.500 In 2018 Would Be A Good Year For The Skins

[WelshSkinsFan]

Pretty certain we are going to win more than we lose this year but I just read this here article on NFL.com and it made me think.  I have to admit that it made me think David Carr is a worse pundit than he was a quarterback but it made me think

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000923585/article/quarterback-relocations-tyrod-taylor-kirk-cousins-set-to-soar

[Veryoldschool]

5 hours ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

Pretty certain we are going to win more than we lose this year but I just read this here article on NFL.com and it made me think.  I have to admit that it made me think David Carr is a worse pundit than he was a quarterback but it made me think

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000923585/article/quarterback-relocations-tyrod-taylor-kirk-cousins-set-to-soar

 

I would like to share your optimism, why do you feel pretty certain the Skins are going to win more than they lose in 2018?

[WelshSkinsFan]

My optimism is based on a number of factors and whilst I accept not all of these will work out the way I hope I believe we will hit on enough of these to tip the scale to a winning season.  The last 3 years we have basically been a .500 team and so logically if we improve a couple of areas we should add to the win column.

 

QB - This could be a wash, lots of debate over who is better but clearly Kirk and Alex each have strengths and so provided Gruden adjusts his playcalling to fit Alex we should be good here.  Very encouraging to read comments from Jay already about introducing more RPO to take advantage of Alex's athleticism and also hearing Alex say he will take more shots in this offense because that is what Jay calls for.  Still I think the end production will be similar with maybe a few less turnovers.

 

RB - Couldn't exactly get worse now could it?  The organization as a whole is presenting a united front on this one.  They want to fix the run game.  I do think we will add someone through the draft but I also believe Perine will look better in year 2, there is talent there and he was clearly adjusting last year to a change in the way he lined up in college whilst playing behind a shredded OL.  A full season from CT will help here also.

 

WR - Richardson is an upgrade over Pryor with a far higher ceiling.  Doctson came on well last year and should take another leap this year, also having a QB who is not playing for a contract should mean he gets more targets as Kirk clearly took the check down option at times as he tried to ensure his stats looked good for FA.  Crowder is staying in the slot, moving him outside didn't work and Jay knows it and he ought to be fully fit to start the season which he was not last year.

 

TE - Reed is being handled carefully right now but should be a full go by training camp, Davis is still a good backup and I think Sprinkle will step it up this year.  If we get 12 games out of Reed that is big uptick on last year, Alex loves throwing to the TE and will max out Reed when he is on the field and we already know how well he plays with Davis.  Sprinkle can definitely block but I genuinely think he is very underrated by most people on this board and will surprise us this year.

 

DL - MI is getting better and better, Allen was looking like a stud before the foot injury and much like running back, the entire organization has admitted they need to fix the run defense and so whether it is a late FA signing or a draft pick I do expect some added beef in the middle of that front before training camp.

 

LB - Brown and Foster are back, we still have Smith and Kerrigan and McPhee looks like a nice addition.  Ryan Anderson should be more of a factor this year two, I work with his step-brother here in Alabama and he tells me all the reports of Ryan getting in amazing shape and focused for this year are true.  Gallette flashed but did not do much so I doubt we are weaker for losing him and as for Compton, nice locker room guy but his best position is on the sidelines.  Murphy did not play last year so not a factor.

 

DB - This is the one group where we might have become weaker I admit.  Breeland is easily replaced and I am sure we are going to be good there but Fuller is a big loss.  Hopefully the team is right with their belief that Holsey can develop into the role but I also think we could see a DB taken early in the draft.  For now I would call this a weaker group.  Safety looks good to me, no better or worse than last year at least and again with younger guys who could show real improvement when the games begin.

 

P/K - Decent here and no change so I think we are ok for another season. 

 

I don't rate the Giants or Cowboys and feel we have a better roster than either of them, I also think we have a better HC.  Shurmur is a Mike Mularkey, good OC but give him the top job and you realize he is a great number 2 and Garrett is a total clown who only has a job because he doesn't mind having puppet master Jerry Jones dictating his every decision.

 

Finally of course, the overall health and fitness of the team.  Over the course of a few seasons everything evens out and every team will get a snakebit season like we did last year.  I don't believe the same thing will happen this year and so if we deal with just the normal range of injury issues or even have a good year in this area then I think that is worth a game or two in itself.

 

I am sure plenty of people would disagree but it is March and I refuse to face reality until at least the end of September.

 

 

[HigSkin]

 

Wow, some optimism.....

[bobandweave]

23 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

I would like to share your optimism, why do you feel pretty certain the Skins are going to win more than they lose in 2018?

 

Second year for the 17 rookies, Alex Smith is better in pretty much every way over Kirk, they will add some talent to the RB position, 18 rookies will deepen the depth, Reed heathy again, they won’t have as many injuries as they did in 17. 

 

Things are definitely on the upswing for them over that cloud of crap that was 17

[hatchetwound]

3 hours ago, HigSkin said:

 

Wow, some optimism.....

I agree 100%.  In another thread I said that its going to come down to us or the Eagles.  Giants got the basement and the Cowboys will regress further.

[skinny21]

A lot of it will boil down to injuries again, IMO.  As of now, losing a DT, Scherff, an OLB, Norman, Alex Smith... any of these could affect the record, IMO.  

 

I am optimistic that we were, and are closer to the team that started out last year (particularly defensively) and may wind up better.  Good shot of improvement from our offensive weapons too.  Upgrade at runningback, find a LG, and add some depth (dline especially), and I think we’re in for a good year.  Good enough to appease Snyder and fans?  I don’t know.  

[skinsfan35yrs.]

On 3/22/2018 at 1:53 PM, Louskins9193 said:

Last year I predicted the Skins would go 7-9 and thats exactly what happened. This year unless I see some significant changes on FA or the Draft

I predict 6-8 and if that happens then we need to clean house starting from the FO on down. Theres no vision for this team from the Owner on down.

No plan on how were going to get to the playoffs and beyond, I already can see something special formulating on the 49ers organization. 

The 49ers looks like they have a winning FO so far based on some of their moves. The Skins continue with the same status quo mediocre team mentality.

what, we only play 14 games this year?

[hatchetwound]

19 hours ago, hatchetwound said:

I agree 100%.  In another thread I said that its going to come down to us or the Eagles.  Giants got the basement and the Cowboys will regress further.

The more that I think about it, no one has won the division two years in a row for more than a decade.  So that eliminates the eagles.

 

Now that the division is ours, we can start talking about getting that first round bye.

[DJHJR86]

Alex Smith, with a better supporting cast around him last year with the Chiefs, went 1-2 against teams within our division last year with 3 TD's & 3 INT's with an average of 248 yards a game.  Why all of this optimism about competing for the division next year?  I just don't get it.  

[HTTRDynasty]

25 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Alex Smith, with a better supporting cast around him last year with the Chiefs, went 1-2 against teams within our division last year with 3 TD's & 3 INT's with an average of 248 yards a game.  Why all of this optimism about competing for the division next year?  I just don't get it.  

 

Actually, Chiefs went 2-2 against the NFCE last year.  Won against us and the Eagles.  Lost against Cowboys and Giants.  Smith had 5TDs (ran for 1) and 3 INTs with a passer rating above 100 in all games except for the Giants.

 

When it comes to losing to the Cowboys and Giants, a lot of that had to do with Reid's playcalling, when teams started to figure his scheme out towards the middle of the season (4 losses in a row).  It took him awhile, but he eventually adjusted towards the end of the season and the Chiefs started winning again (4 wins in a row to close out the season).

 

Dallas is the team that started that 4 game losing streak for KC last year.  The video below gives a good breakdown of what they did to stop the high-powered KC offense.  Other teams started copying this strategy until Reid finally adjusted.

 

 

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

16 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Alex Smith, with a better supporting cast around him last year with the Chiefs, went 1-2 against teams within our division last year with 3 TD's & 3 INT's with an average of 248 yards a game.  Why all of this optimism about competing for the division next year?  I just don't get it.  

 

They went 2-2 last season against the NFC East (beat the Eagles and us, lost to the Cowboys and Giants).  

[DJHJR86]

3 minutes ago, Dont Taze Me Bro said:

 

They went 2-2 last season against the NFC East (beat the Eagles and us, lost to the Cowboys and Giants).  

 

Alex Smith won't be playing the Redskins next year.

 

4 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The video below gives a good breakdown of what they did to stop the high-powered KC offense.  Other teams started copying this strategy until Reid finally adjusted.

 

The Redskins currently do not have a high powered offense, like KC did last year.  Yet another reason as to why I remain skeptical about being optimistic going forward.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Alex Smith won't be playing the Redskins next year.

 

The Redskins currently do not have a high powered offense, like KC did last year.  Yet another reason as to why I remain skeptical about being optimistic going forward.

 

You should be happy he won't be playing that version of the Redskins next year.  I know I am.  When we were completely healthy in the first 4 games last year, we looked like a completely different team.  We were an idiotic Jamison Crowder fumble away from possibly beating the eventual SB champs in Week 1.  We beat the NFCW division winner 11-5 Rams in Week 2 at their house.  We completely dominated the Raiders in Week 3, holding their offense to under 100 yards for the majority of the game.  And we were a Josh Doctson end-zone catch from beating the Chiefs in Week 4.

 

If we're healthy, this offense can be just as explosive as KC's was last year.  We have a top deep threat like KC.  We have a top 5 TE (when healthy) like KC and a much better back-up TE than KC had.  We have a better #2 WR in Doctson than KC had last year.  We have a much better OL than KC, when healthy.  We just need to hit on a stud RB in this draft, which is only a little less deep than it was last year, where KC drafted Hunt in the 3rd round.

[DJHJR86]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

We have a top deep threat like KC.  We have a top 5 TE (when healthy) like KC and a much better back-up TE than KC had.  We have a better #2 WR in Doctson than KC had last year.  We have a much better OL than KC, when healthy.  We just need to hit on a stud RB in this draft, which is only a little less deep than it was last year, where KC drafted Hunt in the 3rd round.

 

We don't have a top deep threat.  At all.  Our top 5 TE is never healthy.  Backup TE is better, of course, but still not the same as Kelce.  Albert Wilson played in 3 less games than Crowder, and still averaged more in yards per reception.  OL is questionable, and the odds of us hitting on a stud RB in this draft are minimal.  

[HTTRDynasty]

2 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

We don't have a top deep threat.  At all.

 

You're alone in that opinion.

 

 

Quote

 

NFL Top 10 deep receiving threats through Week 9

 

4. Paul Richardson, Seattle Seahawks

Deep Target WR Rating: 140.0

Prior to this season, Richardson seemed to be the forgotten receiver in Seattle. He has stepped into a role with the offense very well, catching five deep targets across five different games, two of which have gone for touchdowns.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-nfl-top-10-deep-receiving-threats-through-week-9

 

 

Quote

 

Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones among best deep-threat WRs of 2017

6

Paul Richardson

WR

Seahawks

 

 

Passer rating: 126.2 (fourth).
Catch rate: 38.9 percent (12th).
Percentage of yards: 39.1 percent (10th).
Deep touchdowns: 3 (12th).

Score: 38.

After the likes of Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins are scooped up on the free-agent market, teams in need of an X-receiver will turn their attention to yet another 2014 draft pick. Richardson emerged as the second-best wideout on the Seahawks behind Doug Baldwin last year, serving as Seattle's primary downfield threat. Russell Wilson had a 126.2 passer rating when targeting Richardson on passes that traveled 20-plus yards in the air. The lanky wideout hauled in seven deep balls for 275 yards and three scores. Teams will have questions about Richardson's injury history, including a twice-torn ACL that kept him from cracking the passing rotation until Tyler Lockett was hurt late in 2016. However, he's a soon-to-be 26-year-old deep threat who is more than comfortable fighting for the ball with defensive backs right in his hip pocket. Those traits make him an ideal target for offenses in need of help out wide.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920662/article/tyreek-hill-marvin-jones-among-best-deepthreat-wrs-of-2017

 

 

Also, not sure why you brought Crowder up.  I was talking about Doctson. 

 

And OL is not questionable.  Ours is clearly better than the Chiefs.

[DJHJR86]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

You're alone in that opinion. Also, not sure why you brought Crowder up.  I was talking about Doctson. 

 

I forgot about the Richardson signing.  I still don't see him as a top deep threat along the likes of Hill.  

[alwaysaskin]

I think the roster is in good shape, minus a RB and NT, I honestly think we nail our first round pick, either Guice, Ward, or Fitzpatrick (please no Vea) and with the depth on the team, unless we have another season full of freak injuries I think playoffs are not out of the question.  

I think people are discounting a healthy Allen, and Taylor. Will I be more confident if Hankins signs? Yes, but I think this team can compete with anyone IF they upgrade the running game

[SWFLSkins]

On 4/5/2018 at 12:23 PM, DJHJR86 said:

 

I forgot about the Richardson signing.  I still don't see him as a top deep threat along the likes of Hill.  

 

LOL, He was 4th in the league. 

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

[SWFLSkins]

 

[bakedtater1]

On 4/5/2018 at 8:24 AM, hatchetwound said:

The more that I think about it, no one has won the division two years in a row for more than a decade.  So that eliminates the eagles.

 

Now that the division is ours, we can start talking about getting that first round bye.

I already have plans made for Atlanta in early February..

[bobandweave]

On 4/5/2018 at 10:55 AM, DJHJR86 said:

 

The Redskins currently do not have a high powered offense, like KC did last year.  Yet another reason as to why I remain skeptical about being optimistic going forward.

 

The Redskins also lost a 20 turnover a season QB and replaced him with one that turned the ball over 6 times. And they lost the QB who led the league in yards lost due to sacks taken. Addition by subtraction.

[SWFLSkins]

 

2 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

The Redskins also lost a 20 turnover a season QB and replaced him with one that turned the ball over 6 times. And they lost the QB who led the league in yards lost due to sacks taken. Addition by subtraction.

 

 

Tweet that and copy to me.....thnx.  

Ashburning@johnnylocal

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2018 NFL MVP BETTING ODDS

Player	Odds
Tom Brady (NE)	+600
Aaron Rodgers (GB)	+700
Carson Wentz (PHI)	+1100
Drew Brees (NO)	+1100
Russell Wilson (SEA)	+1200
Philip Rivers (LAC)	+1400
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)	+1600
Kirk Cousins (MIN)	+1600
Jared Goff (LAR)	+1600
Dak Prescott (DAL)	+1800
Cam Newton (CAR)	+1800
Matt Ryan (ATL)	+2000
Derek Carr (OAK)	+2000
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)	+2000
Matthew Stafford (DET)	+2500
Andrew Luck (IND)	+2500
Deshaun Watson (HOU)	+2800
Alex Smith (WSH)	+3300
Jameis Winston (TB)	+3300
Eli Manning (NYG)	+3300
David Johnson (ARZ)	+3300
Marcus Mariota (TEN)	+4000
Case Keenum (DEN)	+4000
Blake Bortles (JAC)	+5000
Joe Flacco (BAL)	+5000
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)	+5000
Todd Gurley (LAR)	+5000
Le’Veon Bell (PIT)	+5000
Kareem Hunt (KC)	+5000
Leonard Fournette (JAC)	+5000
LeSean McCoy (BUF)	+5000
Antonio Brown (PIT)	+5000

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-odds

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

The Redskins also lost a 20 turnover a season QB and replaced him with one that turned the ball over 6 times. And they lost the QB who led the league in yards lost due to sacks taken. Addition by subtraction.

 

Turnovers I get.  But Kirk typically doesn't get sacked much.  It wasn't his fault that the O line was full of third stringers for a chunk of the season. 

 

Cooley who likes Alex Smith said Alex does have a tendency to take too many sacks that are on him -- he thinks Alex is a downgrade from Kirk specifically on the sack front. Will see. 

 

But yeah Kirk's key weakness last year was his fumbles.   As for Alex being an upgrade, I doubt it.  But I think it will be similar.  If Alex gets a good RB in this draft than maybe the offense will be better.  IMO you need a good running game to maximize Alex's skills. 

 

Jamison Crowder's fumble issues -- I like Crowder but the idea that some have that we have to give the dude major money to keep him in the fold IMO is silly.  To me Crowder isn't a top 5 slot WR.   What did Crowder lose like 4 balls on punts?  If you replace him as the PR that alone should help.

 

As for the season -- IMO lets see how the draft and the rest of the off season unfold.  I see the team as its currently constructed an 8-8 team.  If they upgrade at DT and RB-10-6ish.