment. First, I agree it's a tough schedule for 2018. No doubt about it. The following is just to have something to do with numbers to replace all the Kirk stuff. Based on Football Outsiders (not perfect but at least a relatively equal measure), the Redskins defense played the 4th toughest offensive schedule and the offence played the 8 toughest defensive schedule in 2017. While it could be tougher in 2018, not sure if it can be by much. Last year was a much tougher schedule than I think many realize. Following are the SOS for 2015, 2016 and 2017, going into the season and final. I also listed the 2018 preseason SOS. It's kind of interesting actually. Our SOS progressively got harder but the teams W/L record stayed pretty close to the same. Preseason SOS Final SOS 2015 20th - 122-133-1 (0.478) 30th - 105-121 (0.465) 2016 17th - 126-130 (0.492) 11th - 116-109-1 (0.516) 2017 7th - 139-117 (0.543) 5th - 138-118 (0.539) 2018 14th - 129-127 (0.504) Also worth noting is that in 2015 and 2017 the Redskins were in the top 5 of most injured teams (weighted impact). Those graphs for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are below. Actual man games missed were*: 2015 4th (215 man games lost) 2016 18th (175 man games lost) 2017 8th (293 man games lost) *Top 10 both 2015 and 2017. Weighted injury impact: 2017 2016 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veryoldschool Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Warhead36 said: 8-8 is probably our best case scenario. I think 5-11 is more likely. The division is very strong(Giants will bounce back). We lost the one guy who kept our team competitive. We still have the same bozos in the FO who will probably screw up FA. Yeah, I think you are right. Cousins kept us in games I hope Smith can do that as well but I am not that familiar with him, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 What, so instead of signing our drafted QB to an LTD, we trade for an older one and still don't make the playoffs is somehow a success? If we miss the playoffs, Allen should be fired. This is his last chance with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onedrop Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said: I hope you're not suggesting that every part of the Redskins team getting dramatically better all at once would qualify as "improbable" because you know what... F it....youre right. and i have a pretty original, dare i say ingenious, way to do it. first, forget the draft for the most part. trade our picks and buckets of cash for aging veterans with big name recognition. it'll invigorate the fanbase, light this board on FIRE and hell....individually they may be a little past their prime but combined....combined well be unstoppable! I'm all in for day 3....when the cortisone shots kick in....bring on the $12 beers, a new alternate jersey and some dumbass marketing slogan. IT'S GOING TO BE E P I C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 44 minutes ago, goskins10 said: First, I agree it's a tough schedule for 2018. No doubt about it. The following is just to have something to do with numbers to replace all the Kirk stuff. Based on Football Outsiders I love having Football Outsiders as a reference, but statistics in football have real limitations. Certainly we got hit hard by injuries, though it is hard to substantiate the exact "impact" of injuries (more on that later). But we also seem to have a recurring problem with this. When we have not only Jordan Reed as one of our elite level players, but also guys like Williams and Norman who seem to be getting banged up pretty often, and they'e now hitting their 30s, I have a hard time accepting on faith that the impact we're going to get from injuries is going to be significantly less gong forward. As for schedules, I'm not drilling down hard on statistical number on SOS. Our schedule I'm sure looks tough last year by raw numbers. But we also caught LA before they hit their stride, San Francisco when they were terrible, Arizona and Denver when their QB situations had rendered them completely inept, Dallas with Elliot for one of their games. And sure, we caught a couple of teams at their peaks (KC and the Chargers, for example). But the point is it's deceiving to measure just bu opponents' W-L records, or other statistical overviews. We had 5 games that were basically pushover opponent games last year (even though we lost one of them) and several that were very winnable for a middle of the pack team (and yes, everyone is beatable to an extent, I'm talking in terms of degrees). Now, maybe things will fall the right way next year, but next year looks harder at this moment. Back to that earlier point, one of the reasons the numbers make next years' schedule look not so tough is the injuries some of our opponents suffered. Green Bay, Houston and Indy were, regardless of what any stats say, more affected by injuries than us last year. Two of those teams are likely playoff contenders when healthy who ended among the league's 4 worst records. The other fits anyone's definition of a real Super Bow contender who are on a 3rd place schedule because their best player got hurt. So I appreciate numbers, but I'm looking past them a bit here. Last year, given beating the Rams before they really became a power, it's easy to see a path to 10 wins for a middle of the pack team with no major upsets, and a split with Dallas. Next year, that same kind of formula looks more like 7 wins (maybe). Though we'll obviously see if other teams' injuries and misfortunes ends up making it easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderDOOM Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 We didnt catch the rams before anything. At the time we were a good team. When we lost Allen ( and Monte, Mason, Matt, Chris etc..) things changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanguard Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 hours ago, maxspruill21 said: If we go 8-8 I’ll be pissed. Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veryoldschool Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 Goskins10, very interesting injury statistics. I don't know what to make of them. What do these numbers say about the roster and the training and conditioning program? I don't know the answer but it is another aspect of the problem. I'm great with 8-8 in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said: We have to get better to be an 8-8 team this year. Don't believe this FO will be able to replace the players we're losing plus bring much improvement. 8-8 would be a solid accomplishment. I think this is a key. It's easy sometimes to gloss over the losses in FA because we focus on the new present. Pryor, Z. Brown and Swearinger were cool things to unwrap for some of us last year. And D. Jax and Garcon weren't cried over much. But looking at the trade off. Maybe at best it was a wash? Granted Garcon got hurt and D. Jax had an off year. Still the theory was Crowder would emerge as a #1 type. Jordan Reed would be the featured guy. Pryor would be who he was in Cleveland. None of that happened so one of our strengths became a glaring weakness to the degree where we are desperate to land a new guy at WR in a thin FA market. This year it looks like they are toying with losing a lot more in FA. We've already lost arguably the best slot corner we've had forever. And likely lose Breeland. And somehow Dunbar and Holsey step in and we don't lose a step? It's possible. but its also possible the secondary takes a step down. The pass rush was one of the better ones in the league last year. We lose Galette and Murphy -- then that puts a lot on Ryan Anderson (who didn't show much last season) to spell the starters or start if anyone gets hurt. We lose Zach and don't replace him -- then are we back to Compton and Foster again? So for me this FA season is big. We can't make a leap up IMO if we lose more FAs than any year I can recall and replace them with the Bruce special cheapish 2nd-3rd tier guys. I am hearing that might change this off season. If so, that would be great and critical. But its not going to be easy. In theory, MLB, CB, and pass rush all will be taking a step back and if so we are starting at a deficit. Also LG -- not that Long is a big miss but he's better than what we have left. For me this is one of the most important FA seasons, they've had. I am not saying I am pessimistic. To me its all a great unknown. With all the FAs potentially leaving the door -- we can't IMO do one of those Reyes, McGee, McClain, A. Roberts laden FA crops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 hours ago, Veryoldschool said: I think mediocrity is the father of modest success in the NFL that can beget real success. It is possible to go from awful to good but after watching the NFL for over 50 years I think it is a lot more common for a team to gradually spiral upward and that is what I hope the Redskins will do in 2018. After averaging less than .500 for 15 years the Skins played .500 ball for 3 years and I hope they can achieve that in 2018 which I believe would be a major accomplishment. I also have to wonder if this is still as true in the salary cap era as it perhaps was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFLSkins Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 hours ago, Silvernon said: Alex Smith takes the shots and runs the offense the way Gruden wants More than Jordan Reed (who is healthy) in the passing game The run defense is night and day with a real nose tackle, and depth The new RB thrives behind a healthy OL Moreau is an upper end CB2 Nicholson stays healthy All that happens, and this team is 10-13 wins. More likely 8-11 because there will be key injuries and drop-offs. I think you are dreaming, but Hey, I'll be pulling for you to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The offseason hasn't started. But with the trade for Alex, and hopefully a healthy roster etc.... I always expect a .500 or better season, this season will be no different. There were flashes last year. As of today, I expect 9 wins. The free agents and draft might bring my total up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So free agency and the draft havent even taken place yet and we are talking about records already? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12 hours ago, maxspruill21 said: If we go 8-8 I’ll be pissed. If the Redskins go 8-8 it'll be a minor miracle no matter who they sign in FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srtman04 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 There's no ****ing way this team goes anywhere near 8-8.....its been gutted, chemistry is broken. This is stupid ass Bruce logic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny21 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I have to think that the attitude that ‘we’d better see a record improvement this year’ drives a win now mentality from the FO. That’s ok on the surface, but I don’t want to lose sight of the future either. Injuries last year hurt us of course - losing Allen and Foster (and Ioannidas’ injury) caused a big drop off in our run D. Nicholson's injury caused Swearinger to play deeper more often, which didn’t help. Reed was never healthy, Crowder had a rough/slow start, Doctson lost much of TC, Pryor played injured, and Thompson went down. In all, our passing weapons were made to look far worse than they are. Of course, our oline injuries, injured backs, and injured/lacking weapons caused a dip to our already not so hot run game. Long story short, I think this team is better than they looked last year, which is where the FO gets their thinking that this team is close. Unfortunately, we’re shorter on draft picks, don’t have a great deal of cap space, have to deal with a new qb, and have far more holes than we did at the end of the year - ILB, LG, slot corner, outside corner depth, and 3rd OLB - along with the issues that popped up in-season - starting back, blocking TE, NT, receiver, and backup at DT and FS. If we can significantly address each area (not position) of weakness - run stopping, receiving weapons and the run game - I think we have a decent shot at .500. Can’t see much better than that though unless we somehow answer the (new) areas of potential drop off - secondary, pass rush and qb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyst Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 What made you think they would go 10-6 last year when the year before that they had a record of 8-7-1? Not to mention they lost both receivers, it was proven our offensive line could not block and if they could, they would be blocking for a talent-less running back corp? This year? Well, we lost our starting QB, still do no have starting caliber WRs, our line still can't block, for a less than talented group of running backs.But again, yes if we just stay healthy and this play or that play goes our way, we could win the superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veryoldschool Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 I thought they would go 10-6 last year because I was excited about the investments they made in the defense. I also thought Pryor would become a star with Cousins throwing to him and Doctson would be healthy and blossom. Pryor flopped, Doctson looked like rookie and everyone except Cousins got hurt. Now 8-8 is as optimistic as I can be in 2018. I hope Smith can fill Cousins’ shoes and the team will be healthier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WelshSkinsFan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 41 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said: Now 8-8 is as optimistic as I can be in 2018. I hope Smith can fill Cousins’ shoes and the team will be healthier. No idea what the rest of the roster will do or will even look like at this point but I really am not concerned about whether Smith can match Cousins production in this offence. Hope we don't go nuts throwing money at bad free agents and instead let our scouting department do their thing in the draft and with the UDFA. Jerry Reese managed an all world draft once so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Stupid Loser Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 hours ago, Renegade7 said: What, so instead of signing our drafted QB to an LTD, we trade for an older one and still don't make the playoffs is somehow a success? If we miss the playoffs, Allen should be fired. This is his last chance with me. He should already have been fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 hours ago, Renegade7 said: What, so instead of signing our drafted QB to an LTD, we trade for an older one and still don't make the playoffs is somehow a success? If we miss the playoffs, Allen should be fired. This is his last chance with me. So, this is a very interesting take and I think it highlights the two different ways you can evaluate results. I think the "8-8 is about right" argument is accurate. Even with more health, this team isn't suddenly a 10-12 win team. So, I think the fair and objective expectation would be for this team to finish right in line with where they have from 2015-2017. Having said that, I think that's more an evaluation of the coaches and players. From a front office perspective, I agree with you. I think you can credit Gruden for 8-8 while blaming Allen for it. He put this team together and I agree that, without some near-term success, there was absolutely no reason to give up Fuller and a 3rd for an older QB. So, he's almost stating that he expects to win. So, he should be held accountable to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvernon Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 17 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said: So under the "not improbable" category is a run defense that is 'night and day' from last year and the success of an as yet nonexistent RB. OK, then. Bennie Logan and a healthy Phil Taylor Isaiah Crowell The lack of imagination on this board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said: So, he's almost stating that he expects to win. So, he should be held accountable to that. Ya, that's pretty much how I feel about this. We could've focused our efforts on drafting a future franchise QB once we knew we weren't bringing Cousins back (which is what I wanted). Trading for Alex was a win now move, so we better win now or somebody needs to pay for that decision. 36 minutes ago, Fat Stupid Loser said: He should already have been fired. I'm not going to argue for or against this anymore until this season coming is over. First he gave Shanny control, then Scott. This decision is completely on him right now (I'm convinced Doug Williams' say on the Alex Smith trade was completely irrelevant unless someone can prove otherwise - I'm all ears). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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