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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
in The Tailgate

TK
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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mammajamma said:

It's not really fair to put a referendum on this election yet, when there's still millions of votes to be counted. Believe it or not, Biden could still realistically win GA and NC, which be a huge boost for Dems.

Yeah a Biden blowout is still on the table. 
So is a trump victory. And everything in between. 
 

Declaring anything right now is silly. 
 

but it looks like they’re getting close to calling WI and MI for Biden which is huge 

 

still rooting for the end storyline to be:

It doesn’t matter you couldn’t finish counting your votes Pa, it turned out you’re just not that important. 

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mammajamma

mammajamma

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1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Perhaps it's not fair, but with how close this is, it's more than fair to pile on democrats for not doing more.  We kind of rested on the fact that Biden is a more likeable guy, more compassionate, empathetic, all that stuff.  When what they really needed to do was destroy the BS GOP narratives and fight fire with fire.  Not sure how much difference it would really make, but it's obvious their campaign left something to be desired.

Not debating your overall point (biden was not my choice in the primaries), but I was just saying.. with so many votes left, it still could be a blowout for biden when it's all over. The same exact thing happened in 2018

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Momma There Goes That Man

Momma There Goes That Man

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I guess the big question going forward whether Biden wins or loses is: do you expect a true shift in turnout like this for future Republican nominees or is this exclusive to Trump and his cult of personality and everything that comes with him? 
 

does a 2024 Cruz, Cotton, Haley have this turnout and hit these margins among minorities? Did Donald ****ing Trump really build a long term GOP coalition of working class minorities? 
 

How do we combat that? I’m terrified 

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Heisenberg

Heisenberg

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1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Perhaps it's not fair, but with how close this is, it's more than fair to pile on democrats for not doing more.  We kind of rested on the fact that Biden is a more likeable guy, more compassionate, empathetic, all that stuff.  When what they really needed to do was destroy the BS GOP narratives and fight fire with fire.  Not sure how much difference it would really make, but it's obvious their campaign left something to be desired.

I'm sorry but Biden just became the first Presidential candidate in history with more than 70 million votes. This has far less to do with the Dems and their campaign and a hell of a more to do with Trump support and everything that involves being far more widespread than most anyone could imagine. I really don't think you're taking votes away from Trump by putting anyone else out there and it seems clear to me just about anyone else would have gotten absolutely destroyed.

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mammajamma

mammajamma

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Just now, Momma There Goes That Man said:

I guess the big question going forward whether Biden wins or loses is: do you expect a true shift in turnout like this for future Republican nominees or is this exclusive to Trump and his cult of personality and everything that comes with him? 
 

does a 2024 Cruz, Cotton, Haley have this turnout and hit these margins among minorities? 

No, but the same thing can be said for democrats when they don't have trump to vote against

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skinsmarydu

skinsmarydu

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1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Perhaps it's not fair, but with how close this is, it's more than fair to pile on democrats for not doing more.  We kind of rested on the fact that Biden is a more likeable guy, more compassionate, empathetic, all that stuff.  When what they really needed to do was destroy the BS GOP narratives and fight fire with fire.  Not sure how much difference it would really make, but it's obvious their campaign left something to be desired.

But what do we do?  Should I get into an argument in the grocery line (that I'm only in once a month now instead of 3-4 times a week?)

Seriously, this has been the worst election ever with the virus.  Y'all know me, I wouldn't shrink from any discussion anywhere, anytime under usual circumstances.  Covid shut all of us loud-mouths up.

(I got banned from my favorite bar during the 2004 election, I can get a little b-wordy when necessary.)

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Heisenberg

Heisenberg

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Again, I'm not sure how you appeal to a person who willingly would cast a vote for Donald Trump in 2020. I just don't see them as being reachable and Trump/GOP have been able to effectively convince these people that Democrats and anyone associated with them are all about control and taking rights away. 

 

Considering the fact that all the usual vocal Trump supporters on my social media feeds are already buying into Trump's messaging - "stop counting because the Dems are going to 'find' votes somewhere" and I don't see any way we aren't absolutely ****ed in this country moving forward - regardless of whether or not Biden is declared the winner.

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tshile

tshile

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I'm sorry but Biden just became the first Presidential candidate in history with more than 70 million votes. This has far less to do with the Dems and their campaign and a hell of a more to do with Trump support and everything that involves being far more widespread than most anyone could imagine. I really don't think you're taking votes away from Trump by putting anyone else out there and it seems clear to me just about anyone else would have gotten absolutely destroyed.


clinton won the most votes in history but underperformed by % of registered voters in key states. Citing total popular vote as meaning anything is akin to citing the nominal debt figures as meaning anything when ratio to gdp is what matters. 
 

as far as scrutinizing Biden for his campaign. You have a guy with a 50 year history of mostly being a moderate Democrat being forced to run on sweeping policy change frameworks that come across as very liberal. We all know the list. 
 

And I’ve been telling you all for months that the Dems strategy of trying to make this a referendum on supporting big sweeping policies like this was a bad idea because there are a lot of people who don’t like trump, but also don’t want any of those sweeping changes. So you’re basically pitching to those people to vote for sweeping policy changes you don’t like that can never be reversed over 4 more years of a guy you don’t like (but generally  supports policies your align with better)

 

if trump wins I won’t see this as Biden being the wrong choice. I’ll see it as the Dems pushing a platform on him that they shouldn’t have. 

 

I still think there’s a path to a Biden blowout so I’m not even there yet. But I think making the results simply a referendum on Biden is wrong. I think there’s a much more obvious answer. If trump wins it’s because the people the Dems needed to appeal to, we’re willing to support 4 more years of a guy they don’t like over a lifetime of policies they abhor. 

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bearrock

bearrock

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But will those Trump voters endure?  Because Obama coalition didn't for Hillary.  And we still don't know how much of Biden's support is the Obama coalition vs anti Trump votes padding the margin.

 

One thing it does say imo is that there's room on both ends to expand the base.  The tricky part is whether anyone can expand their base without losing an equivalent amount or more in the middle.

 

We'll have to read the tea leaves some more after the dust settles, but I'm not sure whether fighting fire with fire would've been Dems best path forward in 2020.

 

I'm also still holding out hope in the senate.  Collins dipped below 50% so it looks like ranked voting will trigger.  Then all eyes would turn to Warnock vs Loffler run off and GA does seem very very purple right now.

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tshile

tshile

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I also think the Dems push over the last month to declare their strategy would be it should be:

to expand scotus to negate trumps appointments 

to get the EC thrown out and use popular vote

 

Did not go over well with people the Dems needed to not vote for trump. 

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visionary

visionary

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3 minutes ago, tshile said:

I still think there’s a path to a Biden blowout so I’m not even there yet. But I think making the results simply a referendum on Biden is wrong. I think there’s a much more obvious answer. If trump wins it’s because the people the Dems needed to appeal to, we’re willing to support 4 more years of a guy they don’t like over a lifetime of policies they abhor. 

A lot of people seem pretty misinformed about those policies, and in some cases voted for them.  

 

Also it's unclear if Dems lost voters to Trump, or if Trump found more new voters somehow.  

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No Excuses

No Excuses

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14 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

Did Donald ****ing Trump really build a long term GOP coalition of working class minorities? 
 

How do we combat that? I’m terrified 


Whatever inroads Trump made with minorities, he’s getting cleaned out in the suburbs with white college voters. Goes both ways. 

 

The Republican Party should feel very nervous about AZ and GA moving forward. They have VA and CO written all over them. Urbanizing, modernizing and diversifying. 

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bearrock

bearrock

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1 minute ago, tshile said:

I also think the Dems push over the last month to declare their strategy would be it should be:

to expand scotus to negate trumps appointments 

to get the EC thrown out and use popular vote

 

Did not go over well with people the Dems needed to not vote for trump. 

 

Not sure about the EC part, but feel like many voters could've been turned off by "we'll do anything it takes" mantra, thus creating a lot of split votes among GOP crossovers, going Biden and GOP senate candidate.

 

If senate comes down to GA runoff, all message should be on legislative rescue for ACA SCOTUS ruling and covid stimulus package.

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Momma There Goes That Man

Momma There Goes That Man

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2 minutes ago, No Excuses said:


Whatever inroads Trump made with minorities, he’s getting cleaned out in the suburbs with white college voters. Goes both ways. 

 

The Republican Party should feel very nervous about AZ and GA moving forward. They have VA and CO written all over them. Urbanizing, modernizing and diversifying. 


AZ and GA flipping are offset by previously blue strongholds now being 1% tossup states trending less and less blue like WI and PA 

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