The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[FootballZombie]

2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Literal "it will go straight to my thighs" intangible.

 

Makes sense why he runs fast I guess. lol.

[SkinsFTW]

5 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Literal "it will go straight to my thighs" intangible.

 

Makes sense why he runs fast I guess. lol.

 

Naa man, I saw that picture earlier. It seems that he runs fast because he's hungry! Gotta get more cheeseburgers!

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, redskinss said:

But he does have jayden ranked 24th overall and that seems kind of low also compared to most experts.

None of these guys are experts. 
 

If you or I got enough followers, we have the same credentials as most of them do.  

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

3 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I think they'ee just trying to be funny or troll people who prefer Daniels or something.

 

Anyway, these are recent pics

 

Wow. He looks a lot like Justin Jefferson in my opinion.

[illone]

4 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

I think they'ee just trying to be funny or troll people who prefer Daniels or something.

 

 

I'm here for it 😂

 

Ive taken some jabs myself. I personally want this team to pass on him. I hope we collect a kings ransom to trade down. I celebrate any potential team that is smitten by him. Bring on the bounty. 💰💰

[WashingtonRedWolves]

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

None of these guys are experts. 
 

If you or I got enough followers, we have the same credentials as most of them do.  

Reminds me of fantasy football "experts" that get **** wrong all the time

8 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

I'm here for it 😂

 

Ive taken some jabs myself. I personally want this team to pass on him. I hope we collect a kings ransom to trade down. I celebrate any potential team that is smitten by him. Bring on the bounty. 💰💰

Getting a kings ransom and then drafting McCarthy doesn't sound too bad to me

[seantaylor=god]

8 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

I'm here for it 😂

 

Ive taken some jabs myself. I personally want this team to pass on him. I hope we collect a kings ransom to trade down. I celebrate any potential team that is smitten by him. Bring on the bounty. 💰💰

Trading down guarantees us nothing except the certainty that another team can (and will) trade above us and take a QB. Nix, JJ, Penix, all have potential to go in the first and if a team likes them more than us they WILL trade up over us.

 

It’s foolish, and misses the forest for the trees. 
 

1. We need a QB. Howell has not proven to be even starter quality, and we want elite QB play.

2. Picking 2 is a gift that teams rarely get, and when you have it there is no guarantee that year there are worthy QBs.
 

Don’t be cute, just pick your QB.

[Ghost of]

18 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Someone made the point for me. The biggest knock on the Air Raid is it doesn't require the QB to really know how to read  a defense which is why a lot of scouts and analysts are often skeptical of guys coming out of that system in college. 

 

Mahomes sitting behind and learning from Alex Smith and watching film with him really helped him with the adjustment (which Mahomes has said numerous times)

 

You can see from the article I posted (God forbid, someone read long form anything) that the word coverage is mentioned over a dozen times, and he talks about coverages pre-snap and movement away (disguised) even and his response as a QB to what he saw. I'm not debating you here, I'm saying the article I posted really had some good takes on our new offensive coordinator's system and how prepared (or unprepared) an Air Raid-Kingsbury variant a QB in that system was.

10 hours ago, AlwaysBeRedskins2Me said:

Wow. He looks a lot like Justin Jefferson in my opinion.

He looks like he should be doing very well produced tech and consumer product reviews on YouTube.

[Ghost of]

One bit of apology here, I wrongly said the Skins picked Husak over Brady and while that is not technically true (he was selected after Brady) the Skins did end up selecting a late round QB (at some point in the draft) instead of selecting Brady anywhere between Rounds 3-5. My bad.

[HTTRDynasty]

This is pretty cool... a mock draft solely based on analytics and maximizing wins for the upcoming season only.  Let's just ignore the fact her model has the Bears drafting Alt at #1, lol.

 

 

Pick

1

 

 

Joe Alt

Notre Dame · OT · Junior

In this theoretical exercise, the Bears keep Justin Fields and pick this high-floor (aka lowered risk) LT prospect, who has experience but is also young (20 years old) with a ton of upside. Alt just passes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in immediate impact for the Bears’ O-line, which allowed their QBs to be pressured at the highest rate in the league last season (45.1 percent). This helps to show the value of the Bears’ first-round equity, which will allow them to move all over the board if they want to.

 

Pick

2

 

 

Caleb Williams

USC · QB · Junior

Williams’ reunion with his former USC coach, Kliff Kingsbury (now Washington’s OC), makes this a higher-upside match than it would have been a week ago (before Kingsbury was hired). I am not sure about the gap other people see between the QBs in this year’s draft, but my evaluation comes down to refinements between styles, opponents, team infrastructure, etc. for the top two, and potentially the top three. 

Pick

3

 

Drake Maye

North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

My models love Maye’s upside for a number of reasons, but one that stands out is the levels/routes he has thrown per computer-vision tracking data. He did not have the most consistent route runners and his ability to connect on many different throw speeds was extremely accurate. His intermediate throws that turned into receptions had a speed variance of about 7 mph. I only looked back for three seasons, but the average for Power Five QBs at the intermediate level is 3.4 mph.

 

 

Edited February 9 by HTTRDynasty

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, seantaylor=god said:

Trading down guarantees us nothing except the certainty that another team can (and will) trade above us and take a QB. Nix, JJ, Penix, all have potential to go in the first and if a team likes them more than us they WILL trade up over us.

 

It’s foolish, and misses the forest for the trees. 
 

1. We need a QB. Howell has not proven to be even starter quality, and we want elite QB play.

2. Picking 2 is a gift that teams rarely get, and when you have it there is no guarantee that year there are worthy QBs.
 

Don’t be cute, just pick your QB.

 

IME this whole "trade down" thing is more ideological than practical. It seems like every single year we have a group of people who want to trade down, regardless of the situation (in this case: having no QB) or the draft position. So I try to mostly ignore it because the answer almost every time is "BUT WE HAVE ALL TEH HOLES IN TEH ROSTUR!! MUST GET MOAR PIKS!!11!!"

[Skinsinparadise]

Sikemma, my fav among the draft guys for PFF

 

 

Maye’s stats and data points are steady and strong across his two seasons as a starter. As a first-time starter in 2022, he earned a 90.8 passing grade. The following season, it was 89.1. His big-time throws were slightly down in 2023, from 44 the previous season to 32 this past year. However, his turnover-worthy play rate went in the right direction, down from 2.4% to 1.8%. His adjusted completion percentage, passer rating and air-yards percentage were similar in both seasons, denoting a stable play style. Maye’s 60.3 passing grade under pressure over the past two years is in a similar range to that of Williams (61.1) and Daniels (58.7).

 

Maye also performed well across the two-year sample in other PFF-centric stable projection metrics. He posted a 95.3 clean-pocket passing grade and a 94.2 mark on standard dropbacks (no RPOs, no play action, no rollouts, no scramble drills). With no play action, he recorded a 92.7 figure. And his negatively graded throw rate was 14.8%, which placed him in the 76th percentile.

Looking at quarterback performance over the middle of the field tells us a lot. Attacking between the numbers and 10-19 yards downfield consistently yields some of the highest expected points added figures. Having a quarterback who is willing and successful enough to threaten the middle of the field puts a lot of stress on defenses, forcing them into tough decisions in how they deploy their safeties and linebackers.

A two-year sample size shows once again that Maye is not only in Daniels and Williams' tier, but also that he is better in many categories. From 2022-2023, Maye’s 102 attempts targeting the intermediate part of the middle of the field were more than Williams’ 83 and Daniels’ 71. Maye’s five big-time throws also bested Williams’ one and Daniel’s zero. The North Carolina signal-caller made three turnover-worthy plays compared to Williams’ three and Daniels’ four, but due to Maye having more attempts over the middle, his turnover-worthy play percentage in this area was the lowest of the three. He also had the highest passer rating, the most first downs and the lowest time to throw.

It is highly unlikely Maye will endure a fall as drastic as Levis' last year, if any fall at all, but it's worth reminding the draft world that he belongs as a top pick, shining in stable categories that project success at the next level.

Edited February 9 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

9 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

IME this whole "trade down" thing is more ideological than practical. It seems like every single year we have a group of people who want to trade down, regardless of the situation (in this case: having no QB) or the draft position. So I try to mostly ignore it because the answer almost every time is "BUT WE HAVE ALL TEH HOLES IN TEH ROSTUR!! MUST GET MOAR PIKS!!11!!"

 

You're talking about me, aren't you? I do try to caveat and couch my excitement for any trade-down that 1) I don't think it's likely, 2) I wouldn't do it (team Maye/Williams), and/but 3) if it did happen, it would be a great situation for us, maybe not as good as a franchise QB, but still a good situation given the haul we'd get .

[Voice_of_Reason]

28 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

You're talking about me, aren't you? 

[Going Commando]

27 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

You're talking about me, aren't you? I do try to caveat and couch my excitement for any trade-down that 1) I don't think it's likely, 2) I wouldn't do it (team Maye/Williams), and/but 3) if it did happen, it would be a great situation for us, maybe not as good as a franchise QB, but still a good situation given the haul we'd get .

 

If you pass on a franchise QB and you don't have one, then no matter what haul you get in exchange for passing on that guy, you are in a horrible situation.  You can not build franchise stability without a good long term plan at QB.  It is impossible.  If we pass on franchise QBs this year to trade down for picks, and we don't immediately mitigate that colossally stupid **** up by securing a franchise QB anyway via other resources, then everyone we're hiring this offseason will be gone in three years.

 

Punting on QB in this draft, with this #2 pick, would be such a horrible mistake that nothing could get me to check out on our rebuild faster.  Trading down is absolutely unacceptable.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

18 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

If you pass on a franchise QB and you don't have one, then no matter what haul you get in exchange for passing on that guy, you are in a horrible situation.  You can not build franchise stability without a good long term plan at QB.  It is impossible.  If we pass on franchise QBs this year to trade down for picks, and we don't immediately mitigate that colossally stupid **** up by securing a franchise QB anyway via other resources, then everyone we're hiring this offseason will be gone in three years.

 

Punting on QB in this draft, with this #2 pick, would be such a horrible mistake that nothing could get me to check out on our rebuild faster.  Trading down is absolutely unacceptable.

 

Oh for sure. I am on record saying I stay at #2 and draft Caleb or Maye. I am not sure I want Daniels, and I would guess the FO will find themselves utimately choosing between Caleb or Maye at #2. My caveats have been that we'll field calls, and there's a chance this FO ends up not loving anyone after Caleb. Maybe they aggressively try to get to #1. If they can't maybe they consider offers. We'd get a haul of picks, which would allow us to build the team, and try to make something of Howell. I don't think it'll happen. I am certain, nearly 99% that they will pick 1 of the QBs at #2. 

 

I am out on Howell for the most part, too. I was all-in on him earlier this year. If after, say, Week 9 you told me that we would be picking #2, trading back for a massive ransom of picks, and building a team around Sam I would have said - that's amazing (without really thinking to ponder how we went from 4-5 or whatever we were at the time to a record where we were to even accessing #2 by season's end.

 

It'll be Maye. And I will be really happy.

[HigSkin]

 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

You're talking about me, aren't you? I do try to caveat and couch my excitement for any trade-down that 1) I don't think it's likely, 2) I wouldn't do it (team Maye/Williams), and/but 3) if it did happen, it would be a great situation for us, maybe not as good as a franchise QB, but still a good situation given the haul we'd get .

 

I didn't really have any specific poster in mind, I just know that it seems like every year there's a group of people who get gung-ho about trading down, regardless of the situation. That's why I called it ideological vs practical.

 

I guess the fascination/obsession with trading down just misses me. I get that we have holes, but literally every team in the NFL has them. We're not some outlier. And you have to take the circumstances into account. This year we 1) have no QB and 2) have the #2 overall pick in a very strong QB class.

 

Given those facts, it seems ludicrous to me to pass up on drafting a potential stud who could end up being our franchise QB for the next decade or more so we can get a few extra picks who would be statistically more likely to end up as moderate starters or special team players (depending on the round) at other positions vs stars.

 

And yes, I know that it's also statistically more likely for our #2 overall QB pick to not pan out than for him to become a franchise QB, but with QB being a position that's so hugely outsized in importance, that risk is worth it.

 

Another issue to take into account, given no QB this year in a trade back scenario, is the strength of next year's QB class, since we'd probably be netting an extra 1st round pick next year in a trade back. And by most accounts next year's QB class is crap, so that extra pick may do nothing for us since we likely won't be picking so high and there likely won't be a QB worth using our extra 1st to trade up for anyway.

 

All that being said, there is a caveat. If GMAP and the coaches truly and fully believe that the top QBs available at 2 (likely Maye and Daniels) aren't good enough and don't have them graded highly at all, then sure we can trade back. That's especially true if they do have a high grade on someone like Nix or McCarthy who would probably be available later in the 1st. Now...a caveat to that caveat. If they DO trade back in that scenario...they damn well better be right, because we probably won't be picking this high again soon, especially in a top notch QB class. So if they pass on one of Williams, Maye, or Daniels and the guy ends up a stud then that's a huge scarlet L that's going to be tattooed on the foreheads of our FO and coaching staff for eternity. 

Edited February 9 by mistertim

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, Ghost of said:

One bit of apology here, I wrongly said the Skins picked Husak over Brady and while that is not technically true (he was selected after Brady) the Skins did end up selecting a late round QB (at some point in the draft) instead of selecting Brady anywhere between Rounds 3-5. My bad.

That same charge applies to the whole NFL including the Patriots. 

31 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

 

It'll be Maye. And I will be really happy.

This is where I am at. But if the decision makers decide Daniels is the guy I would be completely fine with that as well. 
 

I think it’s going to be Maye though. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I didn't really have any specific poster in mind, I just know that it seems like every year there's a group of people who get gung-ho about trading down, regardless of the situation. That's why I called it ideological vs practical.

 

I guess the fascination/obsession with trading down just misses me. I get that we have holes, but literally every team in the NFL has them. We're not some outlier. And you have to take the circumstances into account. This year we 1) have no QB and 2) have the #2 overall pick in a very strong QB class.

 

Given those facts, it seems ludicrous to me to pass up on drafting a potential stud who could end up being our franchise QB for the next decade or more so we can get a few extra picks who would be statistically more likely to end up as moderate starters or special team players (depending on the round) at other positions vs stars.

 

 

I think what makes this topic so hot for me.  Is for many of us, we've been waiting forever for that shot to draft super high in a touted QB draft.  It never seems to happen.  Year after year, I am jealous watching other Qb starved teams having a shot to take a QB high and not us.  But finally, it happens to us!!!!  Wow.  Cool.

 

And it happens at the perfect time.  A team in the need for a reset.  New GM.  New owner.  New Coach.  The seas have parted perfectly.

 

And yet some still want to trade down.  Granted its a vocal minority.  And to each their own.  But to me it sort of shocks me that some fans haven't felt that QB angst over the years the same way -- and draft position is a big part of that angst for me and so many others.  It also shocks me that some miss that if we keep missing on the QB spot we will simply not be a big boy NFL team.   We've have good rosters with "meh" Qb play.  What does that mean?  See the current Atlanta Falcons.  I can't stand the idea that our goal is to be like them.  

Edited February 9 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

18 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I'd root for Vladamir Putin if he were a Commander

 

He'd be a dual-sport athlete like Bo or Deion... impressive!

 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

 

[rumplestilskin]

Anyone know who is throwing/not throwing at the combine?  It would be fun to watch that duel if they all throw but I doubt they will.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

Something I was actually wrong about with Maye, that I thought after just watching a few games vs. later watching real cutups and focusing on him, is that I believed he was mostly a pocket guy who did well within a system but didn't really have much strength in improvising or going off-script. He actually does. He's not on the level of Williams, but he absolutely can pull rabbits out of hats at times as well as make plenty of off-platform throws at odd arm angles.