The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[DogofWar1]

Trying to get some velocity readings on Daniels via brute force, that is, recording clips of throws via bandicam then going into clipchamp and just trying to get to the frame in which the ball comes out on the other end the frame that the receiver catches it.  It's a very inexact science, esp bc I'm working on basically a 1D plane + time, versus the 3D world + time it actually is.

 

Plays 

Big TD during Bama game, 48ish yards through the air (his 46 to their 6) in approximately 2.5 seconds.  So 57.6 feet per second which is roughly 39.26 mph.  That's a deep lofted ball so it's definitely traveling farther than the 48 yards, but without knowing the exact arc, can't know exact # of feet.  But it's also not in a majorly different part of the field so just treating it as 48 through the air straight line.

 

From (https://youtu.be/plUZi05mtUQ?si=n75XOFXH-gcTYCTW&t=371) Throw to middle 21 yards down the field (28 to 49) in .98 seconds.  64.28 feet per sec, 43.8 mph.  This one is more on a rope.

 

From (https://youtu.be/plUZi05mtUQ?si=w9-dcbIGlirD4bkK&t=458).  Throw to middle, 12 yards (24 to 36) in approx .53 seconds.  Shorter quicker pass. 67.9 feet per second, 46.3 mph.

 

Without comparing to, say, Maye, Williams, or NFL QBs, hard to see how good or bad that is at game speed, but at least I have some baselines for Daniels.

 

 

 

[DogofWar1]

Josh Allen comp.

Deeper somewhat lofted throw (https://youtu.be/Cz-WJub9kEw?si=m8110P_1i6zt3X9A&t=86) (apologies bc it's against us, oops) . Opp 43 to 4, 39 yards in approx 1.79 sec.  Now this is a little more diagonal from the close hash to...roughly....4ish yards from the sideline, so ball travels about 19 yards sideways while moving downfield.  Still can't guess anything on height but with help from our good ole pal Pythagoras we can guess that the ball traveled roughly 43.38 yards through the air if we pretend it's a 2D plane.  So 130 feet in 1.79 seconds, 72.6 feet per second, 49.5 mph.

 

More of a straight line pass into the endzone (https://youtu.be/Cz-WJub9kEw?si=epItW4pT5DUSUkQ2&t=210).  Roughly 4 yards into the endzone and throwing from 21 just inside far side hash so 25 downfield and about 27 across, so roughly 36.7 yards through the air in 1.35 seconds.  81.77 feet per second or 55.7 mph, fastest so far.

 

Now Allen is supposed to be one of the higher velocity guys so Imma go to bed but I'll see if I can do some with like, Jackson/Herbert/Maye tomorrow.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, BraveWarrior said:

So, I don't live in the region and thus don't hear this show. And I didn't realize at first that this was a clip from before DQ was hired. But I'm just curious about the statement the guy with the dark beard and Capitals hat said -  "Adam Peters... he's too smart and put together to hire Dan Quinn." So, how did that play out when Peters did hire Quinn? Does this guy have a negative attitude towards Peters now? Does he think he knows better than Peters? 

 

I know it's probably not wise to judge based on a 20 minute clip of this radio show, but if I lived in or near DC I don't think I'd be listening to this show during my drive time. 

 

Grant was obsessed with Ben Johnson it became a running joke on the show.  His other thing is no 2nd time coach.  And no defensive coach.  So Quinn fit all those categories.

 

But he got over and was impressed with Quinn thus far and yes he still likes Peters.

[mac8887]

10 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

 But he wont spend half the season injured either.

I get that people are low on daniels because of his slight build, but comments like this really don't help. Yes, I agree that daniels is more likely to sustain an injury do to his slight build and his running, but how much more likely? 10%, 15%? 

 

Drake maye holds the ball a long time and takes way more hits than he should, and if he doesn't clean that up at the next level, he will have a higher injury risk than qbs who excell at getting the ball out quick.

 

And really, injuries to qbs are a crapshoot anyway, it can happen to anyone, even the great Tom Brady, someone who got the ball out quick, and was protected by the refs more than anyone in history when it comes to taking hits, suffered a season ending injury.

 

So in conclusion, Maye is pretty much, just as likely to sustain a major injury as any other qb in the league, probably even more so because, he holds the ball, likes to extend plays which leads to him being hit, and he will probably be used as a runner more than most because of his running ability.

 

And please don't sat stuff like he won't get injured, it's likely we draft him and I don't want him to come in here jinxed, lol.

 

 

 

 

[mac8887]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

It absolutely is luck with some of the insane hits he's taken and the way he runs. He should probably have had about 5 concussions by now with the way his body flops around when hit. Thank god he hasn't, but with his skinny frame and the size and speed of NFL players, along with how his body reacts to hits, I think it's just a matter of time. There are only so many times you can crash a car before your luck runs out.

Jayden has taken 5 or 6 really big hits we've seen on his college film that looked really bad, but how many did he take the second half of this last season? He really improved at protecting himself and wasn't taking big hits. Plus, jaydens hits came from runs, most qb injuries happen in the pocket. One thing jayden does well is hid quick release, another is he is really quick at going through his reads, both of those will help him from getting hit to many times while in the pocket.

[CommanderInTheRye]

Daniel Jeremiah discusses the Commanders decision making process at pick 2:

 

 

 

QB fit for Commanders: If the Bears do take Williams first, the Commanders would then face a decision at No. 2, where they could be debating between North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels.

 

Jeremiah said he believes any of this year's top QBs could work well in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's system, but he's leaning Maye (listed at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds by UNC) over Daniels (listed at 6-4, 210 by LSU) when it comes to the best fit for Washington.

 

"To me, it's more about kind of the ceiling of what you think they can be," he said. "Drake Maye, with just having a little more prototypical size and playing in kind of a rugged division, that might be more of a decision-making point more so than the offense would be."

[FootballZombie]

Hate to break it to y'all but there is like a 99.9 % chance we are gonna be worrying about our QB getting plastered on any given play next year. Both likely candidates are not good enough at protecting themselves yet and will need to see improvements in that area.

 

Daniels struggles in that department are well documented, but Maye suffers from many of the same issues. His tape contains a multitude of explosive hits that result in flying backflips, frontflips, helicopters, scorpion faceplants and unnecessary gang tackles that extend from a desire to squeeze out every possible yard. 

 

I don't care if your JD 210, Maye 230 or Ant-man Richardson 250, your more likely than not gonna get broken in the NFL doing that stuff.

 

 

Its certainly more important for Jayden considering he will be running more, but I gotta see growth in the field of protecting themselves regardless of who we pick.

[Warhead36]

Just now, FootballZombie said:

Hate to break it to y'all but there is like a 99.9 % chance we are gonna be worrying about our QB getting plastered on any given play next year. Both likely candidates are not good enough at protecting themselves yet and will need to see improvements in that area.

 

Daniels struggles in that department are well documented, but Maye suffers from many of the same issues. His tape contains a multitude of explosive hits that result in flying backflips, frontflips, helicopters, scorpion faceplants and unnecessary gang tackles that extend from a desire to squeeze out every possible yard. 

 

I don't care if your JD 210, Maye 230 or Ant-man Richardson 250, your more likely than not gonna get broken in the NFL doing that stuff.

 

 

Its certainly more important for Jayden considering he will be running more, but I gotta see growth in the field of protecting themselves regardless of who we pick.

All these kids have things they have learn, grow at, develop in etc. when they enter the NFL. There is no such thing as the perfect prospect. 

 

At least we won't have EB making them throw the ball 60 times a game.

[FootballZombie]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

All these kids have things they have learn, grow at, develop in etc. when they enter the NFL. There is no such thing as the perfect prospect. 

 

Yup, growing pains are expected... in this case literally.

 

I'm just saying that regardless of what direction we go, I am already prepared to be yelling at my TV on Sunday's wondering "why would you take that hit" for the early portion of Maye or JDs careers.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Yup, growing pains are expected... in this case literally.

 

I'm just saying that regardless of what direction we go, I am already prepared to be yelling at my TV on Sunday's wondering "why would you take that hit" for the early portion of Maye or JDs careers.

I think for Maye we're more likely to be yelling "WTF throw was that!?" Its gonna take him a year, maybe two, to get the hero ball out of his game. On the flip side, that hero ball is gonna give us an opportunity to win games we had no business winning.

 

For Daniels we'll be screaming "GET DOWN" every time he's already picked up a big chunk of yards on a scramble but tries to run through a defender to make it a gain of 18 instead of gain of 15.

[Skinsinparadise]

This stat was posted by another the other day but it brings home I don't think Maye is equally vulnerabe to injury versus Daniels.  I've heard no draft geek type venture into making this point.

 

Aside from Daniels build, he also has the highest converstion to sack rate.  He also runs a ton when flushed out of the pocket.    And this is all in context where Daniels had more time to throw based on PFF metrics. 

 

Yeah anyone can get hurt.  But even Daniels biggest advocates accede that he's the more injury risk.

 

 

 

Edited February 23 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

I just did a little research on the top QB's coming out and found this sentence to be very intriguing. 

 

(via Ian Cummings, PFN)

By season’s end, Nix completed 364 of 470 attempts — a record 77.4% completion rate — for 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns, and just three picks. He operated at a level of efficiency rarely seen in his final two seasons, and he also has the talent to generate big plays.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, mac8887 said:

Jayden has taken 5 or 6 really big hits we've seen on his college film that looked really bad, but how many did he take the second half of this last season? He really improved at protecting himself and wasn't taking big hits. Plus, jaydens hits came from runs, most qb injuries happen in the pocket. One thing jayden does well is hid quick release, another is he is really quick at going through his reads, both of those will help him from getting hit to many times while in the pocket.

 

Most pocket QBs get injured in the pocket. But there have certainly been more run oriented QBs who have been hurt while running. And he may have a quick release, but he rarely throws off platform and buys time with his legs while looking downfield. The majority of the time he just tucks and runs. That's probably one of the things that led to such a super high pressure to sack ratio as well.

[DogofWar1]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

These two things are very concerning as presented but deeper analysis is warranted.  I'd like to see the breakdown by year of the former for 2023 versus other years.

 

On the 2nd stat, is that just what % of times they moved that they threw, or what % if times they threw on the move that they completed a pass?  Attempt % sounds like the former, but figure I'd check.

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

Apologies if it's been said, but has any QB of note opted out of the combine drills?

[FrFan]

Ahead of the 2024 Senior Bowl, ESPN’s Matt Miller shared that Nix went into the week facing concerns over “his accuracy outside of the Oregon scheme” that caused teams to worry about how he would fare in an NFL system. Entering the week, he was viewed as a “fringe” first-round talent who might only get pushed into Round 1 because of his positional value.

[MartinC]

9 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Trying to get some velocity readings on Daniels via brute force, that is, recording clips of throws via bandicam then going into clipchamp and just trying to get to the frame in which the ball comes out on the other end the frame that the receiver catches it.  It's a very inexact science, esp bc I'm working on basically a 1D plane + time, versus the 3D world + time it actually is.

 

Plays 

Big TD during Bama game, 48ish yards through the air (his 46 to their 6) in approximately 2.5 seconds.  So 57.6 feet per second which is roughly 39.26 mph.  That's a deep lofted ball so it's definitely traveling farther than the 48 yards, but without knowing the exact arc, can't know exact # of feet.  But it's also not in a majorly different part of the field so just treating it as 48 through the air straight line.

 

From (https://youtu.be/plUZi05mtUQ?si=n75XOFXH-gcTYCTW&t=371) Throw to middle 21 yards down the field (28 to 49) in .98 seconds.  64.28 feet per sec, 43.8 mph.  This one is more on a rope.

 

From (https://youtu.be/plUZi05mtUQ?si=w9-dcbIGlirD4bkK&t=458).  Throw to middle, 12 yards (24 to 36) in approx .53 seconds.  Shorter quicker pass. 67.9 feet per second, 46.3 mph.

 

Without comparing to, say, Maye, Williams, or NFL QBs, hard to see how good or bad that is at game speed, but at least I have some baselines for Daniels.

 

 

 

It’s possible you are overthinking this. 
 

🙂

[Bifflog]

Insight from Kurt Warner on why these QB decisions keep getting harder...

 

 

[DogofWar1]

2 minutes ago, MartinC said:

It’s possible you are overthinking this. 
 

🙂

Is there such a thing as overthinking when it comes to finding a franchise qb in a franchise who hasn't had a franchise qb in decades (arguably ever but at least since 91)?

[FrFan]

6 minutes ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

Apologies if it's been said, but has any QB of note opted out of the combine drills?

Jordan Travis (medical reason)

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, DogofWar1 said:

Is there such a thing as overthinking when it comes to finding a franchise qb in a franchise who hasn't had a franchise qb in decades (arguably ever but at least since 91)?

When you’re on a message board and not in football analytics for the team - possibly. But then this is called extremeskins for a reason 🙂

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, Bifflog said:

Insight from Kurt Warner on why these QB decisions keep getting harder...

 

 

That’s my concern about evaluating any QB from College to the pros. Almost no timing based throws, lots of throws to wide open receivers, masses of designed one read or run plays mixed in with RPO and designed QB runs. 
 

When I watch Williams for example the arm talent and play making ability is off the charts. But the offense he was in was just a mess (alarmingly Kingsbury was part of that). It’s basically just scramble drill and let Williams figure it out. 
 

Can he consistently make plays that are there within an NFL scheme and get the ball out on time after making a read and working a progression based on that read? Hard to know because he was hardly asked to do that in College.

[mistertim]

19 minutes ago, Bifflog said:

Insight from Kurt Warner on why these QB decisions keep getting harder...

 

 

 

I really like Kurt Warner but is this a new phenomenon to him or something? It's not like college offenses until the past couple of years have been full-on pro style and that only recently changed. It's been this way for many many years, so not sure why he's acting like it's some revelation when it comes to scouting.

[UK Skins]

Martin that's why I just can't watch College Football. Keep trying and keep giving up.

[FootballZombie]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I really like Kurt Warner but is this a new phenomenon to him or something? It's not like college offenses until the past couple of years have been full-on pro style and that only recently changed. It's been this way for many many years, so not sure why he's acting like it's some revelation when it comes to scouting.

 

He has been on this tilt for years.

 

(2017)

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/05/kurt-warner-says-young-qbs-arent-taught-how-to-play-the-game-which-is-a-dumb-thing-to-say

 

Kurt- “I do see that. I blame less the player and more the coaches. I believe the systems have become more simplified from the standpoint where it’s simply a numbers game or my guy is better than your guy. Or you have the zone read part of it.”

Edited February 23 by FootballZombie