d0ublestr0ker0ll

The Non-Winter Weather Thread

Recommended Posts

thanks for the heads up... will definitely be cleaning out my gutters this evening :-s

 

ugh. i suppose i need to double check those too.... good call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So do most models have this thing arriving sat or sun?

They were spread evenly I would say between Sat. and Sun. Now most leaning towards Sunday. A little too early to pin down timing.

NHC has it coming on shore Monday...

Edited by Skins24

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They were spread evenly I would say between Sat. and Sun. Now most leaning towards Sunday. A little too early to pin down timing.

NHC has it coming on shore Monday...

 

 

Yeah it's way too early. Weather Channel Meteorologist say the path is just too wide to make an accurate prediction.  They sad In theory it could go out to sea, which I hope.  I don't want it ruining my weekend. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some forecasts have this thing going right over DC. That is in combination with a cold front arriving, strong high and low pressure systems interacting, even the remnants of tropical storm Ida could play a role. All at the same time.

That seems like worst case scenario right now. Knock on wood. I would say start thinking about how you'll prepare for the **** hitting the fan.

There are a few storm tracks that take this thing out to sea. Some have this thing wrapping around the Carolinas and taking a left turn directly in to us.

The majority of tracks have it plowing right in to the coast of NC and VA.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like it will peak as a cat 3 off the coast of Florida, and if it takes a left turn up by NC/VA, it will make landfall as a cat 1 or so. By the time it's going by DC, it looks like it will be a tropical storm or depression. Subject to change, but that's what I'm gathering ATM.

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could put a hurting on my weekend HS reunion in DC. 

 

Anyone know when do they announce HS football game cancellations in the DC area?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This was posted by Roger Smith over at the americanwx forums.  I thought it was interesting.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46979-tracking-hurricane-joaquin/?p=3702210

 

Power outage forecast parameters from research and extensive documented case studies:

 

MAX SUST WIND _____ % POP LOSE POWER _____ mean duration power outage(hrs)

 

50 kts __________________ 25 _______________________ 6

 

60 kts __________________ 30 _______________________ 9

 

75 kts __________________ 50 ______________________ 18

 

90 kts __________________ 65 ______________________ 36

 

100 kts _________________ 70 ______________________ 48

 

110 kts _________________ 75 ______________________ 72

 

This storm scenario probably would not exceed 110 kts anywhere on land (sustained) but further increases in wind speed generally have only marginal increases in power outage as some grids are mainly underground and cannot easily be disrupted. Average restoration time increases faster however. Average restoration time is not a bell curve in appearance and if you take the 75 kt example where 50% lose power for an average of 18 hours, the chances are about equal that restoration will be 12 hours or 30, or 6 hours and 72.

 

As noted by others earlier, the drought followed by heavy rainfall makes it somewhat easier for strong winds to topple trees, and so these numbers which are based on several dozen case studies around the U.S. and Canada (in similar environments in terms of trees) could be conservative. We recently had the same thing happen around here when 60 mph winds hit with some rain but at the end of a long drought. Local hydro officials were surprised by the severity of power outages but it was evident that trees were coming down at a faster rate than they might have done partially leaf-free in November in a similar windstorm. The ratio appeared to be about 2:1 around the city.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ohh..... not good.... pretty much right on top of landover during gametime...

Believe Huly is getting details from the Redskins on their approach on deciding on the game and notification.

 

Wait, do we really think that the game is in jeopardy?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The projected rainfall through Saturday. This has nothing to do with the hurricane.

image_33.jpg

And here's some spaghetti I spilled on a map.

image_34.jpg

Edited by d0ublestr0ker0ll
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so it looks like regardless, we are looking at that 1-6" on Friday into Saturday ... which would be part of the system, but not the actual hurricane ... then if the hurricane does track toward the coast ... you're talking about possibly another 4-8" depending on locality. Some places could be seeing insane amounts of rain in the next 4-5 days.

 

I think I saw the 84 Hour rainfall map for one of the model runs that brought the hurricane inland (so, say, between today and Sunday afternoon) and it had most areas from the Shenandoah to the coast with at least 6" and some areas with up to 10-12"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most of those seem to have it landing somewhere in North Carolina.

Plus this weekend's system looks like it will be the worst in eastern NC. Could be a double whammy for them. Yikes. A foot-plus of rain when it's all said and done is possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The time for preparation is now if you live on the Eastern Shore or along the bay. The track is far from set in stone but watches and warning could go up by Thursday along the NC/VA border. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the only reason it is cancelled is due to media hype (at this point).

WASHINGTON (WUSA9) -- NFL officials have talked with members of the Washington Redskins about the possibility of having to re-schedule this Sunday's game due to potential impacts by Hurricane Joaquin.

http://www.wusa9.com/story/sports/nfl/redskins/2015/09/30/nfl-monitoring-hurricane-joaquin-redskins-game/73109952/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WASHINGTON (WUSA9) -- NFL officials have talked with members of the Washington Redskins about the possibility of having to re-schedule this Sunday's game due to potential impacts by Hurricane Joaquin.

http://www.wusa9.com/story/sports/nfl/redskins/2015/09/30/nfl-monitoring-hurricane-joaquin-redskins-game/73109952/

This is a wise thing to do. Keep an eye on it for sure.

I for one, would love to see a game with torrential rains and a driving wind.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My fridge and freezer are stocked. Won't do much good if I lose power for 12+ hours tho

There's a 24/7 icehouse down the street from us where you can get dry ice fairly cheap.  $15 or so is worth not losing all your cold food.  Maybe there's one near you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.