Heading into the 2016 season, let's not mistake "pessimistic" for "rational"

[NoCalMike]

I think sometimes its not just a numbers game.  You have a guy like Garcon who has been here for a handful of seasons now.  He probably has pride for this franchise and fanbase.  His numbers might not jump off the stat sheet but I bet he goes extra hard every play, fights his tail off to make the most out of every pass etc etc......sometimes I do wonder if free agent signings take a season or two to really become one of those kinds of players for a new team.

 

Santana Moss comes to mind. As he got older and his difference making speed started to decline you could still see the passion from him, he was truly giving it his all. 

 

I think there is something to be said about keeping a core together, adding to the core, building it, growing it, and avoiding turning it over too often.

I like Jackson and would like to see him stay but his 2016 salary is a bit of a sticking point.  If he would be open to restructuring it is a no-brainer to keep him.

 

I still think he is more replaceable than a guy like Jordan Reed though. To me Jordan Reed is a guy teams continually try to cover and scheme for and they just can't do it. 

 

Jackson has his moments of excellence but he also can be taken out of a large portion of games.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

No reason not to expect to win a playoff game next season. 

 

I keep hearing that the NFC East was weak. When isn't it weak? Giants always suck, Iggles are a mess, and Dallas can't count on their best player being healthy.

[DogofWar1]

I think my expectation on floor is that we're at least alive in December, and not mathematically eliminated until, at the earliest, week 16, with us finishing 8-8 or better.

 

Anything worse than that, and I'd be disappointed.  If we do that and miss the playoffs, I'll still be cautiously optimistic about the future.  Another playoff berth would be tremendous though.

 

If Kirk grows a little more and we add a couple more pieces, I think we can play wild card teams heads up and win.  Carolina/Cardinals/Pats are another tier up, but we can play them close and hard and sneak wins there too.  Panthers and Cardinals will be interesting next year, especially Panthers.  Assuming they don't regress significantly, they will be a good benchmark for growth.  We collapsed in the face of a superior opponent.  If we don't next year, I'll be very pleased if we can couple that with a solid record.

[Going Commando]

Lots of guys do that, it's the minimum requirement for his position.  It's more than just his total receptions.  I could see this season coming from him back in OTA's, and I was vocal about it then.

 

Other guys can also run block, show up for OTA's, avoid hammy issues in preseason, and start 16 games for us.  

 

Just thinking about some of the catches Garcon made for us while he was getting clobbered, I can't lose that guy.  He's a fighter cut from the same mold as Brian Mitchell.

Not a lot of guys transform your route concepts and add verticality and big play ability to your offense on their own. It's not a minimum requirement of the position because the skill set is very rare. None of our other receivers can do it. Not many players at the NFL level are as quick and fast as Jackson, and withing that group, not many have his ability to track and adjust to the deep ball. And still fewer have his ability to take shallow crossing routes and short hitches and screens the distance against the second levels of NFL defenses.

Think about how the offense looked when we had Ryan Grant running our vertical concepts. It just didn't work. It took those kinds of designs out of our playbook. With Jackson in there you create a credible threat on each play where you have him run a deep route, such that it can dictate how the defense covers your play. And if the D doesn't give safety help against Jackson and the corner can't run with him, then you've got a big play on your hands. And also, you can turn clear outs like the one we executed against Green Bay in the first quarter into huge chunk plays when their coverage makes the mistake of losing him.

I like Garcon too, he's tough and physical and professional, but he's not special. Jackson is. He is a powerful weapon. If the choice became one or the other, you choose Jackson.

[Brixtion_skin]

I think it would be foolish to look too heavily at our past failures and apply those mistakes when evaluating our current situation; however it would also be foolish to discount what the realities of this season were.

We played the schedule of a last place team in a division decimated by injuries and epic meltdowns. Those two things combined to make for a schedule which was not as hard as it could have been. That being said we won the games put in front of us and realized we had more than a few diamonds in the rough hiding in the roster.

It's entirely probable that next years team will actually be a better unit and have a worse record due to playing in a division that is healthy and manned by different coaches as well as playing a first place schedule.

What I will be looking for is a more competent defense that's not held together with bubble gum and kite string and an offense that can consistently run the ball well without us taking a step back in the passing game. The idea of Scott having another f.a period and draft is really exciting to me in a way I don't know ice ever felt about an off season before.

There is no reason whatsoever to discount us as a legitimate threat to win the division again but falling short of that should also be viewed as a realistic outcome as well.

 

Spot on. 

[Going Commando]

There is an issue of opportunities.  If you pair Smith with Gallette, I suspect his opportunities are going to do down, which would likely drive down his sacks.  We have to get somebody that can pressure from somewhere else (other than OLB).

 

And Gallette had a one year contract so who knows what happens there.

 

I don't think Smith is ever a regular 14 sack guy.  He played limited snaps, but a large % of them were pass rush opportunities.  I don't think you can double his plays and double his pass rushing opportunities, and any more plays means he's not as fresh when he has the opportunities.

 

I think Smith can get to double digit sacks, but I don't think he's the next tier up.

 

Well, seeing as he got 9 sacks as a nickle sub as a rookie, I think it's a safe bet he can get to double digits, especially as he learns the position and builds a rushing repertoire.

 

Smith's true value to me is as an every down player.  I think he has the potential to be a dominant run defender and I think we should be playing him in our base packages next season and I think we should be designing and calling more plays/packages where he rushes from an interior technique on passing downs.

 

The reason I think he can be a special run defender is because of his high level play recognition and elite length.  He can play off blocks and he has the range to track down the ball when they run it his way.

[Probos]

First things first -- cut Griffin and sign Kirk.

 

Now, if that happens (whether tagging or contract) my attitude be one of lots of cautious optimism.  Schedule will be tougher and a full year of Kirk starts on film for everyone to see.  The success this season does not ensure anything moving forward, but the Skins should hopefully continue to trend upward.

 

Lets see how the draft pans out, who's retained, released and picked up via FA. 

[Koolblue13]

Let's stop saying rebuild, while we're building.

Let's stop thinking everything is a coaches fault.

Let's stop mentioning a certain now free agent.

Let's stop saying "one player away".

Let's stop acting like signing FAs is something only we do.

[lavar1156]

I think we should move Trent Murphy inside. He seems pretty useless on the outside. 

[Wildbunny]

60 catch 6 ft WRs are a dime a dozen.

WRs with elite speed to take it 80 yards are not.

 

I would say it's not even about any of those things.

Sure you can find hundreds of receivers that can catch balls when they are open by bursting through secondary on a go route. There's ton of that.

 

I'm more looking for receivers that can catch in trafic with both an ILB and/or a Safety closing in to deliver a huge hit, catch the ball and not fumble.

 

Lots of receivers are looking like great guys and whatever, but I rarely lots of them fighting to catch the ball. Either they need the QB to have some kind of pinpoint laser accuracy, or they'll let it go.

 

Let's stop saying "one player away".

Well, we were one player away from fixing KO and another player away from fixing punting and we did it!

 

We're just one player away, to fix one problem... at a time!

And we got still a bunch of problems to solve.

[justice98]

The returning injured players is reason for optimism. We shuffled and stitched together a couple spots that, health willing, should be much improved just by that. And we learned some people that could play (W. Compton, Dunbar) and some guys that probably will get shown the door (Robinson, Leribus). With the added bonus of making the playoffs in the process.

[Going Commando]

I like Garcon too, he's tough and physical and professional, but he's not special. Jackson is. He is a powerful weapon. If the choice became one or the other, you choose Jackson.

Ok I realize quoting yourself is bad form, but I wanted to clarify the position I took here.

I want us to keep both Garcon and Jackson. Garcon would probably have to accept a pay cut to make that possible, because he is probably overpaid for what he brings to the table at this point in his career.

But I really like the group of pass catchers we've built and want to see us sustain it for as long as we can. Only having it for one or two seasons is a bummer. New England, Denver, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Dallas, etc. all examples of teams who seem to be able to keep a fairly consistent group of receivers together to build good chemistry with their great QBs. I would like for Kirk to have the opportunity to grow with Garcon, Crowder, Jackson, and Reed.

Not sure anyone is advocating for this, but no matter what happens in the 2017 offseason, I don't want to see Garcon get cut this offseason. It'd cause 2.2 million in dead cap money and he's still a very useful player. The 2016 season will give us the chance to see where Garcon is at heading into his free agency, and determine whether we want to try and keep him.

[DogofWar1]

I think we should move Trent Murphy inside. He seems pretty useless on the outside. 

 

I do wonder if an attempt to do that will be in the cards.  Kerrigan, Galette, and Smith are likely the 1-3 for OLBs, and while having even more depth is never a bad thing, our DLine does have some question marks popping up.  We'll see how the shuffling goes.

[Veryoldschool]

I have not been as optimistic about this team since Marty's surge.  The Skins have a franchise QB for the first time in over a generation, an affable and able coach who proved himself this season in the Cousin decision and a very able GM that has improved the team.  

 

I expect further improvement in 2016 because the Skins look competently managed now and the managers are in alignment.

[TSO]

CB. Breeland is excellent and Dunbar is a great story (and someone with huge potential). Blackman did a good job saying he came in off the street but he is really 'just a guy". If we added a really good corner opposite Breeland it would make a big difference to this defense. Its a big need IMO.

 

 

Great all-around post, Martin, and I agree with pretty much everything... only thing I wanted to add here was with regards to Chris Culliver. I think he's a key cog in our secondary and I loved the way he was shutting guys down before he hurt his knee. It seems people only remember how he played after that and, specifically, against the Eagles when he clearly wasn't 100%. 

[Koolblue13]

Great all-around post, Martin, and I agree with pretty much everything... only thing I wanted to add here was with regards to Chris Culliver. I think he's a key cog in our secondary and I loved the way he was shutting guys down before he hurt his knee. It seems people only remember how he played after that and, specifically, against the Eagles when he clearly wasn't 100%.

contract wise, he's definitely coming back. I think corner is still a need, especially if we plan on playing with leads. Probably not first round, unless someone magical lands in our lap (tooc).

Now safety on the other hand. That's a dire need. Both spots, even though I like Hall with a year to learn. I think he's going to shine there.

[NoCalMike]

I am not so sure why there is a sentiment that the NFC East will be much better next year as a whole. Eagles & Giants bringing in new coaches, new offenses possibly more change.  Dallas is still running with a QB who can't stay healthy anymore and hasn't found a solution for a decent backup.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if 9-7 wins the NFC East again in 2016.  It doesn't mean we will win it, but I don't think the division is going to be that much better.

[TSO]

contract wise, he's definitely coming back. I think corner is still a need, especially if we plan on playing with leads. Probably not first round, unless someone magical lands in our lap (tooc).

Now safety on the other hand. That's a dire need. Both spots, even though I like Hall with a year to learn. I think he's going to shine there.

 

I guess I wouldn't put it as high on my list of needs with Breeland and Culliver. I think that's a damn good tandem there at starting CB. But we definitely need to continue building depth. I'd prefer it if we can upgrade to the point where guys like Dunbar or Blackmon aren't playing much at all, though their level of play was impressive for where they came from. And it might be that Dunbar continues to improve and provides that upgrade himself.

 

Don't forget Kyshoen Jarrett will get another offseason to improve, and he was one of our main slot guys. We saw how important he was to the secondary yesterday.

 

Agree with you completely on Safety.    

[Bacon]

Great discussion in here so far.

Looking over the team's need areas, which positions do you think are likely to be addressed in the draft and which will likely be filled by an FA? It's evident that Scot values the draft, and that the draft will be our key to long term success, but he doesn't shy away from established players either (Knighton). I agree that we will likely take OL at #21.

I'm curious to see how the RB corps is addressed. I've always felt that it's bad practice to fill that space with an expensive FA, so I think we'll stick to grooming college backs.

One major positive of this season that will pay dividends when free agency starts is that it will be a hell of a lot easier to convince players to come here. The culture change here is obvious.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think this team is well positioned for next year.  I know we've been accustomed to a set back the year after making the playoffs but I'd be surprised if it happened this time.  Granted though I was surprised when it happened in the past, too.  But 3 things stick out to me. 

 

A.   Injuries:  I know every year brings injuries but we were in the top 3 of the league in that department for most of the season. Hopefully the law of averages kick in and we have a relatively healthy year ala ironically 2013.   We arguably lost the best pass rusher, perhaps best CB, strong safety on and on.  Heck even if they have similar bad luck with injuries, Scot will have 2 drafts at that point to build depth. 

 

 

B.  Progression of a young team.  With a team with so many young/new starters I think experience alone should bring improvement.  This is especially so considering some of the positions in play -- its a cliche that young guys on the O line can take time to develop and a line gels the more they play with each other.  We have a converted WR playing corner.  We had a safety playing a lot of CB slot.  Heck even veteran D. Hall admitted he feels like a rookie learning a new position.  And, Kirk growing in an offense.   Hard for me to imagine these guys even just treading water in 2016 -- never mind taking a step back.

 

C.   The problems both running the ball and stopping the run were so bad this season -- it seems like with Scot on the job we could at the very least change from being horrific on these counts to merely mediocre/bad?  And considering how fundamental both things are to having winning seasons, its amazing they did as well as they did.   Hard for me to believe we will be stuck in quick sand on these counts. 

[Aireskoi]

Not a lot of guys transform your route concepts and add verticality and big play ability to your offense on their own. It's not a minimum requirement of the position because the skill set is very rare. None of our other receivers can do it. Not many players at the NFL level are as quick and fast as Jackson, and withing that group, not many have his ability to track and adjust to the deep ball. And still fewer have his ability to take shallow crossing routes and short hitches and screens the distance against the second levels of NFL defenses.

 

 

I didn't mean a minimum requirement for any NFL WR, I meant for a legit #1 WR.  Physicality is my concern with Jackson.

[NoCalMike]

I think we might be overstating the need to address the RB situation.  Morris seemed to make some progress towards the end of season, Matt Jones still looks like once he grows into NFL body he can be a factor, Chris Thompson still looks like a valuable underused skill position player and then Pierre Thomas perhaps is someone you could keep around if needed as an emergency 4th option.

 

I still think a lack of a healthy O-line was the bigger issue in the running game than the RB's themselves.

[lavar1156]

A youth movement is needed on the D-Line. I wouldn't mind drafting a safety in the early rounds as well. Need to sure up the ILB's too. 

[markmills67]

Re-sign Knighton, Give my player of the year Baker a new deal, Release/Retire Hatcher(age and injuries not a good combination ), Release Paea(bad scheme fit), and replace them with either younger FA or through the draft.

HTTR

[lavar1156]

Re-sign Knighton, Give my player of the year Baker a new deal, Release/Retire Hatcher(age and injuries not a good combination ), Release Paea(bad scheme fit), and replace them with either younger FA or through the draft.

HTTR

 

I disagree with a few of those moves. Except I would re-sign Baker too. Knighton was garbage all season. Wouldn't mind Hatcher back if he takes a big pay cut. We just gave Paea a huge deal so I can't imagine we cut him. I agree we do need younger guys.