Election 2017 Thread

[TradeTheBeal!]

Sooooo...those khaki torch marches really got out the vote.

[No Excuses]

15 minutes ago, twa said:

 

The ones wanting student loan forgiveness and to stay on mommies health plan?  

 

Are they gonna pay for Medicaid expansion or hope for someone else to there too?

Enjoy your choices.

 

 

 

"Your"? No. An American choice. 

 

An american choice that we will no longer treat healthcare as a privilege. 

 

People are choosing to be pro-life, just not in a way you want them to. Oops.

[88Comrade2000]

Good start. Hopefully, this carries over to 2018.

 

One thing the Dems most focus on, local and states races. I would say that's even  more important than getting control of the U.S. House & Senate. Getting control would be nice, but we've seen Trump can't pass anything major.  The Dems need to be in control or at least partial control; of as many state & local positions as possible.  They need to have a seat when the new lines are drawn in 2021. The Dems can't let the GOP have another decade of control.  You know the 2020 census will probably been the most inaccurate census there has been in a long time.  Trump & the GOP will make sure the census doesn't count everyone. Trump will not even fund the census properly.

 

I think the Dems can win the House back in 2018 and I think they could even win the Senate, if there's a huge Democratic wave.  Pitfalls, what does the Bernie wing do?  The Bernie wing is the real base of the Democratic party now and that's where the energy lies.  Will they support non-Bernie Dems?  For all the talk about the GOP civil war, the Dems have their own problems.  After all, look at the state of the party right now.   Also, the base wants impeachment to be a focus for next years races.  I think everyone knows, the Dems win the House; Trump is impeached.  He won't be removed but will be impeached.  Does talking about impeachment next year help the Dems?  Or will that help the GOP?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hersh]

The Bernie wing is most definitely NOT the base of the Democratic party.  

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, Hersh said:

The Bernie wing is most definitely NOT the base of the Democratic party.  

 

I think you're right.  The core constituencies of the Democratic party are ethnic and religious minorities, LGBTQ folks, young and middle class professionals like teachers and nurses.

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

So the question then is what drove that turnout - and will that trend continue in 2018 and beyond.

 

Its not just that Democratic candidates won, its the margin of victories and as you say turnout numbers and specifically who turned out. 

 

Still a very high bar for the Democrats to capture the House in 2018 though given the seats up for election are heavily weighted as incumbent Democrat seats. But if the trends we saw yesterday hold up (and Trump keeps being a moron - which is highly likely since that's what he has been for 70 odd years) there is a decent chance they could pull that off.

 

IMO, 3 things drove turnout:

 

1. Trumps character/white nationalism love

2. The disastrous health repeal proposals. 

3. The bigly unpopular tax bill. 

 

Really 2 and 3 could be merged into all the disastrous proposals coming out of the administration/Congress which have been deeply unpopular. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think you're right.  The core constituencies of the Democratic party are ethnic and religious minorities, LGBTQ folks, young and middle class professionals like teachers and nurses.

 

It's certainly significantly more diverse than the GOP.  

[Corcaigh]

31 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Sooooo...those khaki torch marches really got out the vote.

 

 

The affluent libtards I know in northern Virginia took notice of that. However, half the population still stayed home.

[twa]

36 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

"Your"? No. An American choice. 

 

An american choice that we will no longer treat healthcare as a privilege. 

 

People are choosing to be pro-life, just not in a way you want them to. Oops.

 

 

People chose Trump too. 

 

your Trump

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Hersh said:

 

IMO, 3 things drove turnout:

 

1. Trumps character/white nationalism love

2. The disastrous health repeal proposals. 

3. The bigly unpopular tax bill. 

 

Really 2 and 3 could be merged into all the disastrous proposals coming out of the administration/Congress which have been deeply unpopular. 

 

Polling of those who voted yesterday showed the top issues they were concerned about were healthcare and gun control. Now that is specific to the areas who had elections yesterday but still interesting. I'm English but live in Arizona, if you asked me what are the two issues that America has totally lost the plot on it would be healthcare and gun control.

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, twa said:

 

 

People chose Trump too. 

 

your Trump

 

Your mistake is your own.

[No Excuses]

18 minutes ago, twa said:

 

 

People chose Trump too. 

 

your Trump

 

Key difference being that in this case, the majority lost. 

 

And even then, progressive solutions to America's worst problems seem to be in demand. Case in point: the utter failure of ACA repeal, and the continued public approval of Medicaid expansion.

[Jumbo]

I still associate the dems with a long-held standard of woefully inept political strategery

 

Since last night I keep seeing a nothing-but-annoying Tom Perez chirping away like an empty-headed bird actually take some of the energy away and make me feel like the dems have zero chance if their leaders are on camera too much (pelosi, schumer, ellison, warner, even if you're a fan of their positives, on camera they all suck to 8 out of 10 civilians--i do like tamala on camera). It will have to be all grassroots and truly strong candidates being fielded.

[PleaseBlitz]

4 hours ago, StillUnknown said:

 

if they have stuck by him through "grab them by the ****" and all this **** with Russia, they're pretty much in it for the long haul.  I'm not sure a "turning point" exists at this point, at least not in my eyes

 

i'm not giving anybody credit for finally "seeing the light" at this stage.

 

Agreeing with StillU, Trump is not getting impeached yall.  If the R's will tolerate him to this point, there is just nothing that they won't tolerate, up to and including collusion with the Russians.  At this point, the Trump base has been told by Trump/Fox News/Breitbart that the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt, therefore they will not care about any of its determinations.  R's will do as their base wants so they can stay in DC.  Period.

 

The ONLY outcome that ousts Trump is if Mueller gets Jared/Ivanka/Trump Jr. dead to rights on a state felony.  Trump can't pardon them on a state charge.  A deal might get worked out where he steps down in exchange for his family not going to jail.  That is the only outcome that I can see where Trump does not finish his term, and I wouldn't bet on it.  

 

Bottom line, Trumpism has to be defeated at the ballet box.  Yesterday was a good start, but was only a start.  

[Burgold]

12 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

I still associate the dems with a long-held standard of woefully inept political strategery

 

Since last night I keep seeing a nothing-but-annoying Tom Perez chirping away like an empty-headed bird actually take some of the energy away and make me feel like the dems have zero chance if their leaders are on camera too much (pelosi, schumer, ellison, warner, even if you're a fan of their positives, on camera they all suck to 8 out of 10 civilians--i do like tamala on camera). It will have to be all grassroots and truly strong candidates being fielded.

I agree. Dems are often woefully bad at the public relations side of politics. I think, by and large, they're just not cut throat enough or "the ends justifies the means" enough. Even  though Northam won, he was so boring. We used to joke that Al Gore was wooden, but this guy... On the other hand, like Kaine he seems earnest, but watching paint is more inspiring.

[Voice_of_Reason]

32 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

I still associate the dems with a long-held standard of woefully inept political strategery

I agree, except I might elevate the point to the dems biggest problem is that they have no strategy. 

 

Say what you want about the GOP, in the end, they come together.  2/3 of them hate Trump.  But they voted for him anyway, why, because of the (R) next to his name on the ballot.  You could argue that about 2/3 of the Dems hated Hillary.  The difference?  They DIDN'T vote for her because of the (D) next to her name.

 

I really truly have no idea what the platform of the Democratic Party is.  That African American woman (who I think was fired from CNN for some reason? I don't remember) was on MSNBC last night, and the host asked her what the Democratic Party stood for, and she said, "blah blah, chance for all people, party of inclusion, blah blah blah."  The host said, "Well, isn't that the same party line that has been thumped down-ballot consistently for 20 years?"  And she "blah-blahed" on some more.

 

About the only thing I know about the Democratic party is that they are for winning.  And they are against anybody else winning.  (That's a quote from The West Wing.)

 

As far as platform, they are

1. For Gun Control

2. Pro-choice

3. ... Oppose whatever Trump says on Immigration

4. ... Oppose whatever the GOP says on Healthcare

5. ... economic policy is a complete mystery, though I think they're still "the top 1% need to do a little more" as their main economic plan. Which is fundamentally a STUPID strategy AND a STUPID policy.

 

Oh, and when you combine #1 and #2, you just lost the entire middle of the Country.  

 

This is not a strategy.  It's a reaction.  And the reason that they won last night is because a lot of voters (like myself) are going to vote against anything associated with Trump.  We're just going to go the other way, and hope it works out until he's out of office.  

 

That might work in an election or two, but it's not sustainable.

[twa]

What's a Tamala?

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 minutes ago, twa said:

What's a Tamala?

 

 

"What the **** is a Lami?"

"He was my friend. And he killed him." 

 

I think "What the **** is a Lami" might by my overall favorite Game of Thrones line in the entire run of the show. Just cracks me up.

 

[Predicto]

16 hours ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Nancy Pelosi is going to be the next Speaker

 

Don't underestimate the outright hatred for Trump that's out there.

 

Gerrymandering and urban/rural demographics make that extremely unlikely.

 

But if it happens (and I personally like Nancy Pelosi) but I hope she is smart enough to pass the baton to someone else.  She has been a target for mindless conservative mud throwing for almost as long as Hillary Clinton, and at this point, she is too easy of a symbol for the GOP to rally their base against.

[No Excuses]

10 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

As far as platform, they are

1. For Gun Control

2. Pro-choice

3. ... Oppose whatever Trump says on Immigration

4. ... Oppose whatever the GOP says on Healthcare

5. ... economic policy is a complete mystery, though I think they're still "the top 1% need to do a little more" as their main economic plan. Which is fundamentally a STUPID strategy AND a STUPID policy.

 

Oh, and when you combine #1 and #2, you just lost the entire middle of the Country.  

 

This is not a strategy.  It's a reaction.  And the reason that they won last night is because a lot of voters (like myself) are going to vote against anything associated with Trump.  We're just going to go the other way, and hope it works out until he's out of office.  

 

That might work in an election or two, but it's not sustainable.

 

Some of this is fundamentally not true, especially on healthcare.

 

The Democrat platform on healthcare is pretty clear, that it aims to increase insurance coverage, particularly towards the poor and working class, through Medicaid expansion. Something that has been achieved in a lot of states so far, and was just passed in another last night.

 

And you very clearly see many Dems taking Medicaid expansion a step further, and outright calling for single-payer.

 

The only issue on that list where Democrats are truly incoherent, is immigration. Support for immigrants doesn't necessarily mean you have a toothless conversation on immigration reform. And I think they stand to improve significantly by offering a vision that is immigrant friendly, but also realistically addresses the concerns of immigration skeptics.

 

Also last night, you saw real movement against the GOP on gun reform. I know it seems small at the moment, but gun reform groups are finally starting to make a dent in our local/state elections. It isn't as apparent because the NRA is a behemoth in the DC lobbying circle, but VA saw lots of gun reform advocates win across the state. This also happened in NJ.

[Going Commando]

8 minutes ago, Burgold said:

I agree. Dems are often woefully bad at the public relations side of politics. I think, by and large, they're just not cut throat enough or "the ends justifies the means" enough. Even  though Northam won, he was so boring. We used to joke that Al Gore was wooden, but this guy... On the other hand, like Kaine he seems earnest, but watching paint is more inspiring.

 

Virginians are boring.  This is not New York or California.  This is the stately Old Dominion.  Nova is different than the rest of the state.  It may be dynamic, media-savvy, diverse, and white collar, but the rest of VA is bifurcated, blue collar, Southern, traditional, White, and genteel.  Mark Warner was one of the most popular and respected VA governors of my lifetime (even Republicans liked him) and he is the definition of boring, polite, and serious.  That is what we want in our public officials--flamboyance and wit are not strengths here.  Northam is an honest country-boy from the Eastern Shore.  He's going to be fine in VA politics, the state Democrats seem to really like him. 

 

You have to understand that VA was founded and settled by people aping the English country gentry.  That character still exists here.  We've expected our leaders and elites to develop a proper public posture of "condescension" since the 1600's.  Not the modern meaning of condescension, the Colonial meaning: members of the gentry were expected to do things like tip their caps to every member of the public they passed on the street, no matter how low in rank they were.  That expectation that social elites present themselves seriously and be conscientiously polite is still around, particularly in the Eastern half of the state.  I think it's one of the reasons why Trump doesn't play well here.

[Jumbo]

14 minutes ago, twa said:

What's a Tamala?

 

 

 

 

kamala (harris), and believe it or not that's my keyboarding skills...i can mix letters clear across the board...it's like watching a spider monkey being tazered...

[Bacon]

52 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Agreeing with StillU, Trump is not getting impeached yall.  If the R's will tolerate him to this point, there is just nothing that they won't tolerate, up to and including collusion with the Russians.  At this point, the Trump base has been told by Trump/Fox News/Breitbart that the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt, therefore they will not care about any of its determinations.  R's will do as their base wants so they can stay in DC.  Period.

 

The ONLY outcome that ousts Trump is if Mueller gets Jared/Ivanka/Trump Jr. dead to rights on a state felony.  Trump can't pardon them on a state charge.  A deal might get worked out where he steps down in exchange for his family not going to jail.  That is the only outcome that I can see where Trump does not finish his term, and I wouldn't bet on it.  

 

Bottom line, Trumpism has to be defeated at the ballet box.  Yesterday was a good start, but was only a start.  

 

I agree with both of you, but there will be a price to pay for their decision to go down with the ship, and that price will be paid in 2018. Pundits were trying their best to minimize the possible losses taken in the mid-term elections, but it's going to be an absolute disaster. Yesterday was just the beginning. 

 

It took the GOP 8 years to feel a pulse after Bush. It's going to take even longer to recover from their decision to play out the string with Trump. Not only do democrats and independents resent these people, but conservatives are feeling betrayed. It's an increasingly small fraction of the US that supports Trumpism (populism, but dumber and less moral) and it's a grave mistake to double down on a base that small.

[Burgold]

10 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

As far as platform, they are

1. For Gun Control

2. Pro-choice

3. ... Oppose whatever Trump says on Immigration

4. ... Oppose whatever the GOP says on Healthcare

5. ... economic policy is a complete mystery, though I think they're still "the top 1% need to do a little more" as their main economic plan. Which is fundamentally a STUPID strategy AND a STUPID policy.

 

 

So, I don't speak for the party, but here's what I see the big Democratic Platform Issues as being (not in any particular order)

 

Gun Control

Healthcare (universal health care ultimately, but Obamacare in the short term)

Environment (clean water, pollution control, climate change)

Pro science and R&D

Free internet and Free Communications

Educational Opportunity

Economic Equity (though I'm not quite sure what I mean by that)

Safety Nets

Prevention of all sorts (economic, health, and terrorism, etc.)

[PleaseBlitz]

1 minute ago, Bacon said:

 

I agree with both of you, but there will be a price to pay for their decision to go down with the ship and that price will be paid in 2018. Pundits were trying their best to minimize the possible losses taken in the mid-term elections, but it's going to be an absolute disaster. Yesterday was just the beginning. 

 

 

This was my point.  Dems need to keep up the incredible energy on display yesterday and in many of the special elections earlier in the year through 2018.  My concern is that Dems see yesterday as a sign that they can go back to being complacent / in-fight / not rally around the nominee because that person isn't their first choice.  If they manage that, 2018 will be another clown pounding. 

[Burgold]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

boring, polite, and serious. 

That's actually a really great profile for a politician and why so many of my first choices never make it out of the primaries.