Heading into the 2016 season, let's not mistake "pessimistic" for "rational"

[Bacon]

Tonight was a rough night that brought an end to a long string of great nights. We've seen this before and I'm sure that many of us are expecting we'll see it again. There is a very understandable undercurrent of pessimism that has infiltrated this fanbase over the past, oh, two decades and it has been well earned. This is not a judgmental thread in the slightest. Instead, I want to outline why it is that expecting success from this team is, in fact, very rational and that expecting a significant dropoff is largely superstitious.

 

The first reason most outsiders expect a good season from us is the most public: the improvement of Kirk Cousins. Memes aside, his play has united this team through consistent quality. His consistency is remarkable in particular because that quality was absent from the early portion of his career. I don't need to post the stats, you know them already if you care at all. He's not throwing picks. He's completing 70% of his passes. He shaped up and earned his contract. While our last 3 playoff teams showed flashes of competence at the QB position, there were reasons to doubt our stability:

 

Our 2006 quarterback: Mark Brunell

 

Our 2008 quarterback: Jason Campbell

 

Our 2013 quarterback: Robert Griffin III with an ACL tear

 

Based on what I saw in 2015, I'll take Kirk Cousins in his second full year as a starter over any of these situations.

 

Crucially, the success of Cousins is tied into another key to success in 2016: we've grown out of a stable offensive scheme. The 2005 team lacked a consistent passing threat, the 2007 team had virtually no offensive threat at all until Todd Collins caught fire and the 2012 team was borne from an experimental but limited read-option offense. The offense of Gruden and McVay does not rely on gimmicks. There are no smoke and mirrors here, just young talent that executes.

 

Speaking of young talent: this offense does not rely on one player. Injuries to Clinton Portis and Robert Griffin III handicapped the 2006 and 2013 campaigns, respectively. The 2016 team will have enough playmakers to give the team offensive depth in the event of injuries and keep defenses guessing at full strength. Cousins, Reed, Jackson, Garcon, there is talent all over and much of it is young and homegrown. 

 

What will keep this team together if it struggles a bit to start with? Coaching stability. There was a major upheaval in the coaching staff after the 2014 season and, remarkably, the results have been largely positive from the start. As opposed to the 2008 campaign, which saw a massive downgrade at HC, and the 2013 campaign, which was undermined by internal strife, this is a team that plays hard for their coach and QB. However you feel about Gruden or Barry (I'm a fan of neither), there is no reason to expect any changes to our staff and, for now, I can only see that as a positive.

 

Last, but certainly not least, we've got ourselves a GM. Scot McCloughan had a proven track record with not one, not two, but three successful franchises under his belt. His first season with his once embarrassing franchise has shown a massive overhaul in the culture and performance of the players. The whispers have ceased. No more leaks. Players seem to be proud to play for this team for the first time since Gibbs' second tenure. And it's likely that more strong contributors are on the way. Just look at what the 2015 draft brought us:

 

Brandon Scherff

Preston Smith

Matt Jones

Jamison Crowder

Arie Kouandijo

Matrell Spaight

Kyoshen Jarrett

Tevin Mitchel

Evan Spencer

Austin Reiter

 

It's pretty remarkable how many of these players have already contributed in just their rookie year. I trust McCloughan to make similarly impactful choices in the future. I also expect him to keep the coaching staff in check and continue to establish a winning culture in this city.

 

The only thing I've heard from rival fans after this game is that the Redskins need to keep their heads up because there's a great future in front of them. That we have a lot to be proud of. And I believe them. After years in the desert, it's easy to listen to your gut tell you that what lies ahead is a mirage. But eventually you will reach the promised land. For now, I'm going to believe my eyes and keep trudging forward.

[Rufus T Firefly]

We're totally and completely screwed.

[NoCalMike]

I am kind of torn on my expectations for 2016, despite my *big picture* outlook of the team being positive.  Going into next season I am sure a healthy Dallas will be favored to win the division but beyond that I don't see how we shouldn't be considered the next best team.

 

I need to keep everything tempered because I am just so used to these one and done seasons where the team has to do something miraculous to get into the playoffs then get soundly bounced out in the first round, never to return to the playoffs for a few seasons until they find a way to complete another late-season rally.

 

I want to see this team go from the 2005/2007/2012/2015 model into a team that looks playoff caliber from the get-go.   No more being 3-5, or 4-6  after 10ish games and needing some crazy rally.  Tired of squeaking into the playoffs with a team so depleted and/or talent starved that it feels like a warm up game for the opponent.

 

I've seen this routine four times in the last decade and it's getting old.  This isn't to say I am not happy with the progress we have made, but three times before this franchise pulled this very act and it didn't once lead to the turnaround we thought it would/could.

[Bacon]

We're totally and completely screwed.

 

Save this smiley, we're going to need it:

 

 

I am kind of torn on my expectations for 2016, despite my *big picture* outlook of the team being positive.  Going into next season I am sure a healthy Dallas will be favored to win the division but beyond that I don't see how we shouldn't be considered the next best team.

 

I need to keep everything tempered because I am just so used to these one and done seasons where the team has to do something miraculous to get into the playoffs then get soundly bounced out in the first round, never to return to the playoffs for a few seasons until they find a way to complete another late-season rally.

 

I want to see this team go from the 2005/2007/2012/2015 model into a team that looks playoff caliber from the get-go.   No more being 3-5, or 4-6  after 10ish games and needing some crazy rally.  Tired of squeaking into the playoffs with a team so depleted and/or talent starved that it feels like a warm up game for the opponent.

 

I've seen this routine four times in the last decade and it's getting old.  This isn't to say I am not happy with the progress we have made, but three times before this franchise pulled this very act and it didn't once lead to the turnaround we thought it would/could.

 

And that's precisely why I made this thread. I'm thinking all of this, but the reasons to be hopeful are shockingly prevalent and rational for a Redskins team following a major rally. 

 

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we regressed slightly (7-9, 8-8) in the face of a 1st place schedule. It's very possible. But that's not what you nor I are referring to when we talk about a Redskins Regression. That's a complete and utter collapse and I don't believe it will happen in 2016.

[Cooleyfan1993]

Agreed with NoCalMike. For once I'd love to actually be something like 5-3, 6-2, 7-1, or 8-0 after 8 weeks. The one time in my fanhood that we've been 6-2 after 8 weeks, we screwed that up by going 2-6 the rest of the way...i would also love to not have to rely on a December 4 game winning streak for once.

[redrobert]

This first year under Scot was more than most of us had expected. Let the Man work his plan.

[NoCalMike]

 

 

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we regressed slightly (7-9, 8-8) in the face of a 1st place schedule. It's very possible. But that's not what you nor I are referring to when we talk about a Redskins Regression. That's a complete and utter collapse and I don't believe it will happen in 2016.

 

Which is also why it is hard to look at past success/failure with too much hindsight. In the end, especially when it comes to the NFL. You are what you are......what you are.   Games are won/lost often times by the skin of the teeth, unless the team is really good or really bad.  If you go back and look at most of the wins and losses this season it is hard to really get a good barring on what to expect from this team next year.  Just as many games that they could have won, they also could have lost.  

 

It's not beyond belief IMO, that this team has a 2 game swing in either direction next season. 7-9 or 11-5 both seem like realistic predictions because they simply aren't yet at that level where you can call them a reliable winning team.

 

I would *love* to be in the position that a team like say the.....Packers are in.  Where a "down" season is 2015. 

[DC9]

I enjoyed the OP, but I'm also with Mike.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if this team won 11 games next year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they won 7, 8, or 9.  It's just how the league works.

 

And really, with a 1st place schedule, you're looking at 2 weighted games, which right now is the Cardinals and the Panthers.  So yeah .

 

Scot has some work to do and honestly there is no one else in the world I'd rather have doing said work.  For once we can say that and actually mean it.

 

Obviously the offense has to mature and the run game has to be sorted out.  And we have to do something with this defense.  We're going to need a difference maker or two and some youth on that line. 

 

Certainly plenty to be proud of and plenty to be optimistic about, but (as I said in the FA thread) there are some tough choices that have to be made as far as value, output, and longevity go for 2016 and beyond.

[NoCalMike]

Yep.  And lets think about this for a second.  Even if one of those games during the 4 game win streak goes differently, the team ends up 8-8 and out of the playoffs, I still would have thought of this season as a success in the big picture.

 

Losing today stings, of course, but we also have to be realistic of how they were even in this position to begin with. 

 

Reading some of the reaction to today's loss has me thinking some folks are more down on this team as a result of today's game than if we would have lost one more game and missed the playoffs entirely.  

[MrSilverMaC]

I think it would be foolish to look too heavily at our past failures and apply those mistakes when evaluating our current situation; however it would also be foolish to discount what the realities of this season were.

We played the schedule of a last place team in a division decimated by injuries and epic meltdowns. Those two things combined to make for a schedule which was not as hard as it could have been. That being said we won the games put in front of us and realized we had more than a few diamonds in the rough hiding in the roster.

It's entirely probable that next years team will actually be a better unit and have a worse record due to playing in a division that is healthy and manned by different coaches as well as playing a first place schedule.

What I will be looking for is a more competent defense that's not held together with bubble gum and kite string and an offense that can consistently run the ball well without us taking a step back in the passing game. The idea of Scott having another f.a period and draft is really exciting to me in a way I don't know ice ever felt about an off season before.

There is no reason whatsoever to discount us as a legitimate threat to win the division again but falling short of that should also be viewed as a realistic outcome as well.

[Bacon]

Reading some of the reaction to today's loss has me thinking some folks are more down on this team as a result of today's game than if we would have lost one more game and missed the playoffs entirely.

No one, deep down, would want to miss the playoffs in this division. No one. I don't care how pissed off you are. Every Redskins fan wants to have a better record than the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants.

[Cooleyfan1993]

After looking back on it, yes today's loss sucked, and I'm still pretty bummed about it. But we get the whole offseason to use the response "well, at least we won the division" to anything Cowboys, Eagles or giants fans say to us that right there ALMOST makes this loss a bit easier to stomach. Not quite, but almost.

[88Comrade2000]

I'll answer this way. 

 

 

1999 vs 2012 vs 2015

 

 

1999

 

Dan Snyder takes ownership of the team in July 1999, think it was July. Casserely is let go and a fire is lit under Norv Turner. We make the playoffs by winning the division. We win a playoff game and many feel, had we beat Tampa; we could've beaten the Rams and gone to the Superbowl.

 

You go into 2000, thinking we are a Superbowl contender.  Dan signs all those aging big name Vets. Alas, we finish .500. Norv is put out of his misery with 3 games to go. Sadly, 2000 began the nightmare that has been most of Dan Snyder's ownership. Winning the division in 1999 wasn't foretelling anything.

 

 

2012

 

We have a hot young QB.  After a poor start, magic occurs all the way to the playoffs and the second division title; under Dan. You even find out you have a capable backup, to fill in if needed.  The season ends with the horrible injury to RG3 in the playoffs.

 

We go into offseason with hope. We have a franchise QB, he just needs to heal his knee. We have a backup QB, who can fill in; until RG3 is ready.  It didn't work out that way.  Robert wasn't the same QB and 2013 leading to Shanny's firing. 

 

 

2015

 

The season started with changes to the coaching staff and more importantly; the hiring of a real GM.  We still were hoping RG3 would finally show us promise of that rookie year.  Alas, he didn't show much to win the job.  The backup QB; is named started right before the season and he takes us all the way to a third NFC EAST title under Dan. 

 

 

So, where do I stand after the season?  I felt the Skins 2015 Division title was more a product a mediocre NFC EAST and a mostly mediocre NFL overall. They were 14 teams in the 6-9 win range this year.

 

I felt we would win today because the Packers had been playing poorly. Thing is, when you have a great QB like Aaron Rodgers; if you give him an opening, he will seize it. Eventually, he did.

 

 

I am still not sold on Gruden but the NFC EAST title gets him to year 4 at least. He would have to completely crash in 2016, for him to not return.  Kirk is going to get his contract but I would structure it in such a way; where it will be easier to cut him in 1 or 2 years; if he proves he's a one year wonder.

 

If this team shows real improvement in 2016; then I would expect another playoff appearance. We don't even have to win the playoff game. Just doing something we haven't done since Gibbs 1.  Making the playoffs in consecutive years.  Scott would have to a good free agency/draft and the flaws in Gruden's coaching would have to be eliminated. Also, Couisins will have to prove he's not a one year wonder and grow and repeat his 2015 performance but even better.

 

Dallas will be favored; with a healthy romoSUCKS.  If the Giants get the right coach, they could also be a factor.  The Skins most likely would be battling for a wild card spot; unless romoSUCKS gets hurt again.  2016 is a tougher schedule. Odds are this team reverses direction.

 

Let's see if we can beat Skins history of the last 22 years. I'll take a wait and see approach for 2016.  Cautiously optimistic and pessimistic at the same time. Either scenario can happen.

[NoCalMike]

I'll answer this way. 

 

 

1999 vs 2012 vs 2015

 

 

 

 

I agree with your assessment, I'm just saying that we had "reasons" to be optimistic at the end of those other seasons too (also after the 2007 playoff loss as well).  Basically there is nothing guaranteed or assured in the NFL.  There is no guarantee that because we went from 4 wins to 9 wins, that next season means 10 or more wins. In fact I am sort of feel in the same boat as those who have suggested that we could easily end up a better team next season but not seeing it reflect in the W/L record itself. 

 

Honestly to me the biggest difference and why I feel our guarded optimism is warranted THIS time around is due to the stability the GM will bring.  To me that is the single biggest X-factor this franchise has that they didn't have after 1999/2005/2007/2012.  We have an adult in charge that will take an honest look at what worked, what didn't work, and what is needed to improve this team.

 

In the most simple way I can put it, the big picture looks bright, but that doesn't mean the short term growing pains are over.

[Bacon]

 

In the most simple way I can put it, the big picture looks bright, but that doesn't mean the short term growing pains are over.

I should edit OP to include that I don't think we're a juggernaut now.

[TheCoach22]

I don't believe anyone here thinks that the current roster is good enough to take on a first place schedule and jump to a perennial double-digit win team, but I also don't think anyone believes that is GM SM's plan... Scot is going to be busy this offseason.

Surprising season, equally surprising exit. I did not see us getting only one sack in the opening minutes of the game, and then getting owned given how the Pack's Oline had looked in recent weeks. I didn't see our offense struggling with Shields out the way we did.

Kirk is our QB going forward and rightfully so, but he took a small step backwards with that showing. DJax disappearing shows he is simply a great big play threat, not necessarily a big time WR. Kerrigan was invisible, which was really upsetting. Pot Roast is a great dude but he did not earn the contract he sought with his play over 17 games. Other than Reed our stars were very pedestrian in this one, which shocked me.

This team needs a C and G as well as a true big target WR who cannot be denied 1-on-1. The D needs a pass rusher and a shutdown corner as well as a legit safety. It sounds like a daunting list, but GM SM will get two of those six things in the draft and two via free agency. That will be enough to win the East again. Philly and the NYG lack much talent and will have new coaches, the Cowboys will never get another 16 game season out of Romo and the offense is so dependent on him it won't work until they reboot. Their D is what everyone thought it would be before that mirage in 2014. Sean Lee is a stud, the rest of that unit is trash.

[MartinC]

This season was a huge step forwards for this franchise. A lot of solid work was done last offseason and some building blocks are in place. I think we all knew there was still a ways to go through before we can really think of contending and deep play off runs - last night we saw just how much work is needed.

 

Lets start with the positives. We have a core of very good young players.

 

QB - most important position on the field and we have found one. I dont think what Kirk has done and the way he has done it should lead to a 'one season wonder' crash. But nor do I think we can assume he will continue to improve at the rate he did this year and become 'elite' (however you define that). At worst though we have found a good starter we can win behind and we might, just might, have found ourselves a 10 year plus pro bowl quality QB.

 

O'Line - the right side of the line was night and day better this season . Moses and Schreff will play together for a long time over there provided they stay healthy. Trent is Trent and a stud. We need to get better and bigger at centre and maybe upgrade at LG as well (though Lauvao was playing well before he was hurt).

 

WR - I'm including Reed here because he essentially is a receiver. Reed, Jackson and Crowder make for a really good group. Garcon has been good as a Redskin but is really a possession guy at this point in his career - if we could replace him with a bigger outside receiver who can contest jump balls and be more of a down field threat than Garcon we would have one of the best receiving groups in the NFL.

 

TE - Reed is really a receiver. We get Paul back that will help and I was impressed by Carrier. I think we are fine at this spot but if someone is around who excels as a blocker that would be a good addition.

 

Running back. Alf will not be here next year IMO. He has been a good to very good player for us but he has not been good this year - too many missed holes and does not have that extra gear when he does break one to run way from a defense. I'm not sold Jones will be the number one back next year - think he might be better splitting carry's with another back. Thomas and Thompson will be back and are good 3rd down guys.

 

Overall the offense is in very good shape. We were scoring 30 points a game down the stretch on a consistent basis. Its been a while since we have done that.

 

Defense is another question though. We need to get better on all 3 levels.

 

First issue for me is stopping the run. We were bad in that regard this year. I think some if it is schematic and coaching related (having ILB TRY to set the edge when the OLB stunts inside for example). Some of it is lack of talent.

 

D'Line - Pot Roast was inconsistent. I'd bring him back but I'd also want to look for his replacement and have him on the roster. I don't see Hatcher coming back and we need an upgrade at that DE spot. Baker was excellent this year and depth is solid. Upgrading that DE spot is where I would focus.

 

ILB - Major need for me. Robinson and Riley ended the year injured and benched. We need a stud in this area and this might be where we use the first round pick (Reggie Ragland anybody or maybe we get lucky and Jaylon Smith drops like a stone because of his knee injury).

 

OLB - Think we are set here. Preston Smith had 8 sacks and got better and better. Kerrigan is the heart of the defense. We get Galette back next year as well. Murphy should have competition for his job as backup.

 

CB. Breeland is excellent and Dunbar is a great story (and someone with huge potential). Blackman did a good job saying he came in off the street but he is really 'just a guy". If we added a really good corner opposite Breeland it would make a big difference to this defense. Its a big need IMO.

 

S - Hall did a good job at safety but hes not a long term answer. Goldson was solid as well but again is a stop gap. We need to find at least one younger starting safety.

 

Defense is the issue for this team going into the offseason. We need to get better, bigger and FASTER on defense. Put a good defense with an offense thats on the rise and we could really have something.

[hail2skins]

I agree with your assessment, I'm just saying that we had "reasons" to be optimistic at the end of those other seasons too (also after the 2007 playoff loss as well).  Basically there is nothing guaranteed or assured in the NFL.  There is no guarantee that because we went from 4 wins to 9 wins, that next season means 10 or more wins. In fact I am sort of feel in the same boat as those who have suggested that we could easily end up a better team next season but not seeing it reflect in the W/L record itself. 

 

I posted that a few weeks ago as well. Looking at the schedule, I'm penciling in us for 9-7 again.  And as far as the division goes, those who think we are going to "own" it for the next several years need to slow their rolls. Yes, there will be coaching changes in NY and Philly, but both teams still do have decent QBs for the time being (health permitting, especially in Bradford's case and of course Romo's).  The Skins should refreshingly be considered competitive for the NFCE crown again (I would honestly have us co-favorites with Dallas), but don't see necessarily rolling to 12-4 in '16. Possible, yes. Likely, no.

[PeterMP]

I am kind of torn on my expectations for 2016, despite my *big picture* outlook of the team being positive.  Going into next season I am sure a healthy Dallas will be favored to win the division but beyond that I don't see how we shouldn't be considered the next best team.

 

I need to keep everything tempered because I am just so used to these one and done seasons where the team has to do something miraculous to get into the playoffs then get soundly bounced out in the first round, never to return to the playoffs for a few seasons until they find a way to complete another late-season rally.

 

I want to see this team go from the 2005/2007/2012/2015 model into a team that looks playoff caliber from the get-go.   No more being 3-5, or 4-6  after 10ish games and needing some crazy rally.  Tired of squeaking into the playoffs with a team so depleted and/or talent starved that it feels like a warm up game for the opponent.

 

I've seen this routine four times in the last decade and it's getting old.  This isn't to say I am not happy with the progress we have made, but three times before this franchise pulled this very act and it didn't once lead to the turnaround we thought it would/could.

 

I think there is a good chance the Eagles will be much better.  I think that they actually have a the makings of a good defense and that Kelly's offensive scheme and injuries hurt them.

 

They've got talent at RB and some at least pretty good young WRs.

 

They need an OL man (and maybe 2, which if they need 2, especially isn't trivial) and Bradford to stay healthy (which also isn't trivial).

 

But the difference between us and the Eagles isn't much with some good coaching (which also requires that they get a good coach).

[TheGreek1973]

This year IMO was a huge success.

 

I think we found our Franchise QB

I think we have a GM that understands how to build a team

I think we have a HC that will let his assistance coach and will help where is needed

I think we have the best OL coach in football and he will get the running game going

I think we just couldn't overcome the injuries to our D.  Hoping for a little more health next year.

 

The most important thing is for Cousins to continue to grow.  The kid never entered the off-season as "the guy", where coaches concentrated on him, where he had the reps to get in sink with his receivers.

 

Also let me remind you that Cousins doesn't have to do it all.  KC for example has a serviceable QB, throwing to a great TE but what makes that team tick is a great D.  Yesterday, our D couldn't stop the run for anything.

[my_friend_goo]

Great thread and very much in line with my beliefs/expectations going forward.

 

Last night was no different to the regular season and just confirmed that most of us already knew on one level (no matter how deeply you had to dig to find it): this team isn't ready yet to hang with the big boys. Before the season started, most of us knew that anyway and the performance of the team was a pleasant surprise.9-4 against the also-rans (9-5 if you want to include the Jets in that category) isn't bad at all. 

 

In order for this team to take the next step, they need to maintain the high win percentages against those teams above average and below, but also showing improved performance against those teams destined for the playoffs. Next year's schedule sees games against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay and Minnesota. Assuming those teams maintain their consistency from this year, the Redskins have to beat some of those guys to be in with a shout of the playoffs again. If some of those teams falter, others will inevitably take their place (Ravens, Lions and Cowboys are all teams which had down seasons but could trend upwards again). 

 

Looking at things from a trivialised high overview level, two things stand out as needing urgent fixing. Firstly the run game. Green Bay adjusted first by making a lot of quick passes to or just beyond the line of scrimmage, but then relied on the run game in the second half to bring them home clear. Redskins lacked that extra dimension for much of the season. Secondly would be a defensive enforcer or two. The kind of guy who is so disruptive they can influence a game almost single handedly. A pocket-destroying lineman, ILB who can cause havoc anywhere on the field between the backfield to the deep(ish) middle, sideline to sideline, a free safety that neutralises the deep passing game and makes game-changing interceptions. It's lovely having Breeland draped over a receiver most of the time, but a ball hawk can change the dynamic of a game.

 

It would be optimistic to expect all, or even most, of the holes to be fixed in one offseason, but nail a few of them and the team will take a further step forward. Like others here, in Scot I trust and I really am looking forward to the future.

[Jumbo]

We're totally and completely screwed.

 

 

Did you get the notice at birth, too?

 

****ers!

 

 

Great OP, Bacon.

[pjfootballer]

I would really start excluding the 2005 and 2007 teams from any comparisons of the current team. Maybe one or two players are leftover from those teams. I just don't think it's a fair comparison.

Good thread by the way.

[Qdeathstar]

Our schedule next year is gonna be a magnitude harder than it was this year... So that's a pretty good reason to be pessimistic.

[purbeast]

As much as it sucks that we lost yesterday, I really enjoyed seeing the team after the game in the post game on CSN.

 

What I mean by that, is that I loved seeing that clip of Scot McCloughan and Chris Baker, and Baker wiping tears from his eyes.

 

I loved seeing Jay Gruden look like he was on the verge of tears at the podium.

 

I loved seeing all of the players walking into the locker room completely disappointed and pissed off.

 

For the first time in as long as I can remember, I saw this team CARE that they lost and it is really killing them. I'm used to seeing the players smiling and joking after losses, and hearing RG3 at the podium with his same old schtick "we'll get better" blah blah.  So to see this team completely pissed off and disappointed that they lost was reassuring to know that they really care about winning and in the future they will use it as fire to motivate them.

 

We had a great season and I really think there is a culture change around here and that we're headed in the right direction.