Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Cooked Crack]

Guess back to the war

 

[Metalhead]

This such a crazy series of events. The only thing I can think of that would be enough to sate Prigozhin that quickly is granting him access or say in a tactical nuke. I hope I am wrong.

[DCSaints_fan]

This offensive could have a similar effect to the Tet Offensive in '68.  Operational failure but strategic success.  In this case, causing this level of dysfunction in the Russian military system might be  enough offset a failure if the UAF can't gain substantial ground.  Similar to how the NVA/VC didn't obtain any of their tangible objectives, but it was enough to cause American public opinion to start turning against the war.

[Gurgeh]

30 minutes ago, Metalhead said:

This such a crazy series of events. The only thing I can think of that would be enough to sate Prigozhin that quickly is granting him access or say in a tactical nuke. I hope I am wrong.

 

More likely Russia just didn't have the troops in place to stop some elements of Wagner from reaching Moscow. They appealed to the mercs to hand over Prigozhin, or just ignore him, and failed. Putin took a plane out the city to the north. Lorries were parked across bridges to try and slow the mercs from simply driving up the main road into the capital. Wagner took over the whole base of the southern command of the Russian army with very little resistance and were a day away from the city's outskirts. The Russians simply lost control of the situation.

 

Given time, Moscow could assemble enough troops to crush Wagner, but that time would be catastrophic for them in Ukraine. Exiling Prigozhin is the least worst solution.

 

However, I wouldn't give much for Prigozhin's chances of survival in Belarus in the long term. He was never popular among the military top brass or state security services in Russia, and after this embarrassment he'll be higher on their hit list than Zelensky. There'll be a window with his name on it somewhere.

[@DCGoldPants]

Prigozhen must have something on Putin to feel confident he won't be killed by him soonish. 

[Metalhead]

56 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

 

More likely Russia just didn't have the troops in place to stop some elements of Wagner from reaching Moscow. They appealed to the mercs to hand over Prigozhin, or just ignore him, and failed. Putin took a plane out the city to the north. Lorries were parked across bridges to try and slow the mercs from simply driving up the main road into the capital. Wagner took over the whole base of the southern command of the Russian army with very little resistance and were a day away from the city's outskirts. The Russians simply lost control of the situation.

 

Given time, Moscow could assemble enough troops to crush Wagner, but that time would be catastrophic for them in Ukraine. Exiling Prigozhin is the least worst solution.

 

However, I wouldn't give much for Prigozhin's chances of survival in Belarus in the long term. He was never popular among the military top brass or state security services in Russia, and after this embarrassment he'll be higher on their hit list than Zelensky. There'll be a window with his name on it somewhere.

Thank you. But what convinced him to stop his march? Putin fled and Prigozhin had no obstacles in his way, if I understand the reporting correctly. Lukashenko must have offered something on Russia's behalf.

[SkinInsite]

Chef boyardee got the best deal he could. Even if he could reach Moscow he was never going to survive holding it. So he got a short term reprieve.

 

Dude is probably going to get a radioactive ****tail injection sometimes in the next 6 month if he stays in Belarus.

 

[Larry]

6 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

Again, how can you let someone go if they committed treason?

 

Donald Trump really wants to know.  

 

[TheGreatBuzz]

2 hours ago, Metalhead said:

Thank you. But what convinced him to stop his march? Putin fled and Prigozhin had no obstacles in his way, if I understand the reporting correctly. Lukashenko must have offered something on Russia's behalf.

 

I'm guessing the oligarchs passed the hat for a few hundred million.

[DCSaints_fan]

5 hours ago, Metalhead said:

Thank you. But what convinced him to stop his march? Putin fled and Prigozhin had no obstacles in his way, if I understand the reporting correctly. Lukashenko must have offered something on Russia's behalf.

There wasn't a guarantee it was going to work.  Prigozhin obviously had a core of loyalists within Wagner, but its unclear how much support he had in and around Moscow.  Putin is still nominally in control and along as he was alive, there would have been people who would fight for him  It could have gone down like Operation Valkyrie.

Edited June 25, 2023 by DCSaints_fan

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

13 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

They were basically tourists

[Gurgeh]

6 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

There wasn't a guarantee it was going to work.  Prigozhin obviously had a core of loyalists within Wagner, but its unclear how much support he had in and around Moscow.  Putin is still nominally in control and along as he was alive, there would have been people who would fight for him  It could have gone down like Operation Valkyrie.

 

Prigozhin has ties with Russian special forces as they've worked closely together for years with the Wagner group. He's also what you might call "locally" popular around the city of Rostov because of Wagner's operations in Ukraine across the border there. The ordinary Russian soldiers probably like him as he tells more truth (or maybe less lies) about what's going on, but their Russian officers are not so keen for the same reasons.

 

In Moscow the only person who liked him was Putin, but once Putin signed the decree that Wagner had to fall under the control of Shiogu, Prigozhin was finished and he knew it. If Wagner had reached Moscow there would have been a fight that Prigozhin could only lose, but the cost of that fight would have been catastrophic for Putin's war in Ukraine. So a deal was struck.

 

It seems like Prigozhin has given up control of Wagner as part of the deal, although no-one would be surprised if some "new" mercenary force appeared, based in Belarus. Most Wagner units will however end up under the nominal control of the Russian military, but that can't be a happy relationship given the events of the last few days.

 

[Dan T.]

 

[skinsmarydu]

Savage! 

[tshile]

Worst coup ever 

[Renegade7]

This has got to be embarrassing for Russia.

 

I hope whoever comes after Putin tries to keep this from ever happening again for all the right reasons versus straightening out for historical revenge.

[Gurgeh]

A discussion about who really benefited from this farce (you'll need to switch to the English translation)

 

https://charter97.org/ru/news/2023/6/25/553340/

 

"Two people were seen at the negotiations - Dyumin and Patrushev behind his back. [Aleksey Dyumin is the governor of Tula oblast where Prigozhin’s army stopped, and Nikolai Patrushev is the powerful head of the Russian security council]. 

 

... it turns out that one person “won” Prigozhin's march - Patrushev...  All "Putin's proteges" have shown themselves to be complete a**holes. Putin himself is exposed as a nonentity who cannot enlist the support of any of the CSTO member states. And Patrushev.. turns out to be the main factor in stabilizing the internal situation. Along the way, Patrushev exposes everyone who did not show loyalty to the regime, but turned out to be on the side of the rebels."

 

Dyumin is being talked about as a possible successor to Putin; as his former chief bodyguard he's one of the few people Putin trusts, as much as he trusts anyone. And Patrushev emerges as a power behind the throne. In this version of events, Lukashenko and Belarus are bystanders who just did as they were told after the deal was made.

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

Interesting insight from 14 Russia experts.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/06/26/putin-what-comes-next-00103590

[Renegade7]

It makes sense that there wasn't really a deal anyone needs to worry about and the conversation from Putin to Wagner was more "you're biting off more then you can chew and you going to choke on it when you get to Moscow".

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Riggo-toni]

I wish Progozhin had stayed in Rostov on Don, even if just for a week.  It would have meant a bigger disruption to supplies getting into Ukraine.

I don't believe all the wishful thinking that this is the beginning of the end for Putler. Saddam survived a much bigger military loss and subsequent uprising, but would probably still be in power or passed it on to his son if the US hadn't invaded. Erdogan escaped a coup attempt and despite near hyperinflation is still in power.  Vlad isn't going anywhere, and his successor Patrushev is even more anti-western.

[DogofWar1]

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by DogofWar1

[Gurgeh]

Now the flood waters have subsided...

 

Ukrainian troops reportedly reclaim territory in Kherson province | Ukraine | The Guardian

 

Ukrainian forces have reportedly crossed the Dnipro River and retaken territory on the left bank of Kherson province, in a move that paves the way for a future possible advance towards Crimea.

 

According to pro-Russian Telegram channels, Ukrainian troops have seized the village of Dachi, opposite the city of Kherson, and near the destroyed Antonivskyi Bridge. They have dug in and are seeking to establish a bridgehead, the channels said.

 

...Pro-Kremlin bloggers said Ukrainian troops had “complete control” of several summer houses near Oleskhy, the occupied left-bank riverside town that suffered severe flooding earlier this month. Other embankment areas were in a developing “grey zone”, they added... It is unclear if Ukrainian forces will be able to advance further. Beleaguered Russian troops were calling in artillery and aviation support, bloggers said.

[Cooked Crack]