Brian Orakpo: Current most over hyped Redskin? Or as good as advertised?

[KCClybun]

What happens, NLC if Orakpo is reinjured with the same one he sustained last year, this year? Do we sign him to another contract or is it time to move on? Just curious what your take is on this and what direction we go in IF this occurs.

1.) You probably want to cut down on that quote so the mods don't ding you.

2.) I'm not worried about Rak getting hurt again until he gets hurt again. By time the regular season starts, he'll have had around a full year to get healthy and rebuild strength in his peck. IF he gets hurt again, then I'll worry about it, but until then, I'm moving forward assuming he's going to be healthy for 16 games this season.

[Hitman21ST]

Small sample size in half hearted games it's true DoW; but for all his talk of refinemt/ working out with Ware et all, he looked just as one dimensional last pre-season.

Hail.

I disagree GHH. His game looked much more complete last season. It might be a small sample size, but it was against one of the best in the league in Brees. He was able to get pressure when he rushed, and when he dropped into coverage he had something like three passes defended (and almost an INT). He's not LT, or Manley, but he is definitely as good as advertised.

[RWJ]

1.) You probably want to cut down on that quote so the mods don't ding you.

2.) I'm not worried about Rak getting hurt again until he gets hurt again. By time the regular season starts, he'll have had around a full year to get healthy and rebuild strength in his peck. IF he gets hurt again, then I'll worry about it, but until then, I'm moving forward assuming he's going to be healthy for 16 games this season.

Thanks for info about the quoting and mods, sorry. Guess we will see. IF Orakpo stays healthy he's the best pass rush LB we have and he does make Kerrigan better, I will admit that.

[rick1796]

Trading rak is a horrible idea. We could in no way replace his production. Clearly i ma not a huge believer in RJax. He is somehow very undervalued by those wanting to trade him. They constanly say he was terrible in run stuffing and droppng back, neither is true. They don't seem to realize how good ten sacks a year is, not how much he opens things up for other players. His injury history does give me pause but it is that exact history that menas we can't trade hime.

[sportjunkie07]

I agree with dog of war and nlc.

Ive been one of the harshest critics of orakpo, going as far to say before last season that rob Jackson could potentially fill orakpo's shoes quite well. however, that in no way means that I want to get rid of Orakpo, especially at this juncture. outside of rg3, he is the most physically gifted player on our team. he works hard and has very good character, which I think is very important for the younger guys. he may never reach his ceiling, but he was looking very good in coverage for the short time he played last year, which was promising.

some people think that because Jackson held his own last year, that we must get rid of either Jackson or Orakpo.. totally false. our dline is much improved with orakpo and Kerrigan as the starters, and Jackson as the versatile backup to both of them.

imo, if our dline stays healthy this year, it will be an elite unit, and we wont be talking about the worth of orakpo next year.

[Koolblue13]

He is the best pass rusher on our team and people expect lofty goals, like being better than the best. The fact is, he is an excellent pass rusher and we need him on the team.

The people who want to cut him or trade him, because he could be better or isn't good enough are the same ones who like to say "why do we trade all our "core" players".

If he comes back and is healthy and effective, he stays a Redskin and continues to be our driving force of our pass rush.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

..... They constanly say he was terrible in run stuffing and droppng back, neither is true. They don't seem to realize how good ten sacks a year is, not how much he opens things up for other players.....

He's had one double digit sack year through three full seasons. His rookie year. Production has dropped off since then. No argument he opens things up for other players, and vice versa. The more of your better players on the field for the opposition to worry about the better. As regards his coverage ability, well, we'll agree to disagree to save a back and forth.

Hail.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

With the current front office, why does matter how the fans rate any player? It would not surprise me if statistics showed that fans overvalued Orakpo, but that's one of the last things I care about.

If he's doing what our coaches and personnel men want him to be doing, they'll find a way to keep him at a mutually beneficial price. If not, they won't. I don't worry that Shanahan and Allen will overpay for a home town hero. Hell, they (correctly) cut Cooley last year.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

All I'll say is that I'm glad I read the last page first lol...

[2cents]

With the current front office, why does matter how the fans rate any player? It would not surprise me if statistics showed that fans overvalued Orakpo, but that's one of the last things I care about.

If he's doing what our coaches and personnel men want him to be doing, they'll find a way to keep him at a mutually beneficial price. If not, they won't. I don't worry that Shanahan and Allen will overpay for a home town hero. Hell, they (correctly) cut Cooley last year.

Post of the year.

[Taylor703]

Some of the top pass rushers in the NFL and how Orakpo stacked up against them after there first three full-seasons...

Orakpo-28.5

Jared Allen-27.5

Mario Williams-30.5

Terrell Suggs-30.5

Jason Babin-13

Demarcus Ware-33.5

His sack numbers are absolutely nothing to scoff at and he's adjusting to a different position.

[U C S D SkinsFan]

Orakpo has been SOLID so far...nothing spectacular, not bad either. He needs to put up or shut up this year...if he has a monster year, he'll be a redskin for life. I hope he has a monster year

[Califan007 The Constipated]

With the current front office, why does matter how the fans rate any player? It would not surprise me if statistics showed that fans overvalued Orakpo, but that's one of the last things I care about.

If he's doing what our coaches and personnel men want him to be doing, they'll find a way to keep him at a mutually beneficial price. If not, they won't. I don't worry that Shanahan and Allen will overpay for a home town hero. Hell, they (correctly) cut Cooley last year.

Absolutely true :yes:...

Fans rate a player based on expectations and draft status, and whether or not the player has lived up to both. Like Shanahan and his coaching staff give a flying **** about any of that.

[The Full Monty]

Rak is good, not great. Definitely overrated. Good for 7-8 sacks a year in his current position.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Rak is good, not great. Definitely overrated. Good for 7-8 sacks a year in his current position.

He's never gotten less than 8.5 sacks yet you're saying he's good for only 7-8 a year?

[CaliSkinsFan92]

Rak is good as either a rusher or because he is getting doubled. When he is out there it makes the D have to account for and double either Kerrigan or himself last year they didn't have to do that and it really slowed down our rush. Hopefully next year with all back at full strength he'll show out.

[2cents]

Rak is good, not great. Definitely overrated. Good for 7-8 sacks a year in his current position.

Overrated compared to the other outside LBs on the team who average 9 sacks a year? We don't have one btw.....

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

He's never gotten less than 8.5 sacks yet you're saying he's good for only 7-8 a year?

Maybe he's looking at the downward trend of 8.75 sacks average over the last two years of play after the strong 11 sack opener? Shrugs.

Hail.

[Koolblue13]

With Rak back, hopefully JJ and BM healthy, our offense going wild and forcing a lot of drop backs, we gonna have a ball.

[ADF]

How can Orakpo be overrated when he's constantly picked apart by the fans. The guy has done nothing but improved his overall game every year he's been here. He's clearly the best pass rusher on the team. The team fell off a cliff in terms of pressuring the QB last season. To put it into perspective, it's even worse when you consider the rate at which we were scoring points. We got some pretty decent leads in games that should have allowed us to tee off on QBs but teams were able to crawl back into games. People are extremely hard on the secondary (and rightfully so) but a lot of those big plays took time to develop and QBs found themselves way to comfortable in the pocket.

[KCClybun]

The dumbest part of this argument is the double digit sacks bit. Rak had 9 sacks in 2011. The difference between him having one double digit sack season or two is one friggin sack. He could trip on a pile and get another sack.

[Laxpunk2006]

Don't get me wrong, he can still collapse the pocket and wreck haveck in the backfield, but his limitations within that certainly don't justify the esteem many hold him in IMHO. He has one move, period. And that's to bull rush opponents. There's nothing else in his pass rush reportoi.

This is unequivocally false.

Saints Game 2012

With 5:45 left in the second quarter Orakpo starts outside and reverses inside on his rush towards Brees. Unfortunately on that play Graham makes a ridiculous one handed catch between Fletcher and Williams. With 3:40ish left in the second Orakpo tries a similar move after getting doubled by the LT/LG. 5:00 left in the third similar counter move. Another counter with 2:00 in the third. With 10:41 in the fourth Orakpo starts inside and spin moves back outside (Kerrigan gets the sack). 3:00 in the fourth another inside – out counter.

Not a “move” but it’s worth mentioning that two plays in a row starting at 2:40 from our own 2 yard line Orakpo bats down two balls in a row.

So in one game we've seen Orakpo speed rush outside, bullrush, counter outside to inside, and even a spin move. His “go to” moves appear to be a bull rush and an outside speed rush but even those aren’t necessarily the same move.

Does Orakpo have enough moves? Maybe, maybe not. Are they developed enough? Maybe not. Does he have other moves? Yes. That's all part of growing as a player. Developing and improving different moves throughout their career. We’ve watched Orakpo start with 1 (really 2 in my opinion) moves and begin adding more throughout his short career. There is sound reason to believe this trend will continue and he will continue to improve at these secondary moves.

Do you honestly think that other top pass rushers don't have a move or two that they favor? Does Freeney not favor his spin move? If one is more effective they're going to use it more often while using the others to catch the blocker off guard or set them up for a future move.

If you want to say Orakpo doesn’t utilize other moves often enough or with enough success that is a conversation we can have. Simply stating he doesn’t use them or is incapable of using them really closes off any realistic opportunity to have a discussion. Even more so when you add “period” as that implies you are not open to any sort of debate. I would suggest you rewatch the game and a quarter or so Orakpo played in this past season to see that he does in fact have multiple moves that he uses regularly.

Regarding his coverage, with 10:00 left in the second quarter of the Saints game I have now watched him cover Colston (On Graham's TD play), and blanket Graham on DHall's sack. PFF has him listed as pass rushing 40 times and dropping into coverage 14 that game. Of those 14 snaps he was targeted three times with 2 receptions (24 yards) and a PD. Certainly not a strength of his game but he wasn’t being targeted as a weakness every time he gets in a coverage situation either. Kerrigan’s 2012 numbers are very comparable.

Folk embarrassingly claim he gets unfairly held like that doesn't happen all over the league to evey decent pass rusher worth his salt. The difference being the great ones have multiple moves to beat those holds. Brian doesn't. 4 years into his pro career.

Well is 2011 Orakpo did draw quite a few holding calls. Whether you think he should be able to defeat an illegal block or not it is still a positive play for the defense, as we saw his being held winning us a game against Dallas. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/who-drew-most-offensive-holding-flags-2011

Again, see above for evidence Orakpo has multiple moves.

In addition rewatching this Saints game from 2012 I've already watched the RT Strief (With Orakpo switching sides with Kerrigan) jump early twice and the second quarter still has 10:00 left. Drawing penalties by false starts or holding penalties are wins for the defense.

To hear Reddkin fans talk, you'd think he was our answer to DeMarcus Ware. When in truth, in would be insulting to Ware to put him in the same bracket. The numbers alone don't deserve comparison. Orakpo, whilst far from bad, is a one trick poney who's limitations in a 34 are glaring. As a pure rush end in a 43 D, or edge rushing OLB, he'd be pretty darn effective. But when the responsibility's go up as 34.LB, he's found wanting. His pass coverage skills leave a LOT to be desired. And that's imperative for the position in this D. And in NFC games, he has a woeful record of 3.5 sacks through 18 games. That is not the record of a great pass rusher.

Interesting you would say that Redskins fans compare him to Ware (I haven’t seen this) then talk about other OLB responsibilities. As far as succeeding as an edge rushing OLB, is that not his role in our defense? I wouldn’t say that coverage is anymore imperative for linebackers in our scheme than any other defensive scheme. Really our 3-4 is based off of Pittsburgh’s in which the ILB’s are the primary cover players.

Good and effective player no doubt. Great player he most assuredly isn't.

And when you look at what we're developing here in the LB core, you begin to question even more if he's worth paying the money he'll demand.

What money he demands is purely hypothetical so I won’t delve into that.

Ryan Kerrigan for me is everything 'Rak isn't. And a far better overall player. He has a non stop motor, works his tail end off to improve (back to the 4 year vet Orakpo and his one rush move); and he is good in pass pro. Ryan's far more than just a pass rusher. (And his numbers are comparable to Orakpo.). He can do what Brian can't. Make big tackles in the open field. A staple of a 34 LB's job.

Ryan Kerrigan compliments Orakpo very well. He seems to fare well against the run and the pass while being less effective rushing the passer. His “non stop motor” as you put it puts him in good position to “clean up” when other players create pressure that forces the QB to move within the pocket. As far as his numbers being comparable to Orakpo’s in some places they are. Fortunately they can both be on the field at the same time and they play different roles. I would sincerely hope that Kerrigan, a player in a position with more run/coverage responsibilities would excel in those areas more than a player not asked to do so. Pass rushing is much more than sack totals as darrelgreenie has mentioned. It’s hits, hurries, etc. It’s the ability to draw holding penalties, cause false starts, and draw double teams. Kerrigan does a good job accumulating hits and hurries and has had comparable sack totals. I would be interested to see how often his is double teamed, held, or causing a false start. I analyzed the 2011 Rams game in the other Rob Jackson/Orakpo thread and Orakpo was getting doubled roughly twice as often as Kerrigan. I would be curious to see if that attention shifted to him in 2012 but I honestly don’t know the answer to that question.

As far as making open field tackles I suggest you rewatch the first quarter of the Rams game before Brian’s injury. At 14:00 remaining in the first quarter the Rams motion Danny Amendola (the same Amendola that terrorized our defense all day) to the slot. Orakpo shifts out to cover him in single man coverage. Bradford completes the ball to Amendola at the LOS where Orakpo meets him for no gain.

These stats are per PFF. I know some fans have varying opinions on them but at the moment I believe it’s the best we have to go off of. Their grading of DB’s seems to be poor (as pointed out by LL) but their grading of front seven players seems to be more accurate. This can be seen as a starting point if anyone would like to do further analysis.

Brian Orakpo 2012

Overall: +4.8 Run Defese: +0.7 Pass Rush: +4.1 Pass Coverage: +0.7 QB Sack: 1.0 QB Hit: 0 QB Hurries: 4 BP:2

2011

Overall: +18.0 Run Defese: -3.0 Pass Rush: +20.0 Pass Coverage: -0.4 QB Sack: 10.0 QB Hit: 6 QB Hurries: 43 BP:4

Ryan Kerrigan 2012

Overall: -0.4 Run Defese: -5.0 Pass Rush: +3.7 Pass Coverage: +1.7 QB Sack: 9.0 QB Hit: 9 QB Hurries: 51 BP:5

It’s worth mentioning that his highest individual grades overall and as a pass rusher came in Week 1 with Orakpo on the field.

2011

Overall: -4.6 Run Defese: -4.4 Pass Rush: +3.0 Pass Coverage: -3.7 QB Sack: 9.0 QB Hit: 13 QB Hurries: 35 BP:2

Rob Jackson 2012

Overall: -0.7 Run Defese: -1.6 Pass Rush: -8.0 Pass Coverage: +7.5 QB Sack: 5.0 QB Hit: 2 QB Hurries: 10 BP: 1

2011

Overall: -0.8 Run Defese: -1.8 Pass Rush: +1.2 Pass Coverage: +0.6 QB Sack: 0.0 QB Hit: 1 QB Hurries: 2 BP: 0

Now obviously Jackson (2011) and Orakpo (2012) will have lower totals due to less playing time. I showed both seasons for context.

The same with Rob Jackson. I'm not for one minute suggesting Rob's as talented as Brian. But as an all round 34 LB his worth is higher than Orakpo's IMHO. He's far better in coverage, has the same constant motor as Kerrigan. And he's shown he can contribute in turnovers and sacks and getting into opposing backfields. And let's not forget last years very prudent 4th round pick, Keenan Robinson; was real versatile in college and was a very effective edge rusher with his speed an athleticism when lined up there for the Longhorns.

Again, I fully expect flack as this goes against the norm questioning a current fan favourite.

I’m not going to get into Keenan Robinson because that again is purely based off “potential” and he plays an entirely different position. Rob Jackson has been discussed heavily in the “Does Jackson make Orakpo expendable” thread but still, see above. I don’t think you’re going against any norm either. There is a thread of Jackson vs. Orakpo that is a few hundred pages long at this point.

But all things considered, not least his shoulder/ pectoral muscle injury concerns; I seriously wonder whether we might be better cashing in on 'Rak whilst we still can in the coming months rather than thinking about extending and over paying for a guy who just does'nt live upto the plaudits if you look beyond the hype.Hail.

I’m not sure Orakpo has much value at the moment as an expiring contract coming off an injury. For the right price I think anyone (other than Robert) should be available. As far as extending and “over paying” a player is purely speculation and your opinion. I believe our best option is to allow Orakpo to play out his current contract and act accordingly at the end of next season. If he performs well and shows to be healthy he is a valuable piece to the defense moving forward. If he proves to be unable to get back to form or is ineffective then you move on. We’re not in a position where we need to make a decision on Orakpo now.

He's had one double digit sack year through three full seasons. His rookie year. Production has dropped off since then. No argument he opens things up for other players, and vice versa. The more of your better players on the field for the opposition to worry about the better. As regards his coverage ability, well, we'll agree to disagree to save a back and forth.

Orakpo’s total pass rushing grades and hurries have been improving since his rookie season. Again, there is more to pass rushing that sack totals.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

So your saying he had a good game opening day last year Lax? That's what I took from that putting saide the previous 32 games.

FWIW, I sincerely hope this one game improvement in both pass rush skills and coverage ability continues in 2013 for all our sakes.

Thanks for highlighting that one outing. Appreciated.

Hail.

[Metskins]

I've always thought he was overhyped. That doesn't mean he's not a good player. He just isn't great, IMO. This pectoral issue has now become something of a nagging issue for the guy. He knows he has to bring it this year if he wants a huge 25 million guaranteed deal. I've never questioned his leadership or willingness to perform, I just don't think he's as good as advertised.

[Laxpunk2006]

So your saying he had a good game opening day last year Lax? That's what I took from that putting saide the previous 32 games.

FWIW, I sincerely hope this one game improvement in both pass rush skills and coverage ability continues in 2013 for all our sakes.

Thanks for highlighting that one outing. Appreciated.

Hail.

While I appreciate what you add to the discussion by attempting to ignore analysis that runs contrary to your opinion, no, my point is not that he had one good game. In fact my analysis of the Saints game had little to nothing to do with how he fared rushing the passer, dropping into coverage (other than pointing out a pair of pass deflections), or defending the run. The point is that you claim he has not developed more than one move in his 4 seasons of being in the NFL. I chose his most recent game played to highlight where his development currently stands. In that game he showed a wide variety of moves, which you believe he does not possess.

I did not cherry pick a game in which his production (sacks as that seems to be what concerns you) was high(he had 0.0), but instead his most recent game to discover what his arsenal of moves may be at this point in time. Not two years ago, not his rookie season, but right now.