Next Day Thread: Elimination Day

[KDawg]

4th and 1. The Commanders show some grit and risk and decide they are going to go for it. The 14 Commander fans in attendance are on their feet with anticipation. They are excited but nervous. It's a big play. Getting it can turn the tide of the game entirely to our side. Wait. Robinson is on the sideline. Strange. But okay, we can still run down their throats with Williams. We got this. Wait. WAIT. A TOSS!? A SHOTGUN TOSS?!

 

And that sums up the Commanders 2022 season.

 

I thought about ending this post there. But I have a little more to say. 

 

After the game, when questioned about if we'd see Sam Howell next week if the Commanders are eliminated today, Ron Rivera looked blankly out at the reporter gallery. Silent. 

 

I thought about ending this post here, too. But I guess I'll finish this thought, too.

 

"We can be eliminated?"

 

To some out there, this was just another moment to roast Commander fans for their team being a living, breathing meme. It coincides with the tremendous unveiling of Major Tuddy, which I got no less than 7 text messages from opposing team fans with some variation of, "hahahahahahah wtf is this?" about. Speaking of Major Tuddy... The team really took one on the field today. 

 

I digress.

 

"We can be eliminated" can be written off, of course. The team wanted to win today and didn't put focus into all of the playoff scenarios and, as I saw in many media outlets last night (not just here) the statement, "The coaches aren't fans that pour over every detail like playoff scenarios. They prepare to win and that's it".

 

First, I have spoken to many coaches in many levels, including NFL coaches in real life. I can assure you, most coaches pour over every playoff scenario. The team I coached this season wasn't great, but we had an idea every week of what needed to happen for us to improve playoff position. When I was on a D3 collegiate staff we knew what we had to do to get into the tournament or have a chance at an at-large every single year. To think coaches don't think about that stuff or know about it, for the most part, is an incorrect assumption. People like to know what is in store for their destiny and what needs to happen. It's an adrenaline surge. Most people that coach are in some shape or form adrenaline junkies. Not always the case, but for the most part it is. 

 

Why am I going on a diatribe about adrenaline and playoff scenarios?

 

I'm curious. If the Commanders truly didn't know yesterday was a potential elimination day (spoilers: it wasn't potential, it WAS) did they sit some of their primary players purposefully to rest them for the must win Dallas game and have them fully healthy? Could Curl, BSJ, Gibson have played? What was the extent of Jon Allen's injury that held him out the remainder of that game?

 

It's entirely possible none of them could have physically performed and their injuries were limiting to their play. I'm not suggesting otherwise. But curiosity has piqued it's head with me here: Were any of them healthy enough to play if the Commanders had known this was a must win game? That could be potentially game changing. Or absolutely no difference at all. And I'm not saying the players themselves didn't want to play. My curiosity is based on if it was a coaching decision. 

 

Curl himself is a big reason this team was able to transform the defense. 

 

With Curl in the lineup, the Commanders were 6-5-1. Without Curl? 1-4. I'd argue he's the most valuable player on our defense. I mean no disrespect to Daron Payne or Jon Allen, of course. They are pivotal. But Curl is the reason the secondary magically was able to cover. And then in his absence, no longer able to cover again. I've seen enough to say that Curl is the most important part to the secondary and his impact on a game is tenfold.

 

We need to re-sign Daron Payne. He has to be back. But we need to get Curl re-upped as soon as possible as well. He is a legit top 3-5 strong safety in the NFL. Is he a turnover machine? No. But as a guy who values defensive players that understand and can be field generals, Curl is a guy who can range in the secondary, play at the line of scrimmage, a sure tackler, an unselfish player where he does his job as a force defender or spill defender to help his teammates make plays that need to be made and he knows what needs to be done on every play.

 

He is our defensive MVP. It doesn't show in things like studs and duds because he's quieter than other guys. But make no mistake, he is one of our most important players. 

 

Carson Wentz was on the field.

 

I could have started the post with this and ended it there. But reoccurring theme: I'm going to keep going anyways. 

 

If Wentz is brought back next year for $26M I'm treating it as a Tress Way punt and I'm going to try to find better stuff to do on Sundays. Someone in the QB thread (or game day thread) said that an improvement in QB play would have been finding a QB who can hit the ocean from a boat. And based off of that one pass to the running back about six yards away that bounced off the turf, I'm not sure Wentz honestly would have gotten the ball in the ocean from a boat there. Maybe it gets a friendly bounce and ricochets off the edge of the boat and gets in the water... But I'm not sure otherwise. 

 

As far as Heinicke goes, I'm more than okay with him coming back as a backup next year, but only if Scott Turner is back. And, to be quite frank, I think Turner should probably be replaced at this point. A toss on 4th and 1? How many times have we lined up in short yardage situations and seen it wasn't Robinson that was in the backfield? Or we got too cute and didn't do the obvious (QB sneak, Robinson up the gut)?

 

Furthermore, I want to know who is in charge of subbing in several scenarios.

 

It seems we have backups in on defense nearly every time an opposing team starts deep in their own zone, but that could be my imagination. What isn't, though, is whoever is subbing the running backs. I'd assume it's the running back coach but assuming is usually mistake, and there is no way that a guy who spends all of his time with the position group wouldn't want Robinson in on those scenarios.

 

Shotgun toss plays on 4th and 1, jet sweeps on short yard to go scenarios... why?

 

Heinicke is most valuable in the Turner system. Heinicke himself I'm fine with. And if Turner is back he makes sense. But I'm not sure Turner should be back... and that means that Heinicke may not really warrant a return, either. But we'll see.

 

It's time to see Sam Howell. I keep seeing people saying the same things about Howell across media, and it's semi-frustrating: Sam Howell was a 5th round pick, he's not going to be good. His footwork is bad. It's not fair to play him against Dallas. It's not fair to play him behind this offensive line.

 

Folks, are you aware that his offensive line his senior season at UNC made this one look like the 90s Tuddys?

 

Sam Howell going into his senior season was touted as a potential top 10 pick after his sophomore year. Then Michael Carter, Javante Williams and Daz Newsome and Dyami Brown went to the NFL and his OL went from decent to horrendous. And what did Sam Howell do his junior year to make his draft stock slip?

 

 

24 TD, 9 INT, 3k passing yards, close to 1k rushing yards, 11 rush TD.

 

He fell because his team went 6-7. That's it. The guy is the same tough, elusive SOB that he was his entire career.

 

His foot work was a work in progress, but that hasn't stopped other teams from playing their rookies in scenarios they've had to play them. Howell is just about the only one we haven't seen this year. You cannot tell me, and have me believe you, that he is the least NFL ready QB that came out in this year's draft class. The guy went from a top 10 pick to a 5th rounder because... why? I don't get it. 

 

Brian Robinson is a stud. All of you who were mad about us picking him should think about overreacting to draft picks that you haven't really watched. There's a lesson there for sure.

 

I don't want to keep going. I'm tired of talking about this team at this point.

 

Studs: 

*** - Brian Robinson

** - Daron Payne

* - Darrick Forrest

* - Andrew Norwell (only reason I am giving him a single star is that he wasn't as awful as he was earlier in the season and quite frankly, I want Wentz' performance today to land him as our biggest dud with no competition)

 

Duds:

   - Scott Turner

   - Ron Rivera

        - Carson Wentz

 

 

 

 

Season to date:

* x 24 - Daron Payne

* x 21 - Terry McLaurin

* x 16 - Brian Robinson

* x 15 - Jon Allen

* x 13 - Jahan Dotson

* x 10 - Curtis Samuel

* x 9 - Darrick Forrest

* x 7 - Montez Sweat

* x 7 - Antonio Gibson

* x 7 - Jamin Davis

* x 6 - Benjamin St-Juste

* x 5 - Kam Curl

* x 5 - Kendall Fuller

* x 3 - Tress Way

* x 3- Dyami Brown

* x 3 - Back Judge in Vikings Game

* x 3 - Jack Del Rio

* x 2 - Chase Young

* x 2 - Joey Slye

* x 1 - Danny Johnson

* x 1 - Scott Turner

* x 1 - Rachad Wildgoose

* x 1 - James Smith-Williams

* x 1 - Jonathan Williams

* x 1 - John Bates

 x 1 - Wes Schweitzer

 x 1 - Jon Bostic

 x 3 - Taylor Heinicke

 x 3 - Cam Sims

 x 3 - Entire OL (whatever iteration in Giants Game II)

 x 4 - John Ridgeway

 x 5 - Charles Leno

 x 5 - Trai Turner

 x 6 - Nick Martin

 x 6 - WJ3

 x 7 - Sam Cosmi

 x 7 - Ron Rivera

 x 7 - Scott Turner

 x 7 - Andrew Norwell

 x 8 - Carson Wentz

[Est.1974]

Great post.

 

Season to date ‘studs and duds’ tally pretty much sums up our strengths and weaknesses heading into the offseason.

[Warhead36]

There is no reason not to play Howell

[skinsfan66]

Nice, what jumps out to me is the Ol sad faces and it tells the biggest story of the team.  I would say the OL and QB Wentz were the biggest reasons the team does not make the playoffs this year as a team. But the coaches put this team together day in and day out, Ron said Wentz was his man. Ron made the choice who starts and what coaches are kept, what part of the team needs to be fixed.  After reading this tread and the results are in no playoffs when it was there for the taking its on Ron and the coaches, they need to go.  Taylor gets too much of the blame, if Ron would have tried to take care of the OL instead of giving up 2 3s and 28mil and made a decision to redo OL, results could have been different, but he decided to stay the course and overpay and use picks on another QB on his way out.  His choice and he should lose his job for it.  It could have been Taylor, Howell 2 others and a rebuilt OL. Maybe Howell does get in with Wentz not here, but Taylor was not the big problem, A better OL may have made the difference.  Howell coming in late who knows. what we know is Ron blew it with Wentz, I have said last year and this year the OL deserves more heat and last year they were almost as bad too, tired of all the excuses, players who we have lost from last year, a great OL coach, the numbers say this too. Taylor gets most of the heat, he is paid 5mil plus and he earned his salary.   He could escape better than any recent QB in Washington. This NFL requires you to run, have pocket awareness, make any kind of throw you can get off, and you cannot have a run only line. Howell fits with running ability but he would have the same problems with the OL. He needs to play this week to get his feet wet. Draft another or 2 QB;s hope for the best but fix the line.

 

[CobraCommander]

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

There is no reason not to play Howell

So you're saying we won't do it. This team does the opposite of what everyone would do. When they zig, we run straight into a brick wall repeatedly with no helmet. 

[Renegade7]

@KDawg spot on about Curl, and have to add that him not practicing all week likely means he misses this game no matter what and secodary falls apart because of it anyway.

 

Im also not on the boat of piling on Ron because im sure in his head we needed to win out to make sure we made the playoffs and that was his focus (thats how he talks during playoff runs and I believe him).

 

It's not like if we put Taylor in out of desperation the results would've been any different.  The offense had stagnated and defense couldn't stop the big plays without Curl. 

 

Talk about losing to a bad team bothers me (not saying you saying that), because the Browns spent most of the season without Watson and now have a near identical record as us.  Way too many fans underestimated the Browns same as the Giants, and I hope that gets more context now that the season is over.

 

Folks were clamoring during the middle of the season that we needed to be ready for having one of the hardest remaining schedules after the bye, think it was 3rd at around .600 if I remember correctly from a sportscenter graphic.

 

Kudos to digging out of our early season hole, but that required wins that were going to be hard to come by in December and January.  Not winning a single game after the bye wouldn't surprise me at all at this point. 

[Csup]

You crack me up, Kdawg. I will end the post here. I have nothing ieft to add.

[Koolblue13]

Efe Obada should have pulled a star or two. He was a bright spot in a sparkling sea of pig poop.

[NoVaSkins21]

This loss and the season was on Rivera.   I really hope that $28M, the lack of depth at LB, CB, OL, the Wentz turnovers, and being eliminated was all worth it.  The team is forever stuck in purgatory with this guy as head coach. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by NoVaSkins21

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, NoVaSkins21 said:

This loss and the season was on Rivera.   I really hope that $28M, the lack of depth at LB, CB, OL, the Wentz turnovers, and being eliminated was all worth it.  The team is forever stuck in purgatory with this guy as head coach. 

The team is forever stuck in purgatory with Dan Snyder as the owner. And make no mistake… he is the owner until he isn’t. 

Edited January 2, 2023 by KDawg

[method man]

23 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Efe Obada should have pulled a star or two. He was a bright spot in a sparkling sea of pig poop.

Efe, save for his low football IQ, is another in a line of cheap to mid range younger FAs Ron & co have signed who has been a hit. With the savings they will get from cutting Wentz, Ron needs to go back to his 2020 offseason FA formula when he approached FA this offseason

[Leonard Washington]

We missed so many sacks yesterday. 

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, method man said:

 his low football IQ,

Whatchu talkin' bout?

[method man]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

Whatchu talkin' bout?

He made many noticeable mistakes this year… the Cowboys game with the block on the FG or punt that could’ve been run back for a TD and this game with what should have been a sack on Watson

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, method man said:

He made many noticeable mistakes this year… the Cowboys game with the block on the FG or punt that could’ve been run back for a TD and this game with what should have been a sack on Watson

I don't see how th most elusive QB in the league escaping a sack could be a knock.

 

The other two examples I get, but he's crazy new to this game.

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Whatchu talkin' bout?

 

Willis.

[method man]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I don't see how th most elusive QB in the league escaping a sack could be a knock.

 

The other two examples I get, but he's crazy new to this game.

 

It wasn’t your typical escape. Watson got away and he just stood there. Bad situational awareness. Again, I like him and I’d bring him back

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, method man said:

It wasn’t your typical escape. Watson got away and he just stood there. Bad situational awareness. Again, I like him and I’d bring him back

Thought he threw it.

[88Comrade2000]

54 minutes ago, KDawg said:

The team is forever stuck in purgatory with Dan Snyder as the owner. And make no mistake… he is the owner until he isn’t. 

Well, the Dan part of the equation should be  rectified sometime between March and May. Sadly, we will have to live with Ron for another year and who knows how much he will **** up the team, in attempt to save his job.

[Drfustercluck]

Oh man! The bile that rises to my throat when you mentioned the 4th and 1 toss....

 

To make it worse, Brob was actually running onto the field before he was called back to the sidelines. Turner is a foolish, stubborn man. And it's not as if this was an anomaly; He consistently made these calls throughout the season. You'd think he'd learn. Fast forward to Wentz doing a Michael Jordan impersonation at the goal line, and I'm fuming: WHY THE **** DIDN'T WE DO THAT ON THAT 4TH AND 1????

 

30 years as a fan. I can still relish in the memory of the last super bowl season (I feel sorry for those who have never known this team as championship-caliber), but those memories are beginning to fade, and my patience is waning.

[DWinzit]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I thought about ending this post there. But I have a little more to say. 

 

After the game, when questioned about if we'd see Sam Howell next week if the Commanders are eliminated today, Ron Rivera looked blankly out at the reporter gallery.

 

With Curl in the lineup, the Commanders were 6-5-1. Without Curl? 1-4.

 

We need to re-sign Daron Payne.

 

It's time to see Sam Howell.

 

Brian Robinson is a stud

 

@KDawg, thanks for these weekly posts. I look forward to them

I agree that you could have ended the post right there and no one would argue. I am glad you didn't since the other tidbits I included would have been neglected. 

 

Amazing how all these years and we are never better than a 50% wind team. We are not going to be better than that with Dan or with this coaching staff.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I’ve been in a holding pattern with Turner for 3 seasons now, because he’s had nothing to work with at QB.  Oddly enough, he does his best work with the most limited QB he’s had on the roster.

 

There are times where he really dials it up and makes me think there’s more to him.  I credited him with the patience to stick with the run game during the winning streak but the more I look at it, most of that credit has to go to BRob for churning out yards that aren’t there for most other RBs.  Probably the only area that made me not want to write him off, was how often he dialed up bunnies for Heinicke on third downs during that winning period.  Wide open first reads regularly.  
 

All that said, he’s made some god awful playcalls in the most pivotal situations the last two weeks. The two most outright pathetic situations yesterday:

 

KDawg covered this one already.  That toss on 4th and 1.  I honestly cannot think of a worse play to call at that juncture.  That is a fireable offense on its own.  I wish he had to face the press more often, because he should be required to answer for that and apologize to the team and fanbase.

 

The other, coming out of halftime where we had just scored a TD on the longest drive in two decades on the strength of the run game, you had to know that the Browns were going to adjust and sell out to stop the run.  Scott voluntarily hands the momentum directly back to the Browns by running up the gut twice in a row forcing 3rd and long.  Has a situation ever begged more for playaction?  Everything spiraled out of control from that point forward and I pin that solely on him.  
 

I get that his QB’s stink but he spends so much time camouflaging them and being afraid to let them throw it, he leaves so much opportunity in the table.  I am officially done with him.  
 

I’m not sure how much another OC could squeeze out of this QB room, but situationally he’s failed mightily and doesn’t deserve to another chance to squander opportunities.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[profusion]

Great start to the Porky the Football Pig era.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[veteranskinsfan]

This team has been mediocre under Ron.  Offensive line could not be fixed because we had no money left after spending it on a certain QB contract.

This team did not deserve making the playoffs based on their performance during the season.