The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Kalu44]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Trey Lance had basically one year of experience. 

 

Maybe he learned his lesson.

 

Edited April 12 by Kalu44

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, Kalu44 said:

 

Maybe he learned his lesson.

 

Sure. Could be a few possible lessons.

 

- Don't become too enamored by uber athletic running guys

- Be cautious about drafting guys with a tiny amount of starting experience

- Be cautious about drafting guys who played in small school conferences against mostly inferior opponents

 

Maybe a combination of all of them. Who knows.

[skinny21]

12 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

Taking this a step further, you could test college QB's pre-draft and provide a grade if this technology did develop into something useful.  Probably a while before that happens.

 

Years of testing before it solidified into a useful tool for evaluation.

Exactly right, and maybe I wasn’t clear earlier, but the idea of its utility as an evaluation tool is one of the two points I was making.  As for timing, who knows.  The two guys seemed to make a lot of progress in year 1 (and I’m sure there are other outfits), so who knows when they start taking orders, build out a staff/team, and how much that fast tracks the process.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some teams start using it as early as next draft cycle, but for it to become a widespread, heavily utilized tool, it could indeed be years off.  Things move fast though when NFL type money is involved, particularly when it comes to finding an edge.

 

 

@The Consigliere Isn’t Daniels 23?  My one caveat to your points (beyond the context I mentioned previously), is processing.  Given a baseline of reasonable arm talent, athleticism, personality, etc, I think processing becomes king.  With that said, I have a hard time believing FOs can make an accurate determination on that based on an extended meeting with a prospect… which is why I’m with you in the sense that Maye seems like a safer/cleaner pick given both the baseline stuff and the analytics.

 

Just to be clear, while my preference is Maye based on the process you’ve outlined quite well (including in previous posts), there’s a part of me that doesn’t care what they do.  I’m not going to grab a pitchfork if Peters/Quinn fail where the vast majority of the league fails year in and year out.  Perhaps I’m just feeling the glow of finally having competency at the top levels of our team.  And with that comes a bit of faith that this group will do their utmost to insulate/protect, develop and support whoever they end up with.  I might not be quite to the level Going Commando is on franchise guys being “made”, but I do believe its a huge piece of the puzzle.

I do get your stance though that not following the protocols, followed by failure would be a black mark.  I’m pretty forgiving by nature though. 🤷‍♂️

 

Sidenote:  I was blown away that McCarthy, at 17 or 18 told his recruiting class not to come if they were into partying/chasing girls.  I mean, that is such a boss move.

[Kalu44]

Mod question - i cannot seem to multi-quote a reply. I hit the + multi quote option, but  only 1 quote appears in the reply box. What am i doing wrong?

[RWJ]

13 days!  Count em'!  13 days until the draft.  Well, this could be our #2 overall pick for QB!  Surprise, surprise, surprise!   

 

 

 

[SoCalSkins]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Sure. Could be a few possible lessons.

 

- Don't become too enamored by uber athletic running guys

- Be cautious about drafting guys with a tiny amount of starting experience

- Be cautious about drafting guys who played in small school conferences against mostly inferior opponents

 

Maybe a combination of all of them. Who knows.

 

Or he thinks screw drafting a rookie all together. We could trade down to 4 with Arizona get Kyler, a 1 and 2 next year and maybe a 2 or 3 this year and draft MHJ. That gets you in a far more win now mode with experience than drafting Daniels does. 

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think part of it is the lake breakout stuff isn't as dramatic as you paint.   It's not as if he went from meh to great.  He went from good to great. I post here Daniels rookie season and the season before his last and Pickett's rookie season and season before last.

 

And if it really is crazy as you put it, why worry?  It won't happen.  Peters isn't a moron.  So if its a mornic move in your eyes, I'd sleep at night with no worries.

 

Personally I firmly want Maye at #2.  But am not in the camp that if they do it its nuts but if I did think it was nuts I wouldn't worry because even though i am not as authortative as some are here as to what's the right and wrong move -- I've read enough and heard enough about Peters that I know he's not an idiot.

 

 

I don't disagree, and I've made a point of mentioning that he hit the breakout age threshold his freshmen year, and he was always good at ASU and even at LSU. He was good, period. But his breakout, that brought him to the attention of the NFL as a legit first round prospect? He didn't come close to that until his age 23 season/5 year as a starter. May did it in his first year as a starter at age 20, that is what matters to me, Maye Broke out, HUGE, immediately, and leapt to the top of the ranks as a result. Daniels was a later day 2 to early day 3 pick for the vast bulk of his college career. The profiles aren't remotely close until Daniels finished a fifth chance at finally producing a season like Maye did in his very first year as a starter. The difference there, when you really note it is stark. Pickett and him aren't the same. Pickett was basically a meh college starter until his final year, rather than "good" like Daniels was, he was basically a UDFA, but the difference between Pickett his prior years and his final year is damn near identical to the scale difference between Daniels '19-'22, and Daniels '23, and that's where the analogy actually kind of works.

 

In terms of the moron piece. I've just seen far too many wise F.O.'s completely botch QB to believe that many are smart, at all at this, I think most range from lucky to stupid and little in-between.  Lance and Wilson over Fields was idiotic in '21, its still stupid now, even if all 3 busted to varying degrees. All those guys over Howell and Purdy in '22 was totally asinine, in '23 a majority of teams had Young ahead of Stroud. In '20 most of the teams picked Herbert apart, meanwhile Herbert's the best prospect since Luck in 2012 not named Mahomes, or Burrow....I just don't trust them at this and I think I have a mountain of data that suggests that they suck at this like everyone else. It's not that I think Peters is a moron, it's that I think his process, if it puts Daniels #2, is nonsense and stupid, period. You can't have Daniels #2 in my view and also have good process. It doesn't mean he is gonna miss or that Maye's gonna hit, it just means that the info that matters most in terms of why and how guys bust, and what should scare you off are clear here, and if we still come up with Daniels at the top of our process after all that...it says nothing good about Peters whose already worked at multiple spots where they've repeatedly blown QB evals (not that anyone is good at this, nobody is).....

Edited April 12 by The Consigliere

[skinny21]

8 minutes ago, Kalu44 said:

Mod question - i cannot seem to multi-quote a reply. I hit the + multi quote option, but  only 1 quote appears in the reply box. What am i doing wrong?

As in, you’re trying to quote multiple posts to reply to each one of them (ie putting them all into one post)?  If so, you should be able to hit the + on each post you want to reply to and then a box comes up to click on saying “Quote (x number of) posts”.  Of course I’m not sure how different devices operate (I’m on an iPad).

Edited April 12 by skinny21

[RandyHolt]

6 hours ago, MartinC said:

Rule changes to protect QBs certainly mean QBs don’t take hits to the head or below the knees like back in the day (well not nearly as much). But they absolutely still take a beating standing in making throws. Heck just think of some of the shots Sam Howell took last year.

 

Playing QB from within the pocket in the NFL is still a significant physical challenge.

F yeah.

 

I wonder what the math says. How frequently QBs take big hits on drop backs vs big hits taken on run/scrambles. Lets take injuries out since people get injured without being hit. The QB slide has certainly made it safer. Of course if they know how to slide. 

Edited April 12 by RandyHolt

[Kalu44]

2 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

As in, you’re trying to quote multiple posts to reply to each one of them (ie putting them all into one post)?  If so, you should be able to hit the + on each post and then a box comes up to click on saying “Quote (x number of) posts”.  Of course I’m not sure how different devices operate (I’m on an iPad).

 

No, just to be able to reply and have the previous posts show. This post is an example on how my original post (asking the question) doesn't show up, only your reply does.

[CommanderInTheRye]

Another mock with qbs going 1 thru 4.

 

This one with New England choosing JJ over Maye. I seriously doubt that happens...

 

 

 

 

Edited April 12 by CommanderInTheRye

[WashingtonRedWolves]

1 minute ago, RandyHolt said:

F yeah.

 

I wonder what the math says. How frequently QBs take big hits on drop backs vs big hits taken on run/scrambles. The QB slide has certainly made it safer. Of course if they know how to slide. 

That's what I was wondering from before with the major injury percentages. Seems to me that most big QB injuries happen in the pocket. Especially, for ACL/MCL, when they've got their leg planted and get twisted down or bent on the ground. Like Theismann and Smith's brutal career-enders. But like someone else said you see it in the throwing motion too when hands hit helmets too. Concussions from falling backward. It can happen to anyone, not just a runner

 

Does someone bracing for a hit while running have a better chance of surviving that hit unscathed than someone completely blindsided from a hit in the pocket?

[The Consigliere]

39 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

What argument? I was telling you what Dan Quinn said. I made no argument in that post. 

I'm referring to his take. 

[FrFan]

2024 NFL draft quarterback projections: Stats and more

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2
Mean Projection    0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)    49.2%

 

I'm shocked !

 

Last year they had Richardson with a bust rate of 80.5%

C.J Stroud bust : 45.4%

Bryce Young bust : 38.3%

Will Levis bust : 68.3%

 

Edited April 12 by FrFan

[The Consigliere]

34 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Exactly right, and maybe I wasn’t clear earlier, but the idea of its utility as an evaluation tool is one of the two points I was making.  As for timing, who knows.  The two guys seemed to make a lot of progress in year 1 (and I’m sure there are other outfits), so who knows when they start taking orders, build out a staff/team, and how much that fast tracks the process.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some teams start using it as early as next draft cycle, but for it to become a widespread, heavily utilized tool, it could indeed be years off.  Things move fast though when NFL type money is involved, particularly when it comes to finding an edge.

 

 

@The Consigliere Isn’t Daniels 23?  My one caveat to your points (beyond the context I mentioned previously), is processing.  Given a baseline of reasonable arm talent, athleticism, personality, etc, I think processing becomes king.  With that said, I have a hard time believing FOs can make an accurate determination on that based on an extended meeting with a prospect… which is why I’m with you in the sense that Maye seems like a safer/cleaner pick given both the baseline stuff and the analytics.

 

Just to be clear, while my preference is Maye based on the process you’ve outlined quite well (including in previous posts), there’s a part of me that doesn’t care what they do.  I’m not going to grab a pitchfork if Peters/Quinn fail where the vast majority of the league fails year in and year out.  Perhaps I’m just feeling the glow of finally having competency at the top levels of our team.  And with that comes a bit of faith that this group will do their utmost to insulate/protect, develop and support whoever they end up with.  I might not be quite to the level Going Commando is on franchise guys being “made”, but I do believe its a huge piece of the puzzle.

I do get your stance though that not following the protocols, followed by failure would be a black mark.  I’m pretty forgiving by nature though. 🤷‍♂️

 

Sidenote:  I was blown away that McCarthy, at 17 or 18 told his recruiting class not to come if they were into partying/chasing girls.  I mean, that is such a boss move.

You're right and thanks for the correction, he won't turn 24 until the last month of his rookie year. 

 

You're also right on the processing piece, but we also need to note, how skilled are we at testing for processing? The Big Purdy S2 Hypetrain derailed in '23 when Bryce Young's rocket blew up on the launchpad, and processing challenged Stroud put together the best rookie year since Marino '83. Do we really know if they're good, and in what ways it matters? I'm not sure or sold they've figured that out yet. I would agree that that, along with the ability to throw with anticipation and the production profile mental make up piece are several keys, processing is a huge one, more important than a rocket arm (a good enough arm is every bit as worth it as a rocket after all, you only really have to worry if it isn't good enough, howtizers might have been qualitatively more impactful than french 75's, but in the NFL, if you've got a cannon, or just a nice arm, either way, you're fine. 

 

I remain, worried. 

 

 

[Llevron]

Everyone in the NFL is bad at picking QBs but they are stupid if they don't agree with ME about this one. 

 

Hell of a hill! 

[mhd24]

I'm thinking if all of our desired targets (Kool-Aid, Darius Robinson, Morgan, Ladd) are gone at 36, we could have a trade up candidate for Edgerinn Cooper as teams would want LB1.  Green Bay at 41 desperately needs a LB for example.  Also, Nix might be there as well.

[DogofWar1]

5 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Everyone in the NFL is bad at picking QBs but they are stupid if they don't agree with ME about this one. 

 

Hell of a hill! 

 

Well maybe these NFL people should try hitting on their QB picks more.

 

That's what I do find funny about people dinging the analytics crowd.

 

Like, no one else has figured this **** out maybe some cold hard numbers will do better.

[Llevron]

2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

Well maybe these NFL people should try hitting on their QB picks more.

 

That's what I do find funny about people dinging the analytics crowd.

 

Like, no one else has figured this **** out maybe some cold hard numbers will do better.

 

Cold hard data would be able to go backwards, and show us exactly who we were missing. They would be able to point out Wilson, Brady and everyone else with certainty....if there was certainty. They Cant. Because there isnt any such thing. The problem with some in the analytic crowd is they cannot admit this, and find a balance between numbers and the other factors. There needs to be a balance. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

I don't disagree, and I've made a point of mentioning that he hit the breakout age threshold his freshmen year, and he was always good at ASU and even at LSU. He was good, period. But his breakout, that brought him to the attention of the NFL as a legit first round prospect? He didn't come close to that until his age 23 season/5 year as a starter. May did it in his first year as a starter at age 20, that is what matters to me, Maye Broke out, HUGE, immediately, and leapt to the top of the ranks as a result. Daniels was a later day 2 to early day 3 pick for the vast bulk of his college career. The profiles aren't remotely close until Daniels finished a fifth chance at finally producing a season like Maye did in his very first year as a starter. The difference there, when you really note it is stark. Pickett and him aren't the same. Pickett was basically a meh college starter until his final year, rather than "good" like Daniels was, he was basically a UDFA, but the difference between Pickett his prior years and his final year is damn near identical to the scale difference between Daniels '19-'22, and Daniels '23, and that's where the analogy actually kind of works.

 

 

I recall watching a little Daniels when I watching other prospects years back and what stuck in my head man is that dude fast.  I didn't really think much of it until this season when he blew up.    Is there a narrative for why he blew up this year?  Yeah its been posted to death.    You can believe it or not as for whether its meaningful.  But I know from other posts you don't seem to care much about context so I gather you wouldn't be a fan of combine interviews, narratives etc -- just stick to the numbers and ignore the rest.

 

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

In terms of the moron piece. I've just seen far too many wise F.O.'s completely botch QB to believe that many are smart, at all at this, I think most range from lucky to stupid and little in-between.  Lance and Wilson over Fields was idiotic in '21, its still stupid now, even if all 3 busted to varying degrees. All those guys over Howell and Purdy in '22 was totally asinine, in '23 a majority of teams had Young ahead of Stroud. In '20 most of the teams picked Herbert apart, meanwhile Herbert's the best prospect since Luck in 2012 not named Mahomes, or Burrow....I just don't trust them at this and I think I have a mountain of data that suggests that they suck at this like everyone else. It's not that I think Peters is a moron, it's that I think his process, if it puts Daniels #2, is nonsense and stupid, period. You can't have Daniels #2 in my view and also have good process. It doesn't mean he is gonna miss or that Maye's gonna hit, it just means that the info that matters most in terms of why and how guys bust, and what should scare you off are clear here, and if we still come up with Daniels at the top of our process after all that...it says nothing good about Peters whose already worked at multiple spots where they've repeatedly blown QB evals (not that anyone is good at this, nobody is).....

 

My point on this is the following.  If his process is nonsense and stupid than he's grossly incompetent.  

 

 No one has figured out how to dicipher college QBs to the pros.  Some have theories.  But heck even the PFF guys have said their anayltics have failed them on QBs so they are spitballing as much as anyone.

 

Now if you make the case that your spitball is just as good as Peters spitball.  OK.  But if you are suggesting YOUR criteria is the criteria that the NFL should use -- then it comes off very much like you should be running a FO if you think at a minimum you found the criteria that these teams need to use and if they fail they fail but at minimum you know the formula is right and context be damned.  

 

The football outsiders guy anayltics lead him to Daniels being the better pick.  the PFF guys prefer Maye but they don't find picking Daniels crazy.  Sharp doesn't come off high on Maye, he was the first dude in a mock that I recall that dropped him out of the top 10.  So its not like the anaylitcs types are all rallying behind your take.

 

Very few people whether its draft media, anayltics types, leaks from scouts and coaches agree with you that this is a slam dunk decision and it has to be Maye to the extent that picking Daniels is crazy.

 

If I had to sum it up, just from my reading.

 

A. Coaches prefer Daniels

B.  Scouts-FO are mixed between the two but I get the vibe lean Daniels

C.  Some draft geeks say it should be Maye but Daniels wouldn't be crazy

D.  Some draft geeks say it should be Daniels but Maye wouldn't be crazy

E.  Some draft geeks say it should be one or the other and the alternative is crazy.

 

You are in category E.  I am in category C.  Very few people are in category E, I'd guess maybe 3% of so among my readings-tracking of draft takes, much of which I posted on this thread.  You are in the big time outlier category.  Doesn't mean the outlier can't end up right.  I've been in a big time outlier position on issues before but when i am going that far against the grain it at least crosses my mind that the masses maybe right and I might be wrong even when I stick to my guns.

Edited April 12 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

54 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

Or he thinks screw drafting a rookie all together. We could trade down to 4 with Arizona get Kyler, a 1 and 2 next year and maybe a 2 or 3 this year and draft MHJ. That gets you in a far more win now mode with experience than drafting Daniels does.

 

That would probably get Kingsbury to quit on the spot.

[SoCalSkins]

5 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

That would probably get Kingsbury to quit on the spot.

 

He's already quiet quitting and waiting to go back to the college game. Once Caleb was off the table, he tore up his Magic Johnson poster and checked out.

[Warhead36]

“Daniels is a better fit for Kk” is awful and lazy analysis. 

[FootballZombie]

37 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Last year they had Richardson with a bust rate of 80.5%

C.J Stroud bust : 45.4%

Bryce Young bust : 38.3%

Will Levis bust : 68.3%

 

 

Dang

 

Bust rates are much lower this year. Testament to the crop of QBs.

 

 

That 80% bust rate on rich is brutal tho. Dude has all the physical talent in the world but that don't mean much if your never gonna realize your potential.

[illone]

The part that gets missed by most evaluators is the mental side of the game.

 

Very hard to determine the mental makeup of another human being hence why the Wonderlic and S2  Cognition tests produce inconsistent results.

 

Dan Quinn has referenced it a few times in different interviews, and not just with QB.

 

As with ANY job interview with big dollars on the line, you only get to see the mask, not the real person. Probably why these in-person interviews are so important in that you are trying to dissolve as much of the mask as possible and get a glimpse of the guys soul.  What makes him tick. What's important to him. Why does he want to be great (if at all?).

 

Throw in the fact that people change over time and you have yourself a nearly impossible psychological riddle to solve.

 

It's the human element that will probably remain a mystery forever.