Will Cousins Play For The Skins In 2018

[wilco_holland]

Right now I'm curious what happens with Jimmy in SF. Do the 49ers have enough faith to sign him to the biggest QB deal or do they tag him? And what happens after that.

 

Right now I feel we just played it wrong. If you have a QB you like, you just sign him to a big deal. That's how the market works. You have zero leverage because even terrible QB's earn a bunch of money. There is no hard negotiating from the team stand point. 

 

Only way out is when hole organisation goes to Kirk and says: dude we where wrong. You proofed to us that you are out franchise QB and we want to keep you. Let's make a deal. 

 

There is no way that Kirk is going to sign early. There are a couple of good QB's that will probably sign a new deal so he wants to follow after that. Not set the market but wait until the market is set. 

[markmills67]

52 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

Right now I'm curious what happens with Jimmy in SF. Do the 49ers have enough faith to sign him to the biggest QB deal or do they tag him? And what happens after that.

 

Right now I feel we just played it wrong. If you have a QB you like, you just sign him to a big deal. That's how the market works. You have zero leverage because even terrible QB's earn a bunch of money. There is no hard negotiating from the team stand point. 

 

Only way out is when hole organisation goes to Kirk and says: dude we where wrong. You proofed to us that you are out franchise QB and we want to keep you. Let's make a deal. 

 

There is no way that Kirk is going to sign early. There are a couple of good QB's that will probably sign a new deal so he wants to follow after that. Not set the market but wait until the market is set. 

In my opinion each QB should be based on there own production, and for me cousin's is a $20/25 a year maximum QB, we can't be held random by Cousin's or any other player when we have so many holes on the roster, and I stand by my earlier post that there is no reason why the cousin's situation can't be sorted very soon. The Redskins FO should have a maximum figure in mind that they will go to, and if cousin's doesn't want to sign then we need to move on without him. 

 

HTTR 

 

[purbeast]

3 hours ago, Newera said:

A lot people didn't think Case Kenum could play.  With a bad stint in St Louis.  He has done well.  We take Kirks money upgrade team and draft a young qb we will be better off in the long run.

The bolded hasn't worked in 20+ years for this franchise, why do you all of a sudden think it's going to work?  In reality, we even lucked into Kirk Cousins being as good as he is.  

 

It just really baffles me as to why people think it's so easy to draft a young QB and groom him into the next Tom Brady, ESPECIALLY for this organization, given their history.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, wilco_holland said:

Right now I'm curious what happens with Jimmy in SF. Do the 49ers have enough faith to sign him to the biggest QB deal or do they tag him? And what happens after that.

 

 

One of the NFL insiders talked about this yesterday if I recall it was Joel Corry (I could be wrong on the source it is escaping me) saying if the 49ers sign Jimmy G to a long term deal -- it puts the Redskins on the spot even more.

 

The Colt McCoy finding his groove later in his career would be one of the biggest shocks I think we've seen in this organization.  His career QBR is abysmal -- including in his spot duty here.  In his career, he gives up more turnovers than he scores TDs.   He is as brittle as it gets.  I saw him in camp and watching him throw after both Kirk and Sudfeld was so glaring it was ridiculous.  The idea that his arm strength has improved which some claim -- IMO that's a joke -- you can see the noodle arm in play.    As a guy though the dude comes off every bit as nice and upstanding as Kirk -- wish he can play like Kirk, though.

 

As I posted yesterday in an article from Chris Russell the sticking point about the contract is likely the fully guaranteed not the average sum per year. He's not the first person who said that.  If so, I think Kirk could be had potentially in the 25 million range give or take but there needs to be at least 3 seasons fully guaranteed -- not just 2.

 

Cooley just said he heard from someone (not on the Redskins) that Kirk told Dan that he wouldn't want to return if Kevin O'Connell leaves.  That's hard for me to believe though.   Cooley said he thinks O'Connell is the guy in the building who big time believes in Kirk and has gotten close to -- sort of like the new Sean.  

[WelshSkinsFan]

4 hours ago, Newera said:

A lot people didn't think Case Kenum could play.  With a bad stint in St Louis.  He has done well.  We take Kirks money upgrade team and draft a young qb we will be better off in the long run.

 

Question can we move kirk to Denver for their first.  Denver is almost desperate.  It will help if a couple teams want him.  We just make a deal.  Still will probably be hard to do since we have so dropped the ball.  I get the sense Bruce Allen thinks he is more valuable than players.

 

No we cannot move Kirk to Denver for their first.  It is basically a LTD or we let him walk for nothing as the transition tag won't provide compensation and the exclusive tag is unlikely here but if it was offered Kirk would say thanks very much and sign and play out next year for $34 million.

[RemoveSnyder]

2 minutes ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

Kirk would say thanks very much and sign

 

And once a player is signed, he is what? Under contract. 

Under "team control."

[hailer21]

This is so dumb. 

 

Kirk was drafted and groomed by our staff into a Top 10 QB but we'll let him walk for virtually nothing. GMs have traded their left nut for much worse QBs.

 

Colt Mccoy will not magically take this team to the SB. Maybe the planets align and he nets a 7 win season...great.

 

Or we draft another QB and do the same dance we have for decades. Maybe we'll even have the chance to groom him into another very good QB and botch negotiations with him too. 

 

Or we pick up a lesser/cheaper FA QB. Fire up the team for one more run and realize we're not all that close to a SB run - especially with a brand new QB that hasn't played in Grudens offense for several years. And blow it all up, go back to playing the lottery for a rookie QB.

 

The LTD with Kirk would shock me more than anything else but even that outcome would put the Skins in a cap poor position and require primo drafting/team building to succeed. Id still take that over any of the above but i give this a 1% chance.

 

Stupid stupid stupid. 

 

Another wonderful chapter in the saga of Dan.

 

 

[WelshSkinsFan]

12 minutes ago, Monk4thaHALL said:

 

And once a player is signed, he is what? Under contract. 

Under "team control."

Yes but the reality is nobody is paying a first rounder for a guy on a 1 year $34 million contract.  If a trade opportunity exists there you have to accept that the best offer might be a 3rd or 4th rounder and it is just as likely that we get no bids and once he signs we cannot rescind and so we need to be comfortable with paying $34 million for a rental.

[RemoveSnyder]

16 minutes ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

for a guy on a 1 year $34 million contract. 

 

Contract extension.

34.47 is but a fraction of the 90+ million guaranteed on the life of a 5 year extension. 

[Tay]

51 minutes ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

 

No we cannot move Kirk to Denver for their first.  It is basically a LTD or we let him walk for nothing as the transition tag won't provide compensation and the exclusive tag is unlikely here but if it was offered Kirk would say thanks very much and sign and play out next year for $34 million.

I actually think that is in play. If we place the transition tag on Kirk and Denver can't create an offer sheet that we wouldn't match, they may have to facilitate a trade to sign Kirk.

 

That's probably not our best option, but I do believe it's in play. 

[Llevron]

Question: Is drafting a young QB in todays NFL a good long term move or a win now move? 

 

For color - my thinking is that you will have to pay the dude anyway. So long term you are just pushing the money back to another year, right? But a young guy, with the right organization and alot of luck, can come in and compete right away and be the missing piece to a already built squad. With a powerful run game and a stifling defense, the sky could actually be the limit. 

 

Just asking for opinions. Not really giving one. 

[WelshSkinsFan]

42 minutes ago, Monk4thaHALL said:

 

Contract extension.

34.47 is but a fraction of the 90+ million guaranteed on the life of a 5 year extension. 

 

True but we lose a lot of leverage.  Not saying Denver won't try to trade and work out a LTD but unless we are genuinely willing to pay him the tag and face FA again next year then we are in a position where Denver can lowball us all they like and compensation is unlikely to get above a 3. 

 

Transition tag is best option but the FO seem to be afraid of it.  The team most likely to dump a massive contract in front of Kirk under the transition tag is Cleveland and I highly doubt he would consider joining them.  Kirk has to be a willing participant to any contract under the transition tag and so that would most likely be Denver or the Jags and we then would have the option to match and Kirk would have to stay if we chose to do that.  I don't see Denver or Jacksonville offering crazy money.

[LuRedskins]

5 minutes ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

 

True but we lose a lot of leverage.  Not saying Denver won't try to trade and work out a LTD but unless we are genuinely willing to pay him the tag and face FA again next year then we are in a position where Denver can lowball us all they like and compensation is unlikely to get above a 3. 

 

Transition tag is best option but the FO seem to be afraid of it.  The team most likely to dump a massive contract in front of Kirk under the transition tag is Cleveland and I highly doubt he would consider joining them.  Kirk has to be a willing participant to any contract under the transition tag and so that would most likely be Denver or the Jags and we then would have the option to match and Kirk would have to stay if we chose to do that.  I don't see Denver or Jacksonville offering crazy money.

 

We could always take the risk that he truely wouldn’t sign with a team like the browns just because they offer a bunch of money. Then if the broncos or jags manage to get an offer together around the 30m/year that we clearly don’t want to pay, we could match and trade him somewhere else that’s willing to pay, like Cleveland.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Problem with the franchise tag is fo wants to appear to really admire kirk, to get him to sign a team friendly contract, low guarantees,  but hey buddy, don't worry about that, we like you so much"

 

It won't work, but, if they offer a transition tag it's basically saying "hey, we'd like to keep you on the cheap but if you got to go you got to go" makes signing an ltd even harder, even if no one matches the offer this year.

30 minutes ago, LuRedskins said:

 

We could always take the risk that he truely wouldn’t sign with a team like the browns just because they offer a bunch of money. Then if the broncos or jags manage to get an offer together around the 30m/year that we clearly don’t want to pay, we could match and trade him somewhere else that’s willing to pay, like Cleveland.

 

 

That's nasty.  

[drowland]

30 minutes ago, LuRedskins said:

 

We could always take the risk that he truely wouldn’t sign with a team like the browns just because they offer a bunch of money. Then if the broncos or jags manage to get an offer together around the 30m/year that we clearly don’t want to pay, we could match and trade him somewhere else that’s willing to pay, like Cleveland.

 

You realize if Kirk's on the transition tag and signs an offer sheet with another team there will be certain language in that contract which won't favor the Redskins.  There will be a no trade clause so the Redskins can't do what you suggest.  Other teams aren't in the business of negotiating contracts that favor the Redskins. 

[Veryoldschool]

Earlier I voted in the poll that the Skins would let Cousins go and pick up a 3rd down pick as compensation.  Now I think Snyder would be afraid to do this because cutting Cousins loose requires making a controversial decision that could adversely affect ticket sales.  If Snyder makes a decision to release Cousins he also takes real ownership for any major decline in 2018.  I think Snyder opts to take the cowardly way out and uses the transition tag on Kirk instead.

 

Applying the transition tag to Cousins would block Cousins from leaving to a highly attractive franchise on a moderately priced deal, a scenario that would be embarrassing for Snyder.  I think it would be far less embarrassing and therefore more defensible for Snyder to decline matching a huge deal with a desperate franchise.  I think Cousins is only interested in upgrading to a Super Bowl contender and probably willing to do so at a more moderate rate than staying with the Redskins.

 

Snyder has a much better sense of how Cousins really feels about staying with the Skins than us.  If Snyder know Cousins is feed up and doesn't want to do a LTD with the Skins, I highly doubt Snyder will apply the 34M FT when he gains a significant amount of retention control with the transition tag for 29M.  Using the FT will not lead to trade because Cousins will want to play for 34M in 2018 and therefore be unwilling to negotiate a LTD with the acquiring club.

[UKskins]

If Kirk does go - here's a nice summary from Hogs Haven of the QB prospects in the draft. I have to say, I agree with much of what is written here. We all know that drafting a QB is a bit of a shot in the dark, and has potential to go south real fast; but if you are going to take that shot in the dark, take it this year when at least there's a lot of targets you might hit on.

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/1/4/16849036/2018-quarterback-draft-class-has-been-set-redskins-have-a-decision-to-make

 

[theTruthTeller]

Thought for the day:

Five players on the team are paid a top five (average over the contract) salary at their position: Williams (LT), Moses (RT), Norman (all DBs), Reed (TE), and Cousins (QB).  Yet only Cousins gets blamed for every loss, even though everyone else on that list makes at least as many game changing mistakes as Cousins.  I get that, because the quarterback has the power to do something remarkable on every play - or at least set up the opportunity for another player to make a great play.  And he's supposed to use his super powers to cover up everyone else's mistakes. What I don't get is the idea that just anyone can jump into that position.  You can't have it both ways - if you are going to blame Cousins for not being remarkable enough, please don't tell me that we'd be just as good with McCoy or a rookie picked in the middle of the first round.  If that were the case, Cousins would have been gone $44M ago.

 

NFL QB is one of the highest salaried positions in all of sports and the most high profile.  Yet, at no point in my lengthy football life, in a country with 125 million males who grow up playing football, have there ever been more than 10 QBs that are considered to be really good - usually it's more like 3 or 4.  If Cousins goes (or, more appropriately, when Cousins goes), we start over with very little time left before the window closes on our other top players.  In three years, Williams will be retired,  Norman will be 33yo, Reed will be a sideline reporter for ESPN, and we won't have a first round draft choice until 2028 because we traded them all away to get QBs who BA thought could start as rookies, but really needed to be developed.  Window closed and boarded up.

 

The Bruce Allen Redskins are kind of like "It's a Wonderful Life", except a version where Henry Potter (played by Dan Snyder) makes a deal with the devil (played by Bruce Allen) to knock off Clarence (played by SM) before he can save George (played by Kirk "Kurt" Cousins).

 

And "Happy New Year" to everyone!  This board is the only thing that keeps me insane!

[RemoveSnyder]

2 hours ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

True but we lose a lot of leverage.  Not saying Denver won't try to trade and work out a LTD but unless we are genuinely willing to pay him the tag and face FA again next year then we are in a position where Denver can lowball us all they like and compensation is unlikely to get above a 3. 

 

Transition tag is best option but the FO seem to be afraid of it.  The team most likely to dump a massive contract in front of Kirk under the transition tag is Cleveland and I highly doubt he would consider joining them.  Kirk has to be a willing participant to any contract under the transition tag and so that would most likely be Denver or the Jags and we then would have the option to match and Kirk would have to stay if we chose to do that.  I don't see Denver or Jacksonville offering crazy money.

 

I don't have the energy to deconstruct what's written here. But, you're missing key elements pertaining to the transition tag.

 

As for all the ancillary and superficial stuff brought up about leverage, and what another team would or would not do, and whatever else, it's based from a flawed understanding of the rights and privileges afforded to each party by way of either option.

 

 

I don't want to travel down each rabbit hole you've created there but I'll simply say this, in general:

What matters to any team in the NFL is who your staring QB is for the next upcoming season. And further, does that QB give you a chance at winning?

 

Not two, or three, or four years from now, but next year, 2018. 

Because HCs and GMs are fired based upon the results of one season. It doesn't matter that the HC or GM say to the owner, "hey, just wait until 2019 and we'll get it right ..." Sorry pal, out on your ass you go. 

 

If a team wants Cousins, that want exists in of itself, alone and independent. It doesn't matter, for example, that Cousins becomes a free agent in 2019 after a (theoretical) franchise tag, because there is no guarantee that, (said team of interest), will be able to out-bid everyone else who wants to get Cousins in an open-market solicitation when it gets to 2019.

 

What matters is the now. What matters is 2018.

 

 

It's not, never has been, cut and dry with regards to the transition. There are options within options for Cousins and McCartney if given the transition.

One key element people fail to calculate is Time. 

 

Now, I know theoretical physicists say that Time is an illusion and it is really a human construct derived out of our limited perception and experience of what we call reality. But Time is integral regarding any negotiation that occurs, particularly after, for example, the transition. 

 

 

Unfortunately most of the people that argue vehemently for the transition against the franchise are often the ones who don't understand the rules and regulations governing the rights afforded to each party.

 

I could cite endless posts from this thread where folks are unaware that the non-exclusive franchise tag does not exist. But yet they misinterpret what others have written regarding the franchise tag, and then construct some false narrative based upon a misperception of the ... "rules and regulations."

 

 

And what's more, the reason why there have been a rash of recent articles written about the transition, posted here in this thread and in others, is because the reporters are running with what they hear from the drum beats in the forest.

 

They're running with what they hear the FO is planning. That's why dozens of reporters are all talking about the transition. So, no, your claim that the Redskins are afraid of the transition is false. 

 

I'll reiterate what I've written before, the transition is the stupidest option available. And that makes perfect sense to me why the FO is favoring it. If it's convoluted and dumb, this FO picks it. 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I think Cousins walks eventually and doesn't play here in 2018. And, based on where we are currently, that might be the right choice. 

 

The front office won't fail by refusing to sign Cousins to a $30M/year contract. The front office failed by not allowing its scouts or talent evaluators to sign Cousins to a forward-looking, more appropriate deal in 2015. They created this market for Cousins by tagging him twice. 

 

But again, given where we are, it's not ridiculous to not want to allocate 15% of your cap to Cousins when you have so many other issues going on and he may or may not be a product of Gruden's system. Simply stated, if you can get 75% of the production at 50% of the cost, it's the right move with this roster. 

[WelshSkinsFan]

I have read repeatedly from Keim and others that the transition is not viewed as an option so I would argue that your claim that my statement was false is um false.

 

The original point remains that there is a perception that the exclusive tag will bring about offers including first round draft picks and I firmly believe that won't happen.  If a team is going to swallow an enormous contract to sign Kirk they are not going to hamstring themselves by giving up prime draft picks also.  Cleveland could afford to do it but they won't, they will almost certainly sign McCarron and draft someone with the number 1 pick, both of whom combined would probably cost less than Kirk alone.

 

Denver may prioritize a QB but they don't have vast amounts of cap space and have other holes to fill.  If they are going to pay Kirk they are going to need those top picks to plug the other gaps on their roster, Elway is not going to be Santa Claus in negotiations with Bruce and it is laughable to think he would be.  It also bears repeating that at least 1 and possibly 2 of the guys in the Vikings QB room will be available also and will be cheaper than Cousins and an upgrade over what Denver currently has.  Leverage therefore exists, Kirk is not the only choice so if we don't want a low pick we can pay him $34 million and Denver will move to plan B.

 

You mention you could cite endless posts where people misunderstand the options and rules regarding the various tags, you are right and you are also not exempt from misunderstanding.  On a couple of points there has been fierce debate and a real attempt to dive into the rules and guess what, they are vague and contradictory and in many cases a clear definition can't be found.

 

To repeat, we are not getting a first round pick from Denver or anyone for Kirk and we need to wake up and accept that that is not an option in any of these scenarios.

 

[Unbias]

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

Question: Is drafting a young QB in todays NFL a good long term move or a win now move? 

 

For color - my thinking is that you will have to pay the dude anyway. So long term you are just pushing the money back to another year, right? But a young guy, with the right organization and alot of luck, can come in and compete right away and be the missing piece to a already built squad. With a powerful run game and a stifling defense, the sky could actually be the limit. 

 

Just asking for opinions. Not really giving one. 

 

To your question it is a good long term move. Ideally you'd get 2-3 seasons of 'franchise' QB play on a rookie contract. This is the ideal situation, but I'd also say you have to have a lot of faith in your organizations ability to pick the right player and develop him. For all the development that the Skins were a part of remember we also swung big and missed with RG3, so it's not like we can lean on that as a strength. 

 

I'm not sure what you mean by 'pushing the money back to another year'? Can you clarify? 

[cakmoney61]

I can imagine only one team being willing to trade a first-round pick and pay $30M a year to Cousins and that's Cleveland.  And with all the QBs coming out in this year's draft and FAs, I don't really see that as a possibility.  I'm thinking it's an LTD or nothing.

 

Either scenario is fine with me.  I just want to get off this merry-go-round.  Two years of this nonsense is enough.

[Voice_of_Reason]

When is that Cousins expose with 106.7?  Is that today or tomorrow?

[Tay]

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

When is that Cousins expose with 106.7?  Is that today or tomorrow?

Tomorrow