2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Disclaimer for anyone else reading this - it is absolutely untrue. VOR keeps posting it, I am sicking of pointing out that it is wrong and him ignoring it. At this point, he clearly just wants to post something false.

 

Realistic best case is Dallas goes into that game knowing they would need the Giants to beat Philly for their game with us to matter The same scenario that happened last year and which we saw led to them sleepwalking through the game because they knew there was no real chance of that happening.

 

But for even that scenario to transpire, Dallas needs to beat Buffalo, Miami and Detroit three games in a row, two of which are on the road. Which anyone with any sense would not call "almost certain."

Sorry, I missed your posts.  

 

But hang on, I'm not sure I agree.  

 

Dallas is actually LEADING the division right now at 10-3.  They currently own the tiebreaker over Philly.

 

Last 4 for Dallas:

@Bills

@Dolphins

Lions

Commanders

 

Last 4 for Philly:

@Seahawks

Giants

@Cardinals

Giants

 

I think the only game on Dallas' schedule they won't be favored to win is @Dolphins.   I also think the Eagles are reeling a bit.

 

I could absolutely see both of them going 2-1 in their next 3 and then ending up with the same record going into the final game. The Eagles do have 2 West Coast trips, and that's not terribly easy.  

 

I could also see both of them going 3-0 the next three.  Dallas' path is harder.  But the Bills are imminently beatable.  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet, and the Lions game is at home. And I'm in the minority, but I am not as enamored with the Lions as a lot of folks.    

 

Best case, both teams have the same record entering the final game.  Which might not be as likely as the Eagles having a game lead just due to schedule down the stretch, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility.  

 

Dallas just needs to keep winning.  If they keep winning, I think Philly will also, so the game with us will have meaning.  

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Sorry, I missed your posts.  

 

But hang on, I'm not sure I agree.  

 

Dallas is actually LEADING the division right now at 10-3.  They currently own the tiebreaker over Philly.

 

Last 4 for Dallas:

@Bills

@Dolphins

Lions

Commanders

 

Last 4 for Philly:

@Seahawks

Giants

@Cardinals

Giants

 

I think the only game on Dallas' schedule they won't be favored to win is @Dolphins.   I also think the Eagles are reeling a bit.

 

I could absolutely see both of them going 2-1 in their next 3 and then ending up with the same record going into the final game. The Eagles do have 2 West Coast trips, and that's not terribly easy.  

 

I could also see both of them going 3-0 the next three.  Dallas' path is harder.  But the Bills are imminently beatable.  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet, and the Lions game is at home. And I'm in the minority, but I am not as enamored with the Lions as a lot of folks.    

 

Best case, both teams have the same record entering the final game.  Which might not be as likely as the Eagles having a game lead just due to schedule down the stretch, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility.  

 

Dallas just needs to keep winning.  If they keep winning, I think Philly will also, so the game with us will have meaning.  

If they finished tied, Philly wins the division. 

 

And Dallas may be favored in all those games, but the odds of winning all three are probably like 25%. Philly winning all three of theirs is more like 90%+.

[Commander202]

I’m locked in as Caleb  Williams being the pick . It’s destiny trying to bless us.

[KDawg]

Just now, Commander202 said:

I’m locked in as Caleb  Williams being the pick . It’s destiny trying to bless us.

Being who’s pick?

 

Ours? 
 

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

9 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Sorry, I missed your posts.  

 

But hang on, I'm not sure I agree. 

No, he’s right. If they both win out, then Philly will win the division by virtue of like the 4th tie breaker (conference record).

[FootballZombie]

12 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Last 4 for Dallas:

@Bills

@Dolphins

Lions

Commanders

 

Last 4 for Philly:

@Seahawks

Giants

@Cardinals

Giants

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

14 minutes ago, Commander202 said:

I’m locked in as Caleb  Williams being the pick . It’s destiny trying to bless us.

 

So many have written it off at this point because it seems so unlikely. And really, it is. But we'd have to get to the #2 pick and the Bears would have to be willing to take Harrison, Jr. at #1, and that assumes they're all-in on Fields.

 

If Caleb Williams was even remotely in the conversation for our R1 pick, I do think most on here would be 95% in favor of drafting him, even with whatever is his perceived baggage.

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think with Sam the question is all about his upside. 

 

If the dude was 6 '4.  Ot if he ran 4.5.  Or if he had a Josh Allen type rifle.  Or Joe Burrow type of college senior season with his level of accuracy.  Then there would be no discussion.  it would be he's shown enough flashes so lets be patient and see what we can build around him.  Heck if we didn't pick top 5, no discussion either because there would be no apples to apples debate.  In a vaccum, i am all for riding this with Howell. 

 

Sam is a baller.  He's tough.  He can make some wicked throws.  He has a good arm.  He has good mobility.  I think he has a good shot to be a good QB.  Question is do we think he's potentially great?  And if not is a Qb in this draft at their pick potentially great?  Simple as that.

 

I got little doubt that if we add some weapons and beef up the O line, Sam would cement himself as a good QB.  But I struggle with great.  I don't see anything that he's great at.  And I am not one of the people on this thread who believes their QB acumen can rival great scouts.  Even though I've nailed some good ones at the QB spot.  Got some wrong, too.   But I don't live and die with my own opinion on arguably the hardest position to scout in all of sports. 

 

So yeah i would trust a new GM to dicipher Sam in a greater way (pun intended) than we can.   Not because good GMs get them all correct.  But they are paid to sweat this decision.  We are not.  Whether i am right or wrong on Howell and or Daniels, it won't effect my life at all.  But it will likely define the new GM's tenure.  So i am hoping that added pressure at a minimum makes that GM do an exhaustive digestion of this scenario.

 

If Josh out of left field hires Bruce Allen Jr., then I'll change my mind.  But so far Josh's decisions has fit his profile to a tee so I am not expecting some odd left field call at the GM spot. 

Would be nice to see Sam hit some deep shots to the WR's over these last 4 games, in fact, make it a priority. Take deep shots. I saw the stat where our WR's have zero plays over 40 yards this season when we had 10 such plays last season. Sam has missed on these throws a lot this year so it would be nice to see him show that he can get the ball downfield. I know it takes good protection but there will be opportunities. Also, how bout some more quick slants while we're at it to maybe set up double moves? 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Would be nice to see Sam hit some deep shots to the WR's over these last 4 games, in fact, make it a priority. Take deep shots. I saw the stat where our WR's have zero plays over 40 yards this season when we had 10 such plays last season. Sam has missed on these throws a lot this year so it would be nice to see him show that he can get the ball downfield. I know it takes good protection but there will be opportunities. Also, how bout some more quick slants while we're at it to maybe set up double moves? 

 

Sam has a good test coming up.  Nothing would make me happier football wise than Sam just killing it against some top defenses.

 

By no means, is my preference to take a QB just to take a QB.   Sam has flashed enough for me.  But I don't think he's flashed so much greatness.  I don't think his tools scream greatness.    But IMO his tools and play scream good player.  And is good -- good enough for me?  Yes.  In a vaccum, yes. But this isn't a vaccum.

 

So if the GM doesn't think Sam's ceiling is "great".  And thinks another QB at their pick does scream "great".  Then take the QB.

 

But I do think the next 4 games are important in that mix.  

Edited December 12, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Sam has a good test coming up.  Nothing would make me happier football wise than Sam just killing it against some top defenses.

 

By no means, is my preference to take a QB just to take a QB.   Sam has flashed enough for me.  But I don't think he's flashed so much greatness.  I don't think his tools scream greatness.    But IMO his tools and play scream good player.  And is good -- good enough for me?  Yes.  In a vaccum, yes. But this isn't a vaccum.

 

So if the GM doesn't think Sam's ceiling is "great".  And thinks another QB at their pick does scream "great".  Then take the QB.

 

But I do think the next 4 games are important in that mix.  

Would love to see EB put that QB sprint bomb play in for Sam like Gibbs did for Rypien. I'll bet Sam would look good running that play and we have multiple WR's with the speed to get open deep.

[MartinC]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Anyone worried about Ron after some "self scouting"?

 

 

 

You wait until the season is dead to self scout?? What if the outcome of that self scouting is 

 

1. The GM really screwed me by not addressing the O’line

2. Geez the defensive coaching has been bad the HC really should have done something about that like ages ago.

3. Some of the spacing on our pass concepts is awful - I really should have been talking to the OC about that weeks ago.

4. That slow shotgun sweep never seems to work. Memo to stop calling that. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

So many have written it off at this point because it seems so unlikely. And really, it is. But we'd have to get to the #2 pick and the Bears would have to be willing to take Harrison, Jr. at #1, and that assumes they're all-in on Fields.

 

If Caleb Williams was even remotely in the conversation for our R1 pick, I do think most on here would be 95% in favor of drafting him, even with whatever is his perceived baggage.

If we end up in the top 5 he is certainly in the conversation. Trading up from 4 to 1 or 2 isnt a huge leap. If Chicago is staying pit with Fields it actually makes a ton of sense for them to trade down again this year. If our new GM/Coach want Williams we are in a perfect position to go up and get him.

[Silvernon]

The top 2 teams aren't trading their picks. They're going QB. 

 

It cost a couple legs and an arm to trade up to #2 last time, so let's just not. 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Silvernon said:

The top 2 teams aren't trading their picks. They're going QB. 

 

It cost a couple legs and an arm to trade up to #2 last time, so let's just not. 

I disagree. Chicago only has 6 picks in this draft. Moving down to 4 and getting 2 extra high picks out of it makes a ton of sense for them. They are guaranteed the top WR or tackle in the draft there. 

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Dallas is actually LEADING the division right now at 10-3.  They currently own the tiebreaker over Philly.

 

Eagles own the division tiebreaker over Dallas, if they win out they win the division. SF has the #1 seed tiebreaker over Philly and Dallas. Last night wasn't a must win game for the Eagles but was for Dallas. Cowboys still need a Philly loss and they need to win out. 

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. Chicago only has 6 picks in this draft. Moving down to 4 and getting 2 extra high picks out of it makes a ton of sense for them. They are guaranteed the top WR or tackle in the draft there. 

I agree, I think the Bears will trade back with one of their two high draft picks but I think it will be the worst of the two. I'm also not convinced they draft QB at #1 overall and I agree they could trade out of #1 overall with a team like the NYG or even Wash to move back just a a couple or few spots. 

22 minutes ago, MartinC said:

You wait until the season is dead to self scout?? What if the outcome of that self scouting is 

 

1. The GM really screwed me by not addressing the O’line

2. Geez the defensive coaching has been bad the HC really should have done something about that like ages ago.

3. Some of the spacing on our pass concepts is awful - I really should have been talking to the OC about that weeks ago.

4. That slow shotgun sweep never seems to work. Memo to stop calling that. 

5). Maybe running shotgun on 4th and goal from the one isn't the best way to run a QB sneak.

[KDawg]

On 12/8/2023 at 6:52 PM, Rufus T Firefly said:

I'm nowhere near as high on Howell as much of this board (I'm not saying "most" or a "majority" so KDawg doesn't fly into one of his trademark fits of rage), but I think his trade value would be a good deal higher than you think. 

 

While yes, you can hear hyperbole about him, you can listen to commentators on our national broadcasts or talk radio or ESPN or wherever and plenty of people talk pretty glowingly about him. Pretty much everyone thinks he's at least a good QB. Most everyone thinks he can still develop more. 

 

I don't think he'll be "great" or a franchise level guy, using some hard to define labels. That's why I'd be interested in taking someone else who I thought could reach that level. 

 

But there's only so many of those guys to go around and a lot of QBs get valued who aren't at that level. I think plenty of teams could potentially be interested. 

 

My first thought on an ask would be a 2 now and a conditional pick probably in 2026. Like a 7th if he does much of anything, maybe all the way up to a 2nd if he really excels and earns another contract. Something like that would be reasonable, imo. 

Trademark fits of rage

 

 

[kingdaddy]

You know what could be the worst case scenario, trading Howell and having the high drafted rookie be a bust while Sam goes on to be a star in the league for someone else. Just another thing the new GM will need to consider. This is one huge reason NOT to deal Sam in addition to all of the good things he's shown. 

[Commander Adama]

20 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

You know what could be the worst case scenario, trading Howell and having the high drafted rookie be a bust while Sam goes on to be a star in the league for someone else. Just another thing the new GM will need to consider. This is one huge reason NOT to deal Sam in addition to all of the good things he's shown. 

Exactly. Sam is very level-headed and seems to keep learning. If we get a good OC and HC he could be great. Look at what Kyle Shanahan did with RGIII. He developed the offense around what RGIII could do, and we won games. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

If we end up in the top 5 he is certainly in the conversation. Trading up from 4 to 1 or 2 isnt a huge leap. If Chicago is staying pit with Fields it actually makes a ton of sense for them to trade down again this year. If our new GM/Coach want Williams we are in a perfect position to go up and get him.

I think you underestimate how much you’d have to give up to go from #4 to #1

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I think you underestimate how much you’d have to give up to go from #4 to #1

No I dont. Its probably gonna cost you a 1st and 2nd this year and your 1st next year. But if that is what the new staff wants to do than they should be allowed to do it. And 4 has a ton more value to Chicago than 5 or higher does.

[Hooper]

There are plenty of mocks who have Caleb slipping to us or even past us.

 

A lot could change after the workouts, etc -- it always does.

 

 

[MrJL]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. Chicago only has 6 picks in this draft. Moving down to 4 and getting 2 extra high picks out of it makes a ton of sense for them. They are guaranteed the top WR or tackle in the draft there. 

 

their own current pick is at seven.  They can easily flip that for a could picks

26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

No I dont. Its probably gonna cost you a 1st and 2nd this year and your 1st next year. But if that is what the new staff wants to do than they should be allowed to do it. And 4 has a ton more value to Chicago than 5 or higher does.

 

going from 5 to 2 cost us THREE first round draft picks and a second

[Warhead36]

Giants and Titans both winning…

[MrJL]

why are there two Monday Night games?

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

their own current pick is at seven.  They can easily flip that for a could picks

 

going from 5 to 2 cost us THREE first round draft picks and a second

Its a moot point really. 4 is far more valuable than 5. I dont see us trading up. I was simply stating IF the new staff wants to do it, it is easily attainable. 

Man. Love looks terrible in this game.