The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Mooka]

5 hours ago, illone said:

How much better is Drake Maye compared to Sam Howell?
 

The college numbers are fairly comparable…

 

Better is a tough comparison.

 

Maye* being 6'4" - 6'5" vs Howell at 6'0" - 6'1" makes them completely different prospects for the NFL. 

 

Edited February 24 by Mooka

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, UK Skins said:

Hey I didn't realise Daniels was three years older than Maye. That's a massive deal if we accept (and I think we all actually do) that both have areas they need to work on and improve.

 

It's a relevant point that some ignore.  I've read again and again about how Daniels really kicked himself in gear when he arrived at LSU and make a big climb.  He made that climb in college in a season where he turned 23.  He will turn 24 during the next NFL season.

 

Maye is 21 and will turn 22 just before his NFL debut.  

 

So if Daniels is getting props for his ascension in a season when he turned 23.  Why doesn't that same idea apply to Maye?  If we are comparing 20-21 year old Maye to 20-21 year old Daniels, Maye kicks his butt by a mile.  

[Warhead36]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's a relevant point that some ignore.  I've read again and again about how Daniels really kicked himself in gear when he arrived at LSU and make a big climb.  He made that climb in college in a season where he turned 23.  He will turn 24 during the next NFL season.

 

Maye is 21 and will turn 22 just before his NFL debut.  

 

So if Daniels is getting props for his ascension in a season when he turned 23.  Why doesn't that same idea apply to Maye?  If we are comparing 20-21 year old Maye to 20-21 year old Daniels, Maye kicks his butt by a mile.  

Its a massive deal and it doesnt even take into account that early breakout age is a very good predictor for future success

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

 

 

Or we can comp Maye to Justin Herbert's 6.45... or Josh Allen's 6.4.

[Dah-Dee]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Or we can comp Maye to Justin Herbert's 6.45... or Josh Allen's 6.4.

 

Or Trey Lance's 6.47 .... or Kenny Pickett's 6.4.  😋

 

I don't think we really want to play that game.

[method man]

3 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Or Trey Lance's 6.47 .... or Kenny Pickett's 6.4.  😋

 

I don't think we really want to play that game.

This comping of one guy’s scores to guys from prior years is idiotic

[bird_1972]

2 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Or Trey Lance's 6.47 .... or Kenny Pickett's 6.4.  😋

 

I don't think we really want to play that game.

 

These "metrics" are super fungible. Seems like folks can retrofit any of these to tailor to their argument. 

 

I prefer to triangulate between multiple data points (multiple metrics, expert opinions, etc). 

[mh86]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Or we can comp Maye to Justin Herbert's 6.45... or Josh Allen's 6.4.

I give myself a solid 10.0 if we’re mostly using arbitrary ratings.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Or Trey Lance's 6.47 .... or Kenny Pickett's 6.4.  😋

 

I don't think we really want to play that game.

 

Or Sam Darnold's 7.1... or Mitch Trubisky's 7.0... or Paxton Lynch's 6.8... or Teddy Bridgewater's 6.8... or Blake Bortle's 6.8... or Marcus Mariota's 6.8... or Dwayne Haskin's (RIP) 6.7... or Josh Rosen's 6.7.

 

If by "play that game", you mean taking Zierlein's grades seriously.  No, we really don't. 😂

[mh86]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Or Sam Darnold's 7.1... or Mitch Trubisky's 7.0... or Paxton Lynch's 6.8... or Teddy Bridgewater's 6.8... or Blake Bortle's 6.8... or Marcus Mariota's 6.8... or Dwayne Haskin's (RIP) 6.7... or Josh Rosen's 6.7.

 

If by "play that game", you mean taking Zierlein's grades seriously.  No, we really don't. 😂

Hey now, he changed his grading scale when he realized it was awful. Now it should align more until he realizes his grades were bad three years from now.

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, mh86 said:

Hey now, he changed his grading scale when he realized it was awful. Now it should align more until he realizes his grades were bad three years from now.

 

This is supposedly an NFL scale? I'm not going to pretend to know what scales teams use

 

 

[FootballZombie]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So if Daniels is getting props for his ascension in a season when he turned 23.  Why doesn't that same idea apply to Maye?  If we are comparing 20-21 year old Maye to 20-21 year old Daniels, Maye kicks his butt by a mile.  

 

b/c your not getting the opportunity to draft 21 yr old Daniels nor 23 year old Maye. You have to make a choice given what is there.

 

The advantage of youth is that you have to think Maye is more mold-able, or for some prospects may be continuing to grow physically and can still significantly improve in that regard. That is a desirable commodity.

 

The general idea is that all these players will improve over time. The expectation for any high end draft pic is to be better in 2 more years, that is not exclusive to the youngest guys. If they don't then they are likely busts.

 

 

 

Besides that, by the time we wait for Maye to have his ascension to super saiyan status at 24, Jayden could have already ascended beyond that to SSJ2, SSJ3 straight on thru to Ultra Instinct. /s

 

[HTTRDynasty]

5 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

This is supposedly an NFL scale? I'm not going to pretend to know what scales teams use

 

 

It’s not the scale that’s the issue.  It’s his prospect placement on the scale. 

[mh86]

10 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

This is supposedly an NFL scale? I'm not going to pretend to know what scales teams use

 

 

Thank you! I wasn’t trying to discredit him, just having fun with it. Although it’s great to see what some way more qualified than me think, however, it doesn’t move the needle for me. I prefer a good write up versus someone just applying a grade. At the end of the day we all know the QB position is damn near impossible to identify a hit so we’re all just throwing **** at the wall and hoping sticks.

Edited February 24 by mh86

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

This is supposedly an NFL scale? I'm not going to pretend to know what scales teams use

 

 

 

Then given some of the high grades on busts and lower grades on studs we can probably deduce some possibilities:

 

1) NFL teams are dumb

2) This guy is dumb

3) This guy is lying

4) These numbers are mostly meaningless

 

Probably some combination of the four. Though we all know that you just used cherry picked ones to make Maye look bad, hence not including some of the really terrible predictions.

[FootballZombie]

1 minute ago, mh86 said:

I prefer a good write up versus someone just applying a grade.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-1-0

 

Click on players names to go to their page. Short write up and a list of strengths and weaknesses.

[mh86]

14 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-1-0

 

Click on players names to go to their page. Short write up and a list of strengths and weaknesses.

Thank you! I am familiar since I spend too much time on that site. I was speaking on the grader in question. Disregard, I see it now! Thanks again 

Edited February 24 by mh86

[NOLA2DC]

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Have you though?  What’s missing for me is stuffing it in tight windows, which is one of the most important aspects of being a legit QB in the NFL.

I'm not a former QB or anything like that, but I have not heard anyone say he doesn't have an NFL-caliber arm. I've seen him place the ball where it needed to be so his guy could make a play. He's not Dany Wuerffal or some other overachieving undersized college QB. He's 6-4 and skinny, but proven he can play with the best.  

[kingdaddy]

What is holding Bo Nix back from being in the elite QB prospects? 45 TD passes vs 3 ints? He can run....seems tough and smart, has a decent arm. 6'2 inches tall. He seems like a comp to Joe Burrow for me? How is Maye such a better prospect? I'm sure it's been pointed out by many but I like what I see in Nix's highlites package. In fact, I'd be more than fine taking MHJ  at 2 and finding a way to get Nix with our 2nd pick.

[HTTRDynasty]

Video breakdown from Maye’s literal biggest fan:

 

 

[mh86]

18 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

I'm not a former QB or anything like that, but I have not heard anyone say he doesn't have an NFL-caliber arm. I've seen him place the ball where it needed to be so his guy could make a play. He's not Dany Wuerffal or some other overachieving undersized college QB. He's 6-4 and skinny, but proven he can play with the best.  

I’m no expert either, but I think you’re mistaken on what he means by fitting it into a tight window. Next Gen Stats defines a "tight-window throw" as a throw where the intended receiver had less than a yard of separation from the defender from nfl.com. Some of Daniel’s throws that we are able to watch are to receivers that have more than that on a regular basis. It’s not necessarily his fault, but it does raise the question. Similarly, he doesn’t throw his receivers open - he waits for them to be open.

 

also some would say fitting it into a tight window is something like this:

 

 

 

Edited February 24 by mh86
Formatting

[Anselmheifer]

6 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Trying to get some velocity readings on Daniels via brute force, that is, recording clips of throws via bandicam then going into clipchamp and just trying to get to the frame in which the ball comes out on the other end the frame that the receiver catches it.  It's a very inexact science, esp bc I'm working on basically a 1D plane + time, versus the 3D world + time it actually is.

 

Plays 

Big TD during Bama game, 48ish yards through the air (his 46 to their 6) in approximately 2.5 seconds.  So 57.6 feet per second which is roughly 39.26 mph.  That's a deep lofted ball so it's definitely traveling farther than the 48 yards, but without knowing the exact arc, can't know exact # of feet.  But it's also not in a majorly different part of the field so just treating it as 48 through the air straight line.

 

From (https://youtu.be/plUZi05mtUQ?si=n75XOFXH-gcTYCTW&t=371) Throw to middle 21 yards down the field (28 to 49) in .98 seconds.  64.28 feet per sec, 43.8 mph.  This one is more on a rope.

 

From (https://youtu.be/plUZi05mtUQ?si=w9-dcbIGlirD4bkK&t=458).  Throw to middle, 12 yards (24 to 36) in approx .53 seconds.  Shorter quicker pass. 67.9 feet per second, 46.3 mph.

 

Without comparing to, say, Maye, Williams, or NFL QBs, hard to see how good or bad that is at game speed, but at least I have some baselines for Daniels.

 

 

 

 

I don't remember which scouting duo it was, but one of them that I have watched, maybe associated with PFF, both agreed that Daniels has the weakest arm of any of the tp 6 QB's, Williams, Maye, Penix, Bo Nix, Rattler. I don't know that that is a death knell, or even that I agree. I like Daniels. He does raise my Bp a little. Drake Maye does too.

[mistertim]

43 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

What is holding Bo Nix back from being in the elite QB prospects? 45 TD passes vs 3 ints? He can run....seems tough and smart, has a decent arm. 6'2 inches tall. He seems like a comp to Joe Burrow for me? How is Maye such a better prospect? I'm sure it's been pointed out by many but I like what I see in Nix's highlites package. In fact, I'd be more than fine taking MHJ  at 2 and finding a way to get Nix with our 2nd pick.

 

One big issue/question is that he went to Auburn with a fair amount of hype but was quite underwhelming and mostly disappointing there. Then when he transferred to Oregon he suddenly started to flourish. So who are you getting when you draft him? Auburn Nix or Oregon Nix? Does it mean he's mostly a product of the Oregon system? It's very QB friendly with tons of screens and other shorter passes that allow for YAC as well as simple vertical concepts. There also weren't a lot of complicated reads.

 

He certainly does have talent and potential, but there are also plenty of questions. Which is why he's likely more of a mid 1st to early 2nd round pick.

 

And Joe Burrow is a terrible comp. He's not at all like him. Nix is a bit more like a poor man's Baker Mayfield.

[NOLA2DC]

42 minutes ago, mh86 said:

I’m no expert either, but I think you’re mistaken on what he means by fitting it into a tight window. Next Gen Stats defines a "tight-window throw" as a throw where the intended receiver had less than a yard of separation from the defender from nfl.com. Some of Daniel’s throws that we are able to watch are to receivers that have more than that on a regular basis. It’s not necessarily his fault, but it does raise the question. Similarly, he doesn’t throw his receivers open - he waits for them to be open.

 

also some would say fitting it into a tight window is something like this:

 

 

 

I think some of you guys are misunderstanding my position. I do not think you can point to some QB attribute or throw that will magically demonstrate NFL success. There is no template that exists, and all three of these guys will need to develop more.  If it were as simple as a couple of measures, Baker Mayfield would not have been drafted before Josh Allen or Lamar.  There is no stat for heart, perseverance, or leadership. These are intangibles that often define greatness but are not easily measured. I'm sure all three top guys have this potential, but I'm not naive enough to think I can predict something that people with much more experience routinely fail at. Two future first-ballot HOF QBs who are under 30 now (Majomes and Jackson) were not picked first overall.   

[Mooka]

*misshap editing, sorry. 

Edited February 24 by Mooka