Brian Orakpo: Current most over hyped Redskin? Or as good as advertised?

[KCClybun]

He's very good, but he's not elite no. Elite is 15 to 20 sacks per season, (edit: just about) every year. Brian has not done that.

Is it fair to ask him to put up Hall of Fame caliber numbers year in and year out?

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

He's very good, but he's not elite no. Elite is 15 to 20 sacks per season, (edit: just about) every year. Brian has not done that.

Something this fan base should appreciate given # 71 and his compadre 'The Ssceetary of Defense' through the glory years.

That's elite status right there to live upto.

---------- Post added March-31st-2013 at 12:08 AM ----------

Is it fair to ask him to put up Hall of Fame caliber numbers year in and year out?

Yes when the fans in the main talk of him in that reverence.

This is a fan board after all that the topic ws broached on.

Hail.

[KCClybun]

Something this fan base should appreciate given # 71 and his compadre 'The Ssceetary of Defense' through the glory years.

That's elite status right there to live upto.

Hail.

#71? Charles Mann?

Or do you mean #72, Dexter Manley?

---------- Post added March-31st-2013 at 01:15 AM ----------

Yes when the fans in the main talk of him in that reverence.

This is a fan board after all that the topic ws broached on.

Hail.

Point me to a fan who has ever said Brian Orakpo is a potential Hall of Fame player, and I'll personally superkick them in the face and call them stupid for you.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Well then, I have four questions to ask you.

1.) What is his trade value going to be, and is that trade value going equal or better than the value he adds to the football team?

2.) Do we have anyone on the roster who can adequately fill in for him this season and in the future?

3.) Are we in a position to replace him in the draft?

4.) Are we in position to get a pass rusher in free agency?

Naughty man.

Some can't be answered. Others are subjective.

1.) Nobody could possibly answer that until such time as he's even floated out there as a possible acquisition.

2.) I wasn't personally advocating trading him right now. But in that hypothetical, I'd be happy giving Jackson and Robinson a shot and expanding Ryan's responsibilities. That's not to say the former two ae better than 'Rak. They aren't. But Jacksons a solid 34 backer. And Robinson has the potential. Given the stronger D-line, and hopefully strengthening through the draft; we could compensate this year IMHO.

3.) Not this draft. But things open up again the next.

4.) I don't know next years market, but I take you're word it's putrid so no to both years.

Point being I was looking at floating trading him as we go this year, and replacing him next. Now that's a while new, broader discussion. But that's the simplified answer to you're points.

Hail.

[Commander PK]

Something this fan base should appreciate given # 71 and his compadre 'The Secretary of Defense' through the glory years.

That's elite status right there to live up to.

Hail.

I had the pleasure of meeting Dexter Manley a couple of years ago. He signed a picture for me of him sacking Elway in the Super Bowl, and we had one taken together. Great guy. Dexter was an excellent player, but he will NEVER get into the Hall of Fame, neither will Charles Mann for that matter. Both were very good players. Brian's sack totals through his first 3 years are 11, 8.5, and 9. Dexter's first year he sat, and then the next 3 he had 6.5, 11, and 13.5. Then he went on to 15 and 18.5 sack totals in his next two seasons before slipping to single digit numbers for the rest of his career.

Bottom line, Dexter Manley had a couple of seasons where he put up "elite" numbers. Brian has had none yet. My point, is Brian has not even been as good as some of the very good players from the Redskins past that are not considered elite players of their era.

Kerrigan and Orakpo have the potential to be better than Mann and Manley were in their best years. The question is will they?

---------- Post added March-31st-2013 at 01:29 AM ----------

#71? Charles Mann?

Or do you mean #72, Dexter Manley?

He was referring to both.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Go hunting back through the ATN archive NLC.

Around the time TR1 was still jawing with 'Girls fans and winding them up on a daily basis. Ware was a constant topic. And MANY Eedskins fans openly claimed 'Rak better than Ware.

That's just a glaring example off the top of my head.

Hail.

[DogofWar1]

Why would anyone be opposed paying top dollar for any player in the top echelon of his position?

The trade talk stems from a view that he isn't, and rather than over pay (which I doubt this regime would FWIW but still a relevant discussion); you look at cashing in so to speak whilst he still has value as an outside edge rusher with decent numbers to a team that wants purely that. (You can argue that's us, but there's a strong argument for saying that limits things in a 34 with added LB responsibilities as opposed to his use that way, or as a pure rush end in a 43.).

How long you wait for a vet entering his 5th year to become the elite guy many hope is a whole other debate again.

Hail.

I don't think he'll get paid like an elite guy though, not if he doesn't play at an elite level this coming year. The FO apparently isn't going to extend him (which is smart because of the injury), or at least they seem like they're avoiding it so far, so we should probably just look ahead to his value on the FA market vs. cap cost this year. As for trading for picks, if he was coming off a ten sack year we might have gotten a 2nd rounder or late 1st for him. Off the injury, I agree with NLC, a 3rd is the highest we can probably hope for, and I think the FO takes the 10 sack Orakpo over whatever we could find in the 3rd.

As for FA, guys who get overpaid generally put up very good but not great numbers, and enter FA as the top guys at their position and end up in bidding wars where some team throws a ton of money down to secure the guy. I doubt that happens with Orakpo, unless he comes out and gets 15 sacks this year, in which case he'll deserve an elite contract because 15 sacks is elite performance.

But if he has 10 or 11 sacks, I think a lot of teams on the market will look at him fairly, as a very good but not elite player, who had a major injury in 2012.

When that happens, the FO will probably do what they did with Davis, which is give him a fair market offer, and if he doesn't want it, let him test the market.

Contracts and overpaying are the one thing I really don't worry about with this office. Fletcher, Davis, heck, even McNabb, where we didn't end up owing him anything, this front office has taken a very smart, measured, cost effective, and safe approach with its players, and it's paid dividends so far. I would imagine they'll continue. They didn't blow their load on Rogers or Landry either, so I see no reason they'd suddenly run out and offer Orakpo 10M per year if he was only worth 6M/Y.

[Hitman21ST]

Go hunting back through the ATN archive NLC.

Around the time TR1 was still jawing with 'Girls fans and winding them up on a daily basis. Ware was a constant topic. And MANY Eedskins fans openly claimed 'Rak better than Ware.

That's just a glaring example off the top of my head.

Hail.

TR1 was his own special kind of poster though. And a lot of the members just kept egging him on because he pissed off the Cowboy fans so much. I don't think you will find many (if any) knowledgeable posters who were saying Rak was a HoF player back then.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Seems the thread started as "Orakpo is the most overhyped player on the team..."

Then evolved into "Well, Orakpo isn't elite...."

Which morphed into "Orakpo is indeed good, but will ask for too much money at some point in the future, probably..."

Instead of trying to parse the meaning of "elite" like Clinton searching for the definition of "is" or losing sleep over something that won't happen for another 12 months...lemme ask this:

Who do you guys think has proven themselves more: Orakpo or Fred Davis?

---------- Post added March-30th-2013 at 10:51 PM ----------

Go hunting back through the ATN archive NLC.

Around the time TR1 was still jawing with 'Girls fans and winding them up on a daily basis. Ware was a constant topic. And MANY Eedskins fans openly claimed 'Rak better than Ware.

That's just a glaring example off the top of my head.

Hail.

If you have to go back that far, that means nobody has been saying it.

[Laron Burgundy]

One thing I would note is where do we rank Orakpo among other pass rushers in our division alone? At best 3rd, more likely 4th. It's not so much a debate if he's a good or elite pass rusher, it's that he's actually average when compared to everyone in the league. Obviously we could get worse, and we don't really have anyone on the roster to replace him, but I'm all for drafting a guy like Quanterus Smith and see how he develops.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

One thing I would note is where do we rank Orakpo among other pass rushers in our division alone? At best 3rd, more likely 4th. It's not so much a debate if he's a good or elite pass rusher, it's that he's actually average when compared to everyone in the league. Obviously we could get worse, and we don't really have anyone on the roster to replace him, but I'm all for drafting a guy like Quanterus Smith and see how he develops.

Outside of Ware who are the other LBs you'd rank above Orakpo in the NFC East?

[Commander PK]

Who do you guys think has proven themselves more: Orakpo or Fred Davis?

Of those two Orakpo definitely. Fred is another, could be an elite tight end in this league. He isn't yet.

[KCClybun]

Naughty man.

Some can't be answered. Others are subjective.

1.) Nobody could possibly answer that until such time as he's even floated out there as a possible acquisition.

2.) I wasn't personally advocating trading him right now. But in that hypothetical, I'd be happy giving Jackson and Robinson a shot and expanding Ryan's responsibilities. That's not to say the former two ae better than 'Rak. They aren't. But Jacksons a solid 34 backer. And Robinson has the potential. Given the stronger D-line, and hopefully strengthening through the draft; we could compensate this year IMHO.

3.) Not this draft. But things open up again the next.

4.) I don't know next years market, but I take you're word it's putrid so no to both years.

Point being I was looking at floating trading him as we go this year, and replacing him next. Now that's a while new, broader discussion. But that's the simplified answer to you're points.

Hail.

Keenan's not a 3-4 OLB. And if you did move him to 3-4 OLB, you'd then create another hole at inside linebacker. We used him as a rusher basically because we had to, but he's not a 3-4 outside linebacker. The knock on him coming out was trouble shedding blocks, which doesn't make him a good fit as an every down pass rusher. He was a nice wrinkle, but an every down outside linebacker? Not so much. His best attribute is his ability to cover, which is what would make him a really good MIC or ILB linebacker next to Perry.

And Rob Jackson can't rush the passer. That's why we had Zo or Chris Wilson in on pass rushing downs and Rob in on run downs, or we moved Ryan over the left tackle to pass rush. Rob's inconsistent at best, and if you want to talk about a dude only having one move, his primary move is a bullrush too. The difference is he doesn't have the strength to get away with it like Rak has, so he basically just gets stuffed. And a pretty big part of the job as a 3-4 outside linebacker is generating pass rush.

Rob creates splashier plays and I think that's why people like him; they remember the INTs and the pick six. But he went without a full sack in eight straight games. He got 1 sack versus Philly, then got no sacks versus Dallas on Thanksgiving, then had 3 straight weeks with one sack, before finishing out the regular season and the playoff game versus the Seahawks with no sacks.

His first half-sack was basically a gimmie since it was really Cofield that generated the pressure and hit eli and the Rob cleaned it up.

His next sack was u[ against King friggin' Dunlap where he just bullrushed him and took advantage of a bad left tackle.

His sack against the Giants at home, Ahmad Bradshaw or the o-line (or probably both) busted an assignment. Looks like Beatty took him first, then saw Ahmad Bradshaw flash and thought he was coming to help, but Bradshaw went out on a route, and Beatty blocked down on Bowen.

He straight up worked Michael Oher on a speed rush outside versus the Ravens.

His last sack versus the Browns, Trent Richardson busted a protection and let Rob run right back to him.

So, I'd say two of Rob's 4.5 sacks were his own doing. On those two sacks, he didn't show significantly better "moves" than Rak --- basically, he used the same two moves Rak used, a straight ahead bullrush and a speed rush outside. The half sack should've been a whole sack for Cofield and the other two were screw ups by the other team more than him generating pressure and creating a sack. And 8 games without a sack period.

Rob's a solid, serviceable back-up, but I think he'd be overmatched as a starter.

[Laron Burgundy]

Seems the thread started as "Orakpo is the most overhyped player on the team..."

Then evolved into "Well, Orakpo isn't elite...."

Which morphed into "Orakpo is indeed good, but will ask for too much money at some point in the future, probably..."

Instead of trying to parse the meaning of "elite" like Clinton searching for the definition of "is" or losing sleep over something that won't happen for another 12 months...lemme ask this:

Who do you guys think has proven themselves more: Orakpo or Fred Davis?

---------- Post added March-30th-2013 at 10:51 PM ----------

If you have to go back that far, that means nobody has been saying it.

Interesting with Orakpo v Fred. Certainly Fred got a one year deal for his efforts. I'd say they are fairly even. I, for one, was not overly concerned about us resigning him. I like the move, but I wouldn't have been crushed if he wasn't resigned either. They are both solid players to retain, and may eventually be great players, but for now they are fairly average with Fred actually being better when compared to his peers.

---------- Post added March-31st-2013 at 02:18 AM ----------

Outside of Ware who are the other LBs you'd rank above Orakpo in the NFC East?

Not just LB's, too restrictive when only two teams use the 3-4 in our division, but pass rushers in general. Giants had a down year for sure but I'd still say JPP and Tuck are better than Orakpo. Maybe that changes this year, but Orakpo is at 4.5 sacks over his previous 10 games. Kerrigan has 6.5 during that same time. Oh, and forgot about Cole, so there's another.

[DogofWar1]

One thing I would note is where do we rank Orakpo among other pass rushers in our division alone? At best 3rd, more likely 4th. It's not so much a debate if he's a good or elite pass rusher, it's that he's actually average when compared to everyone in the league. Obviously we could get worse, and we don't really have anyone on the roster to replace him, but I'm all for drafting a guy like Quanterus Smith and see how he develops.

Our division was very solid in terms of pass rushing for quite a few years, so him being 3rd or 4th best in the division is pretty darn good. Consider that his competition is guys like Demarcus Ware, Trent Cole, Osi, Tuck, JPP, Babin, etc. A few of those guys have been consistent (Ware, Cole), others haven't (Babin), but all of them have had years where they've put up double digit sacks. Orakpo has been more consistent than a bunch of them IMO, his lowest sack total was 8.5, while most of the other guys, in their off years, have gotten like 3 or 4, so I think he's deserving of being in the top 5 of our division, which is very good because our division is usually represented very well among the NFL's top pass rushers.

Also, team wise, 2012 was a bit of an aberration, a bunch of guys fell off cliffs within our division, but, in 2011 our opponents were 1st (PHI), 3rd (NYG), and 7th(DAL) in sacks. In 2010 they were 5th(NYG), 10th(PHI), and 16th(DAL). Our division pretty consistently had teams near the top in terms of raw sack numbers, and teams invested in pass rushers a lot.

Finally Orakpo was 21st ('11), 24th ('10), and 7th('09) in terms of sack totals in the whole NFL. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like anyone in the top 32 ought to be considered above average. Not necessarily great, but saying he's average is selling him short.

I will say that I do like the idea of Quanterus Smith though. Guy seems like a potential beast. However, he's got injuries too, if we're worried about Orakpo's injuries, we really have to be careful about Smith and his ACL.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Not just LB's, too restrictive when only two teams use the 3-4 in our division, but pass rushers in general. Giants had a down year for sure but I'd still say JPP and Tuck are better than Orakpo. Maybe that changes this year, but Orakpo is at 4.5 sacks over his previous 10 games. Kerrigan has 6.5 during that same time.

If we replace Orakpo, we're not replacing him with a DE, though. And if JPP played as an OLB his rushing prowess might take a noticeable drop.

And why just the last 10 games? Why not his last full season? Or the last 5 games?

[Laron Burgundy]

Finally Orakpo was 21st ('11), 24th ('10), and 7th('09) in terms of sack totals in the whole NFL. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like anyone in the top 32 ought to be considered above average. Not necessarily great, but saying he's average is selling him short.

Each team generally has a blindside rusher who is their best pass rusher. That's 32 in the league. Being, on average, 17th makes you most likely an average blindside rusher. Now, obviously, sometimes a non-primary rusher beat him in sacks in some years so that quick and dirty approach doesn't compare him to just primary blindside rushers, but I think it's pretty accurate as to what he is.

Try to envision him on the 32 other teams, now which ones do you think he would be their leading pass rusher? Just taking an informal look over it I'd say around half. That, again, implies he is average as a leading pass rusher. Make no mistake, that would make him an excellent secondary pass rusher for most teams, and of course every team needs more than one guy who can get to the qb, so it's really perspective more than anything.

If we take into account every edge rusher, yes, he's a good one. However, if we compare him to just his peers at blindside rusher he is average.

---------- Post added March-31st-2013 at 02:58 AM ----------

If we replace Orakpo, we're not replacing him with a DE, though. And if JPP played as an OLB his rushing prowess might take a noticeable drop.

And why just the last 10 games? Why not his last full season? Or the last 5 games?

Because it was really easy to divide by 10! Plus I think rookies take some time to adjust to the nfl so comparing him to Kerrigan in their full 18 games together might be a less accurate perspective on how the two compare currently. 10 games was the 2nd half of last season plus Orakpo's 2 games of this year.

And obviously we're not talking about replacing Orakpo with JPP (though I think JPP has the athleticism to play OLB), but it would be pretty meaningless to say Orakpo is the 2nd best blindside 3-4 OLB in our division, you could just as easily say he's the worst blindside 3-4 OLB in our division. 3-4 OLBs typically don't get the contracts that RE get, but they are both usually the primary pass rushers for a defense.

[DogofWar1]

Each team generally has a blindside rusher who is their best pass rusher. That's 32 in the league. Being, on average, 17th makes you most likely an average blindside rusher. Now, obviously, sometimes a non-primary rusher beat him in sacks in some years so that quick and dirty approach doesn't compare him to just primary blindside rushers, but I think it's pretty accurate as to what he is.

Try to envision him on the 32 other teams, now which ones do you think he would be their leading pass rusher? Just taking an informal look over it I'd say around half. That, again, implies he is average as a leading pass rusher. Make no mistake, that would make him an excellent secondary pass rusher for most teams, and of course every team needs more than one guy who can get to the qb, so it's really perspective more than anything.

If we take into account every edge rusher, yes, he's a good one. However, if we compare him to just his peers at blindside rusher he is average.

Well, you're moving the goal posts a bit here, you simply said "pass rusher" before, not "blind side" pass rusher. That's a different debate, and even if he's just an average blind side pass rusher that's still very good overall. Not every team is going to have a top 5 blind side pass rusher obviously, and honestly the difference between the twentieth best pass rusher and tenth best pass rusher is usually something like 2 sacks, so once a guy gets into the top 20 it's less about them personally so much as it is about the team around them and how lucky they are.

Also, a lot of guys hop into the top 10 for a season or two, then drop clear out of the top 32 altogether, Babin being a good example, and JPP being another, though his sample size is smaller. I would much prefer a consistent top 20 pass rusher who gets 10ish sacks over a guy who gets 12-15 one year, then drops to 3-5. The former, while not elite, is consistently disruptive. The latter leads to your D going flat when they're off their game. Orakpo from 09-11 was the former, and if he's healthy he should return to that level.

[DogofWar1]

dupe post.

[MartinC]

Folks I know you all probably understand this but I think it bears repeating - sacks are not the only way you measure the effectiveness of a pass rusher.

[Rpredskins]

Orakpo sort of strikes me as the Alex Ovechkin of pass rushers. He does the same move every time and defenders know how to stop it, but if he is put in a situation where the defense cannot give him full attention, he has the power and talent to make huge plays. I think with Kerrigan on the other side and even Bowen and Cofield up the middle, there is enough going on that his athletic superiority can take over... If we had a front 7 like the Jets or somebody with few or no other pass rushers, I would be more worried that Orakpo would just get shut down because he isn't good enough to be "the guy."

[Burgold]

Why do folk get their panties in such a bunch over an off-season, light hearted debate on a guy that raises legit issues?

Hail.

I think it's because these threads have a certain baggage or history. I suspect it wasn't your intent, but how often have we seen a thread where one player emerges and the mob suddenly declares the other guy a bum. What's wrong with depth some argue? I remember it well with the Cooley/Davis debate and even with Green/Bailey believe it or not.

On a side note,I don't think it's even your side note, it's hard for me to believe Davis is winning the Davis v Orakpo mini theme. If Orakpo is oft injured then what about Davis? Has Davis had a season without injury? He misses at least four games every year (though one year it was the brain injury that made him think it was a good idea to smoke weed while peeing into a cup). Orakpo has been a probowler and if sacks are like touchdowns or at least 20 yard plus receptions... Orakpo makes Davis look like Devin Thomas.

Seriously, Davis is the classic case of potential over production. He's five years into his career and people are still imagining or wondering what if he could get his act together. Orakpo has had multiple double digit sack seasons and you saw what happened to our ability to pressure the qb with his absense. Orakpo ain't overhyped on this board. He's underappreciated. :tantrum:

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Seems the thread started as "Orakpo is the most overhyped player on the team..."

Then evolved into "Well, Orakpo isn't elite...."

Which morphed into "Orakpo is indeed good, but will ask for too much money at some point in the future, probably..."

Instead of trying to parse the meaning of "elite" like Clinton searching for the definition of "is" or losing sleep over something that won't happen for another 12 months...lemme ask this:

Who do you guys think has proven themselves more: Orakpo or Fred Davis?

---------- Post added March-30th-2013 at 10:51 PM ----------

If you have to go back that far, that means nobody has been saying it.

My view is the exact same as states in the OP

Good player who has never truly fulfilled his potential. Totally ovenhyped and over valued by the franchise. But one in the last year of his rookie contract who, his numbers the first three years, and even more so if he has a similar outing this term, will want to be paid top end wages. So the question of what we do and what he true value is to this team and could we replace it if we for good value for him is relevant and still out there to explore for me.

Nothing's changed as the thread has gone on. And nobody's hung up on sacks. But when people keep saying he's a top rushing LB in this league, then there naturally gonna' be brought up and compared.

That time above was just an example man. You've been away TOO long if you haven't recently heard Orakpo talked about in such reverence on here.

Hail.

*And NLC man, I know and fully appreciate all that on Keenan and Rob. (Although I so think Robinson with his speed and athleticism could be taught to be a surviveable edge rusher at this level

. But that's a moot point as we're teaching him the inside role.).

Point being in your hypothetical of who replaces Brian right here, right now; I think we could muddle through another season mixing and matching.

But then anything in 2013 is gravy to me regardless as I'm looking at 2014 as the serious assault. But that's for another thread .....

[DC9]

I think there were more than a few of these conversations when we were transitioning from Chris Cooley to Fred Davis.

That said, Orakpo has a place on this team.

Is he overhyped by some? Absolutely.

Is he undervalued by others? Sure he is.

The truth is somewhere in the middle. I do think that the defense is better with Orakpo. I'd love to see him show that second move he's been working on for three years now. But you can't argue what he provides as far as getting around the edge.

[zoony]

Lots of kiddies in this thread, literal or emotional. Might start policing it a little bit more, it's the offseason and its grown more tiresome than usual