Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[abdcskins]

Too early for this thread imo. It doesn't matter who the president is anyway. 

[Larry]

1 minute ago, abdcskins said:

Too early for this thread imo. It doesn't matter who the president is anyway. 

 

I've never understood people who feel compelled to stick their nose into a clearly labeled thread, for the sole purpose of announcing that said topic shouldn't be discussed.  

 

I mean, for example, I have no interest whatsoever in ice hockey.  But I don't feel compelled to go into the various hockey threads so I can announce my contempt for ice hockey.  What's the point, other than trolling?  

 

[abdcskins]

1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

I've never understood people who feel compelled to stick their nose into a clearly labeled thread, for the sole purpose of announcing that said topic shouldn't be discussed.  

 

I mean, for example, I have no interest whatsoever in ice hockey.  But I don't feel compelled to go into the various hockey threads so I can announce my contempt for ice hockey.  What's the point, other than trolling?  

 

 

It was more a statement on the hopelessness of politics.  None of those people care about you.  They don't represent you.  They represent the banks and big donors.  Politics are unavailing.

 

As idiotic as Trump is, my life hasn't changed one bit since he has been president.  Won't change if Bernie Sanders is president either.  I care more about who my state senators are.  I hope Trump loses because it's embarrassing to have him as our leader.  

[CousinsCowgirl84]

19 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

 

It was more a statement on the hopelessness of politics.  None of those people care about you.  They don't represent you.  They represent the banks and big donors.  Politics are unavailing.

 

As idiotic as Trump is, my life hasn't changed one bit since he has been president.  Won't change if Bernie Sanders is president either.  I care more about who my state senators are.  I hope Trump loses because it's embarrassing to have him as our leader.  

 

 

I think you are underestimating the power of the courts. Congress doesn’t matter. The President doesn’t matter. They’ll pass laws then sue each other. The courts decide what laws are law and which ones aren’t. Donald Trump is changing the balance of the supreme court, that will have a lasting effect.

 

I think Trump on the world stage will probably have long range negative affects. I think his weakness on the world stage has crystallized an already strong china/russia relationship while simultaneously weakening the west ability to lead as a unified force.

 

Most of the west’s leadership have approval ratings under 40 percent, and donald trump continues to attack our allies.  That might not have an affect this year. But it has too, in the longer run.

[tshile]

59 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

I care more about who my state senators are

 

Wish the rest of the county did too. 

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

7 hours ago, BenningRoadSkin said:

Eff Rick Wilson.

 

I am sick and tired of people who supposedly are on the left and Democrats listening to GOP operatives like Rick Wilson, David Brooks, Bill Kristol, Peggy Noonan, etc. 

 

Donald Trump has a 90% rating with Republicans. He is not losing the Republican vote. That's gone. It's never happening. People like Wilson, David Frum, etc. are in their world. If the Democratic party wants to win in 2020, they should not listen to those losers who don't want to support Trump. I am tired of people supposedly on the Left taking stock in the opinions of people who created the current mess we have. These people are not even the centrist voter and they have no interest in supporting Democratic policies. Eff them.

None of those people are on the left.  Bill Kristol is a neocon, who gave us the Iraq War and Sarah Palin.

As for me, I'm neither left or right.

 

I know the Bernie/Warren/Cortez wing of the Democratic party feels the country has shifted to their position.  Maybe among the under 40 crowd it is shifting that way, but that group isn't the majority of the voters and it won't be in 2020.

 

Considering how awful of a President Trump has been, he should have a tough time winning.  If anyone else was president now, with this ecomony; they would be probably be at 55% to 60% approval. Alot of what the Dems are preposing is signficiant changes and the that over 40 electorate; doesn't like big change.  Kamala wants to do get rid of private insurance now.  The country isn't ready for that. 

 

The Dems nominate someone who's either to far to the left or propose to far to the left things; they won't be Trump.  Those voters won't necessarily vote for Trump, but they definitely won't vote for Bernie.

 

 

If I turn out to be wrong, I'll eat my crow on Election Night 2020. I don't think I will. I think most of the Dems running are left of where the majority of the electorate is in 2020.

 

[88Comrade2000]

5 hours ago, abdcskins said:

Too early for this thread imo. It doesn't matter who the president is anyway. 

Where were you when I started this thread back in August of 2017.  That was too early but Trump already made one look for the next one.

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bozo the kKklown]

5 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

None of those people are on the left.  Bill Kristol is a neocon, who gave us the Iraq War and Sarah Palin.

As for me, I'm neither left or right.

 

I know the Bernie/Warren/Cortez wing of the Democratic party feels the country has shifted to their position.  Maybe among the under 40 crowd it is shifting that way, but that group isn't the majority of the voters and it won't be in 2020.

 

Considering how awful of a President Trump has been, he should have a tough time winning.  If anyone else was president now, with this ecomony; they would be probably be at 55% to 60% approval. Alot of what the Dems are preposing is signficiant changes and the that over 40 electorate; doesn't like big change.  Kamala wants to do get rid of private insurance now.  The country isn't ready for that. 

 

The Dems nominate someone who's either to far to the left or propose to far to the left things; they won't be Trump.  Those voters won't necessarily vote for Trump, but they definitely won't vote for Bernie.

 

 

If I turn out to be wrong, I'll eat my crow on Election Night 2020. I don't think I will. I think most of the Dems running are left of where the majority of the electorate is in 2020.

 

You misread my post. I know exactly who those ghouls are and I don’t care about their opinions on the Democratic Party.

 

Dems will not win chasing Republican and Republican adjacent voters. That’s the mistake this party has made for 30+ years.

 

So again, Eff Bill Kristol, Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, David Brooks, Ana Navarro, David Frum, Peggy Noonan, and all of these other never Trump Republicans. I don’t care about their opinions on the Democratic Party.

[Cooked Crack]

10 hours ago, abdcskins said:

Too early for this thread imo. It doesn't matter who the president is anyway. 

This is called privilege. It matters to the people who would lose their healthcare, government workers that struggled without paycheck, families being torn apart at the border, etc. It might not make a difference in your life but plenty of folks are affected by the actions of President.

[PleaseBlitz]

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/minds-voters-middle

 

Quote

The more things happen, the more convincing is the view that 35 percent of the electorate is made up of President Trump’s hard base, 45 percent is the equally adamant opposition, and the remaining 20 percent is in the middle. Too many seem obsessed with the Trump base, asking when it will collapse (the truth is, never). Or they are fixated on the anti-Trump forces that make up almost half of the electorate, and whether it will grow or diminish. But the reality is that this group is pretty fixed in size as well. About three-quarters have made their decisions, one way or the other.

 

The focus should be on that fifth in the middle. Who are they? What makes them tick? What is going on in their minds? Excellent questions all. They tend to be independents and moderates; no demographic characteristics really jump out. One reason that they have not boarded either the Trump Train or joined the anti-Trump forces in the streets is that they don’t think about politics very much—they don’t follow it, they don’t watch cable news, they don’t read newspapers, and if they watch local news, it is as much for the weather and sports as for the news. If they had thought much about these things, they would have chosen up sides by now.

 

In terms of the president, they are cross-pressured. They may not be terribly fond of him personally or his style or all of his policies, but they have liked the economy and they tend to not like traditional politicians or the inside-the-Beltway crowd. They see Trump as saying what’s on his mind (whether he should or not), unlike normal politicians. The fact that the career politicians either hate him or are afraid to tangle with him is a positive, but they do wonder whether that prevents him from being effective. His grades on “playing well with other kids” are not good. The erratic style, the inability to stay focused on anything, and most of all, the chaos that seems to surround Trump, his White House, and administration is starting to either cause concern or wear on them.

 

They occasionally wonder whether it is time to get off this carnival ride, even if it seemed like an interesting idea back in 2016. For some who did vote for him, it was that the alternative was Hillary Clinton. At least right now, it is more up or down on him, at least until Democrats have a nominee.

 

The concept of Trump Fatigue is not relevant at all to either the Trump base or the Trump opposition. But it is to this quintile that is likely to decide this election. No matter which poll you look at, it isn’t just that more disapprove than approve; the number who strongly disapprove of him greatly exceed those who strongly approve, by a ratio of almost 1.5 to 1.

 

Trump will need to win between two-thirds and three-quarters of that middle 20 percent to be reelected. What that also means is that whoever the Democratic nominee is, if they just get a quarter or a third of that swing vote, that is likely to be enough to deny Trump 270 electoral votes. Considering that a Republican is very likely to do better in terms of the Electoral College than the popular vote, a Democrat needs to win by at least 2 or 3 points to be reasonably sure of victory. That is still a very tall order when you consider how narrow the Trump base is, and how disinclined he is to talk to those outside his base, as if they don’t exist.

 

Back in 2016, some of these swing voters liked the idea of electing a businessperson as president; after all, someone with a business ought to know more about how the economy works and how to create jobs than a career politician, right? But with the economy slowing down, with the sugar high from the tax cut now wearing off, does that unique selling proposition of having a businessperson at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue still work? If the economy is only growing at a 2 percent rate at best next year, will that benefit of the doubt still apply?

 

America First seemed like an attractive idea to these voters back in 2016, but they sense that the United States is getting more isolated, and they wonder about this idea of currying favor with our adversaries while trashing our friends, or at the very least, making life very difficult for them. While they had grown tired of America as the global policeman, they did like it that we were the world leader. The world is seeming to be a scarier place than it was two years ago. They wonder whether Trump really is on top of this foreign policy thing. Does he know what he is doing? Maybe it matters after all.

 

Increasingly, it looks like it is going to come down to whether Democrats come up with an acceptable alternative. Does the person they nominate seem to be a greater or lesser risk than the person in the White House today? The standard for these swing voters is not that the Democrat needs to be Mount Rushmore material, but should at least seem plausible and not threatening. That may well matter more than anything else.

 

[NoCalMike]

The 35% hard Trump base are likely the same 35%(approx) that thought Bush (Dubya) had done a wonderful job when he left office.  There are folks who are just born & bred in their beliefs and nothing will move them.   That is why it seems like no matter how unpopular a President is or what they might do, their support seems to bottom out around the same every time.   No one is going to "win them over."  They will vote for Trump again, they will vote for Trump Jr and/or Ivanka in 2024 if one of them should run.  Forget about them.

 

As far as Republican Never Trumpers go..........they seem to be in the most denial of all, acting like Trump alone is the problem with the GOP. 

[The Evil Genius]

50 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

The 35% hard Trump base are likely the same 35%(approx) that thought Bush (Dubya) had done a wonderful job when he left office.  There are folks who are just born & bred in their beliefs and nothing will move them.   That is why it seems like no matter how unpopular a President is or what they might do, their support seems to bottom out around the same every time.   No one is going to "win them over."  They will vote for Trump again, they will vote for Trump Jr and/or Ivanka in 2024 if one of them should run.  Forget about them.

 

As far as Republican Never Trumpers go..........they seem to be in the most denial of all, acting like Trump alone is the problem with the GOP. 

 

More damning of them (that 20%) is the not so veiled threat to stay home (or even vote for Trump...again) if the Dems nominate some more socially liberal than the norm. Because when faced with a decision between Trump and that socially liberal Democrat..the obvious thing for them is to vote Trump or not vote at all... 🙄

 

[redskinss]

On 4/10/2019 at 10:55 AM, No Excuses said:

Can I have a beer with him/her" is the absolute dumbest metric in politics but for totally ridiculous reasons, it's a real thing.

It also confuses me that everyday people wouldn't want to have a beer with people like Warren. 

I'm a blue collar union operator and I'd love to have a beer with her.

 

I had a neighbor years ago that was brilliant beyond words, he had like 3 PhD's and a library in his condo that was full of books way beyond my comprehension but he was a cool guy and I loved hanging out with him.

He taught me all sorts of things I never would have dreamed of knowing and I probably also did the same for him when I taught him how to ice fish.

 

I don't understand what makes people so insecure and afraid of things they don't know.

[PleaseBlitz]

4 minutes ago, redskinss said:

It also confuses me that everyday people wouldn't want to have a beer with people like Warren. 

I'm a blue collar union operator and I'd love to have a beer with her.

 

 

 

I'm a financial services attorney and I'd love to have a beer with her too.  I can't say that about roughly half of the democratic field.  

 

[The Evil Genius]

7 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I'm a financial services attorney and I'd love to have a beer with her too.  I can't say that about roughly half of the democratic field.  

 

 

Name names. Beto, Booker, Mayor Pete, and Grandpa Joe B all seem like regular dudes to hang with.

[nonniey]

26 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

More damning of them (that 20%) is the not so veiled threat to stay home (or even vote for Trump...again) if the Dems nominate some more socially liberal than the norm. Because when faced with a decision between Trump and that socially liberal Democrat..the obvious thing for them is to vote Trump or not vote at all... 🙄

 

Thing is, of the declared candidates, the leading candidates would fall into that more left than the norm category.  I think Biden is the Dems best bet as people would see him as more a normal Democratic candidate.

[PleaseBlitz]

21 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Name names. Beto, Booker, Mayor Pete, and Grandpa Joe B all seem like regular dudes to hang with.

 

Them plus Kamala, who I bet is super fun with a slight buzz.  No interest in Klobuchar, cranky-ass Bernie, Gillibrand, Castro, Tulsi Gabbard .  I could actually have a beer with Jay Inslee and not know it was him.  

 

Not that i think he's running, but I'd love to split an entire bottle of Makers with Terry McAuliffe.

[TradeTheBeal!]

1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Them plus Kamala, who I bet is super fun with a slight buzz.  No interest in Klobuchar, cranky-ass Bernie, Gillibrand, Castro, Tulsi Gabbard .  I could actually have a beer with Jay Inslee and not know it was him.  

 

Not that i think he's running, but I'd love to split a bottle of Makers with Terry McAuliffe.

 

You’ll get a sixer of Mich Ultra with Andrew Yang and some Rogan podcasts and YOU’LL LIKE IT!!!

[PleaseBlitz]

Just now, TryTheBeal! said:

 

You’ll get a sixer of Mich Ultra with Andrew Yang and some Rogan podcasts and YOU’LL LIKE IT!!!

 

Hard no.  😴

[No Excuses]

13 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Thing is, of the declared candidates, the leading candidates would fall into that more left than the norm category.  I think Biden is the Dems best bet as people would see him as more a normal Democratic candidate.

 

"Normal candidate" is a funny thing considering anyone who is nominated would be up against a raving lunatic who suffers from a plethora of personality disorders.

[grego]

6 hours ago, BenningRoadSkin said:

You misread my post. I know exactly who those ghouls are and I don’t care about their opinions on the Democratic Party.

 

Dems will not win chasing Republican and Republican adjacent voters. That’s the mistake this party has made for 30+ years.

 

 

 

I think rdskins2000 is right. I get the impression the far left progressives think they are the party when that isn't the case. 

 

Quote

 

The Democratic Electorate on Twitter

Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate

 

Today’s Democratic Party is increasingly perceived as dominated by its “woke” left wing. But the views of Democrats on social media often bear little resemblance to those of the wider Democratic electorate.

The outspoken group of Democratic-leaning voters on social media is outnumbered, roughly 2 to 1, by the more moderate, more diverse and less educated group of Democrats who typically don’t post political content online, according to data from the Hidden Tribes Project. This latter group has the numbers to decide the Democratic presidential nomination in favor of a relatively moderate establishment favorite, as it has often done in the past.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/08/upshot/democratic-electorate-twitter-real-life.html

 

 

Quote

 

The Democratic electorate is older, more moderate and less educated than you think

 

Still, moderates and conservatives make up about 50% of all Democrats. In the 2018 midterms, the exit polls found that moderates and conservatives made up 54% of those who voted Democratic. Pew similarly put moderate and conservative Democrats as 54% of all self-identified Democrats and independents who lean Democratic voters in 2018. Gallup's 2018 figures had moderates as 47% of all adults who self-identified as Democrats.

And while liberals make up about 50% of Democrats, many of them are only "somewhat liberal." In a Quinnipiac University poll taken last month, people who identified as "very liberal" were only 19% of all Democrats and independents who leaned Democratic. Very liberals made up the same 19% of those who said they were voting Democratic in Suffolk University's final 2018 pre-election poll. The 2016 primary exit polls discovered that about 25% of Democratic primary voters called themselves very liberal.

Put another way: the moderate/conservative wing of the Democratic Party likely still makes up at least 2 times as much of the party's voters than the very liberal flank.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/09/politics/democratic-party-voters-analysis/index.html

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Of couse the centrist Democrats still outnumber the liberal ones. That's why Biden's leading in the polls even tho he still hasn't entered the race. We went with a establishment centrist in 2016 and failed. I see it going pretty much the same way in 2020.

[tshile]

1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said:

Because when faced with a decision between Trump and that socially liberal Democrat..the obvious thing for them is to vote Trump or not vote at all... 🙄

Just because they don’t like trump doesn’t mean they’re ready to support progressive policies. 

 

The left doesn’t seem to get that. 

 

Those that do dont care. They are in denial as to how their party lost to a buffoon. 

[Captain Wiggles]

2 minutes ago, tshile said:

Just because they don’t like trump doesn’t mean they’re ready to support progressive policies. 

 

The left doesn’t seem to get that. 

 

Those that do dont care. They are in denial as to how their party lost to a buffoon. 

 

We ran about as centrist a candidate as you can find in 2016 and lost. So the solution is to run another even older one? How's that gon go you think?