The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KDawg]

54 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Woh. At first I was like "yaaawn, boring, the trend line is obvious and the variance is so small"...until we get to 2022 and 2023. Talk about difference in severity of sacks. Caleb's look like drive killers while Maye and Daniels have 2 years of data showing some of their sacks are probably really close to the LoS. I'm guessing they were getting sacked as they were figuring out if it was a tuck and run or not.

Just watching their games supports this. Daniels looks to run really quick and moves towards the LoS. Maye isn’t trying to run around, when he bails he typically either bails into a DL a yard or two down the field or looks for any green grass, he’s not trying to create from nothing.

 

Williams is going to lose yards on sacks. His super power is working off schedule. When you have a guy like that it means you’re going to have some plays that save the game… but also times you’re going to have plays that end them.

 

I almost wish these guys would suit up for the UFL for a game each in order to see how they play against pro competition (even sun NFL pro…) but the business angle would never allow that.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, ntotoro said:

If the pick was lower half of the top-10 or even worse, I'd say roll with Sam and draft someone later.

 

A #2 pick... you can't pass up QB at that spot. The team has a ton of picks and a ton of cap. They can afford some FA's in other spots and this "recalibration" will take more than one season, anyway. I don't want to see this team pick this high again for a long, long time.

Oh, I don't mind. People act like this is the worst, it is absolutely not the worst, the worst is 1993-2022, where we were pretty damn consistently in the bottom 20th to 35 percentile of the league, typically winning between 25% and 45% of our games but never, ever bad enough for the #1 pick only once bad enough for a top 2 pick until this year, and usually sitting between 4th and 15th, and usually timing our worst seasons for terrible QB drafts (only our 2003 stands out as an exception to that but we botched that opportunity with the Boonell trade). That is the worst case scenario. Bad enough to be utterly irrelevant 75% of their seasons, and largely irrelevant the other 25%. 

 

This is ideal. If you're gonna suck, bottom out, pick that QB, and move forward, and if you pick a bust, try again.

 

You know what was worse than the '23 season? None of the prior 29 seasons. None. Because the prior 29 seasons largely offered us no hope during the season or after. This one offered us hope during AND after. 

 

I find it odd that people can't see that. Did you guys actually enjoy the utter horse ---- that was 1993-2022? Honestly? Any of that? The utter hopelessness of that? I found that era infinitely worse than this bottoming out season. When you have a great QB class, and you don't have a QB, what we did this year was 1000% ideal. If we draft a bust in April, I am 1000% behind tanking in '25 (the '25 class appears to stink, so tanking in '24 aint helpful). 

[BayouBrave86]

Fields is absolute TRASH. He has legit accuracy issues. So depressing if that bum is brought to Washington. 

[Tyler Spiers]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's an operative point for those that prefer to spend money on a veteran.  it's actually easier to build around a rookie cheap QB.

 

If we for example sign Kirk for 40 million or pay Justin or whateever, that cap space is going fast.

I can't believe that Kirk Cousins is still going to get 40 million. Not only can he not win the big pressure games, he can't even get anywhere close to the playoffs. And on top of that, he's a bit of a weirdo. Anyone who gives this guy a huge contract after the huge injury at his age is just asking to be fired. It's actually one of the best moves Snyder made not paying this guy. Now if you could get him at 10 mill per year on a 2 year contract to groom the new rookie or be a backup, I'd be down, but please don't let this guy keep getting these huge paychecks.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

I had been a big fan of Maye as my choice for a while, but very in on Daniels now, and Kiper captures my sentiment here pretty well. Maye had 4 really bad games against his top competition, where they applied a lot of pressure and his accuracy vanished. Daniels also played against top competition, got a lot of pressure, but he handled the pressure almost flawlessly - either running, finding the open receiver and hitting them with accuracy, or throwing it away.

Simple fact: Among the top 3 QBs, Daniels had the highest accuracy and lowest "turnover worthy play" percentage, by far. This is over two years also, not just one. Summarized, against top defenses, JD took much better care of the ball and still put up the numbers and points, whereas both CW and DM had serious struggles when they played good defenses. This reason puts JD as my pick at #2 overall.
 

I get it, we are projecting the younger, less experienced guy, to grow into the same production as the older guy. But its not a guarantee. Whereas Daniels HAS already grown into that mature QB level. Its not just projections though, which are hard no matter who we're looking at. Maye's flaws are ones that tend to be deal breakers in the NFL. When he gets pressured, like Howell did all year, his accuracy disappears and he throws bad balls, bad decisions. When Daniels gets pressured, he stays calm, and makes good decisions - pass, run or throw it away. This may or may not be just experience, but it may speak more to their overall inherent ability and personality. Hard to predict, which is why NFL minds get it wrong so often.

Edited February 7 by WashingtonRedWolves

[clskinsfan]

Sam Howell is trending on Twitter right now. I am like what the **** is going here? This is what started it.   

 

 

I am ALL IN. Get me a second for Howell and I will do Jumping Jacks nude at the 50 yard line on opening day.

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Sam Howell is trending on Twitter right now. I am like what the **** is going here? This is what started it.   

 

 

I am ALL IN. Get me a second for Howell and I will do Jumping Jacks nude at the 50 yard line on opening day.

I was in with this trade until you added that note at the end. Now I want nothing to do with it. 

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, Tyler Spiers said:

I can't believe that Kirk Cousins is still going to get 40 million. Not only can he not win the big pressure games, he can't even get anywhere close to the playoffs. And on top of that, he's a bit of a weirdo. Anyone who gives this guy a huge contract after the huge injury at his age is just asking to be fired. It's actually one of the best moves Snyder made not paying this guy. Now if you could get him at 10 mill per year on a 2 year contract to groom the new rookie or be a backup, I'd be down, but please don't let this guy keep getting these huge paychecks.

 

I agree Dan Snyder's best move is not paying Kirk because it was a plot line among many IMO that likely led to the sale.  Kirk leaving followed by having the worst QBR QB play in the league.  the team mostly sucked.  Not saying losing Kirk was all of it but nothing beats having the worst Qb play in the league if you want to be bad.

 

So for me this move followed by chasing Trent out the door -- in both cases for almost zero compensation -- i do think was one of the many decisions that led to the sale.  If the team was good, i think Dan might have held on some more at a minimum.

Edited February 7 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

A 2nd for Howell? Id drive him to Dulles myself.

[Thinking Skins]

Here's an updated version of my post on twitter based on more QBs, in particular I wanted to see how Spencer Rattler did, because I was hearing his name coming up a lot as somebody who looked good before getting injured. 

 

It may not be readable any more because of the number of people I included. 

 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

 

get that 2nd back from the howell trade

Edited February 7 by WashingtonRedWolves

[JamesMadisonSkins]

9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

A 2nd for Howell? Id drive him to Dulles myself.

 

At first I thought, that's an insane value and return for Howell. Then it got me thinking about the value of QB in this league, and that Sam proved he can "play well" and maybe some folks would value a high-end young back-up like Howell at that level. KOC worked with Cousins, so he's familiar with the mid-round QB growth trajectory. 

 

But also, it does make sense that we'd kick the tires on a Howell trade. Presuming we draft a rookie QB at #2, we'll likely want to pair them with a veteran backup QB, not a 3rd year guy like Howell. So from a roster-building standpoint it makes sense that our QB room next year would be, say, Maye + veteran QB + Fromm. But I also don't know what the veteran backup market is like in FA outside of Brissett. Would you really want your backup QB to a rookie be Colt McCoy? I feel like you'd want it to be someone that would actually push the rookie in camp for the starting position. Howell IS that right now, but if you can get a solid return for him it would make a ton of sense.

[Skinsinparadise]

The way Howell faded at the end of the season. Only 2 years left on his rookie contract.  He doesn't have measurable that are exciting.   He doesn't scream to be as a dude that would bring back a 2nd rounder. 

[mh86]

Getting a second for Howell is about as likely as the bears fans thinking they can get a first for fields.

[clskinsfan]

20 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

 

get that 2nd back from the howell trade

I am not even sure Fields is much better than Howell at this point? Why would we make this trade?

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, triggered said:

And if they trade back, we get 2 #1's next year enough to get a QB if Howell doesn't pay off.

Next year's QB class is ---, more akin to '19 and '22, then to '24, '23, '21, '20, 18 and '17. A '25 1st is highly unlikely to allow you to acquire a QB remotely close to the value of Maye, Daniels or the long shot of falling to us of Williams. 

[BleedBNG]

41 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

 

get that 2nd back from the howell trade

Before I wasn't familiar with NFL Notifications but now I know they're just full of crap. With or without any source.

[SkinsFTW]

21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Why would we make this trade?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I had been a big fan of Maye as my choice for a while, but very in on Daniels now, and Kiper captures my sentiment here pretty well. Maye had 4 really bad games against his top competition, where they applied a lot of pressure and his accuracy vanished.

 

Maye's willingness to shatter his own mechanics are exacerbated vs better D's that can bring pressure. It makes him do the off platform stuff more often and while he can complete some passes doing that here and there, only Mahomie and probably Williams are capable of doing that in high volume and not being disaster factories.

 

Maye is going to need to spend a ton of offseasons really dialing in the consistency of his mechanics, and make the devotion on the field to revert back to them rather than freewheel in order to prevent the accompanying dropoff in accuracy.

 

If he works hard it is fixable and the boost he will see to his accuracy from consistent mechanics will be noticeable. It will be mandatory learning for him as he will be an INT machine in the NFL if he does what he has been doing at the college level.

[Warhead36]

That twitter account is complete garbage. Pay it no mind.

[El Mexican]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree Dan Snyder's best move is not paying Kirk because it was a plot line among many IMO that likely led to the sale.  Kirk leaving followed by having the worst QBR QB play in the league.  the team mostly sucked.  Not saying losing Kirk was all of it but nothing beats having the worst Qb play in the league if you want to be bad.

 

So for me this move followed by chasing Trent out the door -- in both cases for almost zero compensation -- i do think was one of the many decisions that led to the sale.  If the team was good, i think Dan might have held on some more at a minimum.

 

More like a huge mistake. KC leaving was a byproduct the power struggle between Scot McCloughan and Bruce Allen.

We all know how that turned out. Bruce backed RGIII, hand-picked by Snyder. Scot wanted to pay big bucks to KC bc the guy had demonstrated he was good to very good at QB.

 

Arguably, KC went on to have a better career than RGIII. 

 

In retrospect, yet another mistake by our FO guys.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

From what I gather from Keim and Peters and Quinn flat out said this -- they haven't even dived into the QBs yet.  But somehow random people on the Internet know what they plan to do?

[Andre The Giant]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, El Mexican said:

 

More like a huge mistake. KC leaving was a byproduct the power struggle between Scot McCloughan and Bruce Allen.

We all know how that turned out. Bruce backed RGIII, hand-picked by Snyder. Scot wanted to pay big bucks to KC bc the guy had demonstrated he was good to very good at QB.

 

Arguably, KC went on to have a better career than RGIII. 

 

In retrospect, yet another mistake by our FO guys.

 

 

 

I was basically saying the same thing.  I just framed the mistake as a good thing -- losing the battle to win the war becuase all these mishaps contributed to Dan selling.  Dan selling is the ultimate victory.