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So do most models have this thing arriving sat or sun?

They were spread evenly I would say between Sat. and Sun. Now most leaning towards Sunday. A little too early to pin down timing.

NHC has it coming on shore Monday...

Edited by Skins24
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They were spread evenly I would say between Sat. and Sun. Now most leaning towards Sunday. A little too early to pin down timing.

NHC has it coming on shore Monday...

 

 

Yeah it's way too early. Weather Channel Meteorologist say the path is just too wide to make an accurate prediction.  They sad In theory it could go out to sea, which I hope.  I don't want it ruining my weekend. 

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Some forecasts have this thing going right over DC. That is in combination with a cold front arriving, strong high and low pressure systems interacting, even the remnants of tropical storm Ida could play a role. All at the same time.

That seems like worst case scenario right now. Knock on wood. I would say start thinking about how you'll prepare for the **** hitting the fan.

There are a few storm tracks that take this thing out to sea. Some have this thing wrapping around the Carolinas and taking a left turn directly in to us.

The majority of tracks have it plowing right in to the coast of NC and VA.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll
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It looks like it will peak as a cat 3 off the coast of Florida, and if it takes a left turn up by NC/VA, it will make landfall as a cat 1 or so. By the time it's going by DC, it looks like it will be a tropical storm or depression. Subject to change, but that's what I'm gathering ATM.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll
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This was posted by Roger Smith over at the americanwx forums.  I thought it was interesting.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46979-tracking-hurricane-joaquin/?p=3702210

 

Power outage forecast parameters from research and extensive documented case studies:

 

MAX SUST WIND _____ % POP LOSE POWER _____ mean duration power outage(hrs)

 

50 kts __________________ 25 _______________________ 6

 

60 kts __________________ 30 _______________________ 9

 

75 kts __________________ 50 ______________________ 18

 

90 kts __________________ 65 ______________________ 36

 

100 kts _________________ 70 ______________________ 48

 

110 kts _________________ 75 ______________________ 72

 

This storm scenario probably would not exceed 110 kts anywhere on land (sustained) but further increases in wind speed generally have only marginal increases in power outage as some grids are mainly underground and cannot easily be disrupted. Average restoration time increases faster however. Average restoration time is not a bell curve in appearance and if you take the 75 kt example where 50% lose power for an average of 18 hours, the chances are about equal that restoration will be 12 hours or 30, or 6 hours and 72.

 

As noted by others earlier, the drought followed by heavy rainfall makes it somewhat easier for strong winds to topple trees, and so these numbers which are based on several dozen case studies around the U.S. and Canada (in similar environments in terms of trees) could be conservative. We recently had the same thing happen around here when 60 mph winds hit with some rain but at the end of a long drought. Local hydro officials were surprised by the severity of power outages but it was evident that trees were coming down at a faster rate than they might have done partially leaf-free in November in a similar windstorm. The ratio appeared to be about 2:1 around the city.

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so it looks like regardless, we are looking at that 1-6" on Friday into Saturday ... which would be part of the system, but not the actual hurricane ... then if the hurricane does track toward the coast ... you're talking about possibly another 4-8" depending on locality. Some places could be seeing insane amounts of rain in the next 4-5 days.

 

I think I saw the 84 Hour rainfall map for one of the model runs that brought the hurricane inland (so, say, between today and Sunday afternoon) and it had most areas from the Shenandoah to the coast with at least 6" and some areas with up to 10-12"

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I think the only reason it is cancelled is due to media hype (at this point).

WASHINGTON (WUSA9) -- NFL officials have talked with members of the Washington Redskins about the possibility of having to re-schedule this Sunday's game due to potential impacts by Hurricane Joaquin.

http://www.wusa9.com/story/sports/nfl/redskins/2015/09/30/nfl-monitoring-hurricane-joaquin-redskins-game/73109952/

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WASHINGTON (WUSA9) -- NFL officials have talked with members of the Washington Redskins about the possibility of having to re-schedule this Sunday's game due to potential impacts by Hurricane Joaquin.

http://www.wusa9.com/story/sports/nfl/redskins/2015/09/30/nfl-monitoring-hurricane-joaquin-redskins-game/73109952/

This is a wise thing to do. Keep an eye on it for sure.

I for one, would love to see a game with torrential rains and a driving wind.

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Gov. Terry McAuliffe has issued a state of emergency as Virginia prepares for potentially dangerous flooding and the possible landfall of Hurricane Joaquin somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

http://www.insidenova.com/headlines/governor-declares-state-of-emergency-as-hurricane-joaquin-approaches/article_a54a59b8-67c3-11e5-acb6-1fd9c8d38e80.html?mode=jqm

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My fridge and freezer are stocked. Won't do much good if I lose power for 12+ hours tho

There's a 24/7 icehouse down the street from us where you can get dry ice fairly cheap.  $15 or so is worth not losing all your cold food.  Maybe there's one near you?

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