Ellis Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Latest models bring its track slightly east. Raises chances it could hit MD. Friday is when we should take the models more seriously. So early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I love extreme weather as much as the next guy, but I'd be happy just to see this one go out to sea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Meanwhile, in California 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wantarace17 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Got a cat 2 folks. Would not be surprised to see cat 3 strength tomorrow. Some METs on American are throwing around the potential for a Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Meanwhile, in California I seriously hope UnWise Mike and John Feinstein are not monitoring this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins24 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Latest NHC track has it coming up the bay, going over DC as a tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveo21 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I have an OBX trip planned for 10 days from now. Please don't wash out the road, I have been waiting on this vacation FOREVER. Wife and I were supposed to go on Monday. Very frustrating say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 watching the maps where this thing seems to make a hairpin turn is just nuts to me i think i'll add meteorologist to the list of degrees/careers i would pursue if given the chance to do it all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wantarace17 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 3 now with winds of 115 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) edit: Helps if you look at the timeline correctly. Looks like more models have the storm peaking at a cat 4, but most are in the high cat 3 category still. As of 5 am they have it at 120 mph. Edited October 1, 2015 by tshile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huly Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Could put a hurting on my weekend HS reunion in DC. Anyone know when do they announce HS football game cancellations in the DC area? Most HS football games have been moved to today due to the other weather system coming in tomorrow. WASHINGTON (WUSA9) -- NFL officials have talked with members of the Washington Redskins about the possibility of having to re-schedule this Sunday's game due to potential impacts by Hurricane Joaquin. http://www.wusa9.com/story/sports/nfl/redskins/2015/09/30/nfl-monitoring-hurricane-joaquin-redskins-game/73109952/ I figured this was coming. Latest NHC track has it coming up the bay, going over DC as a tropical storm I am not sure how a hurricane would do going up the bay. I can see that being more damage than hitting a coastline and going into land. Cat 3 now with winds of 115 I am hearing it might go up to a CAT 4 before landfall. Hugo was a Cat4-5 at landfall and the destruction was something I will never forget. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) I am not sure how a hurricane would do going up the bay. I can see that being more damage than hitting a coastline and going into land. I am hearing it might go up to a CAT 4 before landfall. Hugo was a Cat4-5 at landfall and the destruction was something I will never forget. Pssst...the bay is coastline. But I imagine if it went up the Bay it would cause a lot of damage due to the raised water levels from the storm surge (especially if it hits at high tide), which could be costly since there are a lot of high value properties around the bay. Edited October 1, 2015 by China Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 yeah and the area has flooding issues when it rains too much. a serious hurricane? I'm not that far from it, but i'm far enough that I think we'll be fine. down trees and siding/shingles being ripped off will be our main concern. guess i'll sleep in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mufumonk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I am not sure how a hurricane would do going up the bay. I can see that being more damage than hitting a coastline and going into land. Hurricane Isabel tracked just west of the bay and flooded every bit of waterfront along the way. Isabel was unfortunate as it hit during high tide. I'll never forget seeing water up to the roof line at Mike's Crabhouse or wading in chest deep water in downtown Annapolis long after the waters had started to recede. Many of the boats at our marina punched through the steel canopy as the surge pushed up the West River. We had to swim through the parking lot to get to our boat and tighten the lines as the water level fell. I've never seen anything like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pez Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think the worries with the bay is where does the water go? When a storm hits a normal coastline, it can spread across the coastline and the water has somewhere to go. With the bay, the water is surrounded by land, and the force pushing it, WAS the only escape. If this things does truly travel up the bay, expect some SERIOUS flooding damage around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huly Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pssst...the bay is coastline. But I imagine if it went up the Bay it would cause a lot of damage due to the raised water levels from the storm surge (especially if it hits at high tide), which could be costly since there are a lot of high value properties around the bay. LOL I am talking bay vs Ocean LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 i know someone with a house on an island on the river. i imagine this will destroy the entire property if it happens. sucks, is an awesome spot. especially for crabbing and fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HogNose Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Some good news...... http://www.nbc12.typepad.com/weather/ READ ON FOR THE NITTY-GRITTY...TWO STRAIGHT RUNS OF the GFS model, that have incorporated fresh aircraft-gathered data, have drastically shifted to the east on the forecast track. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues....this is a good sign if you'd like this to miss us in Virginia. Here's the computer model that ran at 8pm yesterday http://blogs.nbc12.com/.a/6a016766efbf6d970b01b7c7d6a8da970b-500wi And the same run 6 hours later (ran at 2AM) which has a HUGE jump offshore. That's quite a shift in the past 12 hours... we have to take this with a grain of salt. The overnight run sometimes acts a little flaky. http://blogs.nbc12.com/.a/6a016766efbf6d970b01b8d1609d4d970c-500wi This is the latest forecast track from NHC at 8am. They continue to say there is a large spread of possibilities, so this forecast track is far from certain. Today's forecast track EAST of what it was yesterday. http://blogs.nbc12.com/.a/6a016766efbf6d970b01b7c7d6e534970b-pi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heyholetsgogrant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) Doug Kammerer @dougkammerer 14m14 minutes agoChevy Chase, MD 57 degrees and rain. Today's forecast...yuck!! Also as expected track of #Joaquin Now farther offshore! Would bring us very little impacts . The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM modelsforecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over theCarolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecasta slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out tosea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing agenerally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibilitythat the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, theforecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east atthis time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models,but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensusmodels. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later todaydepending on how the models do (or do not) change http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml? Edited October 1, 2015 by heyholetsgogrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 the mid-day runs of the models appear to be taking this off the coast completely, and a clear and sunny weekend. That would probably be a great, great, thing, even for those of us who kind of like to track and observe weather phenomena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wantarace17 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Indeed good news. The turn north should be starting soon. Keep an eye on the 23 N latitude line. If it goes further south than that we can start to breath easier. Winds are up to 125 right now. Cat 4 is easily attainable. Some mets are saying this could be a high end cat 4 maybe even a cat 5, which would be truly historic. Stay safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wantarace17 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is OTS, which is great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pretty sure this is what the Euro was showing all along, as the only outlier. No? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pretty sure this is what the Euro was showing all along, as the only outlier. No? Yeah I believe the Euro had this all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcsluggo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 forecasts are swinging wildly now! i biked in this morning... in the pouring rain... with the weather ap on my phone showing 0% of rain in the morning, and high chance of rain in the evening rush (today). (now that the 0% rain downpour is starting to lighten up a little, the evening rush has changed from "heavy rain" to "overcast" ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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