A Confidence I Haven't Had in 25 Years

[cakmoney61]

My confidence has not yet waned in this team.  They are ranked 9th offensively and 12th defensively while playing a relentlessly difficult schedule with no real let up in sight...with numerous key injuries.

 

IMHO, their 3-3 record is nothing to be worried about, because it could have been so much worse.  The injured getting well and Gruden doing a better job of calling plays has been and will continue to be the most important keys for success in 2017.

[Mr. Sinister]

10 hours ago, LaxBuddy21 said:

Come out these next two games 5-3 or at worst 4-4 and competitive in both with all our injuries and you will see a shift in the overall confidence. It's recency bias. That's all. 

 

Maybe for most. Im probably just gonna have to wait for the clock to hit 0:00 in Wk 17.

[Paul Cumberland]

12 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

You already know what will happen

 

12 hours ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Losing to the 1-14 Giants week 17 to miss the playoffs. 

 

11 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

Or worse, blowing a game earlier, having nothing to play for, and still losing anyway

 

Or even worse...  After having a top-5 pick secured, we win against the Giants and have to trade 2 1sts and a 2nd to be able to obtain the QB of choice.

[LavarArringtonMachine]

38 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

 

 

Or even worse...  After having a top-5 pick secured, we win against the Giants and have to trade 2 1sts and a 2nd to be able to obtain the QB of choice.

 

You mean a QB of choice that is only good in some gimmicky 3 play offense who turns out to be the biggest draft day bust in NFL history....   nah, we dont want those problems again.

[88Comrade2000]

I am confident the Redskins are mediocre. I am also confident that the Redskins will never go beyond mediocre; under the ownership of Dan Snyder.

 

What you are seeing now, will be the best that Snyder will achieve.  A team that hovers around the 7-9 win mark. A team that does flirt with making the playoffs. Maybe one year they get in, the next year they don't. The team won't achieve much if they make the playoffs.

Maybe in a fluke year, they got hot and ride that all the way to the Superbowl win. See the Giants.

 

This team will never be a consistent double digit winner. 10 or more wins. This team will not be a consistent playoff participant. See the Colts under Manning, the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, etc.  We will never be like that.

 

We've traded misery for mediocre.   I don't see us ever trading mediocre for anything higher. 

Enjoy our mediocrity because the next round misery is right around the corner; maybe as soon as 2018.

 

[kleese]

19 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I am confident the Redskins are mediocre. I am also confident that the Redskins will never go beyond mediocre; under the ownership of Dan Snyder.

 

What you are seeing now, will be the best that Snyder will achieve.  A team that hovers around the 7-9 win mark. A team that does flirt with making the playoffs. Maybe one year they get in, the next year they don't. The team won't achieve much if they make the playoffs.

Maybe in a fluke year, they got hot and ride that all the way to the Superbowl win. See the Giants.

 

This team will never be a consistent double digit winner. 10 or more wins. This team will not be a consistent playoff participant. See the Colts under Manning, the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, etc.  We will never be like that.

 

We've traded misery for mediocre.   I don't see us ever trading mediocre for anything higher. 

Enjoy our mediocrity because the next round misery is right around the corner; maybe as soon as 2018.

 

 

I think that's a little of the glass is half empty approach, but I also think it's a fairly reasonable conclusion. I don't have a huge issue with it. For me, the encouragement comes from the fact that this is the FIRST time we've done this-- the first time we've reached this level of consistency. And I am also encouraged by our vastly improved personnel evaluation and player development outcomes. There really aren't that many organizations that are consistently double-digit win franchise and always in the mix at the top. The ones that are generally have all-time great, elite, HOF QBs. If we ever stumbled into one of those, we might become an organization like that.

 

I would agree that it is more likely that we hover around mediocrity and maybe have some years a little better or a little worse. But you even mention getting hot and getting to a Super Bowl. But for me, I'd be more than happy with that. Generally competitive? Pretty close to average? Occasional seasons where we make a deeper run? I'm OK with that- it's honestly how most of the league operates. For so long we were in a realm far below that-- for now, I'm happy not to be there anymore. We are still in the middle of this current process IMO-- we will see what the rest of 2017 and into 2108 holds. If we dip back to "misery" this year or next then no doubt it will be hard to maintain much faith.

[LaxBuddy21]

Hovering around mediocrity allows for consistency. Consistency allows you to continue to build roster depth through the draft. Hitting on one or two elite pieces in the draft and plugging them into the system can easily take you to that next level. Imagine we end up hitting with Doctson and Kirk develops a connection with him. Imagine we get a solid running back that can change a game. Imagine one disruptive pass rusher. What would any or all of those things do to the outlook on a season? That could easily push us to a 10-12 win season on the regular. When you suck consistently, you blow things up and have to start over. You end up with short term solutions and too many variables. I'm much more comfortable where we are than where we were.

[kleese]

6 minutes ago, LaxBuddy21 said:

Hovering around mediocrity allows for consistency. Consistency allows you to continue to build roster depth through the draft. Hitting on one or two elite pieces in the draft and plugging them into the system can easily take you to that next level. Imagine we end up hitting with Doctson and Kirk develops a connection with him. Imagine we get a solid running back that can change a game. Imagine one disruptive pass rusher. What would any or all of those things do to the outlook on a season? That could easily push us to a 10-12 win season on the regular. When you suck consistently, you blow things up and have to start over. You end up with short term solutions and too many variables. I'm much more comfortable where we are than where we were.

 

Very, very well said. Going 4-12 every other year probably means you have a bunch of players that aren't NFL-worthy. It also probably means you are in a constant state of upheaval, transition, and change. If you are consistently producing teams who have a BASEMENT of 7-8 wins, it means you aren't that far away. Like you said, you are probably just a few players or breaks away from cracking in to the higher 10+ win level. Even if it's a fleeting 11-5 season and you go back to 9-7 the next year, that's pretty good. Where we are now is a comfortable spot for me. At least way more comfortable than the previous 25-ish years.

 

For example, I am not confident this week, but I am also not filled with dread. I think we will probably play fairly well with whoever we have out there. I don't expect us to mess ourselves down our pant legs. And even if we fall to 3-5 (which I think is very possible) I won't totally be done then either. That's what the recent change in culture has done for me-- I'm more confident overall across the board. If we are 3-5, I could still see us bouncing back to 6-5. I no longer watch Redskins game with a feeling of impending doom.

[NickyJ]

1 hour ago, LavarArringtonMachine said:

 

You mean a QB of choice that is only good in some gimmicky 3 play offense who turns out to be the biggest draft day bust in NFL history....   nah, we dont want those problems again.

As bad as we've been, we've never traded for a JaWalrus, thankfully.

[XxSpearheadxX]

3 hours ago, NickyJ said:

As bad as we've been, we've never traded for a JaWalrus, thankfully.

So fat, so sloppy. Even Dr. Jon Gruden was slobbering over RG3. He had a brain. He had an arm. He had Olympic caliber sprinter speed. He also had stiff hips and narcissism that wouldn't put in the work to stay humble and learn NFL. He wasn't a dumb person at all, just wasn't humble enough to realize he didn't know it all. 

 

The eagles loss hurts but much much less than I thought it would. Hurts like a nice session on the toilet. Sometimes you just gotta get it out. 

[skinfan2k]

3 losses to the eagles and cheifs.  Wake me up when they lose to a team not in the top 5 in the nfl

[Diehard Otis]

1 hour ago, skinfan2k said:

3 losses to the eagles and cheifs.  Wake me up when they lose to a team not in the top 5 in the nfl

Thank You!

 

I know gloom-and-doom is an involuntary instinct for (too many) Skins Fans.  But when you actually look at our season, our "mediocre" record is based on playing one helluva schedule to date.  

 

I'm with @kleese: I'm excited about this Team (but apprehensive of the accelerating volume of injuries).  I fully expect us to be one tough out once we get reasonably healthy.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

If the injury report wasn't over capacity with starters and our next opponents weren't as good as they are, optimism would be higher.

 

Its entirely possible this team is better than last years and we won't know it by the standings.  It's brutal.

[TradeTheBeal!]

9 hours ago, skinfan2k said:

3 losses to the eagles and cheifs.  Wake me up when they lose to a team not in the top 5 in the nfl

 

We were thoroughly outplayed at home in the second half by the 0-7 49ers and really had no business winning that game.

[Riggo'sRangers]

55 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

We were thoroughly outplayed at home in the second half by the 0-7 49ers and really had no business winning that game.

Sadly this is the truth.  We hung on, barely.  True confidence will take time for me, but we have made inroads. We shall see as there is a long season still ahead.  I do know this Sundays game is crucial for the season at hand.  Hope springs eternal. Hail

[skins island connection]

I was hoping to have a lot of confidence this year, but I have to look at reality from my perspective.

1. Defense is playing better, but clearly nothing special without Norman.

2. Unsure about Cousins' future here.

3. Too many injuries.

4. Doubtful we make much noise unless Pryor and Doctson really step it up, and fast.

5. We get something that resembles a running game.

 

When Garcon and DJax left, I didn't have much hope, but Pryor was signed and I bought into the hype. Woes me.

I think that by the time the FO gets their heads out of you know where, the team will be picked apart in FA, and we'll be back to square 1.

[kleese]

1 hour ago, skins island connection said:

I was hoping to have a lot of confidence this year, but I have to look at reality from my perspective.

1. Defense is playing better, but clearly nothing special without Norman.

2. Unsure about Cousins' future here.

3. Too many injuries.

4. Doubtful we make much noise unless Pryor and Doctson really step it up, and fast.

5. We get something that resembles a running game.

 

When Garcon and DJax left, I didn't have much hope, but Pryor was signed and I bought into the hype. Woes me.

I think that by the time the FO gets their heads out of you know where, the team will be picked apart in FA, and we'll be back to square 1.

 

Pretty much all depends on Kirk and what we would do at QB if he isn't back. The OL is very good and none of them are going anywhere anytime soon. Still a youthful group and a few of them can probably still get better. Banged up right now, but that's a roll of the dice every year. RBs aren't great and we need to add one no doubt, but they are all young and Thompson should be a weapon for at least a few more years. WRs have been meh so far, but again there is youth and a guy like Doctson may just need some time. So overall, offensively I see this sort of as our worst we will be right now (which isn't bad) and of course the elephant in the room at QB. 

 

Simialr story on D... the DBs (especially corners) look awesome and that is unlikely to change. Even if Breeland left, we could survive his departure with all of that youth. Allen and Ioannnadis looked beastly and are in their first and second year respectively. We need to cotinue to add talent on D and all teams are always potentially faced with replacing FAs, but overall our talent pool and depth is SO SO much better than it was and we are one of the younger teams in the league. 

 

Barring some sort of crazy fall off at QB where we go from Kirk to Rex or an equivalent, I don't really see the Redskins dipping much in the coming years-- especially assuming we keep Gruden. 

[FFODC]

On 10/25/2017 at 1:59 PM, CTskin said:

We're finally normal, fighting for the playoffs consistently, and given our history it blows my mind that this is viewed as unacceptable.

Truth.

 

I don't think the criticisms are wrong but I'm just like man: This is the same franchise that fired Norv and Marty while hiring Spurrier, a bingo caller to call plays, and Cerrato.  This is the first time we have multiple guys in coaching positions that actually belong: Tomsula, Callahan, Gruden, etc. and we finally look competent.  I'm just grateful for what I'm seeing.

[cakmoney61]

25 minutes ago, kleese said:

Barring some sort of crazy fall off at QB where we go from Kirk to Rex or an equivalent, I don't really see the Redskins dipping much in the coming years-- especially assuming we keep Gruden. 

 

Loved your entire post until you said that.  For me, Gruden is a blessing and a curse.  I think his play designs are the key to the offense's success, especially Kirk Cousins', but his play calls and clock management at the end of halfs leave a lot to be desired.  If Gruden gets much better, then I too see sustained success for at least a few years.  

 

Otherwise, I 100% love and agree with your post.

[skinny21]

@kleeseTo further that point - 

 

OLB - Kerrigan and Anderson are here for a while, Smith has another year I believe (kinda expect an extension), and we'll get first crack at Galette and Murphy.  

Safety - Swearinger has a few years (and has been quite good for the team) and Nicholson looks like a true safety in his 1st year. 

Corner - Yes, Breeland and Dunbar will be FAs, but we still have a good group (and I expect at least one to return).  

 

Re-sign one of our corners and Brown (perhaps Foster and one of our OLBs too), draft a dlineman and an ILB to compete with Spaight, and this D can at minimum sustain their success, with a good chance at taking another step forward.  (I'd probably look to add another pass rusher in the draft too.) 

 

Although wr seems like the big need on offense, I'd put a bit of a premium on finding a well rounded TE.  At the least, one that blocks well and can go out on routes occasionally.  Add a guard that can compete to start and maybe a back, and this offense would be in business.  Kind of a tall order on offense, but defense it shouldn't be hard to sustain/improve.  

 

Breaking it down (and leaving Kirk out of the equation) - 

 

Musts:

WR

Re-sign Brown

 

Really should:

Re-sign a corner

Draft dline, oline

Re-sign or draft an OLB

 

Would be nice:

Draft runningback

Add a blocking TE

Re-sign Foster or draft a solid ILB

 

[kleese]

9 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

 

Loved your entire post until you said that.  For me, Gruden is a blessing and a curse.  I think his play designs are the key to the offense's success, especially Kirk Cousins', but his play calls and clock management at the end of halfs leave a lot to be desired.  If Gruden gets much better, then I too see sustained success for at least a few years.  

 

Otherwise, I 100% love and agree with your post.

 

I agree that Gruden is meh at best at game day/clock management. But I agree with Sheehan on 980- I feel like 75% or more of football coaches on all levels struggle mightily in that department. 

[Warhead36]

On 10/26/2017 at 9:55 AM, cakmoney61 said:

My confidence has not yet waned in this team.  They are ranked 9th offensively and 12th defensively while playing a relentlessly difficult schedule with no real let up in sight...with numerous key injuries.

 

IMHO, their 3-3 record is nothing to be worried about, because it could have been so much worse.  The injured getting well and Gruden doing a better job of calling plays has been and will continue to be the most important keys for success in 2017.

Yeah, I have no issue whatsoever with our record or really our overall level of play. What sucks is the injuries, I think that will derail our season more than anything, and its frustrating because there is nothing we can do about it.

14 minutes ago, kleese said:

 

I agree that Gruden is meh at best at game day/clock management. But I agree with Sheehan on 980- I feel like 75% or more of football coaches on all levels struggle mightily in that department. 

This is spot on. I watch a lot of other football and every coach sucks with time management and has iffy play calling. Mike Tomlin straight up threw a game last season going for 2 constantly. Andy Reid still can't manage a clock. Jason Garrett has Zeke and still I see him go pass pass pass in the red zone. Pete Carroll threw a SUPER BOWL by throwing on the goal line instead of pounding the best back in the league.

[cakmoney61]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Breaking it down (and leaving Kirk out of the equation) - 

 

Musts:

WR

Re-sign Brown

 

Really should:

Re-sign a corner

Draft dline, oline

Re-sign or draft an OLB

 

Would be nice:

Draft runningback

Add a blocking TE

Re-sign Foster or draft a solid ILB

 

 

skinny21, I love your breakdown.  One question:  What do you think of drafting a RB as a "must have?"  I love Thompson as the third-down back, but they seem to be void of a back that can succeed regarding the first two downs and third and short.  IMO, drafting an impact RB in the first or second round is starting to look like a must. 

[skinny21]

28 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

 

skinny21, I love your breakdown.  One question:  What do you think of drafting a RB as a "must have?"  I love Thompson as the third-down back, but they seem to be void of a back that can succeed regarding the first two downs and third and short.  IMO, drafting an impact RB in the first or second round is starting to look like a must. 

Thanks!  Tricky for me.  I feel like Kelley is a competent back, but yes, I'd love to have a high talent guy there.  Right now though, my thinking is the lack of decent blocking from the TEs is the main culprit behind our poor rushing game.  It's not just affecting outside runs either (better blocking from the receivers could help there as well), but letting guys cut between them and the tackles is messing up inside runs as well.  So yes, I could be convinced to put runningback in the 'must have' category, but until we see the above problem fixed, I think it's going to be tough to get consistent production from just about any back.  

 

All of that said, a guy that can take advantage of the holes when they are there and break the occasional big play might go a long way towards helping this offense.  

 

All just my opinion of course, I'm no expert.

 

 

Edit:  I think I just convinced myself that 'blocking TE' belongs in the 'really should' group, lol.  Here's hoping Sprinkle could be that guy.  

[cakmoney61]

3 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Thanks!  Tricky for me.  I feel like Kelley is a competent back, but yes, I'd love to have a high talent guy there.  Right now though, my thinking is the lack of decent blocking from the TEs is the main culprit behind our poor rushing game.  It's not just affecting outside runs either (better blocking from the receivers could help there as well), but letting guys cut between them and the tackles is messing up inside runs as well.  So yes, I could be convinced to put runningback in the 'must have' category, but until we see the above problem fixed, I think it's going to be tough to get consistent production from just about any back.  

 

 

The teams ability to run the ball does appear to run deeper than a lack of talent at RB.

 

Speaking of Kelley, I believe he is still battling multiple injuries.  If he can get mostly healthy, hopefully he will prove to be the man for the job at least on the third and one situations.