2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[mhd24]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

We really do not have many player under contract for 2024. I count 44 players, and I would say a good 7-8 of those players are likely camp bodies or never get to camp via releases. This doesn't count 5-6 players I think man here expect to be cut (Leno, Wylie, Gates, Thomas) or traded (Allen).

 

Without doing anything we are already in a position for a near roster turnover. Taking out the cut candidates (let's assume 50% are cut/traded of the 6 listed) that puts us down to 32-33 players that are currently on the roster that we should realistically expect back. 

 

Bottom line: Lots of work to do ...

 

Most work to be done with: OG, DE, OT, CB, LB, RB, WR

 

Offense (24)

QB (2): S. Howell, J. Fromm

RB (2): B. Robinson, C. Rodriguez

WR (5): T. McLaurin, J. Dotson, D. Brown, D. Milne, M. Tinsley

TE (5): L. Thomas, J. Bates, C. Turner, C. Hodges, A. Rodgers

OT (6): C. Leno, A. Wylie, T. Scott, B. Daniels, J. Good-Jones, A. Akingbulu

OG (2): S. Cosmi, C. Paul

OC (2): N. Gates, R. Stromberg

 

Defense (18)

DE (5): K. Henry, A. Jones, S. Toney, J. Harris, J. Pryor

DT (4): J. Allen, D. Payne, P. Mathis, J. Ridgeway

LB (1): J. Davis

S (3): Q. Martin, P. Butler, D. Forrest

CB (5): E. Forbes, B. St. Juste, C. Holmes, T. Castro-Fields, K. Blu-Kelly

 

ST (2): T. Way, T. Addington

 

 

 

I can't see Leno being cut.  He's a competent average LT.  He's not elite or anything, but he's playable.  That's valuable (especially for a likely rookie QB).  He wasn't the issue this year.  It was the LG and RT spots mainly (with center being 3rd).  

[method man]

21 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

I can't see Leno being cut.  He's a competent average LT.  He's not elite or anything, but he's playable.  That's valuable (especially for a likely rookie QB).  He wasn't the issue this year.  It was the LG and RT spots mainly (with center being 3rd).  

Yep. He is going to struggle with certain matchups like Thibodeaux but he generally does a solid job. I think he looks better next year if he is paired with an upgrade at LG vs the guys he has had to play with the past couple years. 
 

He is apparently also the leader of the OL group. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, method man said:

Yep. He is going to struggle with certain matchups like Thibodeaux but he generally does a solid job. I think he looks better next year if he is paired with an upgrade at LG vs the guys he has had to play with the past couple years. 
 

He is apparently also the leader of the OL group. 

 

Given that cap space is not going to be an issue, Leno being cut was a much more likely scenario when we were looking to draft an LT in the 1st. Now that QB is likely the target there, it makes more sense to keep Leno around. For example, if we drafted Graham Barton and Tyler Guyton in R2 and R2/R3 in the upcoming draft, Guyton may project long-term as a LT, but my guess is he would slate in at RT in 2024. So your OL would be:

Leno - Barton - Stromberg - Cosmi - Guyton

 

Barton would probably be an immediate impact LG and help bolster both Stromberg and Leno. You could then determine after 2024 whether Guyton can flip to LT, or go into the next FA/Draft cycle with a need to add a LT to "complete" the OL (along with extending Cosmi, presumably).

From a roster-building standpoint that's an ideal way to build an OL. Leno would be the only major contract on the OL with 4 players on rookie contracts. Then once Leno rolls off the books, Cosmi replaces him with an extension as a high-priced OL contract, while the other 3 spots would be on rookie deals, and potentially the LT replacement if that is through the 2025 draft. 

 

OL could in theory have 2-3 high-paid OL-men. We had these discussions several years ago with Trent, Scherff, and how to build an OL around two high-priced players. We are in a good position in that we don't have excess money designated to the OL. Yes, Leno/Gates/Wylie add up, but the rest are on rookie deals, and both Gates and Wylie are not albatross contracts and could easily be shed in 2024 or 2025. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

And this has me thinking ... the ideal path to building the OL is through the draft. But you don't want to go into the draft HAVING to draft an OL.

 

So how do you approach FA and the draft if you plan to hit OL early and often in the draft?

 

If you sign someone like Jonah Williams to play RT on a big contract, you can still draft Tyler Guyton in R2 but maybe with the intent to be a swing tackle in 2024 and take over at LT in 2025? More assets the better IMO. I think LG is somewhere we address in the draft early. But OT is a need, even if you sign a premier FA? But if you sign a premier LG, that makes someone like Barton a misfit. You don't want to spend a high pick on a backup Guard unless Barton and/or Fautanu (whoever is there at 36) could also play RT, which is nice. Unless the plan is to let Cosmi walk in 2025 and you plan to shift Barton to RG? But is that a worthwhile pick in 2024 with so many holes, unless Barton can play RT and you re-address the debate in 2025 ala Cosmi a couple years ago?

 

There's so many different directions we could go.

 

What if we signed Mike Onwenu or Jonah Williams to big contracts to play RT, drafted Graham Barton to play LG, and drafted Tyler Guyton or another OT in the 3rd round to develop and be our swing tackle?

LT: Leno, Guyton

LG: Barton, Wylie, Paul

OC: Stromberg, Gates

RG: Cosmi

RT: Williams, Daniels

 

That would be a stout OL. 

 

And the wildcard would be having a player like Mims fall into early R2 and snag him. That would be a coup. He's definitely someone that could play LT long-term. If you drafted Mims + Barton you could argue they could start LT-LG right way, which then makes Leno a cut candidate. 

 

Sign Williams, Draft Mims and Barton? Best case scenario IMO

 

LT: Mims

LG: Barton, Wylie, Paul

OC: Stromberg, Gates

RG: Cosmi

RT: Williams, Daniels

Edited January 5 by JamesMadisonSkins

[KDawg]

I think justifying Leno, despite struggling with the better DEs, is a mistake.

 

Having said that… 

 

We can only plug so many holes and while Leno isn’t perfect, he’s not a code red hole, either. We have essentially 37 contributors under contract. 
 

We need to sign 16 contributors for the main roster, not including cuts or trades. Then we need upgrades. I know we have cap but that gets eaten quick. 
 

We have a lot to do and creating additional issues this year isn’t smart.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

We need to sign 16 contributors for the main roster, not including cuts or trades. Then we need upgrades. I know we have cap but that gets eaten quick. 
 

We have a lot to do and creating additional issues this year isn’t smart.

 

We have 9 draft picks, and you hope all of them (including the 7th rounder) make the team. We also have a thin roster, so not out of the question to expect a couple UDFA's to stick too.

 

I think we should expect 10 min. rookies to make the roster. 

 

So then you need to tap into FA to add an additional 6-10 contributors depending on how many existing contracts we shed. Obv. we'll sign a lot more to come in as camp bodies, but as far as the Final 53 man roster that counts toward our salary cap, I'd think we'd be penciling in 6-10 FAs to come in and be on the final 53. A few of those will be in the $3-5m 1-2 year contract range, so I think there's still plenty of room to bring in several impact players if that's our desire with room to spare, especially since the cap hit on bigger deals won't be near the APY of the contracts signed.

Edited January 5 by JamesMadisonSkins

[seantaylor=god]

You Will Never Look At the NFL Draft the Same Way

 

Great video on YouTube regarding present vs future value bias and why NFL teams make poor decisions.

[Chump Bailey]

We're in good shape RB wise concerning the draft to find an Antonio Gibson type of replacement. The draft is loaded with very good RB's IMO but especially those in the pass catching realm. I do think this RB class in being slept on as a whole and will turn out to be a whole lot better than many thought heading in. It's deep and quite good IMO. 

 

@Skinsinparadise guy Memphis RB Blake Watson also Memphis QB Seth Hanigan is a sleeper IMO as is their slot WR Demeer Blankumsee 

 

@RWJ guy South Dakota State RB Isaiah Davis

 

Even Day 3 we can get an outstanding RB and I'm probably just scratching the surface here not kidding:

 

Damien Martinez Oregon State

Kendall Milton Georgia

Jase McClellan Alabama

Kobe Lewis Central Michigan

Jalen Berger Michigan State

Emani Bailey TCU

Ulysses Bentley IV Ole Miss

Kimani Vidal Troy

EJ Smith Stanford *Likely go higher if declares

Rasheen Ali RB Marshall *Likely go higher if healthy and tests well

Jalen White Georgia Southern

Montrell Johnson Jr. Florida

La'Damian Webb South Alabama

Tyshon King Youngstown State

[skinny21]

I’ve been of the mindset that our FA should focus on defense and adding high end talent (though we’ll sign a bunch of cheaper guys too of course).  DE, ILB, and then either a corner or safety (I think we’ll sign one of each at least, but I think only one will/should be a higher priced guy).  I’d look to add a higher end talent at IOL too.  Very doable IMO, though convincing those types to come here might be the hard part.

 

Then the draft can focus on taking advantage of quality depth at OT and WR, while also adding some combo of RB, IOL, TE and maybe a couple of defensive players.  This is presuming we land a QB in the 1st of course, which, by the way, I’m not yet 100% on, even if I think it’s the safest offseason bet (other than a new FO).

 

The one thing that gives me pause is 1) the analytics side and 2) the idea that the focus could be on slow playing things a bit - waiting on big deals until the rookie qb (and to a lesser extent the coaching staff/FO) gets their feet wet.  Maybe they do indeed go after 1 year deals, or guys that they hope can break out in the near future.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

 

I can't see Leno being cut.  He's a competent average LT.  He's not elite or anything, but he's playable.  That's valuable (especially for a likely rookie QB).  He wasn't the issue this year.  It was the LG and RT spots mainly (with center being 3rd).  

 

I think center was a bigger issue than RT this year.  Larsen and Gates were bad, and it's concerning to me that Stromberg basically didn't play at all.  I didn't care for him as a prospect, so I was hoping to see some positive flashes from him.  If he's not a good long term option for us, then we need to get one in house this year or next.

 

I'd like an upgrade over Wylie for sure, but we're going to have to get a prospect who is actually good right now to do that like Fuaga instead of a developmental type.  If we go for someone who needs work like Guyton, then Wylie is probably going to win the starting job again and we're not really getting any immediate upgrades.

 

LG and OC need to be addressed immediately, one way or another.  One potential fix is to get a day 1 starting RT and move Wylie to LG.  Still don't know how you do that and get an OC capable of starting as a rookie though.  Van Pran is the best bet to be a day one starter, followed by JPJ.  They'll require the same picks we'd have to use to get a day one starting RT.

 

 

[method man]

40 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

And this has me thinking ... the ideal path to building the OL is through the draft. But you don't want to go into the draft HAVING to draft an OL.

 

So how do you approach FA and the draft if you plan to hit OL early and often in the draft?

 

If you sign someone like Jonah Williams to play RT on a big contract, you can still draft Tyler Guyton in R2 but maybe with the intent to be a swing tackle in 2024 and take over at LT in 2025? More assets the better IMO. I think LG is somewhere we address in the draft early. But OT is a need, even if you sign a premier FA? But if you sign a premier LG, that makes someone like Barton a misfit. You don't want to spend a high pick on a backup Guard unless Barton and/or Fautanu (whoever is there at 36) could also play RT, which is nice. Unless the plan is to let Cosmi walk in 2025 and you plan to shift Barton to RG? But is that a worthwhile pick in 2024 with so many holes, unless Barton can play RT and you re-address the debate in 2025 ala Cosmi a couple years ago?

 

There's so many different directions we could go.

 

What if we signed Mike Onwenu or Jonah Williams to big contracts to play RT, drafted Graham Barton to play LG, and drafted Tyler Guyton or another OT in the 3rd round to develop and be our swing tackle?

LT: Leno, Guyton

LG: Barton, Wylie, Paul

OC: Stromberg, Gates

RG: Cosmi

RT: Williams, Daniels

 

That would be a stout OL. 

 

And the wildcard would be having a player like Mims fall into early R2 and snag him. That would be a coup. He's definitely someone that could play LT long-term. If you drafted Mims + Barton you could argue they could start LT-LG right way, which then makes Leno a cut candidate. 

 

Sign Williams, Draft Mims and Barton? Best case scenario IMO

 

LT: Mims

LG: Barton, Wylie, Paul

OC: Stromberg, Gates

RG: Cosmi

RT: Williams, Daniels

I generally agree with you on not needing to go into a draft to fill OL but I make an exception this year given just how historically deep this OL class is and because we have the premium picks to get those guys - in most of our recent drafts, we have been missing a 2nd or 3rd round pick 

9 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I think center was a bigger issue than RT this year.  Larsen and Gates were bad, and it's concerning to me that Stromberg basically didn't play at all.  I didn't care for him as a prospect, so I was hoping to see some positive flashes from him.  If he's not a good long term option for us, then we need to get one in house this year or next.

 

I'd like an upgrade over Wylie for sure, but we're going to have to get a prospect who is actually good right now to do that like Fuaga instead of a developmental type.  If we go for someone who needs work like Guyton, then Wylie is probably going to win the starting job again and we're not really getting any immediate upgrades.

 

LG and OC need to be addressed immediately, one way or another.  One potential fix is to get a day 1 starting RT and move Wylie to LG.  Still don't know how you do that and get an OC capable of starting as a rookie though.  Van Pran is the best bet to be a day one starter, followed by JPJ.  They'll require the same picks we'd have to use to get a day one starting RT.

 

 

If you go with a rookie QB, you almost have to pair him with a veteran center so you don’t overload the young QB with the full set of calls at the LOS. I really do think Connor Williams is a good fit. Given the ACL injury he is recovering from, you can probably get him on a short term deal. He is going to miss minicamp and a good bit of training camp so you will get to see what you have in Stromberg. If Stromberg looks good, you probably have your answer at the position 2025 and beyond. If he does not look good and Williams performs, you probably give him a LT deal next year.

[method man]

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think justifying Leno, despite struggling with the better DEs, is a mistake.

 

Having said that… 

 

We can only plug so many holes and while Leno isn’t perfect, he’s not a code red hole, either. We have essentially 37 contributors under contract. 
 

We need to sign 16 contributors for the main roster, not including cuts or trades. Then we need upgrades. I know we have cap but that gets eaten quick. 
 

We have a lot to do and creating additional issues this year isn’t smart.

A question I’ve been meaning to ask you @KDawg is where would Anton Harrison rank among this set of OT prospects? I think he would be a second rounder if he were in this class

[KDawg]

14 minutes ago, method man said:

A question I’ve been meaning to ask you @KDawg is where would Anton Harrison rank among this set of OT prospects? I think he would be a second rounder if he were in this class

 

Behind Fashanu, Alt, Fuaga for me I think.

 

I think I'd have him on par with Mims (injuries may even drop Mims further), Latham.

 

Back half of the first, I think. 

[mistertim]

59 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

You Will Never Look At the NFL Draft the Same Way

 

Great video on YouTube regarding present vs future value bias and why NFL teams make poor decisions.

 

Very interesting video. Some random thoughts on it:

 

- The draft value chart is dumb, and I think most of us agree there.
- At the end of the day, drafting players is still mostly a crapshoot, so pure data can still only give you a partial picture.
- No doubting the data that trading massive amounts to move up has rarely worked.
- Interesting point about GMs potentially only being interested in getting paid and winning now. Though I think there's a bit of a hole there as some GMs can definitely stick around for 10+ years if they're good.
- I think his making a big deal about the relative value and cost of rookie contracts in different areas of the draft is a bit silly, because they're all so low in relation to the cap.

Edited January 5 by mistertim

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

59 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

Even Day 3 we can get an outstanding RB and I'm probably just scratching the surface here not kidding:

 

Damien Martinez Oregon State

🙂 I coached that kid. I think he’s staying in school though.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

I think center was a bigger issue than RT this year.  Larsen and Gates were bad, and it's concerning to me that Stromberg basically didn't play at all.  I didn't care for him as a prospect, so I was hoping to see some positive flashes from him.  If he's not a good long term option for us, then we need to get one in house this year or next.

 

I'd like an upgrade over Wylie for sure, but we're going to have to get a prospect who is actually good right now to do that like Fuaga instead of a developmental type.  If we go for someone who needs work like Guyton, then Wylie is probably going to win the starting job again and we're not really getting any immediate upgrades.

 

LG and OC need to be addressed immediately, one way or another.  One potential fix is to get a day 1 starting RT and move Wylie to LG.  Still don't know how you do that and get an OC capable of starting as a rookie though.  Van Pran is the best bet to be a day one starter, followed by JPJ.  They'll require the same picks we'd have to use to get a day one starting RT.

 

 

That's exactly where I'm at with the OL revamp. If Gates or Wylie can play LG, it gives you two solid vets who are average at best, but should be solid. Cosmi is a vet now at RG, so if you sign, even over pay for a RT on a 1/2 year deal, use one of our high end 2nd rounders on VanPran or JPJ, the other probably goes WR and then grab OTs with a couple of the next picks and even OL late day three for depth, you've turned around a very bad unit with no depth and made it a strength with legitimate depth.

[The Rook]

Looking at another possible day three selection.

 

I like to look at positions of need that may not be addressed on Day 1 or Day 2.

 

Today is Dallin Holker – TE, Colorado State

On the list of TE prospects, he usually falls around number 10. 

He led the country in receptions (64) and yardage (767) for Tight Ends (of course Brock Bowers missed three games). 

His competition was not exactly SEC level, but he was selected Second Team All-American by numerous organizations – pretty impressive because, you know, Brock Bowers.

Sporting News, Second Team; FWAA, Second Team; USA Today; Second Team, Associated Press, Second Team; Walter Camp, Second Team; Sports Illustrated, Second Team; American Football Coaches Association, Second Team

 

He is listed as 6’5”, 225 or 235 lbs.   He will be 24 in April because he had two years missionary work.  He transferred from BYU September 2022, so he only had 9 receptions that 2022 season.

He has an athletic build and looks like he could add some weight in the pros.

 

When I was watching the films of the games I could find, I was surprised how slow he looked, but he was still able to get open.  The times I have found for him are 4.62, 4.64 & 4.66.  He looks slow to get to top speed, but when he does, he seems to glide at speed faster than the 4.64 time.

He uses his body well to shield the defenders and has a good awareness of where the defenders will be within the defensive scheme.  He will adjust his speed through zones. He seems to have strong hands and overpowers the DB’s in contested catches, which is good because he will make the catch in heavy traffic.

He is a willing and able blocker downfield and doesn’t mind powering over DB’s when he has the ball.  In fact, it seems to me that he likes it.  He was even used as a H-back and scored a TD as a Full Back.  I only saw a few plays where he was an in-line blocker, but he was able to seal the end.  In the pros, he will need to gain that weight I mentioned earlier.  But he is already a better blocker than Logan Thomas is. (LOL)

 

I have saved the best for last – his catch radius is remarkable!  The highlight video below is a good example of his range.  He may not be the fastest, but this guy can catch.  Over the shoulder, one handed, behind him, at his ankles, over his head and in traffic.

 

I know that TE is a need for Washington, but so are a lot of positions that may need to be selected before TE.  If they haven’t selected one in the earlier rounds,  they should at least consider Dallin Holker in the later rounds. 

 

 

Previously I posted about:

LB Payton Wilson from NC State – an award winning 6-year senior, with a history of injuries

RB Ray Davis from Kentucky – 13 TD’s on the ground, 7 TD’s receiving - he had 1000 yd seasons at Temple, Vanderbilt and Kentucky

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[Rufus T Firefly]

4 hours ago, Conn said:

The Broncos don’t have a 1st round pick or he wouldn’t be talking about those guys. If they had the #2 pick they’d be thrilled to take the QB talent we have a shot at…they don’t. 

The Broncos do have their first round pick this year. 

[Chump Bailey]

2 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

🙂 I coached that kid. I think he’s staying in school though.

 

Talent wise, do you like him as much as I?

[method man]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Behind Fashanu, Alt, Fuaga for me I think.

 

I think I'd have him on par with Mims (injuries may even drop Mims further), Latham.

 

Back half of the first, I think. 

I think of Mims as a higher ceiling lower floor Broderick Jones. Latham feels better than Darnell Wright as a RT prospect but that depends on the flavor you want as Latham is like Dawand and Fuaga is more like a Wright.

 

Is the fair direct comp for Harrison in play style Jordan Morgan? He doesn’t have Suamataia’s, Paul’s and Guyton’s tools but he felt more refined than those guys coming out, at least in pass pro

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

5 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Talent wise, do you like him as much as I?

He’s big and strong and fast and a good dude.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Very interesting video. Some random thoughts on it:

 

- The draft value chart is dumb, and I think most of us agree there.
- At the end of the day, drafting players is still mostly a crapshoot, so pure data can still only give you a partial picture.
- No doubting the data that trading massive amounts to move up has rarely worked.
- Interesting point about GMs potentially only being interested in getting paid and winning now. Though I think there's a bit of a hole there as some GMs can definitely stick around for 10+ years if they're good.
- I think his making a big deal about the relative value and cost of rookie contracts in different areas of the draft is a bit silly, because they're all so low in relation to the cap.

He also doesnt take into account the added value of the QB position itself. It was easy for him to use the last draft because a QB went at the top of the first two rounds. But the reason a top 5 pick is so much more valuable is because generally the best QB's coming out of college that year are going to be the picks there. And it is always and will always be a QB needy league. So trying to argue giving up 4 other position players for a chance to fix your QB position is bad is wrong imo.

[Chump Bailey]

Speaking of OT's couple more I missed on my initial once over:

 

Joshua Gray Oregon State

& We'll get to see Roger Rosengarten Monday night for Washington. I don't think he is an NFL caliber OT personally, but could be kicked inside and be a good OG.

Edited January 5 by Chump Bailey

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Last 2 seasons combined, here's the top QB's sack rate (as of right now). This also works great as all of these guys started both years in the same schools.

 

Caleb Williams - 6.6%

Drake Maye - 6.8%

Michael Penix - 1.4%

Bo Nix - 1.1%

JJ McCarthy - 4.5%

Spencer Rattler - 8.2%

Jayden Daniels - 8.3%

 

Things to note:

• Jayden Daniels was much worse last season in everything. This year was either a one hit wonder, or he improved on tons of issues including taking sacks. His sack rate this past season was 6.3%, compared to 10.0% the season prior.
• Penix has way more passing attempts than everybody else, that offense really goes through his arm. Maye is close but has about 100 less, and everyone else has 200-400 fewer attempts.

Comparing this to past top draft picks (and I'm only saying less attempts than Penix to put this in perspective of max volume seen in college by a top prospect, not indicative of anything else)

Trevor Lawrence

• College: 4.1% sack rate on 300 fewer attempts than Penix.
• Pro 2023: 6.3%

CJ Stroud

• College: 2.9% sack rate on 200 fewer attempts
• Pro 2023: 7.1%

Bryce Young

• College: 5.8% sack rate on 100 fewer attempts
• Pro 2023: 10.4%

Joe Burrow

• College: 7.1% sack rate on 100 fewer attempts
• Pro 2023: 6.2%

Kyler Murray (only 1 season as a starter)

• College: 4.6% sack rate on 700 fewer attempts
• Pro 2023: 6.7%

 

We generally see that sack rate increases in the NFL over college. Burrow's did not in 2023, however the rest of his NFL career has a higher sack rate than his college rate. Key take away, the college sack rate shown is probably the floor for their sack rate in the NFL. It will rise when it hits the NFL. This seems problematic for guys like Williams, Maye, Rattler, and Daniels as those guys will likely need a Top 10 OL to function to a level worthy of their draft position.

 

 

[Stone Cold]

Daniels high sack rate and his less than stellar ability to throw off schedule scare me.