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Heading into the 2016 season, let's not mistake "pessimistic" for "rational"


Bacon

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Knighton is your run stuffer in the 34 alignment. Unless they draft an immediate starting nose guard at 21 (certainly possible with this draft), you'll be hard pressed to find a suitable replacement. With the amount of four down lineman we saw late in the season, you would figure that is where Paea would have made his impact as a better option for RJF, and potentially allowing baker a few more plays of rest when needed. You can get out of Paea's contract this year in the black, but I think he's got another year largely because the defensive line is a problem spot. 
 

We saw it with Shanahan too - get your immediate contributors in free agency because the home grown talent will take time. I expect one or two draft picks between day one and two this year. Clearly, the front seven has to improve a fair amount. Arguably ILBs need that instant improvement more than the line, but I think that also depends on Hatcher's health and whether he continues on. 

 

I am somewhat surprised that most are uncomfortable with what DeAngelo contributed from FS. Considering his play, I am more than happy to set aside the FS position for a couple of years even if he has lost some of the range he once had. You could see the angles defending the run and pass coming together by the end of the season. Hopefully Jarrett can provide value in the slot, but also as a reserve safety. Overall, strong safety is the only spot in the defensive backfield that worries me. Sure, it would be nice to get a solid corner to compete with Dunbar behind Culliver and Breeland, but that's not a top priority compared to the strong safety spot (assuming Goldson is outright cut rather than negotiates his contract down).

 

I would gladly take Garcon back on the team, but he should be coming in at 5-6 million with an extension. Jackson did open up the middle of the field for Reed. His impact is understated and will help keep the safety's away from bracketing Reed. Back-up TE is something that can be found with the existing TEs on the roster and maybe a day three run block specialist.

 

LeRibeus is gone. Long is probably a reserve, or competing at C with Lichtensteiger (who will probably get one last season). Whether Lauvao can come back is very much open for discussion. Ideally, a stud LG can be found in this draft and then the C becomes much less of concern to immediately fix. It was hardly surprising that the Redskins could run up the middle when LeRib was on the sideline.

 

Matt Jones worries me, but you have to think that they drafted him to start. These days, selecting a RB in the third round means they'll be a starter in short order.

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I am somewhat surprised that most are uncomfortable with what DeAngelo contributed from FS. Considering his play, I am more than happy to set aside the FS position for a couple of years even if he has lost some of the range he once had. You could see the angles defending the run and pass coming together by the end of the season. Hopefully Jarrett can provide value in the slot, but also as a reserve safety. Overall, strong safety is the only spot in the defensive backfield that worries me. Sure, it would be nice to get a solid corner to compete with Dunbar behind Culliver and Breeland, but that's not a top priority compared to the strong safety spot (assuming Goldson is outright cut rather than negotiates his contract down).

 

 

 

DeAngelo's play at safety shouldn't stop us from drafting one.

 

Culliver is a question mark for me.  ACL/MCL on November 26th, for a CB to recover from that, and have full speed and explosiveness...that could take up to 2 years.  It would be great if he could be ready, but I believe we will get a corner in this draft with a high pick.

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Well, seeing as he got 9 sacks as a nickle sub as a rookie, I think it's a safe bet he can get to double digits, especially as he learns the position and builds a rushing repertoire.

 

Smith's true value to me is as an every down player.  I think he has the potential to be a dominant run defender and I think we should be playing him in our base packages next season and I think we should be designing and calling more plays/packages where he rushes from an interior technique on passing downs.

 

The reason I think he can be a special run defender is because of his high level play recognition and elite length.  He can play off blocks and he has the range to track down the ball when they run it his way.

 

First, in the regular season, he only got 8 sacks and that's what I was talking about.  It is only 2, but when you get 8, 2 is 25% increase (and again, I think he'll do that.  What I was really talking about is the increase from 8 to regularly being about ~14 sack guy.  I could even see him having a year and there where he gets to ~14 sacks).

 

Second, we have to recognize the sacks is a noisy statistics and at some level based on luck.  If we look at the numbers of hurries, Smith has only 13, which puts him much further down the leader board than he is in sacks.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/defensive-hurries/2015/

 

In addition, that turns into a very good % of sacks vs. hurries.  Out of about 11 guys with 13 hurries, the only person that has more sacks than him is Aaron Donald with 11.  There's no real reason to believe he's going to keep converting even good rushes into sacks the way he did this year.

 

It is completely believable that he could have more snaps where he does a good job of rushing the QB next year and actually fewer sacks.

 

Second, I'm not so sure of the idea of him making progress.  Look at Orakpo and Kerrigan.  Has either one of them added an effective/efficient pass rush move in the time they've been in the NFL, and their sack numbers have been pretty stagnant.

 

And I at least haven't seen Smith try anything else that was at all effective.  His sacks all seem to be the result of either the speed rush or just effort.  If he's used a spin move or some sort of move to beat his man inside, I haven't seen it.

 

You count the idea of improvement as almost an automatic, and it isn't.  It seems to me that a lot of players come in the NFL and they don't really improve at all- at least not fast enough to counter the erosion of skills from getting older/injuries.

 

I'm unsure of his ability to play the run.  I didn't see enough of it this year to say anything.

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First, in the regular season, he only got 8 sacks and that's what I was talking about.  It is only 2, but when you get 8, 2 is 25% increase (and again, I think he'll do that.  What I was really talking about is the increase from 8 to regularly being about ~14 sack guy.  I could even see him having a year and there where he gets to ~14 sacks).

 

Second, we have to recognize the sacks is a noisy statistics and at some level based on luck.  If we look at the numbers of hurries, Smith has only 13, which puts him much further down the leader board than he is in sacks.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/defensive-hurries/2015/

 

In addition, that turns into a very good % of sacks vs. hurries.  Out of about 11 guys with 13 hurries, the only person that has more sacks than him is Aaron Donald with 11.  There's no real reason to believe he's going to keep converting even good rushes into sacks the way he did this year.

 

It is completely believable that he could have more snaps where he does a good job of rushing the QB next year and actually fewer sacks.

 

Second, I'm not so sure of the idea of him making progress.  Look at Orakpo and Kerrigan.  Has either one of them added an effective/efficient pass rush move in the time they've been in the NFL, and their sack numbers have been pretty stagnant.

 

And I at least haven't seen Smith try anything else that was at all effective.  His sacks all seem to be the result of either the speed rush or just effort.  If he's used a spin move or some sort of move to beat his man inside, I haven't seen it.

 

You count the idea of improvement as almost an automatic, and it isn't.  It seems to me that a lot of players come in the NFL and they don't really improve at all- at least not fast enough to counter the erosion of skills from getting older/injuries.

 

I'm unsure of his ability to play the run.  I didn't see enough of it this year to say anything.

Those are fair points. I can't really argue against it. Its just a "we'll see" situation. I'm high on Smith, I expect him to be a double digit sack guy next year and eventually once he hits his prime be a guy who can hit the teens in sacks.

 

We're going to have to trust the player development, his coaches, and of course his own work ethic/desire to fulfill his potential.

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Those are fair points. I can't really argue against it. Its just a "we'll see" situation. I'm high on Smith, I expect him to be a double digit sack guy next year and eventually once he hits his prime be a guy who can hit the teens in sacks.

 

We're going to have to trust the player development, his coaches, and of course his own work ethic/desire to fulfill his potential.

 

I like him.  Go back into the draft thread, and I was one of the people saying I thought it was a good pick, and realistically, if you can get a double digit sack guy in the 2nd round it is a good pick.

 

When I see him play, I just don't see that natural balance that you see out of the guys that regularly hit the teens (where I could see him making the jump though is if the defense around him gets better.  If we guy that's actually a really good interior rusher, then his sack totals take a jump).

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As for the Preston Smith posts:  I was at the Dallas game at Jerry World and once the game got out of hand I got bored and focused a lot on Preston.  I thought at a minimum he was a handful for T. Smith.  At the very least Preston moves very well for a big guy where he got Tyron to chase him at times way outside leaving a nice rush opening in the B gap (granted that cuts both ways).  If the Redskins had some serious interior push, they could feed off of Preston IMO. 

 

Preston is also big enough to play inside on passing downs with Galette on the outside.  Serving the Justin Tuck role with the Giants championship teams.    I recall some of the reporters saying that the D line guys told them that Preston will be scary once he puts it all together.

 

Factoring that and the idea that he basically somewhat handled two of the best LTs in the league in Peters and Smith -- coupled with by his own admission that he has a lot to learn and grow as a player.  I think we likely got a gem.  As for the Orkapo comparisons, one thing I'll say for Preston in his rookie year he did more against the NFC east and in limited snaps than Orkapo did versus the NFC East in his career.  If you recall the critique against Orkapo was he'd disappear in big games, against elite LTs and within the division.  Conversely, Preston Smith just shined in each one of those categories.  

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Given the tougher schedule next year, I think an 8 win total would be a fair over/under number... I'd be comfortable betting the over given two factors: 1- we sign Kirk, 2- Snyder doesn't do something Snyderish and run McClu out of town.

 

Simply put, we lost this season in the trenches. Our avg-yards-per-rush-offense was ranked 28th and our avg-yards-per-rush-defense was ranked dead last. No super bowl winning team will ever have those types of rankings. Offensively, we lost our blocking TEs, as well as our C and LG, so I can see some natural improvement next year given they return healthy. But, the defense is another story; that DLine was flat out bad and needs a lot of addressing. 

 

If we fix the trenches, this team can get to that next level.

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http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/redskinsblog/key-stat-shows-redskins-upswing-can-they-keep-it?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo

 

Key stat shows Redskins on the upswing, but can they keep it up?

 

 

The Redskins’ rise from worst in the NFC East to first is remarkable as they were coming off of what were arguably the worst back-to-back seasons in their history. The won three games in 2013 and four in 2014. The total of seven wins over two seasons was the fewest the team had in consecutive seasons since the advent of the 16-game schedule in 1978.

 

Looking beyond the wins and losses, one of the best simple metrics to use to gauge the quality of a team’s season is by looking at its point differential, the difference between how many points the team scored and how many it gave up. They were outscored by 144 points in 2014, their worst point differential since the 1970 merger. They were only a touchdown better in 2014, with a point differential of minus-137. That was the second-worst since the merger.

 

The 2015 Redskins outscored the opposition 388 points to 379. The net differential of plus-9 points isn’t anything to write home about. But the year-to-year improvement of 146 points is one of the best in team history.

 

The biggest improvement in point differential since 1978 came from 1990-1991. That was a case of a team going from good to historically great. In 1990 the Redskins went 10-6 and outscored the opposition by 80 points. They put it all together in 1991 and posted a point differential of plus-261 (an improvement of 181 points) while in the process of going 14-2 in the regular season. That team rolled through the playoffs and won Super Bowl XXVI.

 

The only team with a better point differential since the merger was the plus-315 posted by the 2007 Patriots, who went 16-0. You may recall that they did not win the Super Bowl.

 

The Redskins were bad in 1998, getting outscored by 102 points while going 6-10. The next season they won the NFC East with a plus-66 differential, an improvement of 168 points.

 

Those are the only two other times since the advent of the 16-game schedule that schedule that the Redskins have improved more from one season to the next than they did from 2014-2015.

 

 

<edit>

 

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Given the tougher schedule next year, I think an 8 win total would be a fair over/under number... I'd be comfortable betting the over given two factors: 1- we sign Kirk, 2- Snyder doesn't do something Snyderish and run McClu out of town.

 

Simply put, we lost this season in the trenches. Our avg-yards-per-rush-offense was ranked 28th and our avg-yards-per-rush-defense was ranked dead last. No super bowl winning team will ever have those types of rankings. Offensively, we lost our blocking TEs, as well as our C and LG, so I can see some natural improvement next year given they return healthy. But, the defense is another story; that DLine was flat out bad and needs a lot of addressing. 

 

If we fix the trenches, this team can get to that next level.

Agree with 8 wins but of course would love more. I don't think heads roll unless a healthy skins team wins <8 games. However if gosh forbid we have injuries to key players and young guys develop well I don't think anything stupid will happen. Would like to see some continuity from our franchise even if we end up "middle of the pack".

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I think 8 wins is a fair expectation for 2016, given how many games this season seemed like they could have gone either way.

 

I'm of true belief that unless a team is a 11-13+ win caliber team, then they are basically part of the pack since not a lot separates 8-8 teams from 10-6 teams.  The records look worlds apart but in reality it is a 2 game swing and for most teams in the NFL there is a lot of factors that could cause a 2 game swing.

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I think 8 wins is a fair expectation for 2016, given how many games this season seemed like they could have gone either way.

 

 

It's only fair if you think the Redskins are going to stay right where they are, with no improvements, either in better players, or players getting better.

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It's only fair if you think the Redskins are going to stay right where they are, with no improvements, either in better players, or players getting better.

 

Well I think the schedule is harder.  So right off the bat, if the team made zero changes positive or negative that could be a 2 game swing.  I am not saying the team won't improve.  I am saying I just wouldn't be shocked if maybe we won a game or so less in 2016 despite the team itself being improved.  4 game to 9 games in a single offseason is impressive but I think sometimes what happens is teams in the process of a rebuild may get to a certain spot ahead of schedule due to a lot of factors so then the expectation immediately turns to the next step even though big picture-wise there are still some lumps to be taken in the building process.

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There are some things to be concerned about for next season:

Winning the division brings a first place schedule.We play Carolina and Arizona.

Dallas, when healthy, is a legitimate threat to take the division.

Our secondary is a disaster. Will D Hall really transition to safety. I liked some of what I saw from him. But he was exploited in the passing game. The Culliver move looks to be a bad one. Even when healthy he didnt play well. 

I am not sold at the MLB position either. Both of the season ending starters would be incredible depth at the position. But neither is a playmaker. That has to be addressed in the offseason. 

We need a legitimate starting caliber RB. I love Alfred. But he was SLOW this year. Jones has shown a propensity to fumble. Thompson can play. But he is frail and not an every down player. Pierre may be the best true RB on the team.

We need another pass rusher on the DL other than Chris Baker. Baker had an excellent season and his signing last year was a great move. But we need another true disrupter on the DL.

On the OL. We need a starting center. Kory can play and would be excellent depth. But neither he or Ribs are top line center talent. We also need some better depth at guard. Lovau (sp) was very good and the drop off after he was injured was tremendous. 

We need a true number one WR. Jackson, Garcon and Crowder are a nice starting rotation. One more true playmaker would send that group over the top.

 

On the bright side:

We found our franchise QB. Cousins is fantastic in this system.

I think Gruden has improved tremendously as a head coach. No stupid moves this year. He made all the right calls at the right times. 

With the QB and the system the coach has implemented you have to figure we will have stability at those two key positions for many years.

We will be extremely dangerous in two TE sets next year. With Reed and Paul on the field at the same time. The two te sets and routes are endless. I am looking forward to seeing that.

We have 3 legitimate outside pass rushers. Kerrigan and Smith are the real deal. You have to figure we will Galette on an affordable one year prove it deal. We may be able to move Smith to DE on passing downs and that is a scary pass rush with baker in the middle.

Scot Mccloughan. Although not all of his moves worked out (Galette, Culliver, Paea) off the top of my head. He showed an uncanny ability to grab guys off the street that contributed heavily to the playoff run. He also lives up to his draft guru status To get three legitimate starters (Scherff, Smith and Crowder) and 3 potential starters (Jones, Jarrett, Kouandjio) in one draft is unbelievable. We should be in good shape with him picking for us in the future.

 

I think when you add it all up this is a 7-10 win team next year again. WIth maybe a little higher upside to that with some solid off season moves. Would I be shocked if we win 11 games. No. But I also wouldnt be shocked if we only won 6 games as well. The rebuild is going great. Even ahead of schedule. Lets just hope Snyder really has the patience to let it pay off this time.

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It's only fair if you think the Redskins are going to stay right where they are, with no improvements, either in better players, or players getting better.

 

Agree.  Also, the team also clearly improved as the season went on.  Can we imagine this team losing for example to Miami at home now?  In the first game of the season it was for the most part considered an acceptable loss.  If it happened now, it would be considered a really bad loss. Maybe even ditto that road loss to Atlanta. 

 

Not sure I agree with the premise of the thread that its about being rational not pessimistic.   Personally, I think the rational position is a young team with rising players but beset by more injuries than about 95% of the NFL this season, that went 6-2 in the last 8 games when they were somewhat healthier, is a team closer to the precipice of going a peg up or at least treading water versus taking a step back.

 

I think the taking a step back is more a function of what the Redskins have done for years now.   They follow a good season with a mediocre or poor one.  But that's not a given.  It's just a sad and abnormal circumstance that has transpired during the post Gibbs 1 years.   But it doesn't have to be that way all the time.  I doubt for example many Viking fans (another young team) are expecting to slide next year.

 

All in fun but I flip the premise of the thread, yeah I would call the take step back a distinctly pessimistic view versus categorizing it as a rational one.   But I do get the reflex of hey we are the Redskins we had a good year, its not going to be as good next year.  It clearly gone down that way for about 2 decades -- but heck the law of averages has to kick in eventually?  

 

Edit:  reading Bacon's post more closely.  The title through me off some.  He makes some of these same points and in more detail, good stuff.  But yeah I'd be surprised if they went 7-9.   I am not expecting a Super Bowl but right now, I'd say 9-7, 10-6.  If they went 7-9, I'd be disappointed. 7-9 was my prediction for them this past season.

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People need to stop with the "first place schedule" stuff. Its TWO games. TWO. The other 14 games are the same as every other team in the division.

 

Yes, we draw Arizona which is tough, but we also avoid Seattle. Yes, we draw Carolina which is tough, but you think they're gonna go 15-1 again?

 

Also you really can't play the schedule game at all in the NFL. Teams rise and fall every year.

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As an eggspurt, I'd say if you're carefully paying attention and processing input competently, you might seem regularly depressed and pessimistic.

 

 

:P


People need to stop with the "first place schedule" stuff. Its TWO games. TWO. The other 14 games are the same as every other team in the division.

 

<edit>

 

 

 I agree. It's a lot more difference than just two games. It's at least double that (4) and maybe even then some (more). But not more than 8.

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:lol: Well if you want to get technical, it's 16 games as a first place schedule.

 

 

16 doesn't factor in at all--jeez, you're a doofus.

 

You don't have to get technical to understand advanced maths.

 

Get back to the tailgate. 

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Things i learned, or thoughts that have solidified for me after this season:

1) i learned that Scotty Mac is the real deal. His talent should continue to bolster ours beyond what lies directly in front of us, case & point...

2) i learned that good teams, & brilliant GMs don't just make teams better during the offseason...that when all hope seems lost on a position (TE, DB, RB), & injury bugs run rampant...the best of the best continue to find worthy replacements, or just replacements in general that keep your team treading water while others are drowning in hurt.

3) i solidified the idea that schedules are a fickle measuring stick. I was worried about our schedule heading in...but injuries occur, teams regress, players make bad decisions (JPP, Geno Smith), & coaches can lose their minds (Chip Kelley). These things continue to force evolution upon each growing season, & next year will be no different.

4) i also am solidified in the belief that lightning does not strike the same place twice (perhaps the same person at different locations...or if otherwise encouraged by lightning rods, & such). What i mean specifically is that a team hit hard by the injury bug will rarely get shallacked the next year in the same way...conversely, a team unscathed will rarely continue to go as such. I have high hopes we won't lose 11 pre-season starters to injury next year.

5) getting some of these players back from injury will, as they say in soccer, effectively work as FA signings in the offseason. Niles Paul, Lauvao?, Culliver, Paea, Hayward, Spaight, Gallette...just getting these guys back will significantly improve our team.

6) other guys will get injured, but the hope is that after such a year as this, the next batch will be of less impact.

7) young players will get better. Jarrett, Scherff, Moses, Breeland, Compton, Baker, Smith, Cousins, Crowder....certainly not all of them will necessarily progress, but i think we can agree that we finally have the right coaches in place to make good with the potential on a lot of these players.

8) Scot will add a dearth of talent this offseason. Our depth will improve, as will STs, & he will find a stud or 3 (or more) to really push us to that next level.

9) we will continue to play physical, unafraid, & i expect us to get better in the run game. How much better remains to be seen, but i expect us to at least acquire some help there. It could be internally with Kouandjio, or Lauvao, & moving Long to OC, or it could be in FA, or the Draft...but i fully expect LG, & OC to get the treatment this offseason.

10) another situation where it's not a given...but i expect THIS team to get better in another year with these coaches. We have players who want to win, who want to get better, & who are good football minds. Compton, & Cousins understand the game at a high level, & seem to be students of the game. These types make everyone around them better, & these are the types of players that Scot is looking for.

Now...none of this will necessarily translate to more wins, & that schedule is certainly a doozy. Yet, while it is early, i don't fear anyone, & i don't believe the players do either.

I look forward to battling it out with the better part of the league, & to watching this team compete at a higher level. I sense real confidence brimming from these players unlike the false bravado we could feel emanating from the team in past successful seasons. This team understands its potential is within reach, & that they will become as good as they want to.

Could we fall on our faces again, or stumble because of the schedule? Sure. Just as likely still, is the possibility of a few teams on our schedule not being the teams we think them now to be. I can't make any real predictions on how our season will turn out, but i think 9-7 is a good starting point. Much of that is born from uncertainty with how our offseason will turn out.

Here's to realism feeling more like guarded optimism this time around.

Hail

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People need to stop with the "first place schedule" stuff. Its TWO games. TWO. The other 14 games are the same as every other team in the division.

 

 

 

to this point here's the whole drill

 

Redskins play exactly the same schedule as the rest of the NFC east except

 

Redskins:  Carolina  Arizona

 

Eagles:  Falcons, Seahawks

 

Giants:  Saints, Rams

 

Cowboys:  Bucs, 49ers 

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Well I think the schedule is harder.  So right off the bat, if the team made zero changes positive or negative that could be a 2 game swing.  I am not saying the team won't improve.  I am saying I just wouldn't be shocked if maybe we won a game or so less in 2016 despite the team itself being improved.  4 game to 9 games in a single offseason is impressive but I think sometimes what happens is teams in the process of a rebuild may get to a certain spot ahead of schedule due to a lot of factors so then the expectation immediately turns to the next step even though big picture-wise there are still some lumps to be taken in the building process.

 

 

How is the schedule harder? Everyone in the NFC East will play the same teams with the exception of two games. Being the NFC East champs, we will get Arizona and Carolina next season instead of Tampa Bay and St. Louis probably.

 

And we already played Carolina this year. :)

 

The team definitely still has a lot of climbing to do, and still has to get some people to do it, but the idea they are going to regress next season because of a couple of harder games? The only way you can draw that conclusion is if you think they will be no better next season (or worse) than they were this season.

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Skinsinparadise writes:

 

 

I think the taking a step back is more a function of what the Redskins have done for years now.   They follow a good season with a mediocre or poor one.  But that's not a given.  It's just a sad and abnormal circumstance that has transpired during the post Gibbs 1 years.   But it doesn't have to be that way.

 

 

Yeah, I think that is what is causing this pessimistic view among many posters here. The Redskins had a pretty good season, so the assumption is they will be worse this season because that is what has been happening.

 

However, the Redskins didn't just break several Redskin records this year, they broke several bad patterns as well.

 

Having a bad season after a good one is another bad pattern these Redskins can break. :)

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Nemo- great post (although I hope SM doesn't bring in a "dearth" of talent).

Yeah, I think that is what is causing this pessimistic view among many posters here. The Redskins had a pretty good season, so the assumption is they will be worse this season because that is what has been happening.

However, the Redskins didn't just break several Redskin records this year, they broke several bad patterns as well.

Having a bad season after a good one is another bad pattern these Redskins can break. :)

Haha, good point. Personally, I could see us taking a step back because of several factors, but on the whole, I think we'll be an improved team.

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I enjoyed the OP, but I'm also with Mike.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if this team won 11 games next year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they won 7, 8, or 9.  It's just how the league works.

 

And really, with a 1st place schedule, you're looking at 2 weighted games, which right now is the Cardinals and the Panthers.  So yeah :lol:.

 

Scot has some work to do and honestly there is no one else in the world I'd rather have doing said work.  For once we can say that and actually mean it.

 

Obviously the offense has to mature and the run game has to be sorted out.  And we have to do something with this defense.  We're going to need a difference maker or two and some youth on that line. 

 

 

Couldn't agree more.  I hope we draft a stud D lineman with our first pick. If there's one out there.

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