Brian Orakpo: Current most over hyped Redskin? Or as good as advertised?

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

. ..... Here is where language and maybe hyperbole get in the way of understanding. I think most would agree he is not one of the very elite pass rushers in the league but I think I would take issue with you saying he is far from that and emphasising that in capitals. I would agree he is outside the very top bracket as a pure edge rusher but not that far off.

Because it's you and I kinda' like yers opinion wack, I've changed it to lower case. (Although I still think there's currently a significant gap between the top echelon and the next group in a lot of facets.).

Hail.

[MartinC]

Because it's you and I kinda' like yers opinion wack, I've changed it to lower case. (Although I still think there's currently a significant gap between the top echelon and the next group in a lot of facets.).

Hail.

I'm honored

[TheLongshot]

I don't think anyone in their right mind would argue that Orakpo is elite. That being said, he seems to be clearly better than his potential replacements. Rak is certainly better than Jackson. Kerrigan seemed to prove last year that he's more of a complimentary guy and that he's better if he has someone like Orakpo on the other side.

Thats a subjective opinion and one you are certainly entitled to. Its not without some truth IMO but him being injured last season meant we did not really get a feel for what his current development is. I thought he played very well in the Saints game and flashed in the Rams game until he got hurt - was that a trend or a flash in the pan? Hopefully he can stay healthy all year and we can find out this year.

I agree that this is an issue. The fact that Orakpo missed most of last season really keeps us from seeing how he developed. Most of this is spitting in the wind until we see what he has. Personally, I think the question of whether or not he's elite is beside the point. It is whether or not he's effective in our defensive scheme.

I also think trying to find an improvement over Orakpo won't be as easy as some make it out to be. It was obvious last season that without him, the pass rush struggled. If Orakpo has value, he has more value to us than to any other team.

[Hitman21ST]

I don't think anyone in their right mind would argue that Orakpo is elite. That being said, he seems to be clearly better than his potential replacements. Rak is certainly better than Jackson. Kerrigan seemed to prove last year that he's more of a complimentary guy and that he's better if he has someone like Orakpo on the other side.

I wouldn't say that Kerrigan proved he was a complimentary guy. He had a better season overall this year than last year. He would definitely do better with Rak, but he is a guy who can hold his own on his own.

[MartinC]

I also think trying to find an improvement over Orakpo won't be as easy as some make it out to be. It was obvious last season that without him, the pass rush struggled. If Orakpo has value, he has more value to us than to any other team.

Finding elite pass rushers - or even guys who approach elite is certainly very hard. They almost never hit free agency and while you can occasionally get lucky lower down the draft you normally find the guys who have the potential to develop into elite rushers in the top half of he first round and your odds are better picking in the top 10.

Based on this we had better hope Orakpo stays healthy and earns his next contract here because we don't have a first round pick at all next year and we hope it's a long time before we are picking top 10 again!

[Skinsfan4life83]

Extend him now. Don't waste time. Locking up Orakpo now will mean we won't have to waste time, money or draft picks TRYING to replace someone who is young, talented and vital to the success of our defensive scheme.

In my opinion you sign him to a fairly priced 4or 5 year deal with incentives. That way when he has a solid year next season and people realize just how integral he is to our success he won't cost an arm and a leg to re-sign. In the long term it will lock up a position so we can address more pressing concerns. Secondary, receiver, etc. No need to make a hole where there isn't one. I think it would be supremely stupid to trade him. You aren't going to get your value back. Period.

I've seen cherry picked stats from both sides of the argument in this repetitive thread. It really irks me how Redskins fans have to find a problem where there is none. Rak is here to stay. Get over it and move on.

[DogofWar1]

Extend him now. Don't waste time. Locking up Orakpo now will mean we won't have to waste time, money or draft picks TRYING to replace someone who is young, talented and vital to the success of our defensive scheme.

In my opinion you sign him to a fairly priced 4or 5 year deal with incentives. That way when he has a solid year next season and people realize just how integral he is to our success he won't cost an arm and a leg to re-sign. In the long term it will lock up a position so we can address more pressing concerns. Secondary, receiver, etc. No need to make a hole where there isn't one. I think it would be supremely stupid to trade him. You aren't going to get your value back. Period.

I've seen cherry picked stats from both sides of the argument in this repetitive thread. It really irks me how Redskins fans have to find a problem where there is none. Rak is here to stay. Get over it and move on.

I don't know if we should extend him now. Any new deal would come with a large signing bonus and some hefty guaranteed money. While I think the FO would be perfectly happy to do that based on his performances from 09-11, his injury needs to be taken into account. If we could be certain he's 100% healthy, and will remain so, then an extension would be good. However, I doubt that determination can be made with certainty.

[KCClybun]

I don't know if we should extend him now. Any new deal would come with a large signing bonus and some hefty guaranteed money. While I think the FO would be perfectly happy to do that based on his performances from 09-11, his injury needs to be taken into account. If we could be certain he's 100% healthy, and will remain so, then an extension would be good. However, I doubt that determination can be made with certainty.

They were heavily considering extending him earlier this offseason. Some of that was motivated by the cap penalty, but I think it shows that they definitely want the dude back.

And there's always the franchise tag. It was $8 million this year, which is expensive but might be slightly more palatable without the cap penalty.

[Est.1974]

They were heavily considering extending him earlier this offseason. Some of that was motivated by the cap penalty, but I think it shows that they definitely want the dude back.

I recall reading that somewhere, was it an insider tweet a month or so back?

[DogofWar1]

They were heavily considering extending him earlier this offseason. Some of that was motivated by the cap penalty, but I think it shows that they definitely want the dude back.

And there's always the franchise tag. It was $8 million this year, which is expensive but might be slightly more palatable without the cap penalty.

I don't doubt the FO wants Orakpo back, but I have to imagine his injury, especially since it's the 2nd pectoral injury he's had, weighs on them. Obviously, he didn't have time to heal 100% from the first injury, while he's had plenty of time this time around, but it's still prudent to be cautious.

The franchise tag might be a good option to lock him down next year if he does have a huge year. A lot of very good but not elite pass rushers will have a year where they suddenly get 15 sacks, but then drop back to reasonable levels the next year. If he had a huge year, he'd want a large contract, probably in the Allen, Peppers range, so making him play a year under the tag will help us determine if he legitimately deserves that large of a contract, or if he comes back down to earth and receives something more in line with guys like Cliff Avril.

[Burgold]

The one argument I find strange is that Orakpo hasn't lived up to his draft billing.

Orakpo was a mid-first round pick. One that has gotten double digit sacks, that offensive coordinators need to account for and was a legit pro bowl pick.

I think that is pretty good for a guy picked number 13.

[DogofWar1]

The one argument I find strange is that Orakpo hasn't lived up to his draft billing.

Orakpo was a mid-first round pick. One that has gotten double digit sacks, that offensive coordinators need to account for and was a legit pro bowl pick.

I think that is pretty good for a guy picked number 13.

I didn't really understand that argument either. In general, Orakpo hasn't been elite, but he has been very good. Generally, in drafts, there are very good players who go in the 1st, but then there is sort of a tier above them, the "elite" draft picks. Last year, it was Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Claiborne, and maybe Blackmon, Richardson (I personally don't think so, but a bunch of people felt that way), and Luke K. 2011 had Von Miller, Marcell D., AJ Green, Peterson, and maybe Julio Jones.

Either way, there are rarely more than 5 or 6 guys considered "elite" in any given draft, and then you get a bunch of really good players who are definitely 1st rounders but not top 10 locks. Orakpo, being 13th, was well outside that elite category, and I would agree that's he's performed very well, or pretty much in line with his draft spot.

[KCClybun]

The one argument I find strange is that Orakpo hasn't lived up to his draft billing.

Orakpo was a mid-first round pick. One that has gotten double digit sacks, that offensive coordinators need to account for and was a legit pro bowl pick.

I think that is pretty good for a guy picked number 13.

Because in general, people take draft position too seriously. Until VERY recently, the main knock on Trent was that he hadn't lived up to his billing as the fourth pick overall. Last year people still seemed unwilling to buy into Trent, even after a really strong 2011 campaign. It wasn't until this year that the "I'm not sure how good Trent is giving where we drafted him" talk died down.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Money comes into play with the draft position comparison too many times with the ridiculous initial deals the top 10 picks in particular used to get. Folk expected a lot for their rookie buck. Regardless of how out of logic a guy may of been taken.

Or at least they did before the new CBA mercifully brought that back to some sense of normality.

Hail.

[DogofWar1]

Because in general, people take draft position too seriously. Until VERY recently, the main knock on Trent was that he hadn't lived up to his billing as the fourth pick overall. Last year people still seemed unwilling to buy into Trent, even after a really strong 2011 campaign. It wasn't until this year that the "I'm not sure how good Trent is giving where we drafted him" talk died down.

I think the draft position talk does have some weight for very early drafted players, of which Trent would be a part of. Guys in the top 5 to 10 or so, depending on the strength of the class, are expected to come in playing like starters at worst and become perennial pro-bowlers/all-pros, so I can kind of understand Trent having that argument brought up. Orakpo, being 13th, not so much.

And of course, like GHH said, the new rookie wage scale will slowly reduce the ability to make that argument too, if you're not paying rookies like All-Pros it's more ok if they don't perform quite like it.

[Laxpunk2006]

There's been a lot of cherry picked stats thrown up the last 24 hours that I've left (and then laughably had side swipes taken for not responding to every post doing that); but let's look at the COMPLETE picture as regards the above Martin over Brian's first 3 years in the league verses the top ranked players by number.

Right.

All Linebacker Statistics for Season's 2009 through 2011.

Total Pass Rush Pressure. (Combined # of sacks/ QB Hits/ QB Hurries.).

1. DeMarcus Ware. Dallas Cowboys. 227 Total Pass Rush Pressure/ 1437 Pass Rush Snaps- 15.8 % of his Rush Snaps he got some kind of QB pressure.

2. Tamba Hali. Kansas City Chiefs. 216 TPRP/ 1337 PRS- 16.2 %.

3. Trent Cole. Philadelphia Eagles. 206 TPRP/ 1329 PRS- 16 %.

4. Clay Matthews III. Green Bay Packers. 172 TPRP/ 1221 PRS- 14 %.

5. James Harrison. Pittsburgh Steelers. 153 TPRP/ 992 PRS- 15.6 %.

6. LaMarr Woodley. Pittsburgh Steelers. 148 TPRP/ 967 PRS- 15.3 %.

7. Brian Orakpo. Washington Redskins. 144 TPRP/ 1111 PRS- 12.10 %.

I'm confused about the title on this one since Trent Cole is not a linebacker but I'll continue anyway. One of your main complaints has been that after starting strong as a rookie, Orakpo has not developed (in production or variety of pass rush moves), yet here you compare the production of his first three seasons against players in their seventh (Harrison), fifth (Ware, Cole), fourth (Hali), and third (Woodley) seasons for the 2009 season.

To fairly take into account development as that has been an issue (the lack of) for you, would it not make more sense to compare Orakpo's 2009-2011 production with either players of similar experience in that time (which Matthews fits fine), or compare Orakpo's first three seasons to the first three seasons of those players?

After your comment of "cherry picked stats" which I can only assume was directed towards me I would expect a more fair comparison.

5 years in, and without using the Saints opener as has already been put up within the thread as that's WAY too small a sample size to say his game has improved and changed from the 47 that went before; it remains to be seen whether he can up his game to the level his talents deserve. Or merely stay at the level he has been. At this stage of his career, that shouldn't really be a hope but a given.

As I've stated, the Saints opener was used as an example of a variety of moves Orakpo has developed over his three previous seasons in the NFL. Moves you claimed he was unable to perform. The analysis of that game had nothing to do with whether his game had improved or any production he may have had. You should reread that post because you continue to fail to understand the point that was made.

If you take the same 7 players over the period based on tackles, again, as noted in the OP, his coverage skills lack well behind. (Ranked these in descending order of total Combined Tackles, but the more prudent stat is Solo Tackles and Solo Tackle %.).

1. James Harrison. Pittsburgh Steelers. 238 Combined Tackles/ 178 Solo- 74.8 % Total Tackles were Solo Tackles. 7 Pass Defended.

2. DeMarcus Ware. Dallas Cowboys. 181 CT/ 148 S- 81. 8% TTS. 9 PD.

3. Tamba Hali. Kansas City Chiefs. 179 CT/ 130 S- 73 % TTS. 4 PD

4. Trent Cole. Philadelphia Eagles. 166 CT/ 139 S- 83.8 % TTS. 3 PD.

5. Brian Orakpo. Washington Redskins. 165 CT/ 107 S- 64.8 % TTS. 9 PD.

6. Clay Matthews III. Green Bay Packers. 161 CT/ 128 S- 79.6 % TTS. 20 PD.

7. LaMarr Woodley. Pittsburgh Steelers. 151 CT/ 111 S- 73.5 % TTS. 12 PD.

I'm very confused by your preface at the top of this. Are you claiming that combined tackles, solo tackles, or tackle percentage in any way relate to his coverage ability?

Even in playmaking ability (Sacks/ Forced Fumbles/ Interceptions) he lags behind the same 6 players over the same period. And Brian is the only one to have just one double digit sack season over the duration.

1. DeMarcus Ware. Dallas Cowboys. 46 Sacks/ 9 Forced Fumbles.

2. Tamba Hali. Kansas City Chiefs. 35 S/ 12 FF.

3. Trent Cole. Philadelphia Eagles. 33.5 S/ 4 FF.

4. LaMarr Woodley. Green Bay Packers. 32.5 S/ 4 FF/ 3 Interceptions- 1 Touchdown.

5. James Harrison. Pittsburgh Steelers. 29.5 S/ 13 FF/ 2 INT.

6.Clay Matthews III. Green Bay Packers. 29.5 S/ 6 FF/ 4 INT- 2 TD.

7. Brian Orakpo. Washington Redskins. 28.5 S/ 5 FF.

How about we try this list of names again, but instead look at each players first three seasons. That will give us an idea of where each player was at by the end of his third season.

1. Ware 32.5 S / 1 INT / 12 FF

2. Matthews III 29.5 S / 4 INT/ 6FF

3. Woodley 29 S / 1 INT / 4FF

4. Orakpo 28.5 S / 0 INT/ 5 FF

5. Cole 25.5 S / 1 INT / 6 FF

6. Harrison (first three seasons as a starter, his 5th, 6th, and 7th in the league) 24.5 sacks / 2 INT / 19 FF

7. Hali 18.5 S / 1 INT / 10 FF

8. Harrison's actual first three seasons 4 S / 1INT / 0FF

I assume that my desire for a fair comparison will be considered "cherry picking."

Brian Orakpo is a very good player (as you seem to have changed your stance to). He is not one of the elite but for the stage of his career he is at, he compares favorably to those that current make up "the elite."

[KDawg]

Total Pass Rush Pressure. (Combined # of sacks/ QB Hits/ QB Hurries.).

1. DeMarcus Ware. Dallas Cowboys. 227 Total Pass Rush Pressure/ 1437 Pass Rush Snaps- 15.8 % of his Rush Snaps he got some kind of QB pressure.

7. Brian Orakpo. Washington Redskins. 144 TPRP/ 1111 PRS- 12.10 %.

So in Sacks/Hits/Hurries he's number 7 in the NFL... But, he's overhyped? I don't understand the logic. We have a player that ranks 7th in pressuring the quarterback in the entire league and he's being billed as a guy that's "FAR" from elite? GHH, you're a smart guy. Real smart, actually. That doesn't make a lick of sense.

Furthermore, can you provide what a "hurry" is? I hate "stats" like that. Does a quarterback stepping up in the pocket count as a hurry?

Does anyone have access to the numbers of holds drawn from each of the players in the NFL? That would be interesting to factor in as well. -10 yards per hold is better than a sack (except for the fact that they don't lose a down for a hold, so I'd actually credit them as roughly even if the sack is <-5 yards.

If you take the same 7 players over the period based on tackles, again, as noted in the OP, his coverage skills lack well behind. (Ranked these in descending order of total Combined Tackles, but the more prudent stat is Solo Tackles and Solo Tackle %.).

Tackles isn't even remotely an indicator of coverage skills.

Even in playmaking ability (Sacks/ Forced Fumbles/ Interceptions) he lags behind the same 6 players over the same period. And Brian is the only one to have just one double digit sack season over the duration.

1. DeMarcus Ware. Dallas Cowboys. 46 Sacks/ 9 Forced Fumbles.

2. Tamba Hali. Kansas City Chiefs. 35 S/ 12 FF.

3. Trent Cole. Philadelphia Eagles. 33.5 S/ 4 FF.

4. LaMarr Woodley. Green Bay Packers. 32.5 S/ 4 FF/ 3 Interceptions- 1 Touchdown.

5. James Harrison. Pittsburgh Steelers. 29.5 S/ 13 FF/ 2 INT.

6.Clay Matthews III. Green Bay Packers. 29.5 S/ 6 FF/ 4 INT- 2 TD.

7. Brian Orakpo. Washington Redskins. 28.5 S/ 5 FF.

Keep in mind here that Woodley and Harrison fed off of each other... But still, top 7 is pretty damned good.

A player who's development appears to of stalled.

Where did you get this assessment from? He was injured for a very large portion of games last year. We have no idea if his development stalled...

And the second question as to what worth is better to the franchise going forward, either extending him into another contract or cashing in on his status verse whether we could ultimately do better; is VERY pertinent indeed.

I agree that this question needs to be carefully mulled by the organization.

[Vladimir L]

This is how lavar career went....and even kavars career looked vetter

[98ORAKPO98]

If Orakpo stays healthy this season, and has a very good season like I think he will, (hopefully being the first Redskin to ever win a Defensive Player of the Year Award) he will deserve to get a good contract and hopefully from us. QB is the most important position in the NFL, a dominant pass rusher is the second most important posistion IMO and I believe Orakpo can be dominant, he has had enough time to adjust and learn how to play linebacker, rushing from a 2 point stance, playing coverage and against the run. He says he's been working on becoming a complete linebacker and has also been doing MMA to help his hand technique for rushing the passer as well as working on new pass rush moves. I wouldn't trade Orakpo for any defensive player in the NFL, he's still young and I see him developing into a more dominant version of James Harrison. He is an athletic freak who can bench 515 lbs., squat 600 lbs., clean 380 lbs., run 40 yds. in 4.63 seconds, jump 39 1/2" high and 10' 10" long. We all saw how much the D missed Orakpo last season with the lack of a pass rush, you don't trade or let a player walk the caliber of Orakpo.

 

 

 

[mistertim]

Lol, dude. Didn't the thread you started earlier on this subject just get shut down? Take a hint, eh?

[MumboSauce]

So far I think Rak is solid, good but not spectacular. He has enough ability and talent to make a team choose him to double team between him and Kerrigan rushing the passer. Together they pose a challenge...singularly neither is premier imo. I think this is Rak's year to really show what he has, just a solid contributor? or a more elite pass rusher? Stay healthy, I don't think he's quite lived up to his draft position yet but on this roster we are better with him than without him. I like the guy but personally wouldn't extend him yet. Get em Rak! Prove it, we all want you to succeed. Hail!

[Mr. Sinister]

Lol, dude. Didn't the thread you started earlier on this subject just get shut down? Take a hint, eh?

 

Yeah I agree. I think us fans in general are at the point now where we just wanna see the dude get back out there 100% and make plays.

[98ORAKPO98]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2013/05/23/redskins-injury-roundup-orakpo-back-to-full-strength-fletcher-nine-others-making-strides/

 

He’s looked good. He’s had no setback at all,” Shanahan said. “He’s been going full speed the last four weeks. He looks as good as ever. Hopefully he can keep that up. He was hurt last year. You could see there was some soreness in there. Right now you can tell it’s completely healed, and hopefully there’s no setback.”

 

“I feel like I haven’t missed a beat at all. We’re learning some new concepts as a defense, but we still have the same terminology, the same scheme,” Orakpo said. “But my footwork is there and getting better. Pass coverage, I’m getting better in that as well. So I feel good. I’ve worked extremely hard since September when I went down. I’m excited to be back out here.”

[NoCalMike]

We haven't really got a chance to see him and Kerrigan in their prime as a duo.

 

Last year was going to be Year 3 for Rak, Year 2 for Kerrigan, where in theory if a jump in production was going to happen, that would be the time to see it, however Rak went down so early in the season it was not enough to make a final judgement.

 

Barring injury to either Rak or Kerrigan in 2013, we should have a much better idea about each player by the end of this season (and postseason  )

[THE HAMMER'IN HOG]

I am going to side with GHH on this one. We seem to fall for hype all to often, Rak is a phenomenal athlete, but doesn't play up to his potential, he has no pass rushing skill to speak of, it's straight-line speed, & brute force, which a bigger man (OT) will neutralize. If he's capable of developing a go to move to get to the passer he would be lights out, but the fact he's yet to develop that tells me he probably can't. I would trade him for picks while he still has value, and I say this only because it could help us to get better as a team, in general I really like the guy! But I really liked what R. Jackson did in his absence.

 

P.S. Really liking the new improvements with ES!