Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins

2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2


zCommander

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

I think at minimum we could get a third rounder for Sam Howell, but I think a second rounder from a team that missed out on a QB is definitely possible too, no guarantees on that though.

 

I agree.  If Josh Rosen and Jimmie Garappolo can get second rounders, then that should be our asking price for Sam.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

The Rams and Jets games are winnable, even as bad as we are

I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell we beat the Rams, in LA. I worry about the Cowboys more—mostly because they’ll be resting starters, most likely, and rivalry games like that go awry all the time. The Jets is a winnable game, depending how Wilson plays. If he shows like last week, we’ll get killed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell we beat the Rams, in LA. I worry about the Cowboys more—mostly because they’ll be resting starters, most likely, and rivalry games like that go awry all the time. The Jets is a winnable game, depending how Wilson plays. If he shows like last week, we’ll get killed.

 

The Rams game is interesting because on paper I think the teams are fairly close.  That said the Rams have exceeded how their talent looked on paper this year.  Coming into this year I had the Cardinals as the worst team and the Rams as the second worst team in the NFL.   I was a little too low on the Cardinals and way too low on the Rams in hindsight.  All that said, when you look at their roster they have a bunch of low level starters on it.  So while I would bet on the Rams straight up against the Commanders I do view it as a winnable game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

The Rams game is interesting because on paper I think the teams are fairly close.  That said the Rams have exceeded how their talent looked on paper this year.  Coming into this year I had the Cardinals as the worst team and the Rams as the second worst team in the NFL.   I was a little too low on the Cardinals and way too low on the Rams in hindsight.  All that said, when you look at their roster they have a bunch of low level starters on it.  So while I would bet on the Rams straight up against the Commanders I do view it as a winnable game.

 

I'd just go deep.  Stafford still has his arm strength.  They got decent receivers.  No team is worse than ours at stopping the deep ball.

51 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell we beat the Rams, in LA. I worry about the Cowboys more—mostly because they’ll be resting starters, most likely, and rivalry games like that go awry all the time. The Jets is a winnable game, depending how Wilson plays. If he shows like last week, we’ll get killed.

 

Not to jinx it but that's how it feels to me, too.

 

Zach Wilson is hot and cold but more cold than hot.  I can see Rivera really really really really wanting to have his last game as a coach ending up as a win.   So I think that's the only game this season he won't half ass the coaching.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

The Rams game is interesting because on paper I think the teams are fairly close.  That said the Rams have exceeded how their talent looked on paper this year.  Coming into this year I had the Cardinals as the worst team and the Rams as the second worst team in the NFL.   I was a little too low on the Cardinals and way too low on the Rams in hindsight.  All that said, when you look at their roster they have a bunch of low level starters on it.  So while I would bet on the Rams straight up against the Commanders I do view it as a winnable game.

 

Rams have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  All Stafford has to do is feed his receivers the ball, and the game will be over before Halftime.  This secondary is not stopping those receivers, and Aaron Donald will have a field day against our OL.  The Rams game has 35-17 written all over it.  I'm going to be in the house for this one on Sunday.  I'm only looking forward to my trip to LA, and my first time at SoFi Stadium.  I'm excited to finally watch a game at a gem of an NFL stadium.  The Jets game is the one that worries me.  I agree that the Jets O is really bad, but they did show something in that win against the Texans last Sunday, and Wilson had his best day as a pro against a quality team.  If that Zach Wilson shows up against us, the Jets won't have any issues beating us.  Their D will kill this OL.

Edited by samy316
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

You know Ron will end the tenure with the ultimate **** You by winning at least 2 games and we end up drafting near our usual spot.  The top players won’t be available to us.

Maybe it would be a blessing in disguise. It will stop all this qb talk and we can draft a linemen or Bowers.

The more I think about it the more I want us to win instead of tanking. All the best qbs off the board and build around Howell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, dunfer said:

 

Its dumb to pick a qb so high for a competition. Either you think you need one or you dont

That's working under the assumption that you either know or don't know, We're in the middle.

 

The Chiefs, Bengals, ravens and dolphins are examples of team who do.know and yes it would be incredibly stupid for them to draft a quarterback that high for competition. 

 

The falcons, patriots and probably the steelers are examples of teams who are pretty certain they need a quarterback so they would draft one that high to groom for the future.

 

We're in limbo, we know we got something but we don't yet know for sure what that is.

There's hope but Howell has not yet established himself as a high end franchise quarterback and is not likely to by the end of this year especially with the defenses he's going to be up against. 

 

If we have an opportunity to draft a blue chip prospect using only one draft pick it would be negligent not to do so for 2 reasons.

 

One, it's unquestionably the most important position in the game and we've needed an elite one for a long time and there's very little reason not to use extra resources to attempt to acquire one when those resources don't cripple you.

 

2, Sam has no leverage, he has no choice but to come in next year and work as hard as he can to be the best quarterback possible or we can leave him on the bench to rot for two years.

 

I like Sam and hope he has a bright future but the bottom line is using a high pick on a quarterback next year and having Sam work out is a good problem, not using a high pick and having Sam fail is a bad one and one we may not have the ability to correct for a long time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

Rams have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  All Stafford has to do is feed his receivers the ball, and the game will be over before Halftime.  This secondary is not stopping those receivers, and Aaron Donald will have a field day against our OL.  The Rams game has 35-17 written all over it.  I'm going to be in the house for this one on Sunday.  I'm only looking forward to my trip to LA, and my first time at SoFi Stadium.  I'm excited to finally watch a game at a gem of an NFL stadium.  The Jets game is the one that worries me.  I agree that the Jets O is really bad, but they did show something in that win against the Texans last Sunday, and Wilson had his best day as a pro against a quality team.  If that Zach Wilson shows up against us, the Jets won't have any issues beating us.  Their D will kill this OL.

I'll be at this game as well. Flying in Friday. I bought these tickets in August now this game has become a secondary stop and just gonna enjoy my trip in LA with my cousin. First time at SOFI as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

 

2, Sam has no leverage, he has no choice but to come in next year and work as hard as he can to be the best quarterback possible or we can leave him on the bench to rot for two years.

 

If we invest in a top tier QB we will have to play him for a whole year if not longer, your not going to sit him if he struggles. The issue then becomes the fact that we still dont know what we have in Sam until he also gets a full year with a competent coach and players surrounding him. If Howell was an established QB we would know what we have, but at this point we really dont. Its not a good spot to determine if he can truly be the guy going forward if we end up with a high first rounder QB. Would be better off with a Favre type toward the end of his career who you know what you have and are bringing in a top tier rookie to sit for a couple of years until the established guy retires. We dont have that luxury if you truly want to evaluate Howell. Its a weird dynamic in my mind. You have to commit to one or the other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

If we invest in a top tier QB we will have to play him for a whole year if not longer, your not going to sit him if he struggles. The issue then becomes the fact that we still dont know what we have in Sam until he also gets a full year with a competent coach and players surrounding him. If Howell was an established QB we would know what we have, but at this point we really dont. Its not a good spot to determine if he can truly be the guy going forward if we end up with a high first rounder QB. Would be better off with a Favre type toward the end of his career who you know what you have and are bringing in a top tier rookie to sit for a couple of years until the established guy retires. We dont have that luxury if you truly want to evaluate Howell. Its a weird dynamic in my mind. You have to commit to one or the other.

 

I don't think you read my post thoroughly. 

 

I said sit the rookie and play Sam next year, that's very doable there's no reason we can't sit a quarterback for a year to learn no matter how blue chip he is.

 

The other scenario was simply to point out that we don't have to worry about Sam holding out and a trade demand is unlikely because he has two years left on his contract, isn't an established franchise quarterback and we have a hell of backup plan so we literally have all the leverage.

 

Plus Sam seems like one of those guys who'll do the team first, work his ass off to accomplish his goals thing anyway and not the leverage thing even though he doesn't have any.

Edited by redskinss
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

I dont like the "draft a QB and let them compete". There is never a true "competition" you comit to one QB and pour everything into that QB. You tailor your game plan to his strengths. There just isn't enough reps for a true competition and adjusting schemes between two isn't a solution. If the 1st guy doesn't work out then fine move on but I don't think drafting a QB to compete with Sam will work. If we draft a QB high then put everything into him and trade Sam, Howell is too good to sit and wait for a year or more as a backup.

 

I think you're misunderstanding my post. I said if you draft a guy in the top 5, you still commit to Sam to start in 2024 - the only way he wouldn't is if the rookie blows him away in training camp despite Sam being made the starter.

 

2024 will be about seeing what we have in Sam regardless of whether the guy behind him is a top 5 pick or a day 3 guy.

 

QB is something you have to get right. You take as many swings as you can until you have The Guy. If there remains uncertainty about Sam's abilities (not saying it's a bad thing or Sam's fault) and you have the chance at 3 overall to bring in a prospect you think could be elite, you do it. But that doesn't mean you have to pick between the two guys right away, and in fact it would be unwise to do so.

 

35 games started with Sam including 17 with the new staff & better OL will tell you what you have in him. A year of backup work will tell you whether the new guy can hack it at the NFL level - unless you're Ron and you have your eyes glued shut on the practice field.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

A bunch of coaches have said (including Gibbs, Shanny) that you typically know if your newly drafted Qb is going to be good or not within weeks of having them in the building.

 

I am not really convinced Sam is a mystery as to diciphering upside.  I think Sam is going to be a good QB.  Some metrics don't back that.  But I do think with a better supporting cast and coaching he will fulfill the reputation of being good.  In that Derek Carr (when he was good) and Kirk range of QB.  Some would say that's optimistic because Sam hasn't cemented himself as a good QB, yet.  But I'll take the leap that he has a good chance of good.

 

Some seem to think there is no way to know if Sam isn't elite or not.  While I agree its impossible to know for certain.  I think there is a good chance you can deduce based on what we've seen whether Sam screams elite.  I recall for example Alex Smith said from the jump he could see just in practice alone that Mahomes has elite tools. 

 

I am in the same place on Sam Howell that you are at.  I think his most likely outcome is ends up being a Derek Carr type QB.  Capable of putting together good seasons and a top 20 QB most seasons, but once he is not on a rookie contract, hard to win at a high level.  I think Howell is biggest limiting trait that likely defines his ceiling is his pocket awareness.  It wasn't good at UNC and it hasn't been good here.  I don't think with more snaps he'll get better at it but eventually you get diminishing returns and will stop improving.  I don't think Sam has hit his ceiling yet, I think he will likely develop into a good QB and if we end up at 4 and Williams, Maye, and Daniels are off the board drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and upgrading the O-Line would probably really help him for next season.  But I would definietely draft Williams or Maye and probably Daniels though I am less certain of that one.

  • Thumb up 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

I am in the same place on Sam Howell that you are at.  I think his most likely outcome is ends up being a Derek Carr type QB.  Capable of putting together good seasons and a top 20 QB most seasons, but once he is not on a rookie contract, hard to win at a high level.  I think Howell is biggest limiting trait that likely defines his ceiling is his pocket awareness.  It wasn't good at UNC and it hasn't been good here.  I don't think with more snaps he'll get better at it but eventually you get diminishing returns and will stop improving.  I don't think Sam has hit his ceiling yet, I think he will likely develop into a good QB and if we end up at 4 and Williams, Maye, and Daniels are off the board drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and upgrading the O-Line would probably really help him for next season.  But I would definietely draft Williams or Maye and probably Daniels though I am less certain of that one.

 

Agree with all of that,

 

The 2 years versus 5 years dynamic with a rookie QB IMO is a sneaky overhang to all of this.  While the Howell era feels like its just getting started, he's about to be closer to the end of the run of his rookie deal then the beginning.

 

If Sam had Josh Allen type of insane raw skills, I'd get the thought of lets see if he's elite with more weapons, etc.   Sam doesn't have the ideal size for a QB.  He has nice mobility but he isn't fast.  Among other things.  There is nothing that screams about him that makes you think, wow, this dude if it all comes together will be elite.  I am not saying its not possible. But the odds clearly don't favor it. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point, I'm willing to concede that I'm not qualified to say what the Commanders should do at QB, and that I'll have to trust the next GM to make that call.

 

Knowing how Ron works, it'll probably be academic anyway. You just know he'll get that spoiler win at the end of the season that boots us out of the top 5.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, djpapeleta360 said:

Maybe it would be a blessing in disguise. It will stop all this qb talk and we can draft a linemen or Bowers.

The more I think about it the more I want us to win instead of tanking. All the best qbs off the board and build around Howell.

Whatever the case I want Sam to light it up even if he is running for his life. lose 45/40 just make it hard on whoever is picking. I want the QB's on the board because they have the highest value not because you have to take them. Build the team the best way you feel. So many ways to do it.  Hope they make the right decisions and not listen to the outside noise of who we have to take.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As far as tools specifically go IMO Caleb's off platform mobilty is insane, better than Trevor.  His arm strength is as good IMO.    Drake's mobility and arm strength sort of remind me of Trevor on superficial watching.  But as I told @KDawg I'll watch deeper.  My mind might change.   Most love Drake.  I noticed @KDawg not so much.  I am not saying he's wrong.  The opposite, I respect him enough to watch closer and decide for myself.

 

 

 

I spent a lot of time on the draft thread that year.  Very few were pounding the table for Trey Lance.   The dude was raw as heck.  That wasn't a secret.  He was billed as boom-bust.  He had a few fans, that's it.  But that was far from a consensus take on that draft thread

 

 

I was actively rooting for Haskins to be taken before our pick, that's how much i didn't want him.  And I wasn't alone on that.

 

 

Also not a consensus take.  there are a zillion opinions on the draft thread.  Heck I recall two people loving Kyle Trask.  So what?  You get 100 people to give opinions, and you will hear everything.  But I don't recall a consensus that we really need Trubisky take on that thread.

 

But anyway even if all of this was true.  So what?  The case you'd be making is you wouldn't want Extremskins board posters to pick your QB.  Heck that's sort of my point.  Some here believe they can call it now.  Sam is the dude.  These others guys are not better.  Case closed.   I want a professional to make the call.  I am not reassured because name the poster here tells me they've seen enough that Howell is elite or don't believe the hype on name that QB because they got a better read on the situation.

 

 

We've traveled that road so many times.  Don't go with the top 5 type.   We've take some first rounders but sans RG3 none of them were taken high in the first and all were overdrafted.  

 

We've not played in the Tiffany's aisle.  Trying to JC Pennys the position in the draft isn't a new ride for us.  That's been most of the ride.  

 

Is Howell the dude where they strike gold?  Maybe.  I suspect we hit silver with him.  Is that good enough for me.  In theory yes.  But I am not scared of taking a QB top 5.  And a minimum I think its foolish to not even consider this.

 

 

I've read that Minny will try to keep him and he likes it there.  So there is at least one conflicting report on it

 

1. I wonder if he's remembering me, but I think my take was probably a stronger version of yours with Lance which was: great tools, worth the risk, but he was the essence of a high ceiling, low floor dart throw, very high in the draft. I was willing to do that with Lance, most wouldn't and few on this board would or did from what I remember. 

 

2. On Haskins, I think the board had two thoughts:

#1 Please for the love of god don't trade up for Danny Nickels.

#2 Don't like Haskins either, but at least we didn't trade up (I know that was my thought)

 

3. Trubisky is going back really, really far but my memory of Trubisky is the same of my memory of Bortles and Gabbert. Nobody had a clue why he was going that high other than physical tools. People kept bringing up the Parcells take on a QB needing enough starts to merit being a prospect and Trubisky violating that by a ton of starts (he had like part of 1 season if memory serves). I can't recall anyone that loved Trubisky. I was worried about Watson's arm, but liked him before the velocity test (something I no longer care at all about post-Watson), and I liked Mahomes, though I didn't know enough. I dont remember any trubisky fans at all. Maybe he's thinking of 2 or 3 years ago when some people supported going after him in FA or trade as a cheap alternative to the ---- options we had in house? I was against that, needless to say. 

 

None of those anecdotes really make sense to me. Also thank you for putting the day 3 1 QB a decade bull---- in the wood chipper. The degree to which people are willing to pretend there is a "plan" in pretending you have any liklihood at all of hitting on day 3 guys is beyond infuriating. Nobody remembers the dozen plus QB's a year taken between the end of round 2 and via Undrafted Free Agent clearance signings that bust, so the vividness bias of a Kurt Warner here, a Tom Brady there, a Kirk Cousins here, a Dak Prescott there make people think this is something reasonably easy to do. It is not. For every Dak, there are dozens upon dozens of Conor Cooks, and Gibran Hamdan's, busting horribly, Chris Hakel-arama's. The hit rate after round 1 is putrid, particularly in terms of guys that are Final Four caliber teams. 

  • Like 2
  • Thumb up 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

None of those anecdotes really make sense to me. Also thank you for putting the day 3 1 QB a decade bull---- in the wood chipper. The degree to which people are willing to pretend there is a "plan" in pretending you have any liklihood at all of hitting on day 3 guys is beyond infuriating. Nobody remembers the dozen plus QB's a year taken between the end of round 2 and via Undrafted Free Agent clearance signings that bust, so the vividness bias of a Kurt Warner here, a Tom Brady there, a Kirk Cousins here, a Dak Prescott there make people think this is something reasonably easy to do. It is not. For every Dak, there are dozens upon dozens of Conor Cooks, and Gibran Hamdan's, busting horribly, Chris Hakel-arama's. The hit rate after round 1 is putrid, particularly in terms of guys that are Final Four caliber teams. 

 

Yep.

 

Guys like Todd Husak, Jordan Palmer and the slew of others get forgotten because they are forgettable.  I seriously doubt if you surrounded Todd Husak with weapons he would be playing like Brock Purdy.   Purdy is a unicorn.  That's not a debatable point.  The facts bear that out.

 

If someone wants to argue that if we keep taking a Chris Hakel, Cory Conklin, Nat Sudfeld on and on every year within 15 years or so we might nail it.  I can ride with that.  But the idea of hey let the Bears take Caleb Williams and we will instead take Devin Leary and surround him with weapons and lets see who comes out on top -- its silly.

 

The other one that's silly IMO is arguing all the drafts for QBs are apples to apples.  If people want to argue that there are no guarantees and a ballyhooed QB might fail -- yes, that's true.  But its talked about to death this draft versus another draft as to position strength at EVERY position let alone just QB.  It's also not a debatable point.   

 

if i am at name this random city on this random street and i want to eat at a good restaurant, I'll take the best one I can find.  That doesn't mind that the restaurant is equivalent to the best I can find in Manhattan.   And the idea that I went to the best restaurant I can find that day in that context, doesn't mean that I thought it was the eqiuivalent of name that Michelin star restaurant.

 

So the idea that the Titans for example took Mariota high doesn't mean they thought at the time he was the next Andrew Luck.  it means they needed a QB, they are picking high in the draft, lets just take the best one available and hope for the best.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

I am in the same place on Sam Howell that you are at.  I think his most likely outcome is ends up being a Derek Carr type QB.  Capable of putting together good seasons and a top 20 QB most seasons, but once he is not on a rookie contract, hard to win at a high level.  I think Howell is biggest limiting trait that likely defines his ceiling is his pocket awareness.  It wasn't good at UNC and it hasn't been good here.  I don't think with more snaps he'll get better at it but eventually you get diminishing returns and will stop improving.  I don't think Sam has hit his ceiling yet, I think he will likely develop into a good QB and if we end up at 4 and Williams, Maye, and Daniels are off the board drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and upgrading the O-Line would probably really help him for next season.  But I would definietely draft Williams or Maye and probably Daniels though I am less certain of that one.

 

 

So one of the measurements I started using on Twitter to grade and distinguish QBs is what I'm calling the WOW moments in college. People were hyping Daniels and comparing his numbes to Burrow and I was quick to correct them and say, no Burrow set the college world on fire and had a lot more WOW moments passing the ball. And I was told to restrict it to Burrow's first 12 games because Daniels had only played 12 as well.

 

Burrow had 1-6, 3-5, 2-4, and 4-3 TD games. That's 10 games and 41 TDs, kinda big time. (4.1 TDS / game when he's on) (He also has 3 rushing TDs)

Daniels had 1-6, 1-5, 3-4, 4-3 TD games. Thats 35 TDs in 9 games, not on the same level as Burrow.  (3.8 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

 

Maye's two years are 

Maye22 0-6, 3-5, 1-4, 3-3, TD games. That's 28 TDs in 7 games by Maye. (4 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

Maye23 0-6, 0-5, 2-4, 1-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs 3 games by Maye. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 9 rushing TDs)

 

Looking at Howell's last two years are not nearly that impressive. 

Howell20 had 1-6, 0-5, 1-4, 4-3 TD games. That's 22 TDs in 6 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Howell21 had 0-6, 1-5, 0-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs in 3 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 10 rushing TDs)

 

And just for fun (kinda boring and shows why he was Mr. Irrelivent)

Purdy18 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Purdy19 had 0-6, 1-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 15 TDs in 4 games (3.75 / game when he's on) (He also has 8 rushing TDs)

Purdy20 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 9 TDs in 3 games. (3.00 / game when he's on) (He also has 4 rushing TDs)

Purdy21 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 1 rushing TDs)

 

So if I were going by just the draft reports I would probably take Howell behind these guys and not think twice about it. But now that we have Howell in the building and know things about his character and humility and the fact that he can lead an offense in the NFL and that he has the work ethic that matters and the durability so much more about him, that matters. I have questions about Daniels size.

 

But the wole Brock Purdy being an MVP and building around Sam Howell is an active debate on Twitter and its got people from Kurt Warner and Cam Newton to joe schmoes talking about who is worthy to be called a franchise QB. I think the draft process is too built around the player himself and not around the player fitting into the system. I think its great to get a player who can "make all the throws" and has the athleticism. but it doesn't mean didly if you don't have a LT and guys who can catch. and a defense who can hold the lead. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...