2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

I think there are a lot of great points on both sides of the QB debate…

 

And I know what I’m going to say isn’t going to make a single lick of a difference…

 

But…

 

We have absolutely no idea where we are picking yet. We don’t know who the GM or head coach are. And we don’t know anything about FA and even who is all declaring for the draft aside from seniors and those who have already announced.

 

We are all passionate, but it’s a little early to be too passionate on this in any direction. 
 

Let it play out. 
 

Continue to discuss, that’s what we’re here for… but keep in mind most folks opinions are going to change 29 times before we get to the point decisions are made because more facts will fill out.

 

No doubt.  This is purely based on what's happening at this giving time.

 

But it is a philosophy that a new GM should consider everything versus some things should be completely off the table.  That's the heart in my view of this debate.  I suspect based on other local and national observers this isn't going to be much of a debate in real life.    The idea that some things are completely off the table specific to QB feels like a big time outlier take right now.

 

Having said that if they don't pick top 5 I agree it likely becomes a moot discussion.

 

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

On the one hand, posters like you and I have been debating what a GM should or should not be doing for close to or more then 20 years here, and truly unfathomable how many times many felt they could make better individual micro and maybe even macro decisions then GMs or overall front office decisions over the years, and probably right about it.

 

 

 

Agree.  But matching wits versus Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen I doubt will be apples to apples to matching our football acumen with name that dude who is considered among the top scouts in the country like Adam Peters.

 

But if your point is you still feel confident that your take on the QBs can match the acumen of the next GM.  Cool.  For me, unless its a shock hire I am not expecting that.

 

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

But that's still a lot of ifs seeing that translate to the NFL.  We should be running our race and building units to counter our divisional rivals, not picking prospects because we're afraid they might get them instead. 

 

Strawman argument.  Did I say pick a QB i don't want because the Giants will get him?

 

I said it brings home the mistake in a much bigger way if it is a mistake.   It brings an added layer of drama for the decision.  That will likely matter to some people more if they make a mistake.

 

That goes both ways by the way.  If they traded Howell to NY, they'd better be right in a deeper way than if they traded him elsewhere.  There is a reason why some teams don't even want to trade their QB in the same conference let alone same division.  It does matter how good or not our division foes are.  

Edited December 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

56 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's what we need to happen:

Commanders: Lose Out

Giants: Win 1 against Packers, Saints, Eagles, Rams, Eagles

Cardinals: Win 1 against 49ers, Bears, Eagles, Seahawks

Patriots: Win 2 against Chiefs, Broncos, Bills, Jets

Titans: Win 1 more against Texans, Seahawks, Texans, Jaguars

Bears: Win 1 against Browns, Falcons, Cardinals, Packers

 

This will get us to the #2 pick. I think any of the above NOT happening locks us out of #2 completely. I have run a ton of scenarios and the Win % knocks us out of a lot of tie-breakers with the exception of Arizona. Their SOS is quite high, so we have the tie-break over them in every scenario I have run. 

 

The Bears SOS is really bad, so they'd have a tie-breaker over us, but they have several winnable games left and I assume they'll get one. 

Cards and Bears have been playing much better football recently. A shame they have to play each other so only one can get a win. I could actually see the Bears winning 2 or even more of their final 4. So best bet would be, Bears beat some combo of Browns/Falcons/Packers but lose to the Cardinals.

 

Giants winning one is unlikely. Best hope is that the Eagles rest everyone in the finale, which they might because with their schedule and the way their defense is playing, coupled with the Cowboys being red hot, they might have the #5 seed locked in.

 

Titans will definitely win one more. They're not that bad and fight in most weeks.

 

Pats having to win TWO is tough. Don't see them having any chance the next three weeks. Jets in the finale is a coin flip but if the Pats have already lost the previous three, we might be better off with them losing to the Jets.

 

I think we have a chance at the 3rd pick. 4th still looks like the most likely though. But man 3rd would be sweet. One of the top 2 QBs or Harrison would be a huge prize.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

10 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think we have a chance at the 3rd pick. 4th still looks like the most likely though. But man 3rd would be sweet. One of the top 2 QBs or Harrison would be a huge prize.

For us to get the #2 pick, this would be the Top 10 as a result:

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16

2. Commanders: 4-13 (.543)

3. Cardinals: 4-13 (.567)

4. Patriots: 5-12 (.509)

5. Titans: 5-12 (.519)

6. Chargers: 5-12 (.533)

7. Giants: 5-12 (.540)

8. Bears: 6-11 (.464)

9. Raiders: 6-11 (.491)

10. Jets: 6-11 (.512)

 

Not only does this the only scenario where we can get to the #2 pick, it's also a best-of-best case scenario for trade-back partners.

 

Patriots (#4), Giants (#7), Raiders (#9) and maybe Titans (#5) would all likely be in play for #2 and Maye and all within the Top 10. And obviously the best of best case scenarios here would be to trade #2 to the Patriots for #4 their 2nd and a 2025 1st round pick. 

 

The top 3 would likely be:

1. Bears: Caleb Williams

2. Patriots: Drake Maye*

3. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison, Jr.

4. Commanders: _________

 

Double-trade downs are super rare. BUT there's a very very good chance the #2 pick would be traded well before draft day. So the chances of a draft-day trade from #4 would be be higher if we/other teams had a while to sit on the draft order. So you either get Fashanu at #4 ... OR ... the Raiders come calling and offer you #9, a 3rd and a 2025 1st.

 

You're taking yourself out of Fashanu territory unless you can trade back up with the Charger (you probably could, they have a lot of needs). 

Scenario 1:

4: Fashanu, OT Penn State ... add #36 from Pats and a 2025 1st

 

Scenario 2:

9: Latham, OT Alabama ... add #36 from Pats, #73 from Chargers, 2025 1st from Pats, 2025 1st from Chargers

 

Scenario 3:

6: Alt, OT Notre Dame ... add #36 from Pats, 2025 1st from Pats, 2025 1st from Raiders, lose #96 (and #73 from Raiders) to get back to #6 for Alt.

 

Super off the wall projections and assumption, but these things will become more realistic/into focus if we are able to somehow luck into the #2 pick.

 

Or we just draft Drake Maye at #2 lol

Edited December 11, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Warhead36]

I wouldn't overthink it and just take Harrison jr at #2 and terrorize defenses with a top notch passing attack.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I wouldn't overthink it and just take Harrison jr at #2 and terrorize defenses with a top notch passing attack.

 

Harrison at #2 would be criminal IMO. I get it. But if you have offers on the table to trade back to #4, and you could STILL get Harrison (or Fashanu) there, in addition to a 2nd and future 1st, you gotta take it. It's worth risking missing out on Harrison and having Fashanu as "consolation" to add that sort of draft capital.

 

I'm sure the tankathon projections will come out showing how likely/unlikely it is we end up at #2, this is all likely moot anyway. It's so hard to see us get there, but if we do, we HAVE to capitalize and either draft a franchise QB or get a haul of picks.

[Warhead36]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Harrison at #2 would be criminal IMO. I get it. But if you have offers on the table to trade back to #4, and you could STILL get Harrison (or Fashanu) there, in addition to a 2nd and future 1st, you gotta take it. It's worth risking missing out on Harrison and having Fashanu as "consolation" to add that sort of draft capital.

 

I'm sure the tankathon projections will come out showing how likely/unlikely it is we end up at #2, this is all likely moot anyway. It's so hard to see us get there, but if we do, we HAVE to capitalize and either draft a franchise QB or get a haul of picks.

I don't think we'd get a future 1st for moving down just two spots, but yeah if we did that much value would be hard to pass up. Would still guarantee us a top 3 QB or Harrison.

 

I think there will be opportunities to trade down to the 10 ish spot. Teams like the Falcons, Raiders, Saints, etc. are gonna wanna move up to secure franchise QBs.

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

#2: Should net us a ransom with Maye and Daniels on the board.

#3: Should still net us some great trade-back opps. with one of them still there

#4: Starts to become less predictable. 50/50 one of the Top 3 QBs is there, depending on whether Harrison is off the board or not.

#5: Should be able to get the Top OT on our board

#6-7: Should be able to get the #2 OT on our board, Bowers or Nabers

 

So if we want to maximize trade-down opportunities #2 and #3 are where we want to be. That's also possible at #4, but we'd likely need to move back out of range of a top OT and might choose to stand pat and take one there. #5-7 we are sort of hoping and praying Fashanu or Alt are still there, or we get a good offer from someone to move back a bit so they can come get a premier player, but IMO this becomes debatable as it takes us out of premier pick range.

 

If we end up at #2 I would say there's a a 75%+ chance we trade down. The other 25% is we draft a QB.

If we end up at #3, I would say there's a 50%+ chance we trade down, but also a 25% chance we draft a QB, and a 25% chance we take Harrison, Jr.

If we end up at #4 it gets tricky. Is Daniels there? Then there's a 25% chance we draft him, and a 30-40% chance we trade back. But if QBs go 1-2-3, then I think there's a 95%+ chance we stick at #4 and take Harrison, Jr. or Fashanu.

 

Can you tell I am bored?

 

I disagree with some of the conclusions but good breakdown. No way to know leanings until the new GM is hired.  So now its pure gut.  My takes.

 

#2:  80% chance they take a QB.  5% chance Harrison.  15% chance they trade down

#3.  40% chance QB.  40% chance Harrison.  20% chance they trade down

#4.  40% chance QB.  40% chance Harrison.  20% chance they trade down.  Depending on if Daniels or Harrison is there.

#5.  50% chance Fashanu or Alt.  50% trade down

#6   80% chance whichever drops between Fashanu or Alt

#7   50% Bowers or a few possibilites at WR not just Nabers, 50% trade down

Edited December 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I disagree with some of the conclusions but good breakdown. No way to know leanings until the new GM is hired.  So now its pure gut.  My takes.

 

Exactly, it's such a gut guess at this point. As you've mentioned, a proper FO will truly come along and take a look at everything, and if Drake Maye is their vision for this franchise then, you take him. If Jayden Daniels is, and he's at #4, you take him. I'm going to go with the FO regardless.

 

My gut generally speaks to what I think is the best way to build a team. If we had, say, Dwayne Haskins circa 2019/2020 I would be SO on board for QB given the quality of the options, I'd have picked that QB yesterday. But I do think we have seen quite a bit out of Howell to give him a year to prove himself. I get the contract issues come into play, he's going to need to be extended after 2024. And my point is you'll know by the end of 2024 IF you want to start down the path of extension talks. If there is any question about it, then you do NOT, you let him play out in 2025 while he competes with a 1st round pick next year.

 

I kind of see it unraveling like this:

1. Howell can be the guy, load up around him, add 2025 draft capital as good practice and preparation for a Plan B

2. Howell ends up not being the guy, we have draft capital in 2025 to be aggressive, plus 1 year of loaded picks and FA in 2024 to make sure whoever is drafted in 2025 can flourish.

3. Howell is TBD as the guy after 2024. Refer to point 2. If there's any doubt, QB is in play in 2025.

4. FO doesn't think Sam is the guy at all, QB is at play in 2024. But you'll need to be prudent in ensuring you maximize the FA cycle and remaining draft picks to give the new QB a chance to succeed, including trading Howell for whatever you can get to help armour the team around the new QB. Bring in a veteran FA QB to compete/provide guidance to the rookie, versus Howell who is still young and learning.

 

And if the FO thinks along the lines of 1-3, then I think you seriously consider bringing in a veteran QB ala Brissett (whether it's him or not, new FO/coaching staff will likely have their own "pet" backup QBs) over drafting a guy. You want a stable veteran presence to continue to guide and help Sam grow. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Darrell Green Fan]

25 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think we'd get a future 1st for moving down just two spots, but yeah if we did that much value would be hard to pass up. Would still guarantee us a top 3 QB or Harrison.

 

I think there will be opportunities to trade down to the 10 ish spot. Teams like the Falcons, Raiders, Saints, etc. are gonna wanna move up to secure franchise QBs.

I don't know the value of going from 2 to 4, I suspect you may be right.  But the Bears went from 1 to 9 and got a ton including a future 1st and a WR1 in addition to other picks.  

 

All this can change so quickly. The Commies win just one game, in a league where that is still very possible, and all of the plans we are discussing goes up in smoke. I expect them to pick 5-7 and come away with an anchor LT.  That would be disappointing as with a higher pick they can do so much more.  I am starting to warm to the idea of trading out of the pick if one of the QBs are there as long as the trade includes next year's first round pick. Then we can all hope and pray that the QB we passed on becomes another Bryce Young and we can watch that pick grow higher with each loss.

[The Consigliere]

We'll see how it goes. I think it's QB, Harrison, Fashanu or trade down, Bowers, Alt in that order depending upon where the pick falls between 2 and probably 9, higher probability of 3-7. 

 

I've heard a recent really good argument for why it shouldn't be Bowers beyond simply TE hit rate there, which more relates to FA Cap Cost (franchising a TE, and max salaries for TE's are significantly cheaper than for WR's, generally you can hit on generational TE's outside the blue chip zone (indeed every single HOF caliber TE drafted the past 20 years has been taken outside the blue chip zones, I don't think any of the blue chip guys even made the hall, starting with Shockey and KWII). There's more to it than that, but basically Harrison Jr makes more sense simply in terms of allocation of cap space and draft capital alone. Last year underlines all of this. The best TE long term in the league is on a 2nd round contract, all of the best TE's recently selected (past five years) has been day 2 or day 3 picks other than Hockenson and Pitts whose busy getting ruined by Atlanta along with Drake and Bijan. 

 

So while I love Bowers and want him, it would be wiser to take advantage of a class like last years where you can get 1 of the 3 studs in the 25-50 zone, and save a ton of money and cost control that way, rather than use top end draft capital. 

 

The good news, for now, and hopefully going forward, is that they continue to lose to keep themselves in the blue chip zone which appears to be about 5-6 players deep, and about 4 or 5 deep not including QB's. 

[Chris 44]

4 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I don't know the value of going from 2 to 4, I suspect you may be right.  But the Bears went from 1 to 9 and got a ton including a future 1st and a WR1 in addition to other picks.  

 

All this can change so quickly. The Commies win just one game, in a league where that is still very possible, and all of the plans we are discussing goes up in smoke. I expect them to pick 5-7 and come away with an anchor LT.  That would be disappointing as with a higher pick they can do so much more.  I am starting to warm to the idea of trading out of the pick if one of the QBs are there as long as the trade includes next year's first round pick. Then we can all hope and pray that the QB we passed on becomes another Bryce Young and we can watch that pick grow higher with each loss.

Your right about it changing quickly, between now and the draft things are going to change on the consensus top QB's and other top picks relative draft positions. Daniels was an after thought to most 6 weeks ago, now many projecting him 2nd after Maye. Going to be really interesting how things shake out. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

We'll see how it goes. I think it's QB, Harrison, Fashanu or trade down, Bowers, Alt in that order depending upon where the pick falls between 2 and probably 9, higher probability of 3-7. 

 

I've heard a recent really good argument for why it shouldn't be Bowers beyond simply TE hit rate there, which more relates to FA Cap Cost (franchising a TE, and max salaries for TE's are significantly cheaper than for WR's, generally you can hit on generational TE's outside the blue chip zone (indeed every single HOF caliber TE drafted the past 20 years has been taken outside the blue chip zones, I don't think any of the blue chip guys even made the hall, starting with Shockey and KWII). There's more to it than that, but basically Harrison Jr makes more sense simply in terms of allocation of cap space and draft capital alone. Last year underlines all of this. The best TE long term in the league is on a 2nd round contract, all of the best TE's recently selected (past five years) has been day 2 or day 3 picks other than Hockenson and Pitts whose busy getting ruined by Atlanta along with Drake and Bijan. 

 

So while I love Bowers and want him, it would be wiser to take advantage of a class like last years where you can get 1 of the 3 studs in the 25-50 zone, and save a ton of money and cost control that way, rather than use top end draft capital. 

 

The good news, for now, and hopefully going forward, is that they continue to lose to keep themselves in the blue chip zone which appears to be about 5-6 players deep, and about 4 or 5 deep not including QB's. 

I am still bitter than Ron did not take a TE with such a deep class last year.  Then we would not even be considering Bowers.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Exactly, it's such a gut guess at this point. As you've mentioned, a proper FO will truly come along and take a look at everything, and if Drake Maye is their vision for this franchise then, you take him. If Jayden Daniels is, and he's at #4, you take him. I'm going to go with the FO regardless.

 

My gut generally speaks to what I think is the best way to build a team. If we had, say, Dwayne Haskins circa 2019/2020 I would be SO on board for QB given the quality of the options, I'd have picked that QB yesterday. But I do think we have seen quite a bit out of Howell to give him a year to prove himself. I get the contract issues come into play, he's going to need to be extended after 2024. And my point is you'll know by the end of 2024 IF you want to start down the path of extension talks. If there is any question about it, then you do NOT, you let him play out in 2025 while he competes with a 1st round pick next year.

 

I kind of see it unraveling like this:

1. Howell can be the guy, load up around him, add 2025 draft capital as good practice and preparation for a Plan B

2. Howell ends up not being the guy, we have draft capital in 2025 to be aggressive, plus 1 year of loaded picks and FA in 2024 to make sure whoever is drafted in 2025 can flourish.

3. Howell is TBD as the guy after 2024. Refer to point 2. If there's any doubt, QB is in play in 2025.

4. FO doesn't think Sam is the guy at all, QB is at play in 2024. But you'll need to be prudent in ensuring you maximize the FA cycle and remaining draft picks to give the new QB a chance to succeed, including trading Howell for whatever you can get to help armour the team around the new QB. Bring in a veteran FA QB to compete/provide guidance to the rookie, versus Howell who is still young and learning.

 

And if the FO thinks along the lines of 1-3, then I think you seriously consider bringing in a veteran QB ala Brissett (whether it's him or not, new FO/coaching staff will likely have their own "pet" backup QBs) over drafting a guy. You want a stable veteran presence to continue to guide and help Sam grow. 

 

Some good thoughts there.  I agree their positions are good now matter what they do. 

 

I am doubting that they take a play it medium approach and punt this to 2025.    I am certainly not against building this team around Howell or doing it around a new QB.  But I think it makes more sense to make that call now.  Not in 2025. 

 

I know some here contend EVERY year is a good one for Qb in the draft.  But that's clearly not true.  Every now and then a QB emerged out of nowhere, that's true.  But there are certainly drafts that are better than others for QB.  Right now IMO in theory it looks like a great draft for QB in 2024 and a crap QB crop for 2025.  Ewers yuck IMO.  I think he'd go in the 2nd round in this draft.   Sanders is good, he'd probably be the third or 4th QB in this class though and he likely goes #1 and in turn out of reach for us. 

 

2 things that I am on another planet than what some think about the draft.  Not saying you are on the other side of either point.  Just explaining my point.

 

A.  Every draft is more or less the same at Qb ot close enough.

 

B.  If we want the top QB -- easy peasy -- the team who can make that pick wont take that QB and will generously give up that opportunity and will naturally cooperate with this team and our needs and happily trade the pick to us just because. 

 

IMO, we need a GM who has the balls to make this call now.  I never expect to get the top QB in any draft.  We never do.  Teams typically don't trade them away.  And I have no isn't it fun to dream about Ewers, Beck thoughts about that draft right now.  Yuck.  And i know a new QB could emerge.  But maybe one doesn't?   And how do we know that we'd be in position to take that QB?

 

The opportunity to take a QB without trading up is unusual and interesting.  Trading potentially more draft capital in 2025 to land a QB in an likely inferior draft for that position seems "meh" to me in theory.  And I grant its just theory.  But right now I'll run with the odds which are this draft is likely a better draft than 2025 for QB.  And we have a potential opportunity to take a QB without trading up -- when often the #3 QB isn't that hot of a prospect but this year in theory it is.

 

My point is it would feel like a missed opportunity to potentially punt an opportunity to take a QB without trading up (if we land in the top 5) for the opportunity to trade up in a draft that in theory looks weaker at that same spot.

 

So the gist for me is i'd want the GM to make that call.  Build around Howell.  Or build around a new QB.  I'd rather not just punt on the decision and assume that either way it will just work itself out in 2025.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So the gist for me is i'd want the GM to make that call.  Build around Howell.  Or build around a new QB.  I'd rather not just punt on the decision and assume that either way it will just work itself out in 2025.

 

Agree here. I think the caveat on my side is they wouldn't publicly or even intentionally "punt" to 2025. You'd make the call this year that you think Sam can be the guy or he can't. If it's black/white, and you don't think he can be, then you absolutely take the opportunity to draft a QB.

 

The truth is it is likely somewhere in the middle. The new FO can believe in Sam and then re-assess in 2024/2025. And if that's the case, having the draft capital to get aggressive becomes "Plan B" ... I think you take advantage of the trade-down to accumulate picks not because you think you'll need them for a QB in 2025, but because you can justify it in the name of team-building. If you trade from #2 to #4 and add a 2025 1st from, say, the Patriots ... that 1st rounder next year could be incredibly valuable to adding another OT, a premier WR, or a stud defender since Sam proved himself. If Sam doesn't, then that just becomes ammo to go get a QB.

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Agree here. I think the caveat on my side is they wouldn't publicly or even intentionally "punt" to 2025. You'd make the call this year that you think Sam can be the guy or he can't. If it's black/white, and you don't think he can be, then you absolutely take the opportunity to draft a QB.

 

The truth is it is likely somewhere in the middle. The new FO can believe in Sam and then re-assess in 2024/2025. And if that's the case, having the draft capital to get aggressive becomes "Plan B" ... I think you take advantage of the trade-down to accumulate picks not because you think you'll need them for a QB in 2025, but because you can justify it in the name of team-building. If you trade from #2 to #4 and add a 2025 1st from, say, the Patriots ... that 1st rounder next year could be incredibly valuable to adding another OT, a premier WR, or a stud defender since Sam proved himself. If Sam doesn't, then that just becomes ammo to go get a QB.

 

I think its a fascinating decision especially if the conclusion is similar to mine.

 

If you point a gun to my head on Howell right now, I'd say he's going to be albiet he isn't yet, in that Kirk-Derek Carr class.  I believe he has a high floor-medium ceiling.

 

If you follow my posting history on the QB thread, I've had Howell's back all year long.  And I've also hated (and still do) the idea of trading up for a QB in this draft.   I like Howell enough that the idea of trading the moon for another QB bugs me.

 

But now that they might pick from 2nd to 4th that changes the dynamic 100% for me.  Because there is a viable chance they can take a highly rated QB without trading up.  For this franchise that would be an unusual ride.

 

They had to trade up for RG3, and Campbell. They overdrafted Haskins and Ramsey.  So being in the drivers seat in theory for a QB would be wild.  Almost too good to be true.  So to @KDawg's point heck maybe it doesn't even happen and we pick later. 

 

But if we have this rare shot to take a ballyhooed QB without trading up, no way i am just ignoring that.  it feels crazy to do that.   And I am not even saying do it.  I am saying if I am the GM no way I am just ignoring this opportunity, i am going to dive hard into the QBs I could take and comparing them apples to apples to Howell.

 

The reasons why the decision to me has extra oomph to it are.

 

A.  You might have at a minimum a good QB in hand.  Are you discarding that ala Kirk Cousins?  What if he's successful and your new QB is a bust?  Ala Haskins-Kirk. 

 

B.  If the QB that you pass over becomes a stud -- especially considering all their built in hype, they'd have to wear that if Howell isn't comparable.  This wouldn't be a surprise like Herbert.  If Maye or Daniels ends up very good, that's not a shock the world development. 

 

C.  If your divison rival ends up with that stud then it amplifies your mistake even more.  

Edited December 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Darrell Green Fan]

10 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Agree here. I think the caveat on my side is they wouldn't publicly or even intentionally "punt" to 2025. You'd make the call this year that you think Sam can be the guy or he can't. If it's black/white, and you don't think he can be, then you absolutely take the opportunity to draft a QB.

 

The truth is it is likely somewhere in the middle. The new FO can believe in Sam and then re-assess in 2024/2025. And if that's the case, having the draft capital to get aggressive becomes "Plan B" ... I think you take advantage of the trade-down to accumulate picks not because you think you'll need them for a QB in 2025, but because you can justify it in the name of team-building. If you trade from #2 to #4 and add a 2025 1st from, say, the Patriots ... that 1st rounder next year could be incredibly valuable to adding another OT, a premier WR, or a stud defender since Sam proved himself. If Sam doesn't, then that just becomes ammo to go get a QB.

 

 I don't think they will be picking 2 that would require too many things to have to go right.  But if they can trade back from say 5 to 9 and pick up a 2025 1st round pick from a team that is not that good (hence why they are picking 9th) and get the 9th pick and possibly more picks this year I'd do that deal twice.  We could land a stud LT and have the draft capital to possibly move up and grab a QB next year should Howell fail.  

[Warhead36]

I think you can win games with Howell but his ceiling isn't high. He'll never be in that league superstar tier. The guy you see in SNF advertisements, leading the league in jersey sales, etc. And if you think you have a shot at that guy, you go for it, because that guy completely changes the trajectory of your franchise for the next 10 years.

[Darrell Green Fan]

By the way having watched what I could of the Chargers on Red Zone all year I'm not convinced Herbert is this stud QB everyone believes him to be.  There I said it.  

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

By the way having watched what I could of the Chargers on Red Zone all year I'm not convinced Herbert is this stud QB everyone believes him to be.  There I said it.  

Dude's killing my fantasy team and then got hurt yesterday, costing me the playoffs.

 

But I think he's been effed by bad coaching and the general strench that is the Chargers.

[kingdaddy]

3 hours ago, No Nonsense said:

At this point, I'd be satisfied with being in the top 5 and will be ecstatic with being in the top 4. We should be able to draft who we want to in either position. 

Keep an eye on the Bills/Cowboys game this week because it could have a huge impact on Week 18 with NYG vs Philly and Wash vs Dallas. The Eagles could have a 1 game cushion on Dallas for the NFC East while owning the tiebreaker meaning the week 18 slate will be meaningless and the NYG could steal a win. Philly could still be fighting for the overall #1 seed too but every Dallas game is important leading up to our meeting with them in week 18. 

Beating Dallas would be borderline disastrous for us in week 18 but with a coaching staff in flux they may just try and win that game. It's a good reason to fire RR before week 18 in my opinion. 

[Warhead36]

There is no chance this team beats the Cowboys if that game has any meaning for them, which it likely will based on what the standings look like right now.

 

And even then, I think their backups would beat us. Remember this is the team that lost to Tommy Devito. And the Dolphins backup offense scored a TD on our defense.

[kingdaddy]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think you can win games with Howell but his ceiling isn't high. He'll never be in that league superstar tier. The guy you see in SNF advertisements, leading the league in jersey sales, etc. And if you think you have a shot at that guy, you go for it, because that guy completely changes the trajectory of your franchise for the next 10 years.

I thought of this angle, the "face of the franchise" that new ownership may consider a must have. What if one of the top QB prospects falls to us and has all of the intangibles plus the skill to succeed as a player. Does that trump Sam's body of work and potential ceiling? It's a poor example but I said it earlier, Portland passed over Michael Jordan because they needed a center. Get the stud if he falls in your lap, especially if he's a QB. We also need to win back a fan base and fill the stadium so I wonder if that'll play into our pick. Not many OT's put jersey's on fans and butts in seats. 

[Warhead36]

7 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I thought of this angle, the "face of the franchise" that new ownership may consider a must have. What if one of the top QB prospects falls to us and has all of the intangibles plus the skill to succeed as a player. Does that trump Sam's body of work and potential ceiling? It's a poor example but I said it earlier, Portland passed over Michael Jordan because they needed a center. Get the stud if he falls in your lap, especially if he's a QB. We also need to win back a fan base and fill the stadium so I wonder if that'll play into our pick. Not many OT's put jersey's on fans and butts in seats. 

Exactly.

 

I always say: don't pass up a Rolls Royce because you own a Toyota.

 

And honestly, Howell isn't even a Toyota right now. That's where he likely projects to be.

[Skinsinparadise]

Commanders LB Jamin Davis is out for the season with a shoulder injury

 

Commanders linebacker Jamin Davis will undergo surgery for a shoulder injury he suffered in the team’s Week 13 loss to the Miami Dolphins and be placed on injured reserve, ending his season early, according to multiple people with knowledge of the matter.

 

 

It’s unclear when Davis suffered the injury; he played 55 of the team’s 61 defensive snaps against Miami. An MRI and two doctors’ opinions confirmed the injury.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/11/jamin-davis-shoulder-injury/

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I am still bitter than Ron did not take a TE with such a deep class last year.  Then we would not even be considering Bowers.  

On the one hand: we would have had to trade up, or trade down. This front office is more interested in staying at slot to overdraft scrubs, and to blow 2nd rounders on projects and Alabama's maxed out no names. 

 

So glad this is ending after this year.

 

I will give them a slight mulligan from the standpoint that Kincaid, Laporta and Mayer all went between 25 and like 35, but I don't think anyone on this board would have complained if they were shown cards with 2 options (take massive reach Forbes at slot, or trade down and take Kincaid, Laporta or Mayer 10+ picks later) and we went with the latter. Alas we were idiots as we've been most drafts on day 1 and day 2 under this administration. Can't load the trebuchet up soon enough.